WHAT THIS REPORT ARGUES

• The core thesis is that laser-based uranium enrichment is not mainly a nuclear niche, but an overlooked future demand engine for specialized photonics systems, created by the Western nuclear fuel shortage and the rise of HALEU-hungry advanced reactors.

• SEQH frames this as the largest undiscovered photonics TAM in its coverage universe, tying a $30.5 billion per year Western enrichment market by 2035 to companies across both photonics and nuclear fuel infrastructure.

Core setup

• SEQH says two structural forces are colliding: the U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports, which removes a major source of Western enriched fuel by 2028, and the buildout of advanced reactors that need HALEU, which requires far more separative work than standard LEU.

• In the report’s base math, HALEU demand reaches a point where Western supply is short by about 738 metric tons per year by 2035, while total Western enrichment TAM reaches about $30.5 billion annually at $200 per SWU.

• The key leap is that solving this gap may require commercial-scale laser enrichment, which turns the fuel crisis into a future procurement cycle for high-performance laser systems.

Why lasers matter

• SEQH explains that SILEX-type enrichment works by exploiting the tiny absorption difference between 235235UF66​ and 238238UF66​ molecules, using mid-infrared light near 16 microns to selectively excite the target isotopologue.

• That wavelength requirement is what makes this a real photonics problem: standard fiber lasers and telecom InP lasers do not fit, while the most credible paths are tunable CO2 systems with Raman conversion or potentially future QCL-based architectures.

• SEQH’s conclusion is that the first commercial laser enrichment plants could trigger one of the largest industrial procurements of specialized laser equipment ever, even though almost no photonics analyst models that today.

TAM and economics

• The report’s enrichment waterfall breaks 2035 demand into roughly $15.0 billion of replaced Western LEU demand, $8.0 billion of HALEU demand for advanced reactors, $2.5 billion of DOE strategic reserve and government use, and $5.0 billion of allied export demand, summing to $30.5 billion.

• SEQH argues laser economics have crossed from speculative to urgent because spot SWU pricing reached about $200, versus academic laser-enrichment cost estimates of roughly $30 to $60 per SWU, with first-generation commercial systems still attractive even at $80 to $100 per SWU.

• In that framework, a 6 million SWU per year laser facility would generate around $1.2 billion of annual enrichment revenue at current pricing, and the embedded photonics capex and maintenance demand is largely unmodeled by the Street.

Ecosystem map

• SEQH identifies four active laser-enrichment programs as of June 2026: GLE / SILEX, QLE / ASPI, LIS Technologies, and an AVLIS revival path tied to lithium rather than uranium.

• GLE is the sector’s anchor proof point because it reached TRL-6 in October 2025 and has a Paducah commercial license application in review, while QLE / ASPI is the only U.S.-listed public equity where laser enrichment is the core equity story.

• LIS Technologies is positioned as the key U.S.-origin patented alternative, with a planned $1.38 billion Oak Ridge investment and 5.5 million SWU per year target, while NNE matters because it is the only public advanced reactor developer with a disclosed DOE-linked relationship to a laser-enrichment program.

Company read-through

• Within photonics, Coherent is judged the most relevant public company because it has the broadest laser portfolio and the closest commercial adjacency through CO2, fiber, and DPSS systems, although its 10.6 micronCO2 base still needs engineering work to reach the ~16 micron enrichment requirement.

• ASPI / QLE is the direct integrated enrichment equity, BWXT is the downstream beneficiary regardless of which enrichment technology wins, and OKLO plus NNE are treated as HALEU demand catalysts rather than photonics beneficiaries.

• SEQH is explicit that Sivers and Lumentum do not directly fit the enrichment-laser physics: Sivers’ InP platform operates at 1270 to 1650 nm, and Lumentum’s relevance is only indirect through industrial lasers and pump-module adjacency.

Main conclusions

• SEQH’s five-part conclusion is that laser enrichment has now crossed the technical threshold to be commercially credible, SWU pricing has structurally improved the economics, photonics analysts still do not model the TAM, COHR is the most relevant photonics name, and BWXT benefits downstream no matter which enrichment platform wins.

• The broadest implication is that photonics and nuclear fuel will converge when the first commercial laser-enrichment procurement contracts are placed, because enrichment capacity then becomes a direct buyer of advanced laser systems rather than just a nuclear policy topic.

