SEQH Capital Research

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Wed, 11 Nov 2026 23:15:29 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 033 · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

CoreWeave revived the AI trade, and once again the gains went to compute and networking, not to power. CoreWeave rose about 24% after raising its revenue outlook. It also said it expects about $9B in customer prepayments over the next three months and doesn’t plan to take on more expensive debt through 2027. Optics rose +10.12%, with AAOI +15.6% and LITE +10.7%. MU rose +11.9% and the SOX +5.66%. The nuclear basket rose only +1.07%. CEG rose +2.60% and stayed above its pre-Google-deal close.

The Nasdaq rose +1.60% and erased its post-election losses. The S&P rose +1.31%, the Dow +0.49%, and the VIX fell −10% to 17.49. The bond market was closed for Veterans Day; the 10-yr’s only print was 5.00%, a nominal level. NVDA rose +2.9%, snapping a two-day losing streak, but it is still down about 12–14% in November.

Three takeaways

This is the third time the AI rebound has skipped power. On 10/19, 10/26 and now 11/11, optics beat the nuclear basket by about 3–9 points when the AI trade rose. Today the gap was 10.1% against 1.1%. CoreWeave’s news eased worries about how AI is financed, and the market’s first move was back into chips and optics. Bloom Energy (+16% midday) was the only power name to get a clear lift.
Since Thursday’s close, the nuclear basket is +16.8%. All names are still well above last Thursday’s lows, and the basket is −21.0% below its 10/5 close. The ranking held for a twenty-seventh session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~+22%, BWXT ~−93%, LEU ~−235%, CCJ ~−237%, UEC ~−279%, OKLO ~−392%, SMR ~−721%.
Physical uranium keeps easing. NAV is $21.89, down 1.6% from its 10/30 peak, and implied spot is about $91.24/lb. The SPUT discount was −15.86% on Tuesday and is about −15.3% today (estimate).

Key numbers

Nuclear basket +1.07% · S&P +1.31% · Nasdaq +1.60% · Optics +10.12% · SOX +5.66%
CoreWeave about +24% · MU +11.89% · MRVL +9.33% · NVDA +2.87%
CEG $274.73 (+2.60%), 2.7% above its 10/5 close
SPUT NAV $21.89 (Tuesday data). Implied spot ~$91.24/lb. Discount −15.86%
LITE–MRVL deal spread 17.2% · VIX 17.49 · Bond market closed

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,486.49 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 7,619.38 (+1.31%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,466.19 (+1.60%), back above its post-election level
Russell 2000 2,846.26 (+0.88%)
CoreWeave:
- Shares rose about 24% after the company raised its full-year revenue outlook.
- It expects about $9B in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months.
- It said it doesn’t plan to take on more expensive debt through 2027.
Chips:
- The SOX rose +5.66%. MU rose +11.89% to $811.30, and TSM +4.25%.
- NVDA rose +2.87% to $173.73, but is still down about 12–14% in November.
- Nebius rose about 15% early in the session.
Power: Bloom Energy rose about 16% by midday. XLU +0.21%, VST +1.73%, NRG +0.40%, GE Vernova +1.41%.
Rates: the bond market was closed for Veterans Day. The 10-yr’s only print was 5.00%, a nominal level after Tuesday’s hot CPI.
Volatility: VIX closed at 17.49 (−10.1%).
Oil and gold: December WTI was about $86.45 (+0.5%), and gold about $3,994 (−0.9%).

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

CEG $274.73, +2.60%.
- Range $267.81–$276.67. Its low came within 19 cents of the 10/5 close ($267.62), and it held above it.
- YTD −22.2%.
OKLO $25.86, +3.07%.
- It is +39.6% from last Thursday’s low. YTD −64.0%.
SMR $5.23, +0.19%.
- It opened at $5.52 (+5.7%) and gave it all back, closing near its $5.18 low.
- YTD −63.1%.
BWXT $125.68, −0.76%.
- It opened at $128.50 and faded. It was the only basket name to finish down.
- YTD −27.3%.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

LEU $112.17, +2.09%. It traded up to $117.14 intraday. YTD −53.8%.
CCJ $74.32, +1.99%. YTD −18.8%.
UEC $7.23, +0.84%. Volume was about 0.6× its 50-day average. YTD −38.1%.
URA $33.64, +1.48%. YTD −21.3%.

SPUT

Tuesday 11/10 print:
- NAV $21.89 (−0.12%). Discount −15.86%, matching our −16.0% estimate.
- Implied spot about $91.24/lb, down from $92.74 on 10/30.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +0.65% to $18.54. If NAV held at $21.89, the discount would be about −15.3%(our estimate).
What this means: NAV has fallen for five of the last six prints, from $22.25 to $21.89 (−1.6%). The move is small. But the “physical holds while the equities fall” pattern from October is fading, and the discount is still near the widest in our log.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

AAOI $55.86, +15.60%. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +60.2%.
LITE $648.06, +10.67%.
- YTD +75.8%.
- Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $168.80 close = $759.60 of implied value. LITE closed 17.2% below that, narrower than Tuesday’s 18.7%.
COHR $234.51, +9.25%. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +27.1%.
CRDO $141.41, +8.94%. YTD −1.7%.
CIEN $296.04, +8.80%. YTD +26.6%.
GLW $120.46, +7.43%. YTD +37.6%.
MRVL $168.80, +9.33%.
The pattern: every optics name rose 7–16% on above-average volume. CoreWeave’s comments eased concerns about how AI spending gets financed, and the market went straight to AI networking.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 11/11
Tue 11/17: NVDA Q3
December FOMC: a hike is still on the table after October CPI
Levels to watch: last Thursday’s lows (OKLO $18.53, SMR $4.28, LEU $84.86, CCJ $66.06, UEC $6.12, BWXT $112.55)

06 · Desk Read

i. When AI sentiment improves, power isn’t where the money goes first. Three times now, an AI-positive catalyst (Nvidia’s memory standard on 10/19, Anthropic’s S-1 on 10/26, CoreWeave today) lifted optics and chips far more than the nuclear basket. CoreWeave’s news was about financing: prepayments and no more expensive debt. That helps the compute layer directly. For nuclear, the demand it implies is years away and runs through power contracts. Today’s gap (+10.1% for optics against +1.1% for nuclear) is the widest of the three.

ii. CEG held its level. On Tuesday CEG pulled back to within 14 cents of its 10/5 close. Today its low came within 19 cents of that level again, and it rallied 2.6%. Its contracted, federally financed growth (discussed in Edition 031) is the main difference between CEG and the rest of the basket, and its chart reflects that. It is the only tracked name holding above its pre-deal close.

iii. Physical uranium is easing at the margin. NAV is down 1.6% from its 10/30 peak, and implied spot has moved from $92.74 to $91.24. The SPUT discount is still near its widest. That makes the October divergence less clear-cut: physical uranium is no longer clearly stronger than the equities. If NAV keeps slipping, the fuel names lose the support of a rising commodity under them.

Corrections

Edition 032 (11/10) closes: the finals were slightly different: CCJ $72.87 (−3.32%), LEU $109.87 (−6.37%), OKLO $25.09 (−6.52%), BWXT $126.64 (−1.05%). The basket was unchanged at −4.17%.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.

The 2027 Nuclear Watch List: Five Names Almost Nobody Is Covering

SEQH Capital Research — Wed, 11 Nov 2026 00:15:36 GMT

The 2027 Nuclear Watch List: Five Names Almost Nobody Is Covering

SEQH Capital Research · Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026

Everyone has a view on $OKLO, $SMR, $LEU and $NNE. Almost nobody has one on the five companies below. Each sits in a part of the nuclear buildout with a real gap: domestic uranium supply, the cost of a reactor, waste treatment, project development, and permanent disposal. Together they are worth about $860M at Tuesday’s prices. That is a little over a quarter of the $3.13B in cash $OKLO reported for Q3.

All five are small, early and risky. Three of them disclose going-concern doubt in their own filings. That is part of why the market has stopped paying attention, and it is why each one needs to be underwritten from the filings rather than from the headlines. This report introduces the five and sets out what we know, what has to happen, and what could break each story. Our full model and analysis on each company follows.

How we picked them

Listed and tradable today. No private companies, and no SPACs that haven’t closed yet.
Small. Every name is under about $330M in market value.
In a real gap. Each addresses a bottleneck the reactor story depends on, not another reactor design competing for the same headlines.
Under-followed. Thin trading, new listings, or stocks that have fallen so far the crowd has left.
Left out on purpose: the well-covered leaders ($OKLO, $SMR, $LEU, $BWXT, $LTBR) and the names that already have a following in small-cap nuclear ($ASPI, $NNE).

1. Eagle Nuclear Energy ($NUCL): the biggest conventional uranium deposit nobody is talking about

The gap: US reactors need about 50M lbs of uranium a year, and almost none of it is mined here. The domestic supply story has been about in-situ recovery in Wyoming and Texas. Conventional, near-surface deposits have been ignored.

What it has:

The Aurora deposit in southeastern Oregon: 32.75M lbs indicated and 4.98M lbs inferred, under an S-K 1300 technical report. The company describes it as the largest conventional measured and indicated uranium deposit in the US. Next door is the Cordex deposit, which Eagle believes can add to that.
A proprietary small modular reactor program. In June 2026 it hired Tensor Medium for AI-based reactor modeling. No design specifications or timeline have been published.
$25.5M of cash and no interest-bearing debt at Aug 31, 2026.

Where it stands:

Public since Feb 25, 2026, through a SPAC merger with Spring Valley Acquisition Corp. II.
Permit applications filed with the BLM and Oregon DOGAMI in April 2026. Environmental baseline work started in May. Drilling waits on Oregon state approvals.
A pre-feasibility study is targeted for the second half of 2027, contingent on those approvals.
Added to the Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF ($URNJ) in June, and to the index behind the Global X Uranium ETF ($URA) in August.

The number that matters: At $3.80 on Nov 10 (about $115M market value), and net of Aug 31 cash, the market is paying roughly $2.70 per pound of indicated resource. That is our calculation, not a company figure.

What could break it: Oregon permitting is the whole story for the next 12 months. There is no economic study yet, and the reactor program has no published design. The stock is down from a 52-week high of $14.22.

2. Deep Fission ($FISN): putting the reactor a mile underground

The gap: The cost of a reactor is mostly the building around it: the containment structure, the site work, the security perimeter. Deep Fission’s design removes most of that by placing a pressurized water reactor at the bottom of a borehole about a mile deep, using the rock as shielding.

What it has:

A design of about 15 MW per borehole, which the company says can be stacked to as much as 1.5 GW on a single site.
A place in the DOE Reactor Pilot Program, with its pilot site at the Great Plains Industrial Park in Parsons, Kansas. The prototype reactor canister arrived on site on July 7, 2026.
Non-binding letters of intent for up to 18.5 GW as of June 24, 2026. The largest is a 2 GW arrangement with Endeavour for its Edged data centers, with first reactors penciled in for 2029. Either side can walk away without penalty.
$93.0M of cash at June 30, 2026, after an IPO at $16 in June and an $80M private placement.

Where it stands:

It missed the DOE’s July 4, 2026 target for reaching criticality. Fuel is not expected on site before 2027, and the company is pointing to the first half of 2027 for its NRC commercial license application.
Q2 net loss was $31.0M, and operating cash use was $42.5M for the first half.
The shares traded between $2.03 and $2.73 on Nov 10, down about 85% from the IPO price. That puts the market value at roughly $120–160M, not far above the cash it held in June.

What could break it: The 10-Q discloses substantial doubt about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern, which points to more dilution. No borehole reactor has been licensed or built. The letters of intent carry no financing or construction obligations.

3. Perma-Fix Environmental ($PESI): the waste processor the buildout can’t skip

The gap: Every reactor, cleanup site and fuel facility produces radioactive and mixed waste that has to be treated before it can be disposed of. Very few licensed facilities in the US can do it. Perma-Fix runs several of them, and investors still tend to file it under environmental services.

What it has:

A role at the Hanford site in Washington. Perma-Fix Northwest takes liquid effluent from the Direct-Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) program and has started receiving DFLAW dry waste. Volumes are expected to rise as DFLAW ramps up, under an interim arrangement expected to last about 10 years.
A seat as one of three subcontract holders under a master contract with a ceiling of about $4.4B through 2041. The ceiling is shared, nothing has been awarded to Perma-Fix under it yet, and task orders are not guaranteed.
A second-generation PFAS destruction unit, due to begin commissioning in Q4 2026 and to operate in the first half of 2027.

Where it stands (Q3, reported Nov 5):

Revenue $17.9M, up 2.8% year over year. Services rose 46% to $6.3M. Treatment fell 11.5% to $11.6M, after a Hanford waste stream was held up until late-August approvals.
Treatment backlog $19.6M, up 25% in the quarter and 65% from year-end 2025. Price increases began in August.
Net loss $3.5M. EBITDA was a loss of $3.1M for the quarter and $15.9M for nine months.
Cash $14.7M, with about $19.9M of total liquidity. The PNC credit facility has been extended to May 2030.
Market value about $327M at $15.40 on Nov 10.

What could break it: Hanford timelines have slipped before and can slip again. The company is losing money, and its 10-Q discloses going-concern doubt that management says has not been alleviated.

4. ONE Nuclear Energy ($ONEN): a developer, not another reactor design

The gap: Most listed small reactor companies sell a reactor design. Very few develop the projects those reactors need: the land, the grid connection, the water, the permits and the customer. ONE Nuclear’s model is to win sites and customers now with natural gas and battery storage, then add small modular reactors on the same platform.

What it has: a 5 GW Louisiana portfolio, announced Sept 10, 2026.

Project Amberjack: a multi-unit SMR campus targeting up to 1 GW, near the Mississippi River and a major transmission corridor. The company has site control and has started vendor-neutral reactor screening. It says plainly that this is not an NRC approval or license.
Project Cayman: a 2.88 GW natural gas plant with 700 MW / 2.88 GWh of battery storage and a potential data center campus.
Project Barracuda: a 1.2 GW gas plant with 300 MW / 1.2 GWh of storage, designed around about 1 GW of data center capacity.

Where it stands:

Public since Sept 24, 2026, through its merger with Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VII. The deal used a $1.0B base purchase price, which the filing says is not a valuation.
Before the merger closed, the operating company had $2,588 of cash at June 30 and a members’ deficit of $2.7M. Final cash proceeds from the closing have not been disclosed. A forward purchase agreement covering about 5.0M shares and an equity facility with B. Riley are its stated funding routes.
No reactor vendor, gas turbine supplier or data center customer has been named.
Market value about $179M at $1.65 on Nov 10.

What could break it: Funding. Every project is subject to financing that is not yet in place, the pre-merger financials carry going-concern language, and an equity facility usually means steady dilution.

5. Deep Isolation Nuclear ($DBHL): an answer to the question every reactor raises

The gap: The US holds about 95,000 metric tons of commercial spent fuel at plants in 28 states, adds about 2,000 tons a year, and still has no permanent repository. Deep Isolation’s approach is to put that waste in deep horizontal boreholes drilled with standard oil and gas equipment, rather than in one national mine.

What it has:

A full-scale, non-radioactive demonstration at the Deep Borehole Demonstration Center at Halliburton’s facility near Cameron, Texas. Collaborators include Halliburton, Amentum, NAC International, Occlusion Nuclear Solutions and Westinghouse.
A position in contracting with ARPA-E for up to $20M to field-test its Universal Canister System. The award has not been finalized.
Selection in July 2026 as the sole industrial partner on three DOE Project GENESIS grants led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of South Carolina.
$19.4M of cash at June 30, 2026, after an oversubscribed $33M private financing.

Where it stands:

Trading on the OTCQB since July 2026.
Q2 revenue was $1.3M, down from $1.6M, as 2025 projects finished. The net loss widened to $3.0M.
Market value about $98–104M at $1.70 on Nov 10, against a 52-week high of $9.00.

What could break it: No borehole disposal method has been licensed for spent fuel in the US, and the regulatory path runs through Washington, not the company. Revenue is small and falling, and the stock trades very thinly.

What comes next

Our full model and analysis on each of the five follows. For each company we will publish:

The cash runway, quarter by quarter, and how much new money it is likely to need
The milestones that actually change the value, with dates and the evidence behind each one
A base, fast and slow case for each timeline, built from how long comparable projects have really taken
The specific filings and events to watch through 2027

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Tue, 10 Nov 2026 21:15:39 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 032 · Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

This was the first pullback since last Thursday’s low, and it held. A hot October CPI report pushed the 10-yr up 12bp to 4.98%, after it briefly touched 5.02%. The nuclear basket fell −4.17%. Every name is still well above last Thursday’s lows, and the basket is still +15.5% from Thursday’s close. CEG gave back −3.02% and closed at $267.76, 14 cents above its pre-Google-deal close of $267.62. NVDA fell another −5.5%, and GE Vernova fell about 7% after SoftBank took a $3.7B charge on power equipment it had bought for U.S. AI data centers.

October CPI rose +0.4% m/m (+0.3% expected), and core rose +0.3% (+0.2% expected). Year-over-year figures weren’t published because of the October 2025 government shutdown. Fed Governor Waller said he would support at least a 25bp hike in December, and would consider 50bp. The S&P fell −0.38%, the Nasdaq −0.74% and the Dow −0.30%. Oil fell to its lowest since late August (WTI about $85.50) after President Trump said he would hold off on new strikes against Iran.

NVDA fell −5.5% to $168.80, on 3.4× its average volume, its lowest close since March. A shareholder lawsuit and an FBI inquiry followed reports involving the CEO and a former Megaspeed executive. NVDA is now −9.5% YTD.

Three takeaways

The pullback held well above Thursday’s lows. OKLO is +35% above its Thursday low, LEU +29%, SMR +22%, UEC +17%, BWXT +13% and CCJ +10%. Volume was below average (0.5–1.0×), which looks like profit-taking, not forced selling. That’s the kind of first pullback that would add confirmation, as we said Monday.
Higher rates hurt the developers again. The 10-yr rose 12bp, and OKLO (−6.5%), LEU (−6.4%) and UEC (−6.0%) fell the most. BWXT, a supplier with a contract backlog, fell only −1.0%. That’s the rate sensitivity we documented on 10/14–15, back after two weeks when AI capex mattered more.
The ranking held for a twenty-sixth session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~0%, BWXT ~−83%, LEU ~−254%, CCJ ~−263%, UEC ~−288%, OKLO ~−422%, SMR ~−724%.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket −4.17% today, +15.5% since Thursday’s close · S&P −0.38%
October CPI +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%. Both were 0.1pt above expectations
10-yr 4.98% (+12bp, intraday high 5.02%) · VIX 19.68
NVDA −5.53%, now −9.5% YTD · GE Vernova about −7%
CEG $267.76, against its 10/5 close of $267.62
SPUT discount −14.19% (Monday data). NAV fell −0.58% to $21.92. Implied spot ~$91.35/lb
Optics −3.05% · LITE–MRVL deal spread 18.7%

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,233.08 (−0.30%)
S&P 500 7,520.95 (−0.38%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,065.88 (−0.74%)
Russell 2000 2,820.17 (−0.73%)
CPI (October):
- Headline rose +0.4% m/m, against +0.3% expected. September was +0.6%.
- Core rose +0.3% m/m, against +0.2% expected.
- There are no year-over-year figures because of the 2025 shutdown.
Fed: Governor Waller said he would support at least a 25bp hike in December and would consider 50bp if core prices keep running at 0.3% or more.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.98% (+12bp), after trading as high as 5.02%.
Volatility: VIX closed at 19.68 (−1.2%).
NVDA: −5.53% to $168.80 on 3.4× average volume, its lowest close since 3/30.
- A shareholder lawsuit alleges the company misled investors about the CEO’s relationship with a former Megaspeed executive.
- President Trump said the FBI is looking into it.
- The stock is down about 18% in five sessions.
Chips: the SOX fell only −0.35%, and TSM rose +2.05%.
AI power equipment: GE Vernova fell about 7% after SoftBank disclosed a $3.7B charge on power-generation equipment it had bought for U.S. AI data centers.
Oil: WTI fell −1.5% to about $85.50 and Brent about −1.9% to $90.80, both the lowest since late August.
Power: XLU −0.14%, VST −2.08%, NRG −0.32%.
Sectors: money rotated out of AI stocks into defensive sectors such as healthcare.

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

CEG $267.76, −3.02%.
- Range $263.80–$273.30. Volume was about 0.7× its 50-day average. YTD −24.2%.
- It is now 14 cents above its 10/5 close.
OKLO $25.09, −6.54%.
- Range $24.85–$26.62. YTD −65.0%.
- It is +35.4% from Thursday’s low.
SMR $5.22, −4.04%. It is +22.0% from Thursday’s low. YTD −63.2%.
BWXT $126.74, −0.98%.
- Volume was about 0.5× average, the lightest in the group. It is +12.6% from Thursday’s low. YTD −26.7%.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

LEU $109.79, −6.43%.
- Range $107.95–$114.88. Volume was about 0.7× average. It is +29.4% from Thursday’s low. YTD −54.8%.
UEC $7.17, −5.97%. It is +17.1% from Thursday’s low. YTD −38.7%.
CCJ $72.85, −3.34%.
- It traded up to $75.42 at the open, then faded. It is +10.3% from Thursday’s low. YTD −20.4%.
URA $33.14, −3.49%. YTD −22.4%.

SPUT

Monday 11/9 print:
- NAV $21.92, down −0.58%, its largest one-day drop in our log.
- Discount −14.19%.
- Implied spot about $91.35/lb, down from the $92.74 peak on 10/30.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −2.07% to $18.42, their lowest close since 10/22. If NAV held at $21.92, the discount would be about −16.0% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $77.59/lb.
What this means: physical uranium is now slipping slightly. Implied spot is down about 1.5% from its peak in our log. The SPUT units are back near their lows while the equities sit 10–35% above theirs.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

CIEN $271.98, +0.98%. It was the only optics name to finish up. YTD +16.3%.
LITE $585.57, −1.78%.
- YTD +58.9%.
- Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $154.39 close = $694.76 of implied value. LITE closed 18.7% below that, the widest gap since the deal was announced.
CRDO $129.80, −2.33%. YTD −9.8%.
GLW $112.16, −3.27%. YTD +28.1%.
COHR $214.76, −4.63%. Volume was about 1.3× average. YTD +16.4%.
AAOI $48.32, −7.26%. YTD +38.6%.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 11/10
Tue 11/17: NVDA Q3
December FOMC: a hike is now openly on the table after CPI and Governor Waller’s comments
Levels to watch: Thursday’s lows (OKLO $18.53, SMR $4.28, LEU $84.86, CCJ $66.06, UEC $6.12, BWXT $112.55)

06 · Desk Read

i. The first pullback held up, on light volume. On Monday we said a pullback that holds well above Thursday’s lows would add confirmation. Today’s −4.2% came on below-average volume, and every name is still 10–35% above its Thursday low. One day doesn’t prove the low is in, but this is the shape we were looking for.

ii. With AI capex sentiment steadier, rates are driving these stocks again. For two weeks, AI capex sentiment and policy news drove the moves. Today a hot CPI report and a Fed governor talking about a possible 50bp hike lifted the 10-yr 12bp. The long-duration names fell the most: OKLO, LEU and UEC each lost about 6%. BWXT fell 1%. In this group, the rate channel works in both directions. CPI is now a December-hike question, and the developers are the most sensitive to it.

iii. GE Vernova’s drop is a reminder that power equipment is part of the same trade. SoftBank’s $3.7B charge on gas-turbine equipment for U.S. AI data centers is the first large write-down we’ve seen tied to the AI power buildout. GEV fell about 7%. Nuclear owners and operators held up better: CEG fell 3% and BWXT 1%. If the market starts asking whether power equipment bought for AI will actually be used, nuclear names with signed long-term contracts, like CEG’s 20-year PPAs, are more insulated than equipment suppliers.

Corrections

Edition 031 (11/9) used prints from about 3:57pm. The final closes were slightly different:
- Nuclear basket +8.80% (not +9.11%), and +20.5% over two days (not +20.9%).
- UEC $7.62, +10.12% (not +10.91%). OKLO $26.84 (+13.97%). SMR $5.44 (+7.09%). BWXT $127.99 (+7.09%). CEG $276.09 (+10.46%). LEU $117.34 (+12.18%).
- Optics +10.27% (not +10.42%). S&P 7,549.94 (+2.35%). NVDA $178.67 (−4.27%).
- With the final CEG close, its share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain was about +26%, the same as published.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Today’s prices were pulled at about 4:00pm ET and may differ slightly from the final closes. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Mon, 09 Nov 2026 21:45:38 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 031 · Monday, November 9, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

The rebound continued. The nuclear basket rose +9.11% after Friday’s +10.80% and is up +20.9% in two sessions. That takes it roughly back to where it closed on 10/30, before last week’s selloff. CEG rose +10.53% on its Q3 results. Adjusted EPS was $5.06 against $3.04 a year ago, it raised the midpoint of 2026 guidance, and it disclosed a conditional DOE loan commitment of up to $5B. CEG is now the only tracked name back above its 10/5 pre-Google-deal close. Optics rose +10.42% and the SOX +6.96%, even as NVDA fell −4.1% on a board investigation.

The broad market rose with it: S&P +2.42%, Dow +2.19% (+1,123 points) and Russell 2000 +3.44%. Oil fell about 3% to roughly $87, and the VIX dropped −22% to 19.90. Utilities rose to their highest close since August (XLU +1.65%). Power generators kept climbing: NRG +10.6% after announcing a $4B sale of six gas plants, VST +7.3%.

NVDA fell after its board opened a review into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. The board said it has no reason to believe company secrets or national security were harmed. The stock closed at its lowest level since April and is now −4.1% YTD.

Three takeaways

CEG’s quarter showed that its AI power demand is already under contract. Those contracts are:
- Amazon: 690 MW for 20 years at Calvert Cliffs.
- Google: about 890 MW of uprates for 20 years, plus a separate 15-year, 2,700 MW load-following agreement.
- A 270 MW, 20-year deal starting 2028.
It also has up to $5B in conditional DOE loans for uprates. The stock rose 10.5% and is +3.2% above its 10/5 close.
Thursday’s lows are now well behind us. No retest yet. Since Thursday’s lows: OKLO +45%, LEU +38%, SMR +27%, UEC +25%, CCJ +14%, BWXT +14%. The basket is still −18.2% below its 10/5 close.
The ranking held for a twenty-fifth session, and LEU moved past CCJ. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~+26%, BWXT ~−69%, LEU ~−195%, CCJ ~−218%, UEC ~−220%, OKLO ~−351%, SMR ~−654%.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket +9.11% today, +20.9% over two days · S&P +2.42%
CEG +10.53% · LEU +12.04% · OKLO +14.29% · UEC +10.91%
CEG Q3: adjusted EPS $5.06 (was $3.04). 2026 guidance $12.50–12.80, midpoint raised. DOE loan commitment of up to $5.0B
Optics +10.42% · SOX +6.96% · NVDA −4.09%
SPUT discount −16.05% (Friday data). Today’s estimate is about −14.8%
VIX 19.90 (−22%) · 10-yr 4.86% · WTI about $87

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,408 (+2.19%)
S&P 500 7,555 (+2.42%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,273 (+2.82%)
Russell 2000 2,849 (+3.44%)
Chips:
- The SOX rose +6.96%. AMD rose about 12%, AVGO about 8% and MU +6.28%. Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 4.9%.
- NVDA fell −4.09% to $179.00 on 3.6× average volume, its lowest close since 4/7. The drop followed the board’s review of reports that the CEO was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. NVDA reports Q3 on 11/17.
Oil: WTI fell about −3% to roughly $87.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.86%, flat.
Volatility: VIX closed at 19.90 (−22.4%).
Power:
- XLU rose +1.65% to its highest close since 8/19.
- NRG rose +10.6% after announcing a $4B sale of six gas plants.
- VST rose +7.3%. Fervo Energy rose about 23% on a geothermal deal with Google.

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

CEG $276.26, +10.53%.
- Range $247.00–$277.66. It traded as low as −1.2% before rallying to close near its high. Volume was about 1.3× its 50-day average. YTD −21.8%.
- It closed at its highest level since 10/14, and is 3.2% above its 10/5 close.
- Q3 results:
  - GAAP EPS was $5.19 and adjusted EPS $5.06, against $3.04 a year ago. There are 354M diluted shares after the Calpine deal.
  - 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was narrowed to $12.50–12.80, raising the midpoint for the second time this year.
  - Its nuclear fleet ran at a 97.2% capacity factor.
  - Contracts:
    - Amazon: a 20-year, 690 MW PPA at Calvert Cliffs, plus a 190 MW expansion planned for 2030–32.
    - Google: a 20-year deal covering about 890 MW of uprates across 11 units (the first uprate in 2028), plus a separate 15-year, 2,700 MW load-following agreement.
    - Another 20-year, 270 MW deal starting in 2028 with an unnamed customer.
  - A conditional DOE loan commitment of up to $5.0B for uprates: 30 years, at Treasuries + 0.375%.
  - It agreed to buy a 609 MW gas plant in Rhode Island for $715M.
OKLO $26.92, +14.29%.
- Range $22.73–$27.72. Volume was about 1.7× average. YTD −62.5%.
- It is +45.3% from Thursday’s low.
BWXT $128.19, +7.25%.
- It is 5.3% below its 10/5 close. YTD −25.9%.
SMR $5.46, +7.38%. YTD −61.5%.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

LEU $117.19, +12.04%.
- It reached $118.23 intraday and closed at its highest level since 10/15. It is +38.1% from Thursday’s low and back above $115.
- YTD −51.8%.
UEC $7.68, +10.91%. It is +25.4% from Thursday’s low. YTD −34.3%.
CCJ $75.37, +5.71%. It is +14.1% from Thursday’s low. YTD −17.7%.
URA $34.39, +6.34%. YTD −19.5%.

SPUT

Friday 11/6 print:
- NAV $22.05 (−0.05%). Discount −16.05%, matching our −16.1% estimate.
- Implied spot about $91.88/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.51% to $18.79. If NAV held at $22.05, the discount would be about −14.8%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.15/lb.
What this means: the uranium equities are up 11–38% from Thursday’s lows, while SPUT units are up only about 2%. The vehicle that holds physical uranium is lagging the equity rebound. That’s the reverse of the 10/27 rebound, when the vehicle led.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

COHR $224.58, +16.47%. Volume was about 1.8× average. YTD +21.7%.
CIEN $270.28, +11.05%. YTD +15.6%.
LITE $597.45, +10.93%.
- YTD +62.0%.
- Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $154.19 close = $693.86 of implied value. LITE closed 16.1% below that, narrower than Friday’s 18.0%.
CRDO $133.09, +10.44%. YTD −7.6%.
GLW $116.06, +9.36%. YTD +32.3%.
AAOI $52.27, +4.27%. YTD +49.7%.
MRVL $154.19, +9.20%.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 11/9
Earnings in our coverage: with CEG out, all six companies have now reported (CCJ, BWXT, LEU, SMR, OKLO, CEG). GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Tue 11/17: NVDA Q3
Levels to watch: Thursday’s lows (OKLO $18.53, SMR $4.28, LEU $84.86, CCJ $66.06, UEC $6.12, BWXT $112.55)
Dec FOMC: after last week’s jobs report, a hike is still a possibility

06 · Desk Read

i. CEG’s quarter answered last week’s policy scare with signed contracts. After the election, the market treated AI power demand as at risk from data-center permitting. CEG’s demand is already under contract: 20-year deals with Amazon and Google, a 2,700 MW load-following agreement, and a third 20-year deal. Its uprates come with up to $5B of conditional federal financing. The stock rose 10.5% and is the only tracked name back above its pre-Google-deal close. The market is paying for contracted, financed revenue.

ii. The basket is back where it started last week. Two sessions of +10.8% and +9.1% bring the basket back to about its 10/30 close. Last week’s −8.2% is erased. The washout-and-rebound pattern we described on Friday is holding, but there hasn’t been a retest yet. Thursday’s lows are now 14–45% below current prices. A pullback that holds well above them would add confirmation. A fast slide back toward them would undo it.

iii. Physical uranium hasn’t followed the equities back up. SPUT’s discount was −16.05% officially on Friday and is about −14.8% today (estimate), still near the record. NAV is flat at $22.05. On 10/27 the vehicle and physical uranium led the equities higher. This time the equities led and the vehicle lagged. That’s the gap to watch: either the SPUT units catch up, or the equity bounce fades back toward them.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Today’s prices were pulled at about 3:57pm ET and may differ from the final closes by a few cents. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

The Slowdown Test: What the Midterms Mean for Vistra, Constellation and the Nuclear Restarts

SEQH Capital Research — Sat, 07 Nov 2026 21:45:34 GMT

SEQH Capital Research · Research report · Draft, Nov 7, 2026

Model: SEQH_DataCenter_Slowdown_Model_v1.xlsx (paid subscribers)

Power stocks had their worst two days of the year right after the election. $VST fell 13.8% on Wednesday to $120.29. $CEG fell 6.7% to $245.72. Both kept falling on Thursday. The reasoning was simple: a Democratic Congress and a Democratic governor-elect in Texas mean a slower, more expensive data-center build, and less demand for the power these companies sell.

Vistra reported Friday morning, and its numbers gave the first real test of that reasoning. Constellation reports Monday. This report sets out how much of each company’s earnings a slower build actually reaches, using company filings and a simple model. It also explains why the three US nuclear restarts are mostly outside that risk.

The short version: in the near term, very little of either company’s earnings is exposed. Vistra has sold forward 98% of its 2027 output. The exposure is real, but it starts in 2028 and beyond, and it sits in the uncontracted megawatts, not in the contracted nuclear deals or the restarts.

1. What changed on Nov 3

Congress.

AP called both the House and the Senate for Democrats by Wednesday afternoon.
Final seat counts were still open at the time of writing.

Texas.

Gina Hinojosa won the governor’s race with about 53% to 46%, by unofficial count. She is the first Democrat elected governor since 1990.
In July she called for a moratorium on data centers “until a legislative session that puts Texans first.”
Texas inaugurations are held on the third Tuesday of January, which puts this one at Jan 19, 2027.

Other states.

New York already has a one-year statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers, imposed by Gov. Hochul in July.
Candidates in New Mexico and Ohio campaigned on moratoriums of their own.
We found no new state rule passed around the election itself.

The analysts.

KeyBanc’s Sophie Karp cut Vistra to Sector Weight on Wednesday and called the Texas result “a negative surprise for investors.”
Bank of America called Texas “the single most consequential election for [data centers], utilities and power this cycle,” as quoted by TIKR.

2. Texas was already slowing before the vote

The election didn’t start the Texas slowdown. The state had been tightening for three months. The timeline, checked against primary sources:

Aug 3: ERCOT stopped issuing “Batch Zero” large-load classification notices under the governor’s verification directive (market notice M-A080326-01). A large load in Texas is 75 MW or more under SB6.
Sept 18: the PUCT issued its final large-load interconnection rule (Project 58481). It requires $50,000 per MW of requested peak demand as financial security before studies begin, plus a $100,000 study fee, for loads of 75 MW or more.
Sept 21: Gov. Abbott ordered the TCEQ to stop issuing data-center permits until ERCOT and the Water Development Board finished their audits.
Dec 10: ERCOT’s target date for filing its audit of about 300 Batch Zero projects. The audit covers cost, on-site generation, water use, effects on neighbors and ownership.

Correction to our daily notes: earlier editions described the Aug 3 notice as a pause on energizing new data centers. It halted classification notices instead. The TCEQ permit stop started Sept 21; Oct 19 was the agency’s reporting deadline.

The size of what’s at stake. The governor’s August letter put ERCOT’s large-load queue at more than 474 GW, about 90% of it data centers. Peak demand in ERCOT is a small fraction of that. Most of the queue was never going to be built. The audit is about separating real projects from speculative ones, so a smaller queue is not by itself a smaller build.

3. Vistra: Friday’s answer

The quarter:

Ongoing adjusted EBITDA of $2,378M, up 50% from $1,581M.
Texas segment EBITDA of $1,227M, up 57% from $784M.
Texas made up 51.6% of Q3 adjusted EBITDA, up from 49.6% a year ago. Texas also produced about 45% of Vistra’s generation in Q2.

The guidance:

2026 adjusted EBITDA narrowed to $7.1–7.5B.
2027 initiated at $7.7–8.5B.
An extra $1.5B buyback, leaving about $2.5B authorized through 2028.
Share count about 339M after the Cogentrix purchase, which closed in October and added 5,496 MW across 10 plants.

The hedges are the core of the defense. As of Oct 30, Vistra had hedged about 100% of expected 2026 generation, 98% of 2027 and 78% of 2028.

What our model does with that. We take Vistra’s stated floor of more than 230 TWh of expected annual generation and apply the hedge percentages. That leaves:

2027: 4.6 TWh open to market prices. Each $1/MWh change moves EBITDA by about $4.6M. A $10/MWh drop costs about $46M, or 0.6% of the 2027 guidance midpoint, far inside the $800M-wide guidance range.
2028: 50.6 TWh open. Each $1/MWh change moves EBITDA by about $51M. A $15/MWh drop costs about $759M, or 9.4% of the 2027 midpoint, the nearest guidance figure we have.

These figures are deliberately crude. They treat every open megawatt-hour the same and ignore cost offsets and the link between gas and power prices. The point is the order of magnitude: a slowdown matters for 2028 and later, and barely touches 2027.

The contracted nuclear. About 3,376 MW of Vistra’s 6,448 MW nuclear fleet, or 52%, is now under 20-year deals with hyperscalers:

Amazon at Comanche Peak, Texas: 1,200 MW. Deliveries start in Q4 2027 and reach full capacity by 2032.
Meta at Perry and Davis-Besse: 2,176 MW of operating capacity, plus 433 MW of uprates. Deliveries start in late 2026 and reach the full amount by 2034.

On the Q2 call in August, CEO Jim Burke said: “We don’t see [Comanche Peak] being affected at this point.” The one Texas nuclear contract is with an existing plant and a signed buyer. It doesn’t depend on a new data-center permit.

What Friday didn’t answer. No new nuclear data-center deal was announced. Management pointed to more “potential transactions with large load facilities at our nuclear and natural gas plants.” Pro forma liquidity fell to about $5.4B from $8.9B after the Cogentrix payment, a preferred redemption and debt repayment.

4. Constellation: Monday’s setup

Constellation reports before the open on Monday, Nov 9, with the call at 9:00am ET.

Where it stands going in:

2026 adjusted EPS guidance is $11.50–12.50, raised from $11.00–12.00 with Q2 results on Aug 6.
Q2 adjusted EPS was $2.55, versus $1.91 a year earlier.
Consensus is about $3.90 for Q3 and about $12.12 for the full year. That is 12 cents above the guidance midpoint, so the bar is already set slightly high.

Scale.

The Calpine purchase closed Jan 7, 2026, taking the fleet to about 55 GW, about 22 GW of it nuclear.
The 606 MW Brazos Valley plant in Texas is being sold to LS Power for $860M, with closing expected by year-end, subject to DOJ approval.

Contracted vs uncontracted. Constellation says about 25% of its clean, firm output is under contract, and it targets about 30% by 2032. The hyperscaler deals are a smaller slice than the headlines suggest:

Microsoft at Crane: 835 MW, 20 years. This is a restart, so it is new output.
Meta at Clinton: 1,121 MW from June 2027.
Amazon at Calvert Cliffs: 690 MW, including a 190 MW uprate due 2030–32.
Google: 890 MW of uprates across 11 units, the first in 2028.
In total, existing nuclear under hyperscaler deals comes to about 1,600 MW, roughly 7% of nuclear capacity. The rest of the 25% comes from other contracts.

The sensitivity check. Constellation’s March outlook deck says each $1/MWh on uncontracted nuclear output is worth roughly $0.30 of 2029 EPS at the low end. We rebuilt that number from the outside:

About 183 TWh of nuclear output, 75% of it uncontracted, gives about 137 TWh.
After a simplified 21% tax rate and 357M diluted shares, each $1/MWh is worth about $0.30 a share.
That matches the company’s figure, so the simple volume-times-price logic holds.

What that implies. A lasting $10/MWh drop in the price of uncontracted nuclear output would cost about $3.04 a share a year. That is about a quarter of this year’s guidance midpoint. This is a long-run, unhedged figure; near-term hedging levels for 2027–28 are not in our sources. It is also the strongest argument for Constellation’s push to contract more output. Each 5 points of extra contracting cuts the hit from a $10 drop by about $0.20 a share.

What to check Monday:

Whether the 2026 range holds, or narrows toward the top as consensus implies.
Any new long-term contracts, and how management talks about demand after the election.
The Crane timeline. The company targets the second half of 2027; the NRC expects its final restart decision in 2027.
Any disclosure of hedging for 2027–28. That figure would let us run the same near-term test we ran on Vistra.

5. Why the restarts sit outside this risk

All three US restarts have a signed, creditworthy buyer and federal financing. None of them needs a new data-center approval to get paid.

Palisades (Holtec, Michigan, 800 MW):

Buyers: Wolverine takes two-thirds of the output and Hoosier one-third, under multi-decade contracts.
Financing: a DOE loan guarantee of up to $1.52B.
Status: fuel loading began Aug 30 and was halted when an assembly tilted in the core. The NRC approved its removal on Oct 13, and fuel was reloaded in October.
On Oct 29, Energy Secretary Wright said the plant “will be started in a few weeks.” Holtec has said it expects to restart ahead of its contract to supply power by March 2027.
It would be the first closed US reactor to return to service.

Crane / TMI-1 (Constellation, Pennsylvania, 835 MW):

Buyer: Microsoft, 20 years.
Financing: a $1B DOE loan, closed November 2025.
Status: the NRC issued a draft environmental assessment with a preliminary finding of no significant impact on June 9.
Target: second half of 2027. Brattle, as cited by World Nuclear News, puts the project cost at $1.6B.

Duane Arnold (NextEra, Iowa, 615 MW):

Buyer: Google, 25 years, with Central Iowa Power Cooperative taking about 50 MW.
Financing: a DOE loan of up to $1.9B, closed Sept 8, 2026.
Status: Iowa regulators approved the restart on June 18. The NRC expects to issue all three licensing approvals before January 2028.
Target: late 2028 or early 2029.

Together they add about 2.25 GW. A slower data-center build doesn’t change their revenue. What could change is the price of the next restart or uprate contract, if buyers have less urgency.

6. What the model says

The price risk is mostly after 2027. Vistra’s hedges cover 2026 and nearly all of 2027. For 2028, roughly every $1/MWh of lower prices costs about $51M of EBITDA.

Contracted nuclear is the shield, and Vistra has more of it today. Vistra has about 52% of its nuclear megawatts under hyperscaler contracts. Constellation has about 7% under hyperscaler contracts and about 25% of clean output under all contracts.

Constellation’s long-run exposure is larger in per-share terms. About $0.30 a share per $1/MWh on uncontracted nuclear, a figure the company states and our rebuild matches.

Texas is a 2027–28 question, not a 2026 one. The Dec 10 audit and the Jan 19 inauguration are the next two dated events that tell us how big the slowdown actually is.

The model lets you change the price scenarios, the hedge shares and the contracted share. The sensitivity tables show the full range.

7. Dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9: $CEG Q3 (call 9:00am ET) and $NRG Q3 (call 8:00am ET).
Tue, Nov 10: hearing petitions due on Dominion’s North Anna early site permit renewal ($D, $AMZN).
Within weeks: Palisades restart, pending NRC clearance.
Dec 10: ERCOT’s target date for filing its large-load audit.
Jan 19, 2027: Texas inauguration.
Second half of 2027: Crane restart target.

Method and gaps

All figures come from company filings and releases, regulators, or the press sources listed below, as of Nov 6, 2026.
The price changes in the scenarios are SEQH assumptions for testing sensitivity. They are not forecasts.
Not found in primary sources:
- Vistra’s hedged volumes in TWh, its price sensitivity, and its net debt in dollars.
- Constellation’s hedge levels for 2027–28.
- Nov 5–6 closing prices.
- The Palisades restart cost.
  