• The biggest caveat is also central to the note: exact SILEX laser specifications are classified, so SEQH’s photonics TAM is a first-principles framework rather than a disclosed procurement model.

FULL 33-PAGE PDF REPORT INCLUDING EXTENSIVE SECTOR MODELING, FORECASTING, VALUATION METRICS, AND MORE AVAILABLE BELOW:

Read more

WHAT THIS NOTE SAYS

• SEQH reaffirms OVERWEIGHT / High Risk on Sivers, but the framing has changed: the stock is no longer a cheap optionality story and is now an expensive but better-validated AI photonics and mmWave platform.

• The June update argues that the thesis improved fundamentally through a $799 million opportunity pipeline, GlobalFoundries reference-design validation, and an $8.2 million ALL.SPACE production order, even as Q1 results, cash burn, and PCAOB-related restatements made the accounting and risk profile less forgiving.

What changed

• Since the April note, the stock moved from SEK 28.36 to SEK 67.00, a gain of about 136 percent, despite also suffering a 39 percent drawdown from the June 3 peak of SEK 110.00.

• Q1 2026 revenue came in at SEK 61.9 million, down 22 percent year over year, and adjusted EBITDA was -SEK 13.8 million, which SEQH attributes mainly to U.S. government shutdown and defense timing plus FX, not to a thesis break.

• The more important change was commercial validation: the pipeline expanded from about $453 million to $799 million, GlobalFoundries adopted Sivers laser arrays for SCALE optical-engine reference designs, and ALL.SPACE placed a named $8.2 million production order for 2027.

Core thesis

• SEQH’s central view is that InP laser scarcity is now strategic, not thematic, with lasers, substrates, and yields increasingly acting as real bottlenecks in AI optical scaling.

• Sivers is still attractive because it has multiple independent revenue vectors rather than one product bet: automotive LiDAR, pluggables and LRO lasers, CPO and NPO external light sources, SATCOM terminals, Tier-1 FWA, and defense arrays.

• The report says 2027 is the real conversion year, when investors should expect the debate to shift from whether the technology is credible to whether programs actually turn into manufacturable volume.

Photonics

• Q1 photonics revenue was SEK 17.8 million, down 32 percent year over year, with segment EBITDA around -SEK 7.6 to -7.7 million, so near-term reported numbers were weak even as strategic positioning improved.

• SEQH sees the GlobalFoundries release as the highest-quality new photonics data point since April because it puts Sivers inside a silicon-photonics reference-design context, not just a standalone component evaluation.

• The Glasgow plus WIN manufacturing setup remains the core architecture: Glasgow provides owned InP process control and qualification credibility, while WIN gives the volume path needed for 2027 and beyond.

• In SEQH’s base case, photonics revenue rises from SEK 93 million in FY25 to SEK 140 million in FY26, SEK 335 million in FY27, and SEK 850 million in FY30, while the bull case reaches SEK 2.12 billion by FY30.

Wireless

• Wireless remains the near-term revenue engine, with Q1 wireless sales of SEK 44.1 million, though EBITDA was still -SEK 10.5 million and the mix stayed heavily weighted toward NRE revenue rather than recurring hardware.

• The most important new wireless proof point is the ALL.SPACE $8.2 million 2027 production order, which turns the SATCOM thesis from forecast dependency into a named production anchor.

• Other updates, including the Tachyon $1.5 million 60GHz development partnership, Year-2 Microelectronics Commons $6.6 million funding, and the Tier-1 telecom FWA track for end-2026, reinforce the idea that wireless could become the cleaner validator of the 2027 revenue bridge.

Financial reset

• The annual report restatement changed the quality of the accounting base more than the revenue base: FY25 revenue moved to SEK 306.6 million from SEK 304.1 million, but adjusted EBITDA reset to -SEK 50.3 million, EBIT to -SEK 177.8 million, and reported equity to SEK 949.8 million.

• Q1 operating cash flow was -SEK 49.2 million, and cash at March 31 was just SEK 26.6 million before the SEK 125 million directed issue, so cash burn remains one of the central risks.

• SEQH’s updated base case now models group revenue at SEK 390 million in FY26, SEK 720 million in FY27, SEK 1.05 billion in FY28, and SEK 1.75 billion in FY30, with a bull path to SEK 3.05 billion by FY30.