  FULL LIVE EXCEL MODEL LOCATED BELOW:

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Fri, 06 Nov 2026 21:57:30 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 030 · Friday, November 6, 2026 · Post-close · Week in Review
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

The nuclear basket had its best day of the run, +10.80%, and Thursday’s lows held. OKLO rose +22.66% after a narrower-than-expected Q3 loss and $3.13B of cash. LEU rose +17.49% and SMR +16.25%. Every basket name closed near its high, on above-average volume. Power generators bounced too (VST +10.6%, NRG +9.6%, CEG +4.3%), and optics rose +6.92%. Physical uranium told a different story. SPUT’s official discount hit −16.36% on Thursday, the widest in our log, and the units barely moved today.

The October jobs report came in strong: payrolls rose +165K, against roughly 65–70K expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, and the prior two months were revised up by a combined 84K. That kept a December rate hike in play, and the 10-yr rose 2bp to 4.86%. The S&P rose +0.31%, the Nasdaq +1.09% and the SOX +4.21%, while the Dow fell −0.46%. The VIX eased to 25.64 (−9%). Even with Friday’s bounce, the S&P had its worst week since June (−2.68%).

Three takeaways

Thursday’s selloff got its follow-through. On 10/23 we said a washout low would need a day of 2× volume closing at the lows, followed by a session that holds above those lows. Thursday delivered the first part. Today delivered the second: no name broke its Thursday low, and closes came within about 0–2% of the highs. OKLO traded 2.5× its average volume, NRG 2.7× and BWXT 1.7×. A sequence like this often marks a low. One day doesn’t prove it.
The developers led on their own earnings. OKLO (Q3 out 11/5 after the close) and SMR (11/5) both rose 16–23%, while CEG and BWXT rose about 4%. That’s the reverse of the run’s usual daily order. The cumulative ranking barely changed, and LEU moved past UEC. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−54%, BWXT ~−153%, CCJ ~−291%, LEU ~−296%, UEC ~−320%, OKLO ~−481%, SMR ~−765%.
The physical vehicle didn’t bounce with the equities. NAV sits at $22.06, flat for the week. The units rose only +0.33% today while the equities rose 4–23%, which leaves the discount at about −16.1% (estimate).

Key numbers

Nuclear basket +10.80% today, −8.2% for the week · S&P +0.31% today, −2.68% for the week
OKLO +22.66% · LEU +17.49% · SMR +16.25% · UEC +6.79% · CCJ +4.35% · BWXT +3.97%
Rebound from Thursday’s lows: OKLO +27% · LEU +23% · SMR +19%
SPUT official discount −16.36% on Thursday, the widest in our log. NAV $22.06. Implied spot ~$91.93/lb
Payrolls +165K, against about 65–70K expected · Unemployment 4.1%
Optics +6.92% today, −21.9% for the week · VIX 25.64 · 10-yr 4.86%

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 51,285.73 (−0.46%)
S&P 500 7,376.86 (+0.31%)
Nasdaq Composite 24,579.42 (+1.09%)
Russell 2000 2,754.11 (+0.89%)
Jobs (October):
- Payrolls rose +165K, against about 65–70K expected.
- Unemployment fell to 4.1%.
- August and September were revised up by a combined +84K.
- The strong report kept a December Fed hike in play.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.86% (+2bp).
Chips:
- The SOX rose +4.21% after Thursday’s −12.25%.
- AMD rose about 10%, TSM +6.33%, MU +5.12% (to $690.00) and NVDA +2.78% (to $186.64, roughly flat YTD).
Volatility: VIX closed at 25.64 (−9.0%). Reports said a gauge of volatility-of-volatility jumped about 70% on Thursday, a move seen only eight times since 1991.
Oil: December WTI was about $90.50, flat on the day. Brent stayed below $100.
Power:
- VST rose +10.55% to $124.80 and NRG +9.61% to $88.29, on 1.9× and 2.7× average volume.
- XLU fell −0.39%.

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

OKLO $23.55, +22.66%.
- Range $20.86–$24.03. Volume was 2.5× its 50-day average. It is 27.1% above Thursday’s $18.53 low. YTD −67.2%.
- Q3 results (released 11/5 after the close, with the call before Friday’s open):
  - Net loss was $41.7M, narrower than expected and helped by interest income. Revenue was $1.86M.
  - Cash was $3.13B, up from $3.0B at the end of June. It raised $2.3B through at-the-market stock sales in the first three quarters.
  - At its Idaho reactor site, construction has moved into structural work. DOE approved the preliminary safety analysis, and the target is to be operating in 2028–29.
  - It reserved large-component manufacturing capacity with U.S. Forged Rings for 2030–35. The Meta campus deal (up to 1.2 GW in Ohio) is not yet binding.
SMR $5.08, +16.25%.
- It closed a cent below its $5.09 high, 18.7% above Thursday’s low. YTD −64.1%.
- That followed Thursday’s Q3: revenue of $281K, EPS of −$0.11 (against −$0.12 expected), $1.90B of cash, and the Doosan fabrication agreement.
CEG $249.95, +4.30%.
- Range $243.38–$252.72. Volume was about 1.6× average. YTD −29.2%.
- Q3 is due around 11/9, the first report from a power generator since the election.
BWXT $119.52, +3.97%.
- Volume was about 1.7× average. It is −8.6% for the week, despite the strong quarter. YTD −30.8%.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

LEU $104.60, +17.49%.
- Range $93.00–$106.86. It is 23.3% above Thursday’s $84.86 low, and back above $100.
- Volume was about 1.6× average. For the week, +1.3%, the only tracked nuclear name up for the week. YTD −56.9%.
UEC $6.92, +6.79%. YTD −40.8%. For the week, −10.3%.
CCJ $71.30, +4.35%.
- It closed near its $71.59 high and ended five straight days of new lows.
- Volume was about 1.5× average. YTD −22.1%. For the week, −7.3%.
URA $32.34, +4.39%. Volume was about 1.9× average. YTD −24.3%.

SPUT

Thursday 11/5 print:
- NAV $22.06 (−0.03%). Discount −16.36%, the widest in our log, wider than the −15.51% of 10/14. Our estimate was −16.4%.
- Implied spot about $91.93/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose only +0.33% to $18.51. If NAV held at $22.06, the discount would be about −16.1% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $77.97/lb.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

COHR $192.81, +13.58%. Volume was about 2.2× average. YTD +4.5%.
CRDO $120.51, +7.28%. YTD −16.2%.
AAOI $50.13, +6.91%. YTD +43.8%.
LITE $538.59, +5.67%.
- YTD +46.1%.
- Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $141.20 close = $635.40 of implied value. LITE closed 18.0% below that, roughly unchanged from Thursday.
CIEN $243.39, +5.45%. YTD +4.1%.
GLW $106.13, +2.61%. YTD +21.2%.
MRVL $141.20, +5.73%.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 11/6
~Mon 11/9: CEG Q3
Next week: a retest of Thursday’s lows is the key level to watch: OKLO $18.53, SMR $4.28, LEU $84.86, CCJ $66.06, UEC $6.12, BWXT $112.55
Dec FOMC: after the jobs report, a hike is still a possibility

06 · Desk Read

i. Here’s the two-day pattern we described on 10/23. On Thursday the market sold everything on heavy volume (2–3× average), with closes near the lows. On Friday every name held above those lows and closed near its high, again on heavy volume. That’s the classic shape of a washout. We don’t make calls. What would confirm it is a retest next week that holds above Thursday’s lows. What would undo it is a close below those levels. The basket is still −24.9% below its 10/5 close.

ii. The developers’ earnings landed well after the worst day. OKLO showed a narrower loss, $3.1B of cash, a reactor build moving into structural work and DOE safety approval. SMR showed $1.9B of cash and a fabrication agreement. Neither company changed its funding outlook. Both stocks bounced 16–23%. The day’s order ran opposite to the run’s usual pattern, with the developers ahead of CEG and BWXT. The cumulative ranking barely moved, though. One strong day doesn’t undo four weeks.

iii. The physical vehicle’s discount is now the widest in our log. SPUT closed Thursday at a −16.36% discount, and the units barely bounced today while the equities rose 4–23%. NAV is $22.06, flat for the week, and implied spot of about $92 is near the highs in our log. So uranium itself is firm, while the vehicle trades at its largest discount of the run. In the 10/27 rebound, the vehicle led. This time the equities did. The −16.36% discount is the number we’re watching for whether the selling is finished across all the ways to own uranium.

07 · Week in Review (11/2–11/6)

What happened each day

Mon 11/2: basket −3.80%, optics −8.62%. Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum. CCJ set a new low.
Tue 11/3: basket +0.16%, optics +3.54%. BWXT rose after its results. Election day.
Wed 11/4: basket −4.85%, optics −7.64%. Democrats won both chambers, and Texas’s governor-elect has called for a pause on new data centers. VST and NRG fell about 14%. LEU reported Q3.
Thu 11/5: basket −9.59%, optics −16.40%. AI liquidation: S&P −4.36%, SOX −12.25%, VIX +70%. SMR and OKLO reported.
Fri 11/6: basket +10.80%, optics +6.92%. The jobs report was strong, and the follow-through test passed.

The week, from Friday 10/30 to today

Indices: S&P −2.68% (worst week since June) · Dow −0.94% · Nasdaq −3.37% · Russell 2000 −2.05%
Rates and volatility: 10-yr 4.93% → 4.86% · VIX 19.42 → 25.64 (+32%)
Nuclear basket: −8.2%, compounding the daily moves
Nuclear names: LEU +1.3% · URA −4.1% · CEG −4.7% · OKLO −6.7% · CCJ −7.3% · BWXT −8.6% · SMR −9.6% · UEC −10.3%
Optics: −21.9%, compounding the daily moves. LITE −35.9% · AAOI −27.4% · CIEN −24.1% · CRDO −20.2% · GLW −13.9% · COHR −8.3%
AI and power: SOX −12.2% · MU −22.0% · MRVL −28.1% · NVDA −8.8% · VST −9.8% · NRG −8.1% · XLU −0.7%
SPUT: units −4.6%. NAV $22.25 → $22.06. The discount went from −12.77% to −16.36% (a record) and is about −16.1% today (estimate).

Four weeks since 10/9

Nuclear basket −24.2%
Optics −44.5%

What we learned this week

An election result can move the AI-power trade on its own, through data-center permitting.
The deepest liquidation of the run was followed by its strongest one-day bounce.
The developers’ balance sheets ($1.9–3.1B of cash at SMR and OKLO) held up when tested.
Physical uranium stayed firm while the vehicle that holds it traded at a record discount.

Corrections

OKLO’s Q3 date: OKLO reported on 11/5 after the close, not around 11/10 as our calendar showed.
11/5 lows, revised in the consolidated data: UEC $6.12 (not $6.11). LEU $84.86 (not $84.90). BWXT $112.55 (not $112.59).

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Weekly and four-week basket and optics figures compound the daily moves. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

ASPI Timeline Analysis Model

SEQH Capital Research — Fri, 06 Nov 2026 00:23:47 GMT

ASPI Timeline Analysis Model

SEQH Capital Research | November 5, 2026

Summary

Our model gives ASP Isotopes (NASDAQ: ASPI) a 52% probability of delivering none of its five remaining 2H26-guided milestones by December 31, 2026, and a 1-5% probability of delivering three or more. Expected deliveries: 0.6 of 5. The market is now pricing that record, not the guidance: shares closed at $1.91 on November 4 (-64.3% YTD, -79.6% off the $9.38 52-week high) and traded near $1.70 this morning.

The core finding is a split track record. Across 15 closed guidance windows we could date from filings and releases, ASPI hit 4 and missed 11 (26.7%). Every hit was a process step: samples shipped, a confidential S-1 submitted, drilling finished early. Every one of the 11 revenue-bearing or structural windows was missed. On a Jeffreys prior that is a 4.2% posterior hit rate (90% interval 0.0-15.7%) for the next unconditioned date ASPI puts on a commercial milestone.

The slips are regular enough to model. The median revision pushes a target out 5.9 months, almost always by exactly one or two quarters. Measured against the original guided horizon, delivery times are running at least 1.67x (median) to 1.87x (geometric mean) what management first said, and Si-28 is at 3.67x and counting.

What changed in the last 30 days is real:

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Thu, 05 Nov 2026 23:25:35 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 029 · Thursday, November 5, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

This was a full AI liquidation day and the worst session of this run for both groups. The nuclear basket fell −9.59% and optics fell −16.40%. The S&P fell −4.36%, its worst day since 2025 (per reports). The Nasdaq fell −5.52% into correction territory, the SOX fell −12.25%, and the VIX jumped +69.7% to 28.18. Every name we track set a new 52-week low on heavy volume except CEG, which closed at its lowest level since July. Physical uranium didn’t move. Implied spot is still about $92/lb, but SPUT’s units fell 3.5% on 3.4× their usual volume, pushing the discount to about −16.4% (estimate).

Reports didn’t point to any single headline. Three causes came up:

Hedge funds taking profits in 2026’s winners ahead of year-end. Nomura said it “isn’t about a sudden deterioration in fundamentals.”
Renewed worry that the new Congress could slow data-center buildouts.
Net selling by retail investors.

Chip stocks lost roughly $2T in market value. NVDA fell −9.26% and is now negative YTD. MU fell −17.46% and TSM −10.78%. The 10-yr fell to 4.84%, and WTI rose about 3% to about $91 on uncertainty over talks with Iran.

SMR reported after the bell. Revenue was $281K, against a $3.84M estimate. The EPS loss of −$0.11 was a penny better than expected, and cash stands at $1.90B. It also signed a fabrication agreement with Doosan, and its talks with TVA through ENTRA1 continue. The stock was about −2.8% after hours, on top of a −14.81% session.

Three takeaways

The capitulation test we set on 10/23 was met. We said we’d watch for volume of at least 2× average with closes near the lows. Today CCJ traded 2.6×, UEC 2.6×, BWXT 2.7×, OKLO 2.0× and URA 2.4×, and most closed within 2–4% of their lows. A day like this is what an exhaustion low looks like. It doesn’t confirm one. Friday’s follow-through and the jobs report come next.
Even the physical vehicle got sold. NAV (as of Wednesday) is $22.07, and implied spot of about $91.96 is essentially flat for the week. But SPUT’s units traded on 3.4× average volume, and the estimated −16.4%discount would be the widest in our log. Funds sold everything they could sell, including the vehicle that holds physical uranium.
Since 10/6, both groups have taken a hit: optics −50.8% on average, and the nuclear basket −35.9%. The groups in the ranking held for a 23rd session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−85%, BWXT ~−197%, CCJ ~−345%, UEC ~−378%, LEU ~−421%, OKLO ~−650%, SMR ~−974%.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket −9.59% · S&P −4.36% · Nasdaq −5.52% · SOX −12.25% · Optics −16.40%
VIX 28.18 (+69.7%), its highest close since 3/30
New 52-week lows: CCJ $66.06 · UEC $6.11 · LEU $84.90 · OKLO $18.53 · SMR $4.28 · BWXT $112.59 · URA $30.40
YTD: OKLO −73.2% · SMR −69.2% · LEU −63.3% · NVDA −2.6%
SPUT NAV $22.07 (Wednesday). Implied spot ~$91.96/lb. Today’s discount about −16.4% (estimate)
LITE–MRVL deal spread 17.9% · 10-yr 4.84% · WTI about $91

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 51,523.06, −1,833.06 (−3.44%)
S&P 500 7,353.73, −334.89 (−4.36%), its lowest close since 7/29
Nasdaq Composite 24,315.00, −1,421.52 (−5.52%). That puts it in correction, at its lowest close since 4/21.
Russell 2000 2,729.89, −127.06 (−4.45%)
Chips:
- The SOX fell −12.25% to its lowest close since 4/10. Chip stocks lost about $2T in market value.
- MU fell −17.46% to $656.39, TSM −10.78% and NVDA −9.26% to $181.60, which leaves NVDA −2.6% YTD.
- AMD fell about 15% intraday, and QCOM fell after its results.
Other AI names: PLTR and CrowdStrike each fell more than 10% at their lows. SpaceX and TSLA each fell more than 9%.
Power:
- GE Vernova fell −7.48%, VST −6.15% (its lowest close in a year) and NRG −3.24% (also a year low).
- XLU fell only −0.71%.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.84% (−6bp), its lowest close since 9/9.
Volatility: VIX closed at 28.18 (+69.7%), its biggest one-day jump in more than two years.
Oil: December WTI rose about +3.2% to roughly $91, and Brent was about $98, on uncertainty over a U.S.–Iran deal.
Gold and bitcoin: gold was about $4,100 (+0.7%) and bitcoin about $75.9K (−5.3%).

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

SMR $4.37, −14.81%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $4.28 and closed 9 cents above it. YTD −69.2%. It was about −2.8% after hours.
- Q3 results:
  - Revenue was $281K, against $3.84M expected. The year-ago quarter included RoPower engineering fees that have since ended.
  - GAAP EPS was −$0.11, against −$0.12 expected.
  - Cash and investments were $1.90B. It has raised about $985M of equity so far this year.
  - It signed a fabrication agreement with Doosan Enerbility for its reactor’s upper coolant system. Talks between ENTRA1 and TVA continue, with no binding agreement yet.
OKLO $19.20, −13.20%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $18.53 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 2.0× its 50-day average.
- YTD −73.2%. Q3 is due around 11/10.
BWXT $114.96, −5.38%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $112.59 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 2.7×average.
- It is −12.8% in the three sessions since its results. YTD −33.5%.
CEG $239.65, −2.47%.
- It fell to $231.30 intraday and closed at its lowest level since 7/2. Volume was about 2.0× average.
- It held up better than any other name we track. YTD −32.2%. Q3 is due around 11/9.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

UEC $6.48, −9.87%.
- It fell to a new 52-week low of $6.11 on 2.6× average volume, below the unconfirmed $6.75 print from 10/23.
- YTD −44.5%.
CCJ $68.33, −4.67%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $66.06 on 2.6× average volume, its fifth straight new low.
- It is −18.2% since its results. YTD −25.3%.
LEU $89.03, −3.83%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $84.90 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 1.8× average.
- It is 55.4% below its $199.64 offering price. YTD −63.3%.
URA $30.98, −5.26%. It set a new low of $30.40 on 2.4× average volume. YTD −27.5%.

SPUT

Wednesday 11/4 print:
- NAV $22.07 (−0.06%). Discount −13.40%.
- Implied spot about $91.96/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −3.45% to $18.45, on 3.4× average volume. If NAV held at $22.07, the discount would be about −16.4% (our estimate). That would be wider than the −15.51% low of 10/14. At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $77.72/lb.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

AAOI $46.89, −20.89%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/18. YTD +34.5%.
LITE $509.70, −18.68%.
- It closed at its lowest level since 2/5, 55.4% below its $1,143.00 record.
- Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $133.55 close = $600.98 of implied value. LITE closed 17.9% below that, its widest gap since the deal was announced.
CRDO $112.33, −17.71%. It closed at its lowest level since 4/9. YTD −21.9%.
MRVL $133.55, −16.43%. It closed at its lowest level since 4/16. It is −47% since the 10/28 report.
CIEN $230.81, −15.22%. It closed at its lowest level since 1/23, and is now −1.3% YTD.
COHR $169.76, −12.98%. It closed at its lowest level since 12/2/2025, and is now −8.0% YTD.
GLW $103.43, −12.92%. It closed at its lowest level since 1/30. YTD +18.1%.
Since 10/6: the six optics names are down −50.8% on average, so roughly half their value is gone in a month. CRDO, CIEN and COHR are now down for the year.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 11/5 · after-hours follow-through on SMR
Fri 11/6: October jobs report · our Week in Review edition
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3

06 · Desk Read

i. This was a liquidation, not a reaction to news. No single headline drove it. Profit-taking in the year’s AI winners, concern about data-center policy after the election, and retail selling all stacked up into one session. Nearly everything with AI exposure fell together: chips −12%, optics −16%, the nuclear developers −13–15%, generators −3–7%. Utilities fell only 0.7%, and the 10-yr fell. The selling hit the trade, not the economy.

ii. Today met our capitulation test from 10/23, but that doesn’t make it a bottom call. We said we’d change our read on a day with volume of 2× average or more and closes near the lows. Today CCJ, UEC, BWXT, OKLO and URA all traded 2.0–2.7× average and closed 2–4% above their lows. That fits an exhaustion day. It doesn’t prove one. Here’s what would confirm it:

A Friday session where these names hold above today’s lows.
The SPUT discount narrowing back toward −13%.

And what would count against it:

More new lows on rising volume.

iii. The commodity hasn’t moved. Implied spot is about $92/lb, essentially where it was a week ago. The SPUT discount moved from −11.8% on 10/29 to an estimated −16.4% today because the units were sold, not because uranium fell. CCJ is −18% since its results. UEC is −14% this week. Every listed way to own uranium sold off, while uranium itself held.

Corrections

LITE’s fiscal Q1 2027 report: Lumentum released its fiscal Q1 results on 11/2, alongside the Marvell announcement, not on 11/5 as our calendar showed in Editions 026–028. We hadn’t covered the results separately. Its pending deal is now the main driver of the stock.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. After-hours prices were pulled at about 6:20pm ET and are thinly traded. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Wed, 04 Nov 2026 23:40:34 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 028 · Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

The broad market rallied after the midterms, and AI power had its worst day of this run. Democrats won control of the House and Senate. The Dow rose +3.03% (+1,569 points), and the VIX fell −20% to 16.61. Merchant power generators fell sharply: VST −13.83%, NRG −13.52%, CEG −6.71%, BWXT −7.83%, with VST and NRG on about 3.5× average volume. Texas’s governor-elect has called for an immediate pause on new data-center construction. The nuclear basket fell −4.85% while the S&P rose +1.58%. That 643bp gap is the widest of the run, and all five basket names closed at their lowest level in a year.

The rest of the market saw the result as lower risk. Oil fell sharply, with Brent trading below $100 intraday for the first time in weeks, as geopolitical risk premiums faded. The 10-yr eased to 4.89%. Every sector rose except energy, tech and industrials. The AI-infrastructure chain sold off: SOX −3.13%, MU −7.00%, optics −7.64%, MRVL −7.08%. The selling followed concerns that the new Congress and state governments could scrutinize data-center expansion more closely.

LEU reported Q3. SWU revenue rose 32%, and backlog stands at $7.0B through 2040. But DOE said it doesn’t intend to exercise further options on its HALEU operations contract, which puts about $0.8B of backlog at risk. The stock traded down as far as −8.0% and closed −3.23%.

Three takeaways

Policy risk is now part of the AI-power trade. Until now, power names traded on AI capex and on rates. Today they traded on who governs data-center permitting. The heaviest selling hit Texas-exposed merchant generators (VST, NRG). Utilities rose (XLU +0.44%), so this wasn’t a sector-wide sell. It was aimed at companies whose stocks price in power demand from data centers.
Every name in the basket is at its lowest close in a year. That includes BWXT, which rose a day earlier on its results. The basket is now −24.6% below its 10/5 close. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−67%, BWXT ~−134%, UEC ~−284%, CCJ ~−285%, LEU ~−393%, OKLO ~−537%, SMR ~−750%. The three groups held for a twenty-second session: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers.
Physical uranium is slipping a little. NAV fell −0.63% on Tuesday to $22.08, and implied spot is about $92.01/lb, still near the highs in our log. The equities fell 1–6% today, against −0.78% for the SPUT units.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket −4.85%. S&P +1.58%. Dow +3.03%. Gap −643bp, the widest of the run
VST −13.83% · NRG −13.52% · CEG −6.71% · BWXT −7.83% · XLU +0.44%
New 52-week lows: CCJ $69.55 · UEC $7.10 · LEU $88.00 · OKLO $21.65 · SMR $5.01 · BWXT $119.60 · URA $31.95
LEU Q3: revenue $55.5M (−26%), adjusted EPS −$0.46, backlog $7.0B, cash $2.24B
Optics −7.64%. LITE–MRVL deal spread 14.7%
VIX 16.61 (−20.3%) · 10-yr 4.89% · Brent briefly below $100

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 53,356.12, +1,569.40 (+3.03%). Reports call it the best post-midterm day in 44 years.
S&P 500 7,688.62 (+1.58%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,736.51 (+1.44%)
Russell 2000 2,856.95 (+1.58%)
Election: Democrats won majorities in both the House and the Senate, with some races still being counted. In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governorship. She has called for an immediate pause on new data-center construction, an end to related tax incentives, and stronger local control over water and electricity use.
Mega-cap tech: AMZN, MSFT, AAPL and GOOGL were each up about 4–7% (intraday).
AI infrastructure:
- The SOX fell −3.13%. MU fell −7.00%, NVDA −3.17% to $200.13 (its lowest close since 7/30), TSM −2.24% and MRVL −7.08%.
- Comfort Systems fell about 14% premarket.
- GE Vernova fell about 10% (per reports).
Oil: Brent fell about $10 intraday, trading below $100, as the election result and signs of U.S.–Iran diplomacy eased risk premiums. Energy was the worst sector.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.89% (−6bp).
Volatility: VIX closed at 16.61 (−20.3%), its lowest close since 10/15.
Gold: about $4,050 (+2.9%) (early).
Power:
- VST fell −13.83% to $120.29 and NRG −13.52% to $83.25, both on about 3.5× average volume and both at their lowest closes in a year.
- XLU rose +0.44%.

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

CEG $245.72, −6.71%.
- It opened at $248.78 (−5.6%) and fell to $237.81. Range $237.81–$250.85. Volume was about 2.0× its 50-day average.
- It closed at its lowest level since 7/8, and is 8.2% below its 10/5 close. YTD −30.4%. Q3 is due around 11/9.
BWXT $121.50, −7.83%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $119.60 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 2.0×average.
- It gave back Tuesday’s post-earnings gain and more. YTD −29.7%.
OKLO $22.12, −5.83%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $21.65 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
- YTD −69.2%. Q3 is due around 11/10.
SMR $5.13, −4.47%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $5.01 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
- YTD −63.8%. Q3 is due Thursday 11/5.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

LEU $92.58, −3.23%.
- It opened at $93.47 and fell to a new 52-week low of $88.00 (−8.0%), then closed 5.2% above it, at its lowest close in a year.
- Volume was about 1.2× average. It is 53.6% below its $199.64 offering price. YTD −61.9%.
- Q3 results:
  - Revenue $55.5M (−26%).
  - SWU revenue $14.1M (+32%), with volume +19% and price +10%. Uranium revenue fell to $17.7M from $34.1M.
  - Adjusted EPS −$0.46. GAAP net income was $31.6M, helped by a $46.4M warrant gain.
  - Backlog $7.0B through 2040, including about $5.4B of contingent LEU/HALEU commitments tied to potential capacity at Piketon.
  - DOE does not currently intend to exercise further HALEU operations contract options, and the proposed FY2027 budget omits funding for that cascade. That covers about $0.8B of Technical Solutions backlog.
  - Its first centrifuge is complete and shipping from Oak Ridge, ahead of the year-end target.
  - Cash was $2.24B. Nine-month capex was $226M. 2026 revenue guidance is $450–500M.
CCJ $71.68, −1.21%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $69.55 for the fourth straight session, and closed at its lowest level in a year.
- It is −14.1% since its results. YTD −21.7%.
UEC $7.19, −4.89%.
- It set a new low of $7.10, excluding the unconfirmed $6.75 print from 10/23, and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 1.8× average.
- YTD −38.4%.
URA $32.70, −1.06%. It set a new low of $31.95 and closed at its lowest level in a year. YTD −23.5%.

SPUT

Tuesday 11/3 print:
- NAV $22.08 (−0.63%). Discount −12.77%.
- Implied spot about $92.01/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −0.78% to $19.11. If NAV held at $22.08, the discount would be about −13.5%(our estimate).

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

CRDO $136.50, −9.55%. It closed at its lowest level since 4/13. YTD −5.1%.
CIEN $272.24, −9.28%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/6. YTD +16.4%.
LITE $626.75, −7.85%.
- It traded down to $598.70. YTD +70.0%.
- Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $159.80 close = $719.10 of implied value. LITE closed 14.7% below that.
AAOI $59.27, −7.35%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/26. YTD +70.0%.
COHR $195.09, −5.98%. It closed at its lowest level since 1/20. YTD +5.7%.
GLW $118.77, −5.84%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/5. YTD +35.6%.
The pattern: volume was 1.2–1.9× average across the group. Optics sold off with the rest of the AI-infrastructure chain on a day mega-cap tech rallied.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 11/4
Thu 11/5: SMR Q3 · LITE Q1 FY27 (timing subject to the deal)
Fri 11/6: October jobs report · our Week in Review edition
~Nov 9: CEG Q3. This is the first report from a merchant generator since the election
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
Ongoing: data-center policy statements from incoming state administrations, and Congress’s agenda on AI infrastructure

06 · Desk Read

i. The election added policy risk to the AI-power trade. For four weeks this complex traded on AI capex sentiment, rates, and then the cash-flow worries around financing the buildout. Today it traded on politics. The heaviest selling, VST and NRG down almost 14% on 3.5× average volume, hit generators exposed to Texas, where the governor-elect has proposed pausing new data-center construction. The broad market rallied, utilities rose, oil fell and the VIX dropped 20%. So this wasn’t fear across the market. It was aimed at stocks whose valuations assume data centers keep coming online. CEG’s results next week will be the first chance to hear a generator’s management address it.

ii. Even the strongest names got sold. BWXT rose a day earlier on a strong cash quarter, then fell 7.8% today to a year low. On a day like this, the market sold the stocks that trade with AI power regardless of company results. The cumulative ranking still holds, but every name is now at a 12-month low. The basket is down 24.6% since 10/5, while physical uranium has risen over the same period.

iii. LEU’s quarter had good news and a problem. Enrichment is improving: SWU volume was up 19%, price up 10%, and the backlog is $7.0B. The DOE news on HALEU funding is a real negative for about $0.8B of backlog. The stock fell as much as 8% and recovered to −3%, so the market weighed both. Most of the backlog ($5.4B) depends on building out Piketon, and LEU has $2.2B of cash to fund it.

Corrections

None for Edition 027.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. Election coverage reports outcomes and stated policy positions only. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Tue, 03 Nov 2026 23:40:29 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 027 · Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · Post-close · Election Day
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

BWXT passed the test we set Monday night. The stock traded −3% after hours on its results, then closed +1.03% today on 1.4× average volume, so the market paid for a strong cash quarter. CEG rose +2.39% and power generators led (VST +3.7%). CCJ set a new low for a third straight session and is −13.1% since its results. OKLO also set a new 52-week low. The nuclear basket rose +0.16% on a quiet pre-election tape. LEU reports tomorrow.

The S&P ended a three-day losing streak (+0.36%). The Nasdaq rose +0.83% as chips rebounded (SOX +2.63%), and the Dow fell −0.38% on Apple’s margin outlook. Oil recovered part of Monday’s drop, with WTI about $98.50 (+2%), after reports of a U.S. strike on an Iranian position on Qeshm Island. The 10-yr rose 6bp to 4.95%. Midterm results start tonight.

In optics, everything except LITE rebounded, up +4.4% on average. LITE fell −0.62% while MRVL rose +0.33%. That widened the deal spread to 13.8%, from 11.3% on Monday.

Three takeaways

The market rewarded BWXT’s fundamentals. EPS was up 26% and free cash flow up 59%, and the stock went from −3% after hours to +1% at the close. The two companies that already earn the money (BWXT, CEG) are leading the basket. Within the fuel names, CCJ is still being sold on its quarter.
Power generators outperformed utilities. VST +3.7%, NRG +1.7% and CEG +2.4%, while XLU fell −0.6%. That’s the reverse of last week, when investors sold generators and bought utilities. One session isn’t a trend.
Physical uranium’s streak ended, but the discount is narrowing again. NAV slipped −0.15% on Monday, ending a five-day run. Monday’s discount was officially −14.89%. SPUT units rose +1.85% today, which narrows it to about −13.3% (estimate).

Key numbers

Nuclear basket +0.16% · S&P +0.36% · Nasdaq +0.83% · SOX +2.63%
New 52-week lows: CCJ $71.86 · OKLO $22.93. Both closed at their lowest level in a year
BWXT +1.03% · CEG +2.39% · VST +3.70%
LITE−MRVL deal spread 13.8%, wider than Monday’s 11.3%
SPUT NAV $22.22 (−0.15%, Monday data). Implied spot ~$92.60/lb
10-yr 4.95% (+6bp) · VIX 20.83 · WTI about $98.50

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 51,786.72 (−0.38%)
S&P 500 7,568.92 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,372.01 (+0.83%)
Russell 2000 2,812.45 (+0.23%)
Chips: the SOX rose +2.63%. NVDA rose +2.29% to $206.69, MU +2.58% and TSM +1.55%.
Laggards: AAPL fell on its margin outlook and iPad sales, pulling the Dow down. PLTR fell despite beating estimates, on slower growth in new bookings.
Power: Bloom Energy rose about 9% midday, citing AI data center power demand and a new California partnership. VST rose +3.70% to $139.59, NRG +1.73% and CEG +2.39%. XLU fell −0.57%.
Oil: WTI rose about +2% to roughly $98.50, and Brent was about $106.50. The move followed reports of a U.S. strike on an Iranian position on Qeshm Island (intraday).
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.95% (+6bp).
Volatility: VIX closed at 20.83 (−1.5%).
Gold: about $3,912 (−1.5%).
Election: midterm results are expected through the evening. Markets will react tomorrow.

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

BWXT $131.82, +1.03%.
- It opened flat at $130.46 even though it traded about −3% after hours. It then fell to $129.01 and rallied to $135.00 before closing up.
- Volume was about 1.4× its 50-day average. YTD −23.7%.
- The Q3 numbers behind the move: revenue +10%, non-GAAP EPS +26%, free cash flow +59%, 2026 guidance reaffirmed, and a new Army reactor selection.
CEG $263.40, +2.39%.
- Range $259.61–$267.67. It is 1.6% below its 10/5 close. YTD −25.4%.
- Q3 is due around 11/9.
OKLO $23.49, −0.13%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $22.93, then closed 2.4% above it but at its lowest close in a year.
- YTD −67.3%. Q3 is due around 11/10.
SMR $5.37, +0.37%.
- Range $5.27–$5.57. Volume was about 0.6× average. YTD −62.1%.
- Q3 is due Thursday 11/5.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

CCJ $72.56, −1.12%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $71.86 for the third straight session and closed at its lowest level in a year.
- Volume was about 1.6× average. It is −13.1% over the three sessions since its results. YTD −20.7%.
LEU $95.67, +0.81%.
- Range $94.53–$99.27. It held above Monday’s $94.43 low. YTD −60.6%.
- Q3 is Wednesday 11/4.
UEC $7.56, +0.67%. YTD −35.3%.
URA $33.05, +0.36%. It traded down to $32.81, a new intraday low. YTD −22.7%.

SPUT

Monday 11/2 print:
- NAV $22.22, down −0.15%, which ended a five-session streak of gains.
- Discount −14.89%, matching our −15.0% estimate.
- Implied spot about $92.60/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.85% to $19.26. If NAV held at $22.22, the discount would be about −13.3%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $81.13/lb.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

CRDO $150.91, +7.78%. Its YTD return is back in positive territory (+4.9%).
CIEN $300.08, +5.54%. YTD +28.3%.
COHR $207.49, +3.77%. YTD +12.4%.
GLW $126.14, +2.39%. YTD +44.1%.
AAOI $63.97, +2.35%. YTD +83.5%.
LITE $680.16, −0.62%.
- It traded up to $719.97 (+5.2%) and then faded. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +84.5%.
- Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $171.97 close = $773.87 of implied value. LITE closed 13.8% below that, against 11.3% on Monday.
MRVL $171.97, +0.33%. Volume was about 1.8× average.
The pattern: the optics names without a pending deal rebounded with chips, while LITE now trades on the deal. The spread widened on a day the target fell and the buyer rose. That suggests the market sees more risk that the deal doesn’t close.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: midterm election results · SPUT print for 11/3
Wed 11/4: LEU Q3
Thu 11/5: SMR Q3 · LITE Q1 FY27 (timing subject to the deal)
Fri 11/6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3

06 · Desk Read

i. One result, and an important one. We said that if BWXT closed lower on a quarter like this, the selling in the group wasn’t about fundamentals. It closed higher, on above-average volume, after trading −3% overnight. One day isn’t a pattern, but it is the first clear sign in this run that a strong report from inside the basket gets paid for. CEG reports next week and is the next test of the same idea.

ii. CCJ is still being sold on its quarter, not on uranium. Physical uranium is near the highs in our log (implied spot ~$92.60), and the SPUT discount is narrowing again. CCJ has set three straight new lows, on 1.5–3× its usual volume. The market is pricing the gap between Cameco’s contract book and spot (a realized price of $65.78) and its C$3M operating cash flow quarter. Within the fuel group, UEC, which earns less from long-term contracts, now ranks ahead of CCJ.

iii. LEU tomorrow is the next read on fuel pricing. LEU is 52% below its offering price and about 60% down YTD, so expectations are low. Enrichment pricing and the LEU contract book are the numbers that matter. Election results will move the open more than anything sector-specific, so we’ll judge LEU’s reaction against the basket, not against the S&P.

Corrections

11/2 lows, revised in the consolidated data: CCJ $73.26 (not $73.25). LEU $94.43 (not $94.49).

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Ranking today: CEG ~−13%, BWXT ~−34%, UEC ~−236%, CCJ ~−269%, LEU ~−368%, OKLO ~−484%, SMR ~−679%. The three groups have now held for 21 sessions. Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Mon, 02 Nov 2026 23:50:36 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 026 · Monday, November 2, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

Marvell agreed to buy Lumentum in a $115B all-stock deal, and both stocks fell. LITE dropped −18.59% and MRVL −12.72%, which leaves LITE about 11% below the deal’s implied value. In nuclear, the split between physical uranium and the equities widened further. SPUT’s NAV rose for a fifth straight session, taking implied spot to about $92.74/lb, while CCJ fell another −4.59% to a new low, LEU closed below $95 and the basket fell −3.80%. After the bell, BWXT reported 26% EPS growth and a 59% jump in free cash flow and still traded about −3% lower.

The market gave up an early rally into Tuesday’s midterm elections. The S&P fell −0.51% to its lowest close since 7/31, and the Nasdaq fell −1.07%. The VIX closed at 21.15, its highest close since June. Oil fell about 4.5% after reports of Iran–Qatar talks on a proposal to end the conflict; WTI was about $99 and Brent about $108. The 10-yr fell to 4.89%. Oracle fell −5% after announcing a $10B stock offering and a $10B bond offering, adding to the AI-financing pressure from last week. Utilities rose again, with XLU at its highest close since August.

Three takeaways

The market is pricing real doubt that the deal closes. Each LITE share converts into 4.5 MRVL shares. At today’s MRVL close, that’s worth about $771, and LITE closed at $684.40, an 11.3% gap. Using Friday’s closes, the terms implied a premium of only about 5%. The companies expect to close in the first half of 2028. MRVL is now −27% since the 10/28 report.
The gap between physical uranium and the equities is the widest of the run. NAV is +3.2% since 10/23. CCJ is −12.1% in two sessions since its results, and LEU is now 52.5% below its $199.64 offering price. SPUT’s units fell −2.58% today, which puts the discount at roughly −15.0%, near the −15.51% record from 10/14.
The ranking moved inside the fuel group. UEC passed CCJ as CCJ kept sliding after its quarter. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−32%, BWXT ~−47%, UEC ~−242%, CCJ ~−254%, LEU ~−374%, OKLO ~−483%, SMR ~−685%. The three groups held for a twentieth session: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket −3.80%. S&P −0.51%. The basket is now −20.9% below its 10/5 close
New 52-week lows: CCJ $73.25 · LEU $94.49 · OKLO $23.44 · URA $32.90
SPUT NAV $22.25 (+0.73%, Friday data). Implied spot ~$92.74/lb. Today’s discount about −15.0% (estimate)
Marvell–Lumentum: 4.5 MRVL shares per LITE share, $115B enterprise value, expected to close in 1H 2028
Optics −8.62%. CRDO is now negative YTD (−2.7%)
BWXT Q3: revenue +10%, non-GAAP EPS +26%, free cash flow +59%. Shares about −3% after hours
VIX 21.15 · 10-yr 4.89% · WTI about $99 (−4.6%)

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 51,983.98 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 7,541.40 (−0.51%), its lowest close since 7/31
Nasdaq Composite 25,164.36 (−1.07%), its lowest close since 7/30
Russell 2000 2,805.88 (−0.21%)
Session: stocks opened higher and gave the gains back into the close, a day ahead of Tuesday’s midterms.
Chips:
- The SOX fell −3.37% to its lowest close since 4/29.
- INTC fell −8.80%, after −29% on Friday. MU fell −5.78%, TSM −1.85% and NVDA −1.26% to $202.06.
AI financing: Oracle fell about −5% after announcing $10B of new stock and $10B of new bonds. That follows META’s $95B equity plan and SpaceX’s $40B of debt.
Apple: revenue was $114.48B against $113.47B expected, and EPS was $2.10 against $2.00. Growth slowed, and the stock was about −2.5% after hours.
Oil: WTI fell about −4.6% to roughly $99, and Brent about −4.5% to roughly $108. The drop followed reports of Iran–Qatar talks on a proposal to end the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Airlines rose.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.89% (−4bp), its lowest since 9/9.
Volatility: VIX closed at 21.15 (+8.9%), its highest close since 6/10.
Power:
- XLU rose +0.55% to $43.67, its highest close since 8/20.
- VST fell −2.72% to its lowest close in a year. NRG fell −1.50%.

02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

SPUT

Friday 10/30 print:
- NAV $22.25, up +0.73%. That’s the fifth straight gain, and NAV is up 3.2% since 10/23. NAV is +12.41% YTD.
- Units $19.41. Discount −12.77%.
- Implied spot about $92.74/lb, a new high in our log.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −2.58% to $18.91, on about 1.7× average volume. If NAV held at $22.25, the discount would be about −15.0% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.65/lb, about $13/lb below implied spot.

Equities

CCJ $73.38, −4.59%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $73.25 and closed 13 cents above it, its lowest close in a year.
- Volume was about 1.5× its 50-day average. It is −12.1% over the two sessions since its results. YTD −19.8%.
LEU $94.90, −8.12%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $94.49 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
- It is now 52.5% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −60.9%. Q3 results are due around 11/4.
UEC $7.51, −2.59%.
- It traded up to $8.20 (+6.4%) early and then gave it back. YTD −35.7%.
URA $32.93, −2.37%. It set a new 52-week low of $32.90 and closed at its lowest level in a year. YTD −22.9%.
What this means: physical uranium has risen for five straight sessions, while every way to own it through a listed security has fallen: the producers, the enricher, the ETF, and SPUT’s own units. Two things weighed on the equities. CCJ’s quarter showed how far its contract prices lag spot ($65.78/lb realized). And the market is cutting risk across the board, with the VIX above 21.