Valuation and targets

• At SEK 67.00 and 319.95 million registered shares, the headline equity value is about SEK 21.44 billion, equal to roughly 70x FY25 sales, 55x FY26E base sales, and 30x FY27E base sales before cash adjustments.

• SEQH’s updated 12-month framework is SEK 35 bear, SEK 82 base, SEK 145 bull, and a probability-weighted target of SEK 86, which implies about 28 percent upside from the June 25 close.

• The note is explicit that the market has already capitalized much of the strategic narrative, which is why the base case upside is now more moderate even though the underlying business validation improved.

Risks and what matters next

• The biggest risk is no longer that the thesis is obscure, but that the stock now discounts several successful ramps before the P&L has proved them.

• SEQH highlights valuation compression, cash burn, PCAOB and U.S. listing timing, execution across LiDAR, SATCOM, CPO, FWA and defense, customer concentration, Achilles / DDM overhang, short interest, and dilution as the core risk set.

• The next checkpoints are the August 6, 2026 H1 report, Tier-1 FWA product milestones in H2 2026, Q4 2026 LiDAR readiness, possible Nasdaq New York filing activity, and 2027 qualification progress across Jabil, GlobalFoundries, POET, and Ayar.

The Full PDF report with deeper insight, valuation metrics, and further outlook projection is available below:

Read more

WHAT THIS NOTE SAYS

• This report argues that Sivers has moved from being viewed as a standalone InP fab to a designed-in light-source layer inside the AI datacenter optics stack, with the June 2, 2026 GlobalFoundries collaboration as the key catalyst that changes the quality of the story.

• SEQH frames the new value not as a firm contract but as a capacity option, then adds that option layer plus a pipeline-conversion layer to prior Sivers work and arrives at a platform value around SEK 150, versus a spot price of SEK 86.45.

Core thesis

• The central idea is that being embedded in a tier-one foundry’s silicon-photonics reference designs can pre-qualify Sivers for future CPO and LPO volume without Sivers having to fund the foundry capex itself.

• SEQH stresses that the GlobalFoundries arrangement carries no disclosed volume, revenue, or exclusivity commitments, so the correct valuation frame is not backlog but a real option on future foundry-scale optical-engine volume.

• The note says this does not replace the earlier Sivers thesis around InP scarcity and sovereignty, but extends it by adding a Foundry-Stack Capacity Option and a pipeline-conversion uplift.

Why the foundry stack matters

• In silicon photonics, silicon can modulate and route light, but it still needs a III-V laser source, usually indium phosphide, supplied from outside the silicon die.

• As optics move from pluggables toward co-packaged optics, the external light source becomes a qualified part of the foundry reference design, and that is exactly the layer where Sivers sits.

• SEQH highlights GlobalFoundries as the most important anchor because it is presented as one of the largest pure-play silicon-photonics foundries, with photonics revenue moving from about 200 million dollars in 2025 toward 400 million dollars in 2026 and a 1 billion dollar run-rate exiting 2028.

Design-win sequence

• The rerating is framed as cumulative rather than single-event. SEQH’s ledger includes ESA SATCOM, U.S. defense mmWave, a LiDAR ramp, O-Net and Enablence 8-channel ELS, Jabil 1.6T LRO, the POET collaboration, the Ayar Labs 16-wavelength WDM path, and finally the GlobalFoundries SiPh / SCALE embed.

• The key pattern is that the wins now span defense, space, LiDAR, pluggable optics, and CPO, which reduces reliance on any one program and broadens the platform narrative.

• At the same time, SEQH is careful to note that these are still mostly design wins and qualification events, not committed-volume supply contracts, which is why the valuation uses risk-weighted conversion assumptions.

TAM and valuation

• SEQH sizes the light-source slice by starting from large optical TAMs, including 50 billion dollars plus for pluggable optics, 73 to 100 billion dollars for AI-cluster optics, 4.7 to 15 billion dollars for CPO hardware, and 1.5 billion dollars plus per year for ELSFP laser modules.

• Applying a 10 to 15 percent laser-content share to those module markets, the note estimates roughly 8 billion dollars of addressable laser and ELS content by 2030 that could sit within a tier-one foundry stack.

• Method 1, the sum-of-layers capacity-option build, starts from a rebased prior platform core of SEK 36.7 per share, then adds SEK 102.8 for the Foundry-Stack Capacity Option and SEK 14.0 for pipeline conversion, reaching SEK 153.

• Method 2, the forward EV/Sales peer cross-check, gives SEK 129 using a 2028 revenue anchor and SEK 150 using a 2030 revenue anchor, so the triangulated range comes out to roughly SEK 144 to 150, which is why SEQH frames the platform value at about SEK 150.

Key assumptions

• The dominant valuation layer assumes that of the 8 billion dollar 2030 light-source pool, Sivers can capture about 9.5 percent share with a 55 percent probability that designed-in positions convert into actual volume.

• That produces about 418 million dollars of option-case revenue, which SEQH capitalizes at a discounted forward 10x EV/Sales to derive the largest single piece of the valuation.

• The separate pipeline-conversion layer uses the 799 million dollar opportunity pipeline, an 18 percent blended win rate, and a 35 percent durable-revenue annualization, deliberately kept modest to avoid double counting the larger capacity option.

Financial position and risk

• On the financial side, FY2025 revenue was SEK 304.1 million, gross margin was 87.2 percent, operating income was SEK -141.3 million, and net income was SEK -186.5 million, showing that the company still sits firmly in an investment phase.

• Q1 2026 sales were SEK 61.9 million, down 22 percent year over year, while the opportunity pipeline expanded to about 799 million dollars, up 77 percent year to date.

• SEQH also flags material overhangs: the stock has risen roughly 28-fold from its February low, the valuation implies extreme future-scale assumptions, losses are widening, and the note explicitly highlights short-seller pressure, market-conduct scrutiny, governance risk, dilution risk, and competitive displacement as real threats to the thesis

• In SEQH’s own downside framing, if flagship platforms slip, GF ramps move out, financing becomes punitive, or governance confidence is impaired, the valuation could compress back toward the SEK 37 to 60 commercial core range.

Bottom line

• The conclusion is that Sivers now deserves to be analyzed less as a niche component maker and more as a levered option on foundry-scale AI optics volume, because being designed into the stack is strategically better than simply selling merchant laser arrays.

• But SEQH is explicit that SEK 150 is a contingent platform value, not a recommendation and not a contract-backed base case, so the upside case depends heavily on whether those designed-in positions actually convert into durable volume over 2027 to 2030.
  
  FULL 15 PAGE REPORT LOCATED BELOW:
  

Read more

Monday, June 1, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex was sharply split on the first trading day of June, with IPPs and utilities getting hammered while producers, satellites, and SMR names mostly rallied. The S&P 500 rose 0.22 percent to 7,580, the Dow gained 0.72 percent (+363 points) to 51,032, both fresh all time highs, extending the S&P’s weekly winning streak to 9 consecutive weeks — something that has only occurred 10 times since the index’s inception in 1957.

May was a monster month for indices despite the mid-month nuclear correction: the Nasdaq surged 8.4 percent, the S&P 500 gained 5.1 percent, and the Dow rose 2.8 percent. Year to date, the Nasdaq is up 16.3 percent, the S&P 500 up 11.3 percent, and the Dow up 6.9 percent.

The macro picture today:

• Nvidia rose 2 percent after announcing a new AI chip aimed at the PC market, with Jensen Huang declaring it would “bring PCs into the age of AI”.

• Iran remained unresolved over the weekend. President Trump requested changes to the MOU, with the two sides exchanging fire. Oil bounced modestly off last week’s lows, with WTI at 89 dollars and Brent at 92 dollars, though WTI recorded its largest monthly drop since April 2025, plummeting nearly 17 percent in May as peace hopes dominated.

• Software stocks continued their massive breakout, with the IGV up 8 percent for the prior week and over 20 percent in May.

• Breadth was mixed — tech led again while energy, consumer staples, and yield oriented sectors lagged.

2. CEG Selloff - The Key Event

Constellation Energy (CEG) closed at 266.31 dollars, minus 7.45 percent on 11.4 million shares, the highest volume session in weeks. MarketBeat’s headline was “CEG Is Down 12.6% After EPS Surges And Buyback Completion – Has The Bull Case Changed?”, referencing the stock’s ongoing struggles despite strong earnings.

The context: CEG has been under persistent pressure since Q1 results despite reporting GAAP EPS surging from 0.38 to 4.49 year over year. The March 2026 antitrust driven 4.4 GW natural gas asset sale (tied to the Calpine acquisition) triggered a 10.9 percent single day drop in March and continues to weigh on sentiment. The market appears concerned that CEG is becoming smaller (asset sales) without yet announcing the new data center power contracts that would justify re-rating higher.