03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

BWXT $130.47, −0.18%.
- Range $129.97–$134.34. YTD −24.5%. It was about −3.2% after hours following its results.
- Q3, reported after the close:
  - Revenue was $953.0M (+10%). Headlines put the consensus estimate at about $970M, so revenue missed. Government Operations was $639.1M (+4%) and Commercial Operations $314.2M (+25%).
  - Non-GAAP EPS was $1.26 (+26%) and GAAP EPS $1.11 (+25%). Adjusted EBITDA was $179.7M (+19%).
  - Operating cash flow was $202.7M (+42%). Free cash flow was $150.5M (+59%).
  - 2026 guidance: revenue of about $3.8B was reaffirmed. Adjusted EBITDA is about $667M. Non-GAAP EPS was narrowed to $4.72–4.77, and FCF to $350–360M.
  - Early 2027 outlook: revenue growth in the high single digits, and EBITDA and EPS growth from the high single digits to the low double digits.
  - Its BANR reactor was selected for the U.S. Army’s Janus Program at Fort Campbell and for Prodigy Clean Energy’s transportable nuclear plant project in Canada.
CEG $257.25, −1.96%.
- Range $256.87–$268.64. It traded up to $268.64 (+2.4%) and closed near its low.
- It is 3.9% below its 10/5 close. YTD −27.2%. Q3 is due around 11/9.
OKLO $23.52, −6.85%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $23.44 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
- YTD −67.2%. Since 10/6, −39.0%.
SMR $5.35, −4.80%.
- Range $5.32–$5.83. Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −62.2%. Q3 is due 11/5.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

LITE $684.40, −18.59%.
- It opened at $800.02 and fell to $679.00, on 3.2× its 50-day average volume. It closed at its lowest level since 7/29, 40.1% below its $1,143.00 record. YTD +85.7%.
- The deal:
  - Marvell will acquire Lumentum, giving 4.5 MRVL shares per LITE share.
  - Enterprise value is about $115B, and equity value about $80B (per reports).
  - It is expected to close in 1H 2028, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.
  - Nvidia invested $2B in each company earlier this year.
- The spread: at MRVL’s $171.41 close, the deal is worth about $771 per LITE share, so LITE trades about 11.3% below that value. Using Friday’s closes, the deal implied about $884, a 5.1% premium.
MRVL $171.41, −12.72%. It closed at its lowest level since 7/29. It is −27% since the 10/28 report.
CIEN $284.34, −11.34%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/6. YTD +21.6%.
AAOI $62.50, −9.49%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/26. YTD +79.3%.
CRDO $140.02, −7.27%. It closed at its lowest level since 4/13, and is now −2.7% YTD.
COHR $199.95, −4.93%. It closed at its lowest level since 1/26. YTD +8.3%.
GLW $123.20, −0.09%. YTD +40.7%.
Since 10/6: the six optics names are down −38.7% on average, against −25.9% for the nuclear basket.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tue 11/3: U.S. midterm elections
~Wed 11/4: LEU Q3
Thu 11/5: SMR Q3 · LITE Q1 FY27 (timing may change because of the deal)
Fri 11/6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
Pending: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)

06 · Desk Read

i. The Marvell deal doesn’t show the market paying up for optical assets. Two numbers say so. First, the deal implied only about a 5% premium at Friday’s prices. Second, the market has now widened the gap to about 11% while knocking 27% off the buyer’s stock in four sessions. With a close not expected until 1H 2028, that gap is pricing in a long regulatory process and real risk that the deal doesn’t close. Every other optics name fell 0.1–11.3% today. Consolidation didn’t lift the group, and some of the drop was fresh doubt about the economics of AI networking.

ii. Physical uranium and the equities are as far apart as they’ve been in this run. Physical uranium is at a new high in our log (implied spot ~$92.74), and NAV is up five straight sessions. The equities keep making new lows. CCJ is −12% since its print, LEU is more than 50% below its offering price, URA is at a year low, and SPUT’s own units now trade about 15% below the value of the uranium they hold. The market is selling uranium equities as a risk asset while the commodity rises. What would change the picture: LEU’s results (~11/4) giving a firm read on enrichment pricing, or the SPUT discount narrowing back toward −12% while NAV holds.

iii. BWXT is the cleanest test of whether fundamentals are being rewarded right now. The quarter showed EPS +26%, free cash flow +59%, guidance reaffirmed, a new Army reactor selection, and a 2027 outlook for growth in the high single digits to low double digits. The stock was still about −3% after hours, likely on the revenue miss against estimates. If BWXT closes lower tomorrow on numbers like these, that’s strong evidence that the market’s selling in this group isn’t about fundamentals. We’ll check at Tuesday’s close, with the election running in the background.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. After-hours prices were pulled at about 6:30pm ET and are thinly traded. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Fri, 30 Oct 2026 22:30:54 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 025 · Friday, October 30, 2026 · Post-close · Week in Review
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

CCJ was the first basket company to report in this run, and the stock fell −7.88% on 3.1× its average volume. It hit a new 52-week low of $73.89 and closed at its lowest level in a year. The quarter showed an adjusted loss, narrower 2026 production guidance, and a realized uranium price of US$65.78/lb, against about $92/lb implied spot. On the same day, Intel fell about 29% (its worst day since 1974), the SOX fell −7.20%, the Nasdaq −2.86%, and the VIX touched 23.93. The nuclear basket fell −5.88% and gave back most of its gains for the week. It still finished the week +1.2%.

CCJ’s quarter (C$ unless noted):

Revenue was $619M, roughly flat. Adjusted EPS was $0.00, against $0.07 a year ago.
Gross profit fell 28% to $122M. Operating cash flow was $3M, against $156M a year ago.
Uranium sales volume fell 8% to 5.6M lb.
2026 production guidance narrowed to 19.5–20.5M lb, from 19.5–21.5M, because of a Key Lake maintenance outage.
Cameco’s share of Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA rose 15% for the quarter but is down 25% for the first nine months.

Every basket name fell at least 5%. CEG held up best (−0.83%) as utilities rose again (XLU +0.67%).

Optics fell −8.98% in the chip selloff. AAOI fell −12.8% and COHR −11.3%. MRVL fell −10.1% to its lowest close since 8/3, down 14% for the week since the Lumentum report. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-yr at 4.93%, its lowest since 9/9. Oil rose: WTI about $104, Brent about $118 (intraday).

Three takeaways

CCJ’s quarter shows how far its contract book trails spot. It realized US$65.78/lb, about $26/lb (28%) below implied spot of about $92. Cameco says its contracts cover more than 28M lb a year over the next five years. Coverage is above its average for 2026–28 and below average for 2029–30. That means the gain from today’s spot price mostly shows up in contracts that haven’t been signed yet.
Uranium itself hasn’t sold off. NAV was $22.09 through Thursday, up 2.5% for the week. The SPUT units fell only −0.41% today, on 8.4× their usual volume. CCJ fell because of its own quarter and cash flow, not because of the uranium price.
The ranking held for a nineteenth session, and CEG is back on top. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−16%, BWXT ~−45%, CCJ ~−190%, UEC ~−216%, LEU ~−307%, OKLO ~−416%, SMR ~−606%.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket −5.88% today, +1.2% for the week · S&P −1.82% today, −0.57% for the week
CCJ $76.91 (−7.88%). New 52-week low $73.89. Realized price US$65.78/lb
New 52-week lows: CCJ $73.89 · OKLO $24.49 · URA $33.01
Optics −8.98% · SOX −7.20% · Intel about −29%
SPUT NAV $22.09 (as of 10/29). Implied spot ~$92.05/lb. Units −0.41% on 8.4× volume
10-yr 4.93% (−6bp) · VIX 19.42 (intraday high 23.93) · XLU +0.67%

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 51,770.31 (−1.09%)
S&P 500 7,580.07 (−1.82%), its lowest close since 9/16
Nasdaq Composite 25,437.00 (−2.86%), its lowest close since 7/31
Russell 2000 2,811.84 (−1.66%)
Chips:
- Intel fell about 29% on weak Q4 guidance, citing a PC slump and a factory accident in Israel. It was the worst day for the stock since 1974.
- The SOX fell −7.20%. AMD fell about 12% intraday, TSM −5.95%, MU −5.30% and NVDA −4.22%, to its lowest close since 7/31.
- Headlines put the chip-sector loss at about $1T in market value.
Other tech:
- Reddit fell about 29% on soft Q4 guidance.
- AMZN closed −1.41% at $240.35 after opening around $232.
- GOOGL fell −1.40% and is −12.6% for the week. MSFT fell −1.55% and META −1.53%.
Breadth: about 70% of U.S. issues declined, and the S&P tech sector fell nearly 5%.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.93% (−6bp), its lowest since 9/9. The 2-yr was about 4.57% (−9bp).
Volatility: VIX closed at 19.42 (+12.9%). Its intraday high of 23.93 was near its June levels.
Oil and gold: WTI about $104 and Brent about $118 on tanker attacks and Iran tensions (intraday). Gold about $3,974 (−1.4%).
Power: XLU +0.67% to $43.43, its highest close since 9/8. VST −1.83% and NRG −1.52%.

02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

CCJ $76.91, −7.88%.
- It opened at $75.72 (−9.3%), set a new 52-week low of $73.89, then closed 4.1% above the low but at its lowest close in a year.
- Volume was 9.55M, 3.1× its 50-day average. YTD −15.9%. For the week, −2.2%.
- Q3 highlights:
  - Realized price US$65.78/lb, up 6% y/y.
  - Sales volume 5.6M lb (−8%).
  - Gross profit C$122M (−28%).
  - Operating cash flow C$3M (−98%).
  - 2026 production guidance 19.5–20.5M lb, down from 19.5–21.5M, because of the Key Lake outage.
  - 2026 delivery guidance 29.5–30.5M lb, narrowed from 29–32M.
  - Cash C$860M against C$1.0B of debt. Annual dividend C$0.24.
LEU $103.29, −6.57%. Range $100.81–$104.57. YTD −57.5%. For the week, +0.8%.
UEC $7.71, −5.40%. YTD −34.0%. For the week, +4.9%.
URA $33.73, −5.57%. It set a new 52-week low of $33.01 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 1.3× average. YTD −21.1%.

SPUT

Sprott’s 10/30 print wasn’t posted at our cutoff. The latest official figures (10/29) were NAV $22.09, discount −11.77% and implied spot about $92.05/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell only −0.41% to $19.41. They traded down to $18.81 intraday, on 192.7K units, about 8.4× the average. If NAV held at $22.09, the discount would be about −12.1% (our estimate).
What this means: CCJ’s realized price ($65.78) and implied spot ($92) are about $26/lb apart. The stock sold off on Cameco’s own operations and cash flow. The vehicle that owns physical uranium held up on heavy volume.

03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

CEG $262.38, −0.83%.
- Range $258.57–$267.00. It was the best performer among the tracked nuclear names and is back in first place in the ranking.
- YTD −25.7%. For the week, +3.5%.
OKLO $25.25, −5.82%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $24.49 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
- YTD −64.8%. For the week, −4.2%. Since 10/6, −34.5%.
BWXT $130.70, −5.24%.
- Range $129.49–$135.24. It closed back below its 10/5 close of $135.35 after one session above it.
- Volume was about 1.1× average. YTD −24.4%. For the week, +2.8%.
SMR $5.62, −5.07%.
- Range $5.42–$5.65. YTD −60.3%. For the week, +4.5%.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

AAOI $69.05, −12.80%. Volume was about 1.9× average. YTD +98.1%.
COHR $210.32, −11.34%. Volume was about 1.8× average. YTD +14.0%.
CRDO $150.99, −8.65%. YTD +4.9%.
LITE $840.70, −8.57%.
- It traded as low as $805.29. YTD +128.1%.
- It is still +11.2% for the week on the reported Marvell talks. Nothing had been announced at our cutoff.
CIEN $320.72, −8.22%. YTD +37.1%.
GLW $123.31, −4.32%. It closed at its lowest level since 3/6. YTD +40.8%.
MRVL fell −10.05% to $196.40, its lowest close since 8/3. It is −14.0% since the Lumentum report.
Since 10/6: the six optics names are down −32.8% on average, against −23.2% for the nuclear basket.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 10/30
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 (subject to any Marvell announcement) · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
Pending: a possible Marvell–Lumentum announcement (per Bloomberg; unconfirmed) · GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)

06 · Desk Read

i. CCJ’s results show the gap between the contract book and spot. Cameco realized $65.78/lb while implied spot was about $92. That gap is how a contract-heavy producer works: it locks in volume at older prices and earns today’s prices only as contracts roll over. Cameco says its book is above average through 2028 and below average in 2029–30. That makes the next round of contracting the lever, more than this quarter’s numbers. The market sold the quarter on cash flow (C$3M operating cash flow) and the Key Lake guidance cut, not on the uranium price.

ii. The commodity and the equities are moving separately again. NAV rose 2.5% this week and held through Thursday. The SPUT units barely moved today on 8× volume. Meanwhile, every uranium equity fell 5–8%. Since 10/9 we’ve seen every combination of physical uranium and equities moving together or apart. What’s consistent is that the price paid for uranium exposure through equities moves far more than the uranium itself.

iii. Next week brings four reports from inside our coverage. BWXT (11/2), LEU (~11/4), SMR (11/5) and CEG (~11/9) all report in the next eight sessions, with OKLO on ~11/10. After CCJ, the question is whether operating cash flow and backlog matter more right now than the AI-power story. This week’s evidence says they do: the names with backlog and cash flow (CEG, BWXT) held up, and the reactor developers and fuel names took the hits.

07 · Week in Review (10/26–10/30)

What happened each day

Mon 10/26: basket +0.27%, optics +5.23%. Anthropic’s S-1 lifted chips and optics. LEU closed below $100 for the first time.
Tue 10/27: basket +5.60%, optics +5.58%. SPUT NAV rose 1.08%, and the fuel names led.
Wed 10/28: basket +0.97%, optics +4.17%. The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% with two dissents in favor of a hike. GOOGL and MSFT reported after the bell, and Marvell–Lumentum talks were reported.
Thu 10/29: basket +0.55%, optics −2.41%. GOOGL fell 12.6% and AMZN reported. BWXT closed back above its 10/5 level.
Fri 10/30: basket −5.88%, optics −8.98%. CCJ fell 7.9% on its results, and Intel fell about 29%.

The week, from Friday 10/23 to today

Indices: S&P −0.57% · Dow −0.85% · Nasdaq −2.00% · Russell 2000 +1.29%
Rates and volatility: 10-yr 4.99% → 4.93% · VIX 19.45 → 19.42
Nuclear basket: +1.2%, compounding the daily moves
Nuclear names: SMR +4.5% · UEC +4.9% · CEG +3.5% · BWXT +2.8% · LEU +0.8% · URA −1.1% · CCJ −2.2% · OKLO −4.2%
Optics: +2.8%, compounding the daily moves. LITE +11.2% · CRDO +2.5% · AAOI +2.3% · COHR +0.5% · CIEN +0.1% · GLW −0.3%
AI and power: GOOGL −12.6% · MRVL −14.0% · META −4.3% · AMZN −3.1% · NVDA −3.0% · XLU +2.0%· NRG +4.1% · VST −1.3%
Physical uranium: NAV $21.56 → $22.09 (+2.5%, through 10/29). Implied spot $89.80 → $92.05/lb. SPUT units +4.6%

Three weeks since 10/9

Nuclear basket −17.5%
Optics −28.9%

What we learned this week

Physical uranium rose on its own, to a new high in our log.
The hyperscaler reports raised questions about cash flow and financing, not about AI demand.
Utilities kept attracting buyers.
The first fundamental report from inside the basket (CCJ) showed how far a contract book can lag the spot price.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Weekly and three-week basket and optics figures compound the daily moves. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. Cameco’s figures are in C$ unless marked US$. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Fri, 30 Oct 2026 00:35:39 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 024 · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

Uranium kept rising while the hyperscalers fell on cash-flow worries. SPUT’s NAV rose for a third straight session to $22.09, and implied spot reached about $92.05/lb, a new high in our log and up 2.5% since Friday. Alphabet fell −12.6% to its lowest close since March, and Amazon fell −4.25% in the session and about −7% more after its report. The nuclear basket rose +0.55% while the Nasdaq fell −1.38%. Amazon’s after-hours drop then pulled the AI-power names lower.

Today’s tech selloff was about cash flow, not demand. Alphabet showed negative free cash flow alongside its 2027 capex signal. Amazon kept its ~$220B 2026 capex plan, reported trailing-12-month free cash flow of −$42.4B, and showed long-term debt nearly triple its December level. AWS still grew 39%. MSFT gave back its after-hours gain and closed −0.16%. Marvell fell −13.2% after Bloomberg reported it is in advanced talks to buy Lumentum. LITE rose as much as +7.1% and closed +0.61%.

Outside megacap tech, most of the market rose. The Russell 2000 gained +1.01% to its highest close since 9/22, and utilities rose +1.53% to their highest close since 9/8. The nuclear basket was mixed: SMR +4.41%, CEG +2.52% and BWXT +2.20% led, while the fuel equities slipped (UEC −2.28%, LEU −1.27%, CCJ −0.42%) even as physical uranium rose. BWXT closed back above its 10/5 close.

Three takeaways

The uranium price itself is rising. NAV went from $21.56 to $22.09 in three sessions (+2.5%), and the SPUT discount narrowed to −11.77%. Implied spot (~$92.05) is above Cameco’s September spot average ($89.63) and below its long-term price ($96.50). CCJ reports Friday.
The market penalized hyperscalers on cash flow. GOOGL had negative free cash flow and a big 2027 capex step-up. AMZN has −$42B of trailing free cash flow and heavier debt. The market is now asking who funds the spending, not whether there is demand. During the session, power held up (CEG +2.5%, XLU +1.5%). After the AMZN report, it gave some back (CEG −1.7%, OKLO −3.2%, SMR −4.6% in thin after-hours trading).
BWXT moved back above its pre-Google-deal close, and the ranking held for an eighteenth session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: BWXT ~+25%, CEG ~−9%, CCJ ~−72%, UEC ~−158%, LEU ~−248%, OKLO ~−355%, SMR ~−518%.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket +0.55%. S&P −0.30%. Nasdaq −1.38%. Russell 2000 +1.01%
SPUT NAV $22.09 (+0.30%; +2.5% in three sessions). Implied spot ~$92.05/lb. Discount −11.77%
GOOGL −12.64% ($283.82) · AMZN −4.25% ($243.79), about −7% after hours · MRVL −13.24%
Optics −2.41%. LITE +0.61% after trading up 7.1% intraday
Q3 GDP 3.4% (3.1% expected) · PCE 3.6% y/y, core 3.1% y/y
10-yr 4.99% (−6bp) · VIX 17.20 · XLU +1.53%

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,342.56, −132.54 (−0.25%)
S&P 500 7,720.39, −23.59 (−0.30%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,184.72, −365.13 (−1.38%)
Russell 2000 2,859.22, +28.71 (+1.01%), its highest close since 9/22
Data:
- Q3 GDP grew 3.4% annualized, against 3.1% expected and 2.2% in Q2.
- September PCE rose +0.5% m/m and 3.6% y/y, up from 3.4%. Core PCE rose +0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y.
- Consumer spending rose +0.5%, against +0.6% expected. Income rose +0.2%.
Hyperscalers:
- GOOGL −12.64% to $283.82, its lowest close since 3/30. That followed a revenue and profit miss, negative free cash flow, and its signal of a “significant increase” in 2027 capex.
- MSFT −0.16% to $530.14, giving back its after-hours gain. Azure grew 48%.
- META rose +1.96%.
AMZN, after the bell:
- Revenue was $201.9B (+12%). AWS was $46.0B, up +39%, its fastest growth in nearly five years.
- It kept its plan for about $220B of 2026 capex.
- Trailing-12-month free cash flow was −$42.4B, against +$14.8B a year ago. Long-term debt is about $173B, nearly triple December’s level.
- Headlines called it a miss on sales and EPS. The stock closed −4.25% at $243.79 and was about −6% to −7% in after-hours trading.
Chips and software:
- The SOX fell −1.42%. MU fell −4.98% to $934.27, NVDA −0.80% and TSM −1.75%.
- ServiceNow fell about 25% and Fortinet about 22% on guidance.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.99% (−6bp), with a range of 4.95–5.03%.
Volatility: VIX closed at 17.20 (+1.7%).
Oil: WTI was about $102 and Brent about $114 (intraday). Gold was about $4,036.
Power: XLU rose +1.53% to $43.14, its highest close since 9/8. VST −1.24%, NRG +0.59%.

02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

SPUT

Thursday 10/29 print (posted same day):
- NAV $22.09 (+0.30%). NAV YTD is +11.59%.
- Price $19.49, the highest close since 10/6. Discount −11.77%.
- Implied spot about $92.05/lb, a new high in our log.
Wednesday 10/28: NAV $22.02 (+1.06%). With the units at $19.39, the discount was about −11.94% (derived).
NAV over the last four prints: $21.56 → $21.79 → $22.02 → $22.09, up 2.5% since Friday.
At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $82.10/lb.
For reference: Cameco’s published monthly prices as of 9/30 were $89.63 spot and $96.50 long-term. Implied spot is now about $2.40 above the September spot average and about $4.45 below the long-term price.

Equities

CCJ $83.49, −0.42%.
- Range $82.83–$84.75. YTD −8.7%.
- It reports Q3 on Friday 10/30. It was about −1.2% in after-hours trading.
LEU $110.55, −1.27%.
- It traded up to $116.61 (+4.1%) and then gave it back. YTD −54.5%.
- It was about −3.6% in after-hours trading.
UEC $8.15, −2.28%. Volume was about 1.0× its 50-day average. YTD −30.2%.
URA $35.72, −2.27%. YTD −16.4%.
What this means: last week the equities fell while physical uranium held. Today it ran the other way: NAV rose and the fuel equities fell. Over the three sessions, the equities still rose more (LEU +12.3%, UEC +9.5%, CCJ +5.6% against NAV +2.5%). Today looks like a pause after Tuesday’s jump, not a reversal.

03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

SMR $5.92, +4.41%.
- Range $5.54–$6.11. It closed at its highest level since 10/15. Volume was 35.7M, about 1.0× average.
- YTD −58.2%. It was about −4.6% in after-hours trading.
CEG $264.58, +2.52%.
- Range $257.00–$266.89. It closed at its highest level since 10/21 and is 1.1% below its 10/5 close.
- YTD −25.1%. It was about −1.7% in after-hours trading.
BWXT $137.93, +2.20%.
- Range $134.01–$139.61. It closed at its highest level since 10/13.
- It is $2.58 above its 10/5 close, the first tracked name back above that level since CEG’s one-day return on 10/21. YTD −20.2%.
OKLO $26.81, −1.14%.
- Range $26.16–$27.72. YTD −62.6%.
- It was about −3.2% in after-hours trading.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

LITE $919.53, +0.61%.
- It opened at $950.00 (+3.9%) and reached $978.40 (+7.1%) before fading to close up less than 1%.
- Volume was 7.40M, about 1.6× average. YTD +149.5%. It was about −4.2% in after-hours trading.
- The Marvell report: Bloomberg reported late 10/28 that Marvell is in advanced talks to acquire Lumentum, citing people familiar with the matter. A deal could come as soon as next week. No terms have been disclosed, and no final agreement has been reached. Before today’s move, LITE’s market cap was about $82.8B and MRVL’s about $220.7B. MRVL fell −13.24% to $218.34.
COHR $237.22, −0.99%. It was about −6.4% in after-hours trading.
GLW $128.88, −1.77%.
AAOI $79.19, −3.69%.
CIEN $349.45, −3.79%.
CRDO $165.29, −4.84%.
The pattern: the market treated LITE as the target and MRVL as the payer. Most of LITE’s early gain faded, and the other optics names fell 1–5%.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −26.3% on average, against −18.3% for the nuclear basket.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: after-hours follow-through on AMZN
Fri 10/30: CCJ Q3, the first quarterly report from a basket company in this run. Also our Week in Review edition
Late Oct / early Nov: a possible Marvell–Lumentum announcement (per Bloomberg; unconfirmed) · GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 (timing may change if a deal is announced) · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3

06 · Desk Read

i. The uranium price is now moving on its own. Three straight NAV gains, an implied spot price of about $92, and a discount that has narrowed by about 350bp from last week’s −15.23% mean the commodity has caught a bid. That is separate from the AI-power story. CCJ’s results tomorrow are the first chance to hear from a producer whether contracting and term pricing back up what spot is doing. Our test: does CCJ describe the term market (long-term contracts) in terms that match a long-term price of about $96? Or does it point to softer demand from utilities?

ii. The hyperscaler week came down to free cash flow. Here is how the market treated the four reports:

META raised its capex range and announced a $95B equity raise.
MSFT came in under its capex estimate and gave the gain back the next day.
GOOGL signaled a big 2027 step-up alongside negative free cash flow.
AMZN held its capex plan, with −$42B of trailing free cash flow and nearly triple the debt.

The common thread is that investors now care about how the buildout gets funded, not about the size of the capex numbers. That’s a slower-moving headwind for the AI-power trade than last week’s sentiment swings. Utilities and the cash-earning nuclear names (CEG, BWXT) held up well in the session, but after hours they followed AMZN lower.

iii. Inside nuclear, the old ranking is back. On Tuesday the fuel names led on the uranium price. Today the names whose business doesn’t depend on commodity prices (BWXT, CEG) led, plus a rebound in SMR. BWXT is back above its 10/5 close, CEG is 1.1% below its own, and the basket is 12.8% below where it stood before the Google deal, an improvement of about 6 points this week. The groups held for an eighteenth session.

Corrections

None for Edition 023.
SPUT timing: today’s Sprott print posted the same day, so this edition reports the official 10/29 discount, not an estimate. The 10/28 figure (−11.94%) is derived from the change in NAV.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Highest/lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. After-hours prices were pulled at about 8pm ET and are thinly traded. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

ASPI: Helium Is Flowing. The Stock Now Trades Below a Zero-Phase-2 Valuation.

SEQH Capital Research — Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:01:16 GMT

The Phase 1 helium plant has finished commissioning and is producing helium steadily into storage. Management expects full capacity in Q4 and is “finalising logistics” for first deliveries.

What’s new:

The milestone is real, the money isn’t yet. Even if the plant ramps straight to full capacity by December 31, Q4 helium sales would be only about $1.8–2.4M at $600/Mcf. What matters is proof the plant runs, which is what Phase 2 lenders need to see.
What the release didn’t say.
- Full capacity has moved from Q3 to Q4, and first deliveries slipped from September.
- There’s no update on helium contracts: still about 15% signed, against a stated aim of about 75%.
- It repeats 70 Mcf/day, while the company’s own figures elsewhere imply 52–58. That gap is worth up to about $11.6M a year of helium revenue.
The market barely reacted.
- The stock closed up 3.86%, keeping only about half of its 7.2% pre-market jump.
- That’s 0.77 of a normal day’s move, on ordinary volume.
- Before that, it fell 33% from the Oct 2 S-4 day to Oct 23. That drop is only borderline statistically significant (p ≈ 0.06).
Valuation. At $2.03, our model is worth $2.85 per share even with Phase 2 valued at zero. The market cap leaves only about $15M for PET Labs, the isotope business, QLE and Alpa, against $142M in our model.
- On Oct 5, the price implied about $767/Mcf helium for Phase 2. That calculation no longer works: the stock is now pricing below a world with no Phase 2 at all.
- The deal’s own value for ASPI’s helium stake is now 1.9x ASPI’s enterprise value, up from 1.13x.
The October 5 pattern still holds, though weaker. Structure news still hurts the stock more than operational news helps it, even counting both new events (p = 0.032 on two different tests). But the stock’s reaction to good operational news has roughly halved.

FULL DEEP DIVE IN PDF LOCATED BELOW:

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Wed, 28 Oct 2026 23:01:41 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 023 · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

Uranium led a two-day rebound in the nuclear names. The five-name basket rose +5.60% on Tuesday and +0.97% today, +6.62% over two days, against +0.88% for the S&P. Uranium itself moved too: SPUT’s NAV rose +1.08% on Tuesday, implied spot rose to about $90.79/lb (the highest in our log), and the discount narrowed to −11.98%. The Fed held at 3.75–4.00%, with two dissents in favor of a hike. After the bell: GOOGL fell about 10%, MSFT rose, and LITE jumped about 11% on reports of acquisition talks with Marvell.

(There was no edition on Tuesday 10/27, so today covers both sessions.) Since Friday the move has run through the fuel names. Over two days: LEU +13.7%, UEC +12.1%, URA +6.4%, CCJ +6.0%. The developers (OKLO +4.6%, SMR +7.6%) rose on Tuesday and slipped today. BWXT (+2.9%) and CEG (+2.2%) lagged. Optics kept recovering, up +5.58% on Tuesday and +4.17% today, with LITE closing at its highest level since 10/13.

The S&P rose for a third straight session (+0.28%) and the Russell 2000 closed at its highest level since 10/5. The 10-yr rose 6bp to 5.05% after the Fed decision. The vote to hold was 10–2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a 25bp hike.

Three takeaways

Physical uranium led this time. NAV’s +1.08% on Tuesday was its biggest one-day move in our log, and SPUT’s discount narrowed by 197bp to −11.98%. The fuel names rose the most. Physical uranium and the uranium equities moved up together for the first time in this run. CCJ reports Friday.
The ranking held for a seventeenth session, and the fuel names are catching up. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: BWXT ~−4%, CEG ~−29%, CCJ ~−65%, UEC ~−133%, LEU ~−237%, OKLO ~−343%, SMR ~−591%. Since Friday, CCJ has recovered about 95 points on that measure, UEC about 130 and LEU about 77.
The hyperscaler capex reports pointed in different directions. Alphabet held its 2026 capex range and said it expects a “significant increase” in 2027 (per reports), and the stock fell about 10% after hours. Microsoft’s quarterly capex was $39.4B, against $45.9B expected, and the stock rose about 3–5%. Power names barely moved after hours (CEG −0.1%, VST −0.6%) while LITE jumped on M&A news. AI headlines are still moving optics, not power.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket +0.97% today, +6.62% over two days · S&P +0.28% today, +0.88% over two days
Optics +4.17% today, +9.98% over two days. LITE $913.95
SPUT NAV $21.79 (+1.08% Tuesday). Implied spot ~$90.79/lb. Discount −11.98%
Fed held at 3.75–4.00%, vote 10–2 (two dissents for a hike)
10-yr 5.05% (+6bp) · VIX 16.91 · Russell 2000 at its highest close since 10/5
After hours: GOOGL ~−10% · MSFT ~+3–5% · LITE ~+11%

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,475.10, +97.53 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 7,743.98, +21.38 (+0.28%), its third straight gain
Nasdaq Composite 26,549.85, +72.04 (+0.27%)
Russell 2000 2,830.51, +11.64 (+0.41%), its highest close since 10/5
Tuesday 10/27: S&P 7,722.60 (+0.60%) · Nasdaq 26,477.81 (+1.18%)
Fed:
- The FOMC held the target range at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25bp hike.
- Chair Warsh said politics had “no role” in the decision. He also announced strategy-focused meetings with no policy decisions (reported; details of the schedule change weren’t confirmed at our cutoff).
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 5.05% (+6bp), with a range of 4.99–5.05%.
Volatility: VIX closed at 16.91 (−3.5%).
Chips:
- The SOX rose +1.75% to its highest close since 10/14, up 5.4% over two days.
- MU rose +5.86% to $983.23, its highest close since 10/12. NVDA fell −1.17% to $215.38 and TSM rose +0.60%.
Hyperscalers during the session: META fell −1.24% to $612.49, its lowest close since 9/3. MSFT was −0.06%, GOOGL +1.34% and AMZN +0.59%.
After the bell:
- GOOGL: revenue was $127.6B (+25%). Google Cloud grew +103% to $30.7B. EPS of $2.12 included an $8.7B unrealized investment loss. Alphabet held its 2026 capex unchanged and said it expects a “significant increase” in 2027. Free cash flow was reportedly negative. The stock was about −10% in after-hours trading.
- MSFT: revenue was $92.28B, against $90.63B expected. Capex was $39.37B, against $45.93B expected. The stock was about +3–5% after hours.
- LITE: up about +11% after hours, to roughly $1,015, on reported acquisition talks with Marvell (MRVL). Neither company had confirmed this at our cutoff.
Power: XLU −0.84%, VST −2.69% ($142.72), NRG +1.78% ($96.97).
Oil: WTI was about $100–102 after easing on Tuesday.

02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

LEU $111.97, +2.33%.
- Tuesday: +11.15% to $109.42. Over two days: +13.7%.
- It closed at its highest level since 10/16 and back above $110, two sessions after its first close below $100.
- It is now 43.9% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −53.9%.
UEC $8.34, +3.73%.
- Tuesday: +8.06%. Over two days: +12.1%.
- It closed at its high and at its highest level since 10/12. Volume was 12.6M, about 1.3× its 50-day average. YTD −28.6%.
CCJ $83.84, +1.74%.
- Tuesday: +4.22%. Over two days: +6.0%.
- It closed at its high and at its highest level since 10/13. It is 9.0% above Friday’s $76.92 low. YTD −8.4%.
- Q3 is Friday 10/30. Reports ahead of the print pointed to uranium holding near a six-month high and to developments at Westinghouse, in which Cameco owns a stake.
URA $36.55, +1.92%. Over two days: +6.4%. It closed at its highest level since 10/13. YTD −14.5%.

SPUT

Tuesday 10/27 print:
- NAV $21.79, up +1.08%, the largest one-day NAV move in our log. NAV YTD is +10.08%.
- Price $19.18. Discount −11.98%, narrower by 197bp and the narrowest since 10/9 (−11.62%).
- Implied spot about $90.79/lb, up from $89.80 on Friday and a new high in our log.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.09% to $19.39, the highest close since 10/7. If NAV held at $21.79, the discount would be about −11.0% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $81.68/lb.
For reference: Cameco’s published monthly prices as of 9/30 were $89.63 spot and $96.50 long-term. Implied spot is now above the September spot average.
What this means: two weeks ago the vehicle and the equities fell while physical uranium held. This week physical uranium rose, the discount narrowed, and the fuel names rose the most. Uranium itself is leading the equities, not lagging them.

03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

BWXT $134.96, +0.66%.
- Tuesday: +2.19%. Range today $131.90–$136.00.
- It is 39 cents below its 10/5 close and still first in the ranking (~−4%). YTD −21.9%.
CEG $258.08, −0.35%.
- Tuesday: +2.57%. Range today $254.45–$261.88. YTD −26.9%.
- It is 3.6% below its 10/5 close.
OKLO $27.12, −0.77%.
- Tuesday: +5.36%. Over two days: +4.6%. YTD −62.2%.
- It is 6.8% above Monday’s $25.39 low.
SMR $5.67, −0.53%.
- Tuesday: +8.16%. Over two days: +7.6%. Volume today was about 0.5× average. YTD −60.0%.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

LITE $913.95, +5.52%.
- Tuesday: +5.88%. Over two days: +11.7%.
- It closed at its highest level since 10/13, 20.0% below its $1,143.00 record. YTD +148.0%.
- After the bell it traded up about 11% on the Marvell report. That would put it above $1,000 for the first time since 10/12.
AAOI $82.22, +6.85%.
- Tuesday: +6.96%. It closed at its high and at its highest level since 10/15. YTD +135.9%.
GLW $131.20, +3.88%.
- Tuesday: −1.13%. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +49.8%.
CRDO $173.69, +3.74%.
- Tuesday: +10.77%. It has recovered 17.9% from Friday’s post-news low of $147.29. YTD +20.7%.
CIEN $363.21, +3.43%.
- It closed at its highest level since 10/13. YTD +55.3%.
COHR $239.59, +1.61%.
- Tuesday: +6.45%. It closed at its highest level since 10/15. YTD +29.8%.
Since Friday (three sessions): optics +15.7%, against +6.9% for the nuclear basket.
Since 10/6: optics −24.5%, against −18.7% for the nuclear basket. Both have recovered about 7–10 points from last week’s lows.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 10/28. After-hours follow-through on GOOGL, MSFT and the LITE/MRVL report
Thu 10/29: AMZN Q3 · RDDT · ECB and Bank of Japan decisions this week
Fri 10/30: CCJ Q3, the first quarterly report from a basket company in this run
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3

06 · Desk Read

i. This rebound started with physical uranium. Last week’s argument was that physical uranium was holding while the equities fell. On Tuesday, uranium itself rose: NAV +1.08%, implied spot at a new high in our log, and the SPUT discount 197bp narrower. The names closest to the commodity rose the most (LEU and UEC up 12–14% over two days, CCJ +6%). The developers rose on Tuesday and gave some back today. That’s different from the AI-driven rallies of 10/19, 10/21 and 10/26, which never reached the fuel names. The open question for Friday is whether CCJ’s comments on contracting and pricing back up what the market is now pricing.

ii. The Fed’s dissents leaned hawkish, but this market barely reacted. Two officials wanted a hike, and the 10-yr rose 6bp. The basket still rose 1%. That fits what we’ve seen since 10/22: rates aren’t the main driver for these names right now. The commodity is, and so is the AI capex debate.

iii. The hyperscaler reports pointed in different directions, and once again power didn’t trade on them.Alphabet’s signal of a much bigger 2027 budget is, on paper, the strongest demand signal for power this month. Microsoft spending less than expected points the other way. After hours, the market moved GOOGL, MSFT and LITE sharply and left CEG, VST and the nuclear names roughly where they closed. AMZN tomorrow is the last big capex report before CCJ on Friday.

Corrections

LEU’s 10/26 low: revised in the consolidated data to $96.80 (not $96.89).
UEC’s 10/23 low: the $6.75 print flagged in Edition 022 is still in the data and still unconfirmed. Since then UEC has traded as low as $7.14 (10/26).

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Two-day and three-day figures compound the daily moves. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Highest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. After-hours prices were pulled at about 6:45pm ET and are thinly traded. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Mon, 26 Oct 2026 22:40:36 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 022 · Monday, October 26, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

The AI trade bounced after Anthropic publicly filed its S-1 for a Nasdaq listing, but the gains went to optics, not power. Optics rose +5.23% (LITE +8.19%) and the SOX +2.82%. The five-name nuclear basket rose only +0.27%. LEU closed at $98.44, below half of its $199.64 offering price, and OKLO and SMR closed at their lowest levels in a year. BWXT rose +3.15% and retook first place in our ranking.

The S&P rose +0.70%, the Nasdaq +0.82% and the Dow +0.28%. VIX fell to 18.39. The filing reported first-half revenue of $16.3B and up to $120.5B of compute commitments through 2029 (per press reports of the S-1). That lifted chips: NVDA +2.4% and MU +3.0%. Two financing headlines pulled the other way. META said it plans to raise up to $95B in equity for AI infrastructure. Elon Musk said many neocloud companies could collapse. Oil eased on hopes of talks between the U.S. and Iran; WTI fell −1.8% to about $101.40. The 10-yr was flat at 4.99%. The FOMC starts tomorrow.

The basket’s split followed the same line. BWXT, a supplier with a backlog and cash flow, rose +3.15% and closed at its high. CCJ (+0.60%) and UEC (+1.22%) rose slightly. The developers and LEU fell: OKLO −1.56%, SMR −2.04%, LEU −3.91%. CEG was little changed (−0.38%).

Three takeaways

AI optimism isn’t reaching power. On each of the three days since 10/19 that the AI trade rose, optics beat the nuclear basket by 2.9–5.0 points. Today the gap was +5.2% against +0.3%. Investors buying AI are buying compute and networking suppliers, not the generators or the reactors.
Financing is now the main question in the AI trade. META’s $95B equity raise, SpaceX’s $40B of debt for chips, and Musk’s warning about neoclouds all pointed the same way. Within nuclear, the companies that already have cash flow rose (BWXT +3.2%), while the pre-revenue developers and LEU set new lows.
The ranking has a new leader again. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: BWXT ~−40%, CEG ~−46%, CCJ ~−151%, UEC ~−251%, LEU ~−346%, OKLO ~−389%, SMR ~−709%. The groups held for a fifteenth session: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket +0.27%. S&P +0.70%. Optics +5.23%. SOX +2.82%
LEU $98.44, its first close below $100 and 50.7% below its $199.64 offering. Its intraday low was $96.89
Lowest closes in a year: LEU $98.44 · OKLO $25.94 · SMR $5.27. OKLO set a new 52-week low of $25.39
BWXT +3.15% to $131.20
META announced an equity raise of up to $95B. Market odds of a hike at this week’s FOMC are about 10%
SPUT discount −13.95% (Friday data). NAV fell for a second straight day, to $21.56
10-yr 4.99% (flat) · VIX 18.39 (−5.4%) · WTI ~$101.40 (−1.8%)

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,361.58, +146.42 (+0.28%)
S&P 500 7,676.77, +53.09 (+0.70%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,169.38, +214.04 (+0.82%)
Russell 2000 2,786.42, +10.52 (+0.38%)
Anthropic’s S-1 (as reported; see notes):
- Anthropic publicly filed to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.
- Reported figures: H1 2026 revenue of $16.3B (against $4.6B for all of 2025), H1 AI infrastructure spending of $9B, and up to $120.5B of commitments with SpaceX’s AI unit through 2029.
- No offering date or valuation was given.
AI financing:
- META plans to raise up to $95B in equity: $35B through underwritten offerings and $60B through an at-the-market program. The stock fell −1.88% to $630.56.
- SpaceX lined up $40B of debt to buy AI chips.
- Neocloud stocks fell after Musk said many of them could collapse.
Chips: the SOX rose +2.82%. NVDA +2.39% ($216.00), MU +2.98% ($903.70), TSM +1.40% ($424.37). TSLA rose about 6%.
Fed: the FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with the decision Wednesday afternoon. Market odds of a hike are about 10% (one report on Friday had about 5%). Markets broadly expect a hold, and some expect a “hawkish pause.” The ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan also meet this week.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.99%, about flat. The 2-yr rose about 3bp to roughly 4.71%, so the curve flattened.
Oil: WTI fell about −1.8% to $101.40, on hopes for easing U.S.–Iran tensions after mediation visits to Tehran. Reported Brent levels differed by source, from about $110 to $115 (see notes).
Volatility and gold: VIX closed at 18.39 (−5.4%). Gold was about $4,025–4,030.
Power: XLU −0.02%, VST +1.12% ($141.73), NRG +1.41% ($93.61).

02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

LEU $98.44, −3.91%.
- It fell to a new 52-week low of $96.89 and had its first close below $100, its lowest close in a year.
- It is now 50.7% below the $199.64 offering price, so it has lost more than half its value since the offering.
- Volume was about 1.1× its 50-day average. YTD −59.4%. Since 10/6, −36.0%.
UEC $7.44, +1.22%.
- Range $7.14–$7.51. Volume was about 0.8× average. YTD −36.3%.
CCJ $79.07, +0.60%.
- Range $77.27–$79.59. It closed 2.3% above its low and near its high, and held above Friday’s $76.92 low.
- Volume was about 0.75× average. YTD −13.6%. CCJ reports Q3 on Friday 10/30.
URA $34.36, +0.73%. YTD −19.6%.

SPUT

Friday 10/23 print:
- NAV $21.56 (−0.14%), its second straight decline. NAV has gone $21.61 → $21.59 → $21.56.
- Price $18.55. Discount −13.95%.
- Implied spot about $89.80/lb, down from the $90.02 peak.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.94% to $18.91. If NAV held at $21.56, the discount would be about −12.3%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.65/lb.
What this means: the vehicle’s price is recovering while the uranium it holds slips slightly. The gap between the two is narrowing from both sides.

03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

BWXT $131.20, +3.15%.
- Range $127.70–$131.31. It closed 11 cents below its high. Volume was about 0.9× average.
- It was the best performer in the basket and retook first place in the ranking. YTD −24.1%.
CEG $252.48, −0.38%.
- Range $249.20–$255.62. It closed 9 cents above its 7/17 close ($252.39).
- YTD −28.5%. Since 10/6, −16.0%.
OKLO $25.94, −1.56%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $25.39 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
- Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −63.9%. Since 10/6, −32.7%.
SMR $5.27, −2.04%.
- It closed at its lowest level in a year. Its intraday low ($5.23) stayed above Friday’s $5.20.
- Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −62.8%. Since 10/6, −34.3%.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

LITE $818.10, +8.19%.
- Range $756.00–$840.47. Volume was 6.01M, about 1.3× average. YTD +122.0%.
- It is 28.4% below its $1,143.00 record.
AAOI $71.94, +6.56%. Range $66.51–$74.39. YTD +106.4%.
COHR $221.50, +5.83%. Range $208.86–$225.66. YTD +20.0%.
CIEN $335.93, +4.89%. It reached $345.48 intraday. YTD +43.6%.
GLW $127.74, +3.27%. Volume was 13.1M, about 1.55× average. YTD +45.9%.
CRDO $151.15, +2.62%.
- It was the weakest name in the group, a day after its −9.5% drop on competition news. YTD +5.0%.
The pattern: every optics name rose, and the larger optical-component names (LITE, AAOI, COHR) led. A brokerage’s new coverage of LITE was among the reported catalysts; we’ve left it out under our no-ratings policy.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −31.2% on average, against −23.7% for the nuclear basket.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 10/26
Tue 10/27: FOMC meeting begins
Wed 10/28: FOMC decision. MSFT and GOOGL report after the close
Thu 10/29: AMZN Q3 · RDDT
Fri 10/30: CCJ Q3, the first quarterly report from a basket company in this run
This week: ECB, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan decisions · GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3

06 · Desk Read

i. The AI rebound keeps going to compute and networking, not power. We’ve now had three days since 10/19 when the AI trade rose (10/19, 10/21 and today). On each of them, optics beat the nuclear basket by 2.9–5.0 points. CEG joined in once (10/21) and gave it all back the next day. Today Anthropic’s filing put a new, large compute commitment on the record, and the money went to chips and optics. Power demand doesn’t automatically follow AI spending, at least not in how the market is pricing it this month. It’s now a separate question.

ii. The market is sorting companies by financing, and nuclear is splitting the same way. META’s $95B equity raise, SpaceX’s $40B in debt and Musk’s warning about neoclouds all raised the same question: who pays for the buildout, and how? Suppliers that get paid in cash today (chips, optics, and in our coverage BWXT) rose. Companies that need capital to build fell. In nuclear, that’s OKLO, SMR and LEU, which all set new lows. BWXT’s +3.2% move back to first place fits that pattern. So does LEU’s close below half its offering price.

iii. This week is the busiest of the run. In order:

FOMC on Wednesday. A hold is expected, with about 10% odds of a hike.
MSFT and GOOGL on Wednesday night, and AMZN on Thursday. This is the main hyperscaler capex read.
CCJ on Friday, the first fundamental report from inside the basket.