TIKR’s mid case target remains 484.41 dollars (82 percent upside) and the street mean target is 375.82 dollars (41 percent upside), both representing massive discount to fair value if the data center contracts materialize. But the market wants proof, not projections.

CEG’s selloff today dragged the entire IPP bucket: VST minus 3.56 percent, TLN minus 2.00 percent, BE minus 3.51 percent.

3. Equity Movers - Leaders

Despite the IPP weakness, leadership was found in producers, satellites, and select SMR names.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 5.70 dollars, plus 19.51 percent on 19.1 million shares. This is NUAI’s largest single day move in the coverage period, suggesting a company specific catalyst (likely contract news or partnership announcement).

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.82 dollars, plus 12.35 percent on 10.9 million shares. URG’s strongest day since April, likely reflecting uranium supply tightness and sector rotation into pure play producers.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.66 dollars, plus 3.72 percent on 2.5 million shares.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 190.00 dollars, plus 4.13 percent on 1.2 million shares.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 6.40 dollars, plus 3.88 percent on 362.7 thousand shares.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 29.89 dollars, plus 3.49 percent on 3.6 million shares.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 8.04 dollars, plus 3.34 percent on 7.5 million shares. ASPI continues to build on its May 26 breakout and is now at 8.04 dollars, up 65 percent from the May 19 low of 4.88.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 12.94 dollars, plus 2.13 percent on 41.2 million shares. SMR has now broken clearly above the 11.50 resistance and is approaching the 13.62 dollar target identified by analysts.

• SILXY closed at 22.25 dollars, plus 2.00 percent.

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 11.69 dollars, plus 1.86 percent on 1.1 million shares.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 189.20 dollars... wait — actually BWXT closed minus 3.41 percent. Let me correct.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 112.93 dollars, plus 0.20 percent on 2.6 million shares.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 3.53 dollars, plus 0.86 percent on 2.6 million shares.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.45 dollars, plus 0.58 percent.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 67.10 dollars, plus 0.33 percent on 18.7 million shares.

4. Equity Movers - Red Prints

The red was concentrated in IPPs, utilities, contractors, and select producers.

• Constellation (CEG) at 266.31 dollars, minus 7.45 percent (see Section 2).

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 719.99 dollars, minus 3.69 percent.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 154.53 dollars, minus 3.56 percent on 4.3 million shares.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 274.99 dollars, minus 3.51 percent on 10.3 million shares.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 189.20 dollars, minus 3.41 percent on 1.4 million shares.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 17.69 dollars, minus 2.91 percent on 22.3 million shares.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 17.79 dollars, minus 2.68 percent on 4.4 million shares.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 379.06 dollars, minus 2.00 percent on 763.2 thousand shares.

• SLX AT closed at 6.05 euros, minus 1.94 percent.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 13.58 dollars, minus 1.40 percent on 7.9 million shares.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 26.56 dollars, minus 1.30 percent on 2.6 million shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.44 dollars, minus 1.14 percent on 22.6 million shares.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 11.53 dollars, minus 0.26 percent on 6.5 million shares.

5. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium fell to 85.05 dollars per pound on May 29, down 0.18 percent from the prior day, down 2.07 percent over the past month, but still up 18.37 percent year over year.

• The full 2026 uranium price story: The spot surged to approximately 101.50 dollars in late January 2026, driven by heavy Sprott Physical Uranium Trust buying (including a reported 500,000 pound single purchase) that pushed prices above 100 for the first time in years. It then pulled back to 86.30 to 86.55 by late February/early March and has consolidated in the 85 to 87 dollar band since. The May close at 85.05 represents the low end of this 4 month consolidation range.

• Long term pricing: TradeTech at 93 dollars per pound. By comparison, Cameco’s end of June 2025 spot was 78.50 dollars with a long term price of 80 dollars. The spot has risen 8 percent and the long term has risen 16 percent year over year.

• Oil implications: WTI’s 17 percent decline in May (largest monthly drop since April 2025) removes a major inflation headwind. If oil continues to fall on Iran peace prospects, bond yields should follow lower, which is unambiguously bullish for high beta nuclear equities.