Meanwhile, physical uranium has slipped for two days (NAV −0.24% in total) even as the SPUT units recovered. CCJ’s comments on contracting and pricing are the first company-level read on whether the weakness in the equities matches anything in the actual uranium market.

Corrections

UEC’s 10/23 low: the consolidated data now shows a low of $6.75, not the $7.19 we printed in Edition 021. That print is 4.5% below the close (and the open), so it may be an outlier trade. We are treating $7.14 (today) and $7.19 as the levels to watch until the exchange confirms it.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Fri, 23 Oct 2026 22:25:35 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 021 · Friday, October 23, 2026 · Post-close · Week in Review
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

For the first time in this run, all five names in the nuclear basket set new 52-week lows in the same session: CCJ $76.92, UEC $7.19, OKLO $26.07, SMR $5.20 and BWXT $123.05. LEU traded below $100 intraday ($99.33). The basket fell only −0.94% and most names recovered from their lows, so today was another step lower, not a collapse. Brent settled at $116.72, a six-month high, and the Dow fell −1.23%.

Oil drove most of the session. Brent rose for a third straight week, and WTI rose about 4% to just over $103, on escalating Middle East fighting and attacks near the Red Sea. The Dow fell −1.23% (−653 points), the S&P −0.52% to its lowest close since 9/16, and the Nasdaq −0.21% to its lowest since 8/3. The 10-yr rose 4bp to 4.99%, still below 5%. Market odds of an October Fed hike fell to about 5%, from 15% earlier in the week.

Optics fell −1.69%, but almost all of that was CRDO, which fell −9.51% to its lowest close since April. A competitor’s CEO said rivals will gain ground in its active electrical cable business. An independent channel check found limited near-term deployment of 1.6T cables. CRDO also disclosed insider sales under pre-arranged plans. The rest of optics was roughly flat. SPUT units rose +1.37% after the discount touched −15.23% on Thursday’s data.

Three takeaways

The whole basket made new lows together, on mostly light volume. OKLO traded at 0.63× its 50-day average, SMR 0.61× and UEC 0.72×. LEU, at 1.45×, was the exception. BWXT closed 3.4% above its low and CEG 2.5% above its. The selling is steady but not heavy.
This week, rates didn’t explain the moves; AI capex did. The 10-yr fell 11bp for the week, and the basket fell −6.25%. Utilities rose +0.8%, while generators fell (VST −7.8%, NRG −11.0%, CEG −6.6%). The market is discounting power demand from hyperscalers, not the cost of capital.
The ranking held for a fourteenth session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−43%, BWXT ~−79%, CCJ ~−160%, UEC ~−263%, LEU ~−313%, OKLO ~−373%, SMR ~−677%. The order is the same as it has been, with owners and suppliers first, fuel second and developers last.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket −0.94% today and −6.25% for the week · S&P −0.52% today and −0.47% for the week
New 52-week lows: CCJ $76.92 · UEC $7.19 · OKLO $26.07 · SMR $5.20 · BWXT $123.05 · LEU $99.33 · URA $33.37
CEG $253.45, its lowest close since 7/17. LEU is 48.7% below its $199.64 offering price
Optics −1.69% today and −8.7% for the week. CRDO −9.51%
Brent $116.72, a six-month high. 10-yr 4.99%. VIX 19.45
SPUT discount −15.23% (Thursday data). NAV fell −0.10%, its first decline in our log

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,215.16, −652.82 (−1.23%)
S&P 500 7,623.68, −39.75 (−0.52%), its lowest close since 9/16
Nasdaq Composite 25,955.34, −53.52 (−0.21%), its lowest close since 8/3
Russell 2000 2,775.90, −8.13 (−0.29%)
Oil: December Brent settled at $116.72, a six-month high and its third straight weekly gain. WTI rose about 4% to just over $103. Traders priced in escalating Middle East fighting and attacks near the Red Sea. Airlines fell.
Rates and the Fed:
- The 10-yr closed at 4.99% (+4bp), a day after its biggest one-day drop in more than two years.
- Market odds of a hike at the Oct 27–28 FOMC fell to about 5%, from about 15% earlier in the week and 37% at the end of September.
AI and chips:
- The SOX rose +0.44%. MU rose +2.46% and TSM +1.49%.
- NVDA fell −0.59% to $210.96, its lowest close since 9/14. META fell −0.96% to $642.62.
- Concern about financing costs kept pressure on CoreWeave and similar companies.
- SK Hynix shelved a planned U.S. listing of its Solidigm unit, citing market conditions.
Movers:
- Cybersecurity was strong again, with SAIL, NET and PANW each up more than 7%.
- AXP fell about 3% after announcing roughly 3,500 job cuts and missing on revenue.
- Telecom stocks fell after reports that SpaceX is in talks to lease space on 80,000 cell sites.
Power: XLU −0.72% to $42.56, VST −0.48% to $140.16, NRG −2.19% to $92.31 (its lowest close in a year).
Volatility: VIX closed at 19.45 (+2.2%), with an intraday high of 20.66.

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

BWXT $127.19, −0.09%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $123.05, then closed 3.4% above it, at its lowest close in a year.
- Volume was about 0.9× its 50-day average. YTD −26.4%. It is 6.0% below its 10/5 close.
CEG $253.45, −0.69%.
- Range $247.25–$256.79. It closed 2.5% above its low, at its lowest close since 7/17.
- Market cap is about $90B. YTD −28.3%. Since 10/6, −15.6%.
OKLO $26.35, −2.44%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $26.07 and closed at its lowest level in a year. It was the basket’s worst performer today.
- Volume was about 0.6× average. YTD −63.3%. Since 10/6, −31.7%.
SMR $5.38, unchanged.
- It set a new 52-week low of $5.20, then closed at $5.38, the same as Thursday’s year-low close.
- Volume was 21.6M, about 0.6× average. YTD −62.0%.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

LEU $102.45, −1.63%.
- It traded as low as $99.33, its first trade below $100, and closed at its lowest level in a year.
- Volume was 1.10M, about 1.45× average, the heaviest relative volume in the basket.
- It is 48.7% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −57.8%. Since 10/6, −33.4%.
UEC $7.35, −1.74%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $7.19, below the $7.27 low of 10/15 that we have been watching. It closed at its lowest level in a year.
- Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −37.1%.
CCJ $78.60, −0.42%.
- It set a new 52-week low of $76.92, below the $77.70 low from earlier in the year. It closed at its lowest level in a year.
- Volume was 3.10M, about 1.0× average. YTD −14.1%. CCJ reports Q3 on 10/30.
URA $34.11, +0.06%. It set a new 52-week low of $33.37 and closed above it. YTD −20.2%.

SPUT

Thursday 10/22 print:
- NAV $21.59 (−0.10%). That is the first daily decline in our log; NAV had been flat or up since 10/9.
- Price $18.30. Discount −15.23%, within 28bp of the −15.51% low from 10/14.
- Implied spot about $89.93/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.37% to $18.55. If NAV held at $21.59, the discount would be about −14.1%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $78.14/lb.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

CRDO $147.29, −9.51%.
- It opened at $150.44 (−7.6%), fell to $142.89, and closed at its lowest level since 4/13.
- Volume was 12.6M, about 1.6× average. YTD +2.4%, which is close to erasing the year’s gain. Since 10/6, −33.3%.
- The reported causes were factual, not ratings:
  - MaxLinear’s CEO said rivals expect to gain share in active electrical cables, where Credo is estimated to hold 93–99% of the market.
  - An Edgewater Research channel check found “limited evidence” of near-term 1.6T AEC deployment at the largest AI programs, and cited a Cisco 1.6T program that may use other suppliers’ chips.
  - Credo’s CEO and CTO sold shares on 10/19–20 under pre-arranged trading plans.
AAOI $67.51, −0.82%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/26. YTD +93.7%. Since 10/6, −48.1%.
CIEN $320.26, −0.74%. It closed at its lowest level since 9/14. YTD +36.9%.
GLW $123.69, −0.24%. It closed at its lowest level since 3/6. YTD +41.3%.
LITE $756.17, +0.48%.
- It traded as low as $736.01, 35.6% below its $1,143.00 record, and closed above that.
- YTD +105.2%.
COHR $209.29, +0.71%. Range $203.55–$215.38. YTD +13.4%.
The pattern: excluding CRDO, the other five optics names averaged about −0.1% today. The drop in the group came from one company’s news about competition and adoption.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −34.6% on average, against −24.0% for the nuclear basket.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 10/23
Oct 27–28: FOMC. Market odds of a hike are now about 5%
Late Oct: other hyperscaler capex reports (dates unconfirmed) · GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 29: AMZN Q3
Oct 30: CCJ Q3, the first quarterly report from a basket company since the run began
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3

06 · Desk Read

i. New lows without heavy selling. All five basket names set 52-week lows in one session, a first for this run, but the basket fell less than 1%. Four of the seven tracked names traded below average volume. BWXT and CEG closed 2.5–3.4% above their lows. The prices keep finding new lows, but nobody is selling in size. We’d change that read on a day with heavy volume, at about 2× average or more, and closes at the lows. The two candidates are a capitulation day or a turn.

ii. This week, AI capex explained the moves and rates didn’t. The 10-yr fell 11bp, the odds of an October hike collapsed to about 5%, and utilities rose. The nuclear basket still fell 6.25% and power generators fell 7–11%. The rates channel we tracked on 10/14 and 10/15 has stopped working. The market is now pricing these stocks on whether hyperscaler spending turns into revenue that pays for itself. AMZN (10/29) is the next big data point. CCJ (10/30) is the first fundamental report from inside the basket.

iii. Physical uranium is starting to slip, a little. NAV fell for the first time in our log, by just −0.10%, and implied spot fell about $0.09 to $89.93/lb. The SPUT discount came within 28bp of its widest level. The move is small, but it’s the first time in two weeks that the physical side has moved in the same direction as the equities, even slightly. If NAV keeps slipping, the “physical held while equities fell” divergence we’ve been tracking would start to close, and in the wrong direction.

07 · Week in Review (10/19–10/23)

What happened each day

Mon 10/19: basket −1.43%, optics +1.70%. Chips bounced while utilities fell 2%. CEG closed below its 10/5 level for the first time.
Tue 10/20: basket −0.64%, optics −0.86%. The Russell 2000 rose 1.65%. BWXT became the last name to fall below its 10/5 close. SMR set a new low.
Wed 10/21: basket +0.58%, optics +3.44%. CEG rose 4.6% and got back above its 10/5 close for one day. After the bell, META raised its 2026 capex floor to $135B.
Thu 10/22: basket −3.93%, optics −10.92%. META fell 7%. The 10-yr fell about 20bp. Utilities rose 2.1% while generators sold off.
Fri 10/23: basket −0.94%, optics −1.69%. All five basket names set new 52-week lows. CRDO fell 9.5%. Brent settled at $116.72.

The week, from Friday 10/16 to today

Indices: Dow +0.41% · S&P −0.47% · Nasdaq −0.71% · Russell 2000 +2.00%
Rates: 10-yr 5.10% → 4.99% (−11bp). The week’s range was 4.94–5.15%.
Volatility: VIX 19.99 → 19.45
Nuclear basket: −6.25%, compounding the daily moves
Nuclear names: LEU −10.9% · SMR −7.7% · BWXT −7.2% · UEC −7.1% · CEG −6.6% · OKLO −5.8% · URA −3.7% · CCJ −3.6%
Optics: −8.7%, compounding the daily moves. CRDO −13.2% · AAOI −10.7% · COHR −10.1% · LITE −8.3% · GLW −6.3% · CIEN −3.7%
Power and AI: XLU +0.8% · VST −7.8% · NRG −11.0% · META −9.4% · SOX −3.2% · NVDA −1.5%
SPUT: units −1.4% (18.81 → 18.55). NAV $21.61 → $21.59. The discount went from −12.95% to −15.23% (Thursday data).

Two weeks since 10/9, measuring the drawdown from the Google deal

Nuclear basket −18.4%
Optics −30.9%
S&P −2.4% · Nasdaq −5.2%

What we learned this week

Lower rates no longer help the developers. The market is pricing them on AI capex.
The market split regulated utilities from AI-exposed generators.
META’s capex increase was read as a cost risk, not as a sign of power demand.
The cumulative ranking held for all five sessions.
Physical uranium showed its first small sign of weakness.

Corrections

LEU 10/22 low: revised in the consolidated data to $102.16 (not $102.21). The conclusion is unchanged.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. Weekly and two-week basket and optics figures compound the daily moves. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its 10/12 reported cap. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Thu, 22 Oct 2026 22:15:38 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 020 · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

META turned last night’s after-hours gain into a −6.98% close, and the AI trade broke again. The SOX fell −6.72%. Optics fell −10.92%, its worst day of this run. The 10-yr fell about 20bp to 4.95% and the nuclear basket still fell −3.93%. Investors bought utilities (XLU +2.07%) and sold AI-power generators: VST −9.81%, BWXT −5.78%, CEG −5.74%, NRG −5.43%. Every tracked nuclear name except CEG closed at its lowest level in a year.

META’s Q3 revenue beat. Then it announced plans to issue non-voting stock alongside a 2-for-1 split, which revived concern about how much capital it is committing. As the first hyperscaler to report, it set the tone for the question of whether AI earnings justify AI spending. The Nasdaq fell −2.60% and the S&P −1.21%, while the Dow was flat (+0.02%) and the Russell 2000 rose (+0.11%). Investors moved into bonds: the 10-yr closed below 5% for the first time since September, on what was tracking as its biggest one-day drop in more than two years. Brent hit about $111–113, its highest since May. Gold fell 2.6% and VIX rose 14% to 19.03.

Inside the nuclear basket, today’s order ran opposite to the usual one. The names that have held up best fell the most: BWXT −5.78% (new 52-week low, 1.4× volume) and CEG −5.74%. The developers fell the least: OKLO −2.60% and SMR −2.18%. Both developers set new lows at the open and then closed above their opening prices.

Three takeaways

Rates fell 20bp and nuclear still fell 3.9%. On 10/14 and 10/15 the developers tracked rates almost one for one. Today the 10-yr had its biggest drop in our window and the basket fell anyway. The selling is now about AI demand, not about rates.
Investors bought utilities and sold generators. XLU rose to its highest close since 9/9. CEG lagged XLU by about 781bp and VST by about 1,190bp. NRG closed at its lowest level in a year. The market is separating regulated utilities from power companies whose stocks priced in AI demand.
The cumulative ranking held for a thirteenth session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−38%, BWXT ~−78%, CCJ ~−154%, UEC ~−246%, LEU ~−300%, OKLO ~−347%, SMR ~−677%. The order is the same as before, even though today’s daily moves ran in the opposite order. CEG is back below its 10/5 close after one session above it.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket −3.93%. S&P −1.21%. Gap −272bp. The basket is −18.1% below its 10/5 close
Optics, six names −10.92%, the worst day of the run. SOX −6.72%
New 52-week lows: BWXT $124.79 · LEU $102.21 · OKLO $26.31 · SMR $5.23 · URA $33.91
Lowest closes in a year: CCJ $78.93 · UEC $7.48 and every name above
META −6.98% to $648.85. VST −9.81%. XLU +2.07%
10-yr 4.95% (about −20bp). VIX 19.03 (+14.1%). Brent ~$111–113
SPUT units −2.97% to $18.30. Estimated discount about −15.3%

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,867.98, +11.89 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 7,663.43, −93.74 (−1.21%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,008.86, −694.00 (−2.60%), its lowest close since 9/16
Russell 2000 2,784.03, +3.01 (+0.11%)
META:
- It closed −6.98% at $648.85, after trading near $727 after hours last night. It opened at $675.79 and fell to $639.69.
- On top of the Q3 results, it announced plans to issue non-voting stock and a 2-for-1 split.
- Volume was 40.4M, about 2.1× average. YTD −1.7%.
Chips:
- The SOX fell −6.72% to its lowest close since 7/29.
- NVDA fell −4.40% (to $212.21), MU −6.26% (to $856.49) and TSM −4.52% (to $412.35).
- LRCX, AMAT and KLAC fell about 6–9% at their worst. CoreWeave fell about 10%.
TSLA: adjusted EPS was $0.48 against $0.44 expected. Revenue was $28.05B against $28.13B expected. The stock closed −3.08%.
Rates:
- The 10-yr closed at 4.95% (about −20bp), its first close below 5% since September and its lowest since 9/17.
- Intraday reports called it on pace for its biggest one-day drop in more than two years. The 30-yr was about 5.3%.
- Investors bought bonds as a safe haven while worries about slower AI buildouts outweighed worries about inflation from oil.
Data: initial jobless claims were 194K, the fewest in three months.
Oil: Brent rose about 2–4% to roughly $111–113, its highest since May. That followed attacks on a Saudi airport and an Aramco field, and a New York Times report that the U.S. and Israel are planning renewed strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms. December WTI was about $98–99.
Other assets: gold fell about −2.6% and bitcoin about −4%. VIX closed at 19.03 (+14.1%), with an intraday high of 20.31.
Power:
- XLU rose +2.07% to $42.87, its highest close since 9/9.
- VST fell −9.81% to $140.83 on 12.4M shares, about 2.3× average.
- NRG fell −5.43% to $94.38, its lowest close in a year.

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

BWXT $127.30, −5.78%.
- It opened at $132.19 (−2.2%) and fell to a new 52-week low of $124.79, well below the prior $131.60. It closed at its lowest level in a year.
- Volume was 1.62M, about 1.4× its 50-day average. It was the basket’s worst performer today. YTD −26.3%.
- It is now −5.9% below its 10/5 close and −12.6% since 10/6. We found no company release.
CEG $255.21, −5.74%.
- It opened at $269.00 and fell all session, closing 5.1% below the open. Range $253.37–$269.02.
- It closed at its lowest level since 9/30, and 4.6% below its 10/5 close. Wednesday’s move back above that level lasted one day.
- Market cap is about $90B. Volume was about 1.1× average. YTD −27.8%.
OKLO $27.01, −2.60%.
- It opened at $26.44 (−4.7%) and set a new 52-week low of $26.31, then closed 2.2% above its open, though still at its lowest close in a year.
- Volume was about 0.8× average. YTD −62.4%.
SMR $5.38, −2.18%.
- It opened at $5.26 (−4.4%) and set a new 52-week low of $5.23, then closed 2.3% above its open, at its lowest close in a year.
- Volume was about 0.8× average. YTD −62.0%. Since 10/6, −32.9%.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

UEC $7.48, −5.32%.
- Range $7.40–$7.77. This was its lowest close in a year, below the $7.70 close of 10/14. It held above the $7.27 intraday low from 10/15.
- YTD −36.0%. It is −20.0% below its 10/5 close.
LEU $104.15, −4.37%.
- It opened at $104.54 (−4.0%) and set a new 52-week low of $102.21. It closed at its lowest level in a year.
- It is 47.8% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −57.1%.
CCJ $78.93, −3.77%.
- Range $78.27–$80.46. This was its lowest close in a year, below the $79.44 close of 11/21/2025. It held above the $77.70 intraday low from earlier in the year.
- Volume was 4.05M, about 1.4× average. YTD −13.7%.
URA $34.09, −4.11%. It set a new 52-week low of $33.91 and closed at its lowest level in a year. YTD −20.2%.

SPUT

Wednesday 10/21 print:
- NAV $21.61 (unchanged). Price $18.86. Discount −12.73%, matching our estimate.
- Implied spot about $90.02/lb, unchanged for three sessions.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −2.97% to $18.30 and closed at the day’s low. That’s the lowest close since 10/14. If NAV held at $21.61, the discount would be about −15.3% (our estimate), close to the −15.51% low of 10/14. At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $77.09/lb.
What this means: for the first time this week, the physical vehicle sold off with the equities. Uranium itself (NAV) is unchanged. What fell was the price investors will pay for exposure to it.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

COHR $207.82, −12.51%.
- Range $204.38–$224.56. It closed at its lowest level since 1/26.
- Volume was 12.4M, about 1.8× average. YTD +12.6%. Since 10/6, −38.6%.
AAOI $68.07, −11.96%.
- Range $66.33–$73.15. It closed at its lowest level since 2/26. Volume was about 1.5× average.
- YTD +95.3%. Since 10/6, −47.7%.
LITE $752.54, −11.54%.
- It opened at $804.06 (−5.5%) and fell to $746.23. It closed at its lowest level since 7/31.
- It is 34.2% below its $1,143.00 record. YTD +104.2%.
CIEN $322.64, −10.71%.
- It closed at its lowest level since 9/14, giving back all of Wednesday’s +5.7% and more. YTD +38.0%.
CRDO $162.77, −10.70%.
- It closed at its lowest level since 9/16. YTD +13.1%.
GLW $123.99, −8.10%.
- It closed at its lowest level since 3/6. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +41.6%.
The pattern: every name closed within 2.7% of its low, and volume was above average across the group. The previous worst day of the run was 10/14 (−9.21%). Wednesday’s leaders, CRDO and CIEN, gave back all of that day’s gains.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −33.4% on average, against −23.3% for the nuclear basket.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 10/22
Fri 10/23: our Week in Review edition
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 27–28: FOMC. Market pricing favored a hold before today’s 20bp drop in yields
Oct 29: AMZN Q3, the next hyperscaler capex read
Oct 30: CCJ Q3
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3

06 · Desk Read

i. Last night we asked whether a bigger META capex number would lift power names or only chips. The answer was neither. META spent more and the market treated it as a cost, not as a sign of demand. The selling went straight through the whole AI-infrastructure chain: META −7.0%, SOX −6.7%, optics −10.9%, VST −9.8%, CEG −5.7%, BWXT −5.8%. Our framing in Edition 019, that every capex dollar is future power demand, isn’t how the market is pricing it right now. What matters now is whether the AI spending will pay off.

ii. Falling rates didn’t help nuclear today. Since 10/14 we’ve read the developers as the most rate-sensitive names. Today the 10-yr had its biggest drop in our window and the basket still fell 3.9%. The developers fell the least, though: OKLO and SMR closed above their opening prices after setting new lows, while BWXT and CEG closed near their lows. One way to read it: lower rates did help the long-duration names a bit, but selling tied to AI demand hit the names whose stocks priced in the most AI demand. That turned today’s daily order upside down. The cumulative ranking hasn’t changed.

iii. Investors separated utilities from generators. XLU rose 2.1% to its highest close since September, while CEG, VST and NRG fell 5–10%. Investors bought rate-sensitive regulated utilities and sold the generators whose stocks priced in AI demand. CEG is now 4.6% below its 10/5 close, and NRG is at its lowest close of the year. Amazon (10/29) is the next hyperscaler capex report. Until then, the AI-power group looks likely to keep trading on how investors feel about AI spending, not on the inputs, which haven’t moved: implied spot is unchanged at about $90/lb.

Corrections

META after-hours move (Edition 019): we reported META up about 4–6% after hours on Wednesday. That gain reversed overnight; META opened −3.1% and closed −7.0%. The after-hours prints were real, but they didn’t hold.
META Q3 capex: we cited $34.91B, including finance leases, from one write-up. Another source cites $41.68B. Treat the Q4 implied range ($49–59B) as approximate until it’s checked against META’s 10-Q.
10/21 revisions in the consolidated data: LEU’s low was $107.90 and CIEN’s high $363.97. None of this changes the conclusions.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its 10/12 reported cap. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Wed, 21 Oct 2026 22:32:32 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 019 · Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

CEG rose +4.60% to $270.74, back above its $267.62 close of 10/5, the day before Google’s reactor deal. It’s the first tracked name to lose that level and then win it back, and it retook first place in the ranking. Power generators rallied with it (VST +3.9%, NRG +2.0%) while the utilities sector barely moved (+0.3%). Inside the basket, SMR and LEU still closed at their lowest levels in a year. After the bell, META raised the low end of its 2026 capex range to $135B.

The S&P (+0.58%) rose for a third straight session to its highest close since 10/13. The Nasdaq rose +1.05% and the SOX +1.96%. The Dow rose +0.69% to its highest close since 9/4. SpaceX rose +7.8% after its earnings, and Super Micro raised its fiscal Q1 revenue outlook to $18.5–19.5B from $14.5–15.5B. The 10-yr rose 3bp to 5.15%. Brent briefly traded near $110 after reports of an attack on an Aramco field.

The five-name nuclear basket rose +0.58%, exactly matching the S&P, but the spread inside it was about 6 points. CEG +4.60% and CCJ +1.88% led. SMR −1.43% and LEU −0.88% set new lowest closes. Optics rose +3.44%, led by CRDO (+6.28%) and CIEN (+5.67%), which both had their highest closes since 10/13.

Three takeaways

CEG moved back above its 10/5 close, and the market bought generators, not utilities. CEG +4.6%, VST +3.9% and NRG +2.0%, against XLU +0.3%. That points to buying tied to AI power demand, not a rotation into defensive stocks. Volume was below average (CEG 0.85×), so we’d want to see it hold.
The ranking now has CEG back on top. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~10%, BWXT ~−2%, CCJ ~−98%, UEC ~−191%, LEU ~−262%, OKLO ~−319%, SMR ~−641%. The groups held for a twelfth session: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers. The gap between the best and worst names is widening.
META’s capex guidance implies a large Q4. It has spent $85.8B through Q3, so a 2026 range of $135–145Bimplies roughly $49–59B of capex in Q4. Q3 was $34.9B, so that would be up about 41–70%. META rose about 4% in early after-hours trading. The nuclear names barely moved in thin trading (OKLO +0.3%, SMR +0.4%).

Key numbers

Nuclear basket +0.58%. S&P +0.58%. Gap 0bp. Range inside the basket: CEG +4.60% to SMR −1.43%
CEG $270.74, +1.2% above its 10/5 close. Market cap about $96B
Lowest closes in a year: SMR $5.50 · LEU $108.91. Neither broke Tuesday’s intraday low
Optics +3.44%. CRDO +6.28% · CIEN +5.67%
META 2026 capex guidance $135–145B (was $130–145B). Q3 capex $34.91B
SPUT discount −12.59% (Tuesday data). Implied spot ~$90.02/lb
10-yr 5.15% (+3bp) · VIX 16.68 (−3.6%)

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,856.09, +360.21 (+0.69%), its highest close since 9/4
S&P 500 7,757.17, +44.60 (+0.58%), its third straight gain and highest close since 10/13
Nasdaq Composite 26,702.86, +278.04 (+1.05%)
Russell 2000 2,781.02, +7.60 (+0.27%)
AI and chips:
- The SOX rose +1.96%. NVDA rose +2.54% to $221.97, MU +1.96% to $913.67 and TSM +1.60% to $431.89.
- Super Micro raised its fiscal Q1 revenue outlook to $18.5–19.5B, from $14.5–15.5B, and its gross margin outlook to 12–12.5%.
Movers:
- SpaceX rose +7.79% to $159.31 after its Q3 report. Musk said SpaceX and Tesla have formed special committees to discuss a potential merger.
- NFLX fell about 4–5% after Q4 revenue guidance of $13.44B, below the $13.51B expected.
- Cybersecurity names rose 5–7%. AT&T fell about 6%.
Power: VST rose +3.87% to $156.14 and NRG +2.00% to $99.80. XLU rose only +0.29%.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 5.15% (+3bp).
Volatility: VIX closed at 16.68, down 3.6%.
Oil: Brent traded near $110 after reports of an attack on an Aramco field. December WTI closed at $97.60 (−0.22%).
After the bell:
- META: Q3 revenue was $64.60B (+26% y/y), above its own $61–64B guidance range. Q3 capex, including finance leases, was $34.91B, up from $19.37B a year ago. It narrowed its 2026 capex range to $135–145B and gave no 2027 figure, saying only that it expects to keep investing aggressively in AI. The stock was up about 4–6% in after-hours trading.
- TSLA was roughly flat after its report.

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

CEG $270.74, +4.60%.
- It opened at $266.47 (+3.0%) and reached $273.21. Range $263.12–$273.21.
- It closed $3.12 above its 10/5 close, the first tracked name to get back above that level after falling below it. It is the only tracked name above it.
- Market cap is about $96B, up from about $92B. Volume was 2.79M, about 0.85× its 50-day average. YTD −23.4%.
- It beat XLU by about 431bp. We found no company release behind the move.
BWXT $135.11, +0.65%.
- Range $134.41–$137.80. It closed 24 cents below its 10/5 close. Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −21.8%.
OKLO $27.73, +0.91%.
- Range $27.52–$28.54. Volume was 5.99M, about 0.6× average and the lightest of the run. YTD −61.4%.
SMR $5.50, −1.43%.
- It opened at $5.67 and closed near its $5.46 low, its lowest close in a year. It held above Tuesday’s $5.33 intraday low.
- Volume was 27.2M, about 0.8× average. YTD −61.2%. Since 10/6, −31.4%.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

CCJ $82.02, +1.88%.
- Range $81.50–$82.91. It never traded below $81.50, and it closed at its highest level since 10/15.
- Volume was 2.74M, about 0.9× average. YTD −10.4%.
UEC $7.90, +0.89%.
- It opened at $8.08 and closed 2.2% below that. Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −32.4%.
LEU $108.91, −0.88%.
- It opened at $112.23 and closed 3.0% below that, at its lowest close in a year. It held above Tuesday’s $106.00 intraday low.
- It is 45.4% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −55.1%.
URA $35.55, +1.05%. YTD −16.8%.

SPUT

Tuesday 10/20 print:
- NAV $21.61 (unchanged). Price $18.89. Discount −12.59%, matching our estimate.
- Implied spot about $90.02/lb, flat.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) closed at $18.86 (−0.16%) on only about 6K units, very light trading. If NAV held at $21.61, the discount would be about −12.7% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.44/lb.
What this means: the discount has held between −12.6% and −13.2% for four sessions after narrowing from the −15.51% low on 10/14. NAV has been flat for three sessions.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

CRDO $182.28, +6.28%.
- It opened +7.3% at $184.09 and reached $189.88. It closed at its highest level since 10/13. YTD +26.7%.
CIEN $361.34, +5.67%.
- It opened +3.7% and closed 1.9% above its open, near the $363.90 high. It closed at its highest level since 10/13. YTD +54.5%.
LITE $850.70, +3.43%.
- It opened at $863.14 (+4.9%) and reached $878.90, then closed 1.4% below its open. YTD +130.8%.
- It is 25.6% below its $1,143.00 record.
COHR $237.53, +2.47%.
- It opened +3.7% and closed 1.2% below its open. YTD +28.7%.
GLW $134.92, +2.01%.
- Volume was 8.19M, about 1.0× average. YTD +54.1%.
AAOI $77.32, +0.76%.
- It opened at $80.92 (+5.4%) and closed 4.4% below that, the biggest fade from the open in the group. YTD +121.8%.
The pattern: the group opened up about 4.8% on average, and most names gave back some of that gain during the session. CIEN was the exception. The two names that sell into AI networking interconnect, CRDO and CIEN, led.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −25.3% on average, against −20.1% for the nuclear basket.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 10/21. After-hours follow-through on META and TSLA
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 27–28: FOMC. Market pricing favors a hold, with hikes priced for December and March
Oct 29: AMZN Q3
Oct 30: CCJ Q3
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3

06 · Desk Read

i. CEG’s rebound looked like a bid for power generators, not a move into defensive utilities. XLU rose only 0.3%, while CEG, VST and NRG rose 2–5%. Last Friday and Tuesday, CEG fell while utilities rose. Today it was the reverse. That fits our read from the past week that CEG trades with the AI-power group, and today that group was bought. Two caveats: CEG traded on below-average volume (0.85×), and we found no company news. One session above $267.62 doesn’t establish a trend, but it is the first break in a nine-session slide (CEG’s high close was 300.40 on 10/6).

ii. The basket matched the S&P, but the names inside it split further apart. The basket rose exactly as much as the S&P (+0.58%). Inside it, the spread was about 6 points. CEG and CCJ rallied, while SMR and LEU closed at their lowest levels in a year. The groups held for a twelfth session. The gap between the best name (CEG ~+10%) and the worst (SMR ~−641%) is now about 651 points, the widest we’ve recorded. The market keeps paying for power generation that earns cash today and keeps selling the reactors that won’t generate revenue for years.

iii. META supplied the first big-tech capex number since the selloff. Its 2026 range now starts at $135B. It has spent $85.8B through Q3, so that implies about $49–59B in Q4, against $34.9B in Q3. Every dollar of that spend needs power to run. The first after-hours reaction was muted outside META (OKLO +0.3%, SMR +0.4%, VST +0.2%, in thin trading). Tomorrow’s open will show whether a bigger capex number lifts power names again or only the chip and optics names.

Corrections

10/20 revisions in the consolidated data: AAOI opened at $75.00 (−4.1%), not $74.81 (−4.3%). CEG’s low was $257.75 and CIEN’s low $328.88. None of this changes the conclusions.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its 10/12 reported cap. META’s implied Q4 capex = 2026 guidance range − capex reported through Q3; both include finance-lease principal as reported. After-hours prices are early, thinly traded prints. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

SEQH Capital Research — Tue, 20 Oct 2026 22:28:32 GMT

Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily

Edition 018 · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research

The Tape in 60 Seconds

The rally from Google’s 20-year nuclear deal on 10/6 has now fully reversed. BWXT fell −1.17% to $134.24, its lowest close in a year, and became the last tracked name to drop below its 10/5 close. All seven tracked names are now below their pre-deal levels, and the five-name basket is 15.2% under where it started. SMR, OKLO and LEU set new 52-week lows while the Dow rose 1% and the Russell 2000 1.65%.

The broad market rallied outside big tech. Dow +1.02%, Russell 2000 +1.65%, S&P +0.28%, Nasdaq −0.02%. Earnings helped (NOC, MMM and LLY all rose), and so did crude falling back from near $110 in the morning. The nuclear basket fell −0.64% and optics −0.86%. Utilities rebounded (XLU +1.26%), but CEG fell −1.65% and lagged the sector by about 290bp. On two of the last three days, CEG has fallen while utilities rose.

Intraday, today was the reverse of Monday. Both groups opened lower and recovered. Optics opened about 2.8% lower and closed about 5.1% above its lows. LITE traded down to $785.00, 31.3% below its 10/9 record, and closed at $822.51. SMR opened −5.5% at $5.38 and closed at $5.58. The nuclear names finished on average 2.6% above their lows.

Three takeaways

Every tracked nuclear name is below its 10/5 close. Here is how far each now sits from its pre-deal close: BWXT −0.8%, CEG −3.3%, CCJ −8.0%, UEC −16.3%, LEU −22.3%, OKLO −23.6%, SMR −27.3%. The order is the same as it has been, with owners and suppliers first, fuel second and developers last. All seven are now negative.
The broad rally didn’t reach AI power. The Russell 2000 had what looked like its best day since early August (per midday reports), and healthcare, industrials and homebuilders led. The nuclear basket fell and CEG fell. The rotation went into earnings, value names and stocks that benefit from cheaper oil, not into the power trade.
SPUT’s implied spot rose to about $90.02/lb, the highest in our log, on Monday’s data. The discount was −13.19%. SPUT units have now risen for three of the last four sessions while the equities set new lows.

Key numbers

Nuclear basket −0.64%. S&P +0.28%. Dow +1.02%. Russell 2000 +1.65%
The basket is −15.2% below its 10/5 pre-deal close and −20.6% below its 10/6 high close
New 52-week lows: SMR $5.33 · OKLO $26.36 · LEU $106.00
Lowest closes in a year: BWXT $134.24 · SMR $5.58 · LEU $109.88 · URA $35.18. CCJ’s $80.51 is its lowest close since 11/21/2025
Optics −0.86%. LITE’s intraday low of $785.00 is 31.3% below its record
SPUT discount −13.19% (Monday data). Implied spot ~$90.02/lb
10-yr 5.12% (−2bp). VIX 17.31 (−6.1%)

01 · Macro Tape

Dow 52,495.88, +529.85 (+1.02%), its highest close since 9/11
S&P 500 7,712.57, +21.84 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,424.82, −6.07 (−0.02%)
Russell 2000 2,773.42, +45.12 (+1.65%). Midday reports said it was on pace for its best day since 8/4.
Breadth: about three-quarters of S&P members were trading higher at midday. The gains came from outside megacap tech. The SOX fell −0.29%, NVDA −0.29% (to $216.47) and MU −0.98% (to $896.07). TSM rose +1.16% (to $425.08).
Earnings:
- NOC: EPS $7.89 against $7.18 expected; revenue $11.12B, a slight miss. The stock rose.
- MMM rose about 6% after beating and raising guidance.
- LLY rose about 5.4% to a record high.
- GE Aerospace fell on cash-flow concerns.
- GM beat expectations and announced a $20B buyback.
- After the bell, SpaceX reported Q3 revenue of $14.58B, up 161% y/y.
Housing:
- Housing starts were 1.22M annualized (−5.2%), below the 1.30M expected.
- Single-family permits were the lowest since 2023.
- Mortgage rates were about 7.43%.
Rates and the Fed:
- The 10-yr closed at 5.12% (−2bp).
- Market pricing favors no change at the Oct 27–28 FOMC, with quarter-point hikes priced for December and March (market-implied, per reports).
Commodities:
- Front-month crude neared $110 in the morning and then fell back. December WTI was about $97.99 (−0.6%).
- Gold was about $4,141.50 (−0.45%).
Volatility: VIX closed at 17.31, down 6.1%.
Power peers: XLU +1.26%, VST +0.41%, NRG −1.55%.

02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power

BWXT $134.24, −1.17%.
- Range $133.74–$137.87. This was its lowest close in a year, 11 cents below the 9/28 close of $134.35.
- It is now $1.11 below its 10/5 close, the last tracked name to fall below its pre-deal level.
- Volume was 655K, about 0.6× its 50-day average. YTD −22.3%.
CEG $258.84, −1.65%.
- Range $257.78–$263.90. It closed at its lowest level since 10/2 ($257.49), and is 3.3% below its 10/5 close.
- Its market value is now about $92B. YTD −26.7%.
- It fell while XLU rose +1.26%, a gap of about 291bp.
SMR $5.58, −1.93%.
- It opened at $5.38 (−5.5%) and set a new 52-week low of $5.33, below last Thursday’s $5.44. It closed 4.7% above the low, but at its lowest close in a year.
- Volume was 31.4M, about 0.9× average. YTD −60.6%. Since 10/6, −30.4%.
OKLO $27.48, +0.88%.
- It opened at $26.49 (−2.8%), set a new 52-week low of $26.36, then closed 4.3% above it. It was the only basket name to finish up.
- Volume was 7.88M, about 0.8× average. YTD −61.7%.

03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle

LEU $109.88, −0.22%.
- It opened at $106.68 (−3.1%), set a new 52-week low of $106.00, then closed 3.7% above it, at its lowest close in a year.
- This was its seventh new intraday low in eight sessions.
- Volume was 924K, about 1.3× average. It was the only tracked name with above-average volume.
- It is 45.0% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −54.7%.
CCJ $80.51, −0.24%.
- Range $79.25–$81.44. This was its lowest close since 11/21/2025 for the second day running.
- It held above last Thursday’s intraday low ($78.55). Volume was 2.30M, about 0.8× average. YTD −12.0%.
UEC $7.83, −0.76%.
- Range $7.66–$8.00. It held above Thursday’s $7.27 low. YTD −33.0%.
URA $35.18, −0.26%. This was its lowest close in a year. YTD −17.7%.

SPUT

Monday 10/19 print:
- NAV $21.61 (+0.02%). Price $18.76. Discount −13.19%, in line with our −13.2% estimate.
- Implied spot is about $90.02/lb, a new high in our log. NAV YTD is +9.17%.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +0.69% to $18.89. If NAV held at $21.61, the discount would be about −12.6%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.57/lb.
What this means: since 10/9, implied spot is up about $0.30/lb and the SPUT units are down about 0.8%. Over the same period, CCJ is down 8.6%, UEC −14.8% and LEU −22.9%. Over that stretch, the equities have fallen and physical uranium hasn’t.

04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect

LITE $822.51, −1.44%.
- It opened at $816.77 (−2.1%) and fell to $785.00, its first trade below $800 since the drawdown began. That is 31.3% below its $1,143.00 record. It closed 4.8% above the low.
- It closed at its lowest level since 8/11. YTD +123.2%.
AAOI $76.74, −1.87%.
- It opened −4.3%. Range $73.05–$79.19. It closed 5.1% above its low. YTD +120.1%.
CRDO $171.51, −0.75%.
- It opened −2.6% and fell to $161.00 before closing 6.5% above that. YTD +19.2%.
CIEN $341.95, −0.65%.
- It opened −2.2%. It closed 3.9% above its low. Volume was light at 1.93M. YTD +46.2%.
GLW $132.26, −0.36%.
- It opened −2.2% and fell to $127.56 before closing 3.7% above it. YTD +51.1%.
COHR $231.80, −0.09%.
- It opened −3.1% and fell to $217.83 before closing 6.4% above it. It closed at its lowest level since 7/29. YTD +25.6%.
The pattern: the six names opened down about −2.8% on average and closed about +5.1% above their lows. Every name closed above its open. That is the reverse of Monday, when every name gapped up and faded.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −27.8% on average, against −20.6% for the nuclear basket.

05 · Catalyst Calendar

Tonight: SPUT print for 10/20
Wed 10/21: META, TSLA, IBM, TXN (after the close). META’s capex guidance is the week’s main read on demand for AI power
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 27–28: FOMC. Market pricing favors a hold, with hikes priced for December and March
Oct 29: AMZN Q3
Oct 30: CCJ Q3
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3

06 · Desk Read

i. The 10/5 baseline is gone. For two weeks we’ve measured each name by how much of Tuesday 10/6’s gain it still keeps. As of today, none do. The ranking is BWXT ~−11%, CEG ~−27%, CCJ ~−125%, UEC ~−200%, LEU ~−254%, OKLO ~−329% and SMR ~−618%. The order is the same as Friday and Monday, and the groups have held for eleven sessions: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers. What changed is that every name is now below where it started. The market hasn’t just reversed the deal rally. It has pushed the whole complex below its pre-deal levels, by 15.2% on average for the basket.

ii. The broad rally didn’t help AI power. The Russell 2000 rose 1.65%, the Dow 1.02%, and the gains came from earnings, healthcare, defense and stocks that benefit from cheaper oil. Utilities rebounded. CEG still fell, for the second time in three sessions on a day XLU rose. Our read from Monday still holds: right now the market treats CEG and the nuclear basket as part of the AI-power trade, not as utilities. META on Wednesday is the first big-tech capex update since that trade sold off.

iii. The lows are coming on light volume. BWXT set its lowest close in a year on 0.6× its average volume. CCJ was at 0.8×, OKLO 0.8× and SMR 0.9×. Only LEU traded above average. Of the levels we flagged last Thursday, SMR’s $5.44 broke (to $5.33). UEC’s $7.27 and CCJ’s $78.55 still haven’t. For the second straight session, physical uranium (implied spot ~$90/lb) and the uranium equities moved in opposite directions.

Corrections

AAOI 10/19 open: it opened at $80.00 (+5.9%), not $79.81 (+5.6%). The optics average gap at Monday’s open becomes about +4.95%.
Other 10/19 revisions in the consolidated data: GLW’s low was $130.77, CRDO’s low $168.80 and CCJ’s high $82.50. The volumes we called preliminary in Edition 017 were revised slightly higher (CCJ 1.99M, SMR 17.4M). None of this changes the conclusions.

Method

All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its 10/12 reported cap. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.