6. SEQH Desk View

Today’s session revealed a bifurcation within the complex: IPPs sold off hard (CEG minus 7.45, VST minus 3.56, TLN minus 2.00) while pure play nuclear fuel, producers, and SMR developers rallied (URG plus 12, NUAI plus 19, LEU plus 4, ASPI plus 3, NNE plus 3, SMR plus 2).

The interpretation: the market is rotating within the nuclear theme, not abandoning it. CEG’s ongoing struggles with the data center contract narrative and the Calpine asset sales are company specific, not sector wide. Meanwhile:

• URG’s 12 percent move signals that uranium producers with near term production are being bid as the commodity holds the 85 dollar floor

• NUAI’s 19 percent move signals fresh news flow in the AI-nuclear nexus

• ASPI at 8.04 (up 65 percent from the May 19 low) confirms the commercialization breakout is real

• SMR at 12.94 is approaching the 13.62 analyst target and has rallied 28 percent from the May 19 low of 10.12

The macro environment entering June:

• S&P 500 at 7,580, 9 consecutive weekly gains, only happened 10 times since 1957

• Nasdaq up 16.3 percent YTD, S&P up 11.3 percent

• Oil down 17 percent in May on Iran peace hopes, reducing inflation pressure

• Nvidia beating and guiding higher, validating AI data center demand

• Uranium at 85.05, consolidating in the mid 80s after the January 101.50 spike

• Long term uranium at 93 dollars, BofA targeting 130 by Q4 2026

Positioning framework (unchanged):

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

CEG note: At 266.31 dollars, CEG is now 36 percent below its 52 week high of 412.70 and trading at a massive discount to TIKR’s 484.41 dollar mid case DCF target (82 percent upside) and the street mean of 375.82 dollars (41 percent upside). The stock is pricing in no new data center contracts ever. If even one major deal is announced, the re-rating will be violent. This is the most asymmetric risk/reward name in the coverage universe, but requires patience and conviction.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex surged broadly on the first trading day after the Memorial Day holiday weekend, with 25 of 28 names closing green and the overall complex firmly in recovery mode. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at fresh all time highs, while the Dow gained 294 points (+0.58 percent) to 50,579, also a new record. The Russell 2000 also set a fresh record close, marking one of the broadest rally days in months.

The macro catalyst was clear: over the Memorial Day weekend, the U.S. and Iran reportedly agreed to the broad outlines of a peace deal, though “limited U.S. strikes and Iranian threats of retaliation muddled the outlook a bit”. This is enormous for the nuclear complex: the Iran war had been driving oil above 108 dollars per barrel, elevating inflation and bond yields, and creating the macro headwinds that fueled the May correction. If a peace deal materializes, yields should fall, risk appetite should return, and high beta nuclear names should re-rate.

The S&P 500’s eighth consecutive weekly winning streak is the longest since the rally began in March. Chip stocks rose in early trade on the Iran de-escalation.

2. ASP Isotopes (ASPI) - The Breakout

ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 7.01 dollars, plus 26.29 percent on 14.0 million shares. This is the largest single day move in ASPI since the early April surge and represents a decisive breakout above the 5.86 to 6.32 dollar technical zone that failed in mid-May.

The fundamental backdrop:

• Q1 2026 earnings (released last week) showed ASPI transitioning from R&D to commercialization, with plans to expand isotope production for quantum computing, nuclear medicine, and advanced energy markets.

• 2026 commercial pipeline is now in execution mode, targeting over 300 million dollars in EBITDA by 2031 with a 333 million dollar cash position as of December 31, 2025.

• Analyst targets: MarketBeat shows 3 analysts with an average price target of 13.00 dollars (highest 15.00, lowest 11.00), representing 86 percent upside from today’s close of 7.01. Cantor at 11 dollars and Canaccord at 13 dollars remain the anchoring targets .

• StockScan’s 30 day forecast: Average target of 8.70 dollars, representing 24 percent upside from current levels.

ASPI at 7.01 dollars is now well above the April 13 pre-market level of 4.65 dollars and has reclaimed all of the May correction losses. The stock’s 3.61 beta means this kind of move is characteristic, but the fundamental shift from R&D to commercial production makes this structurally different from prior pops.

3. Equity Movers - Leaders

The rally was broad based, with IPPs, SMR developers, producers, and satellites all participating.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) at 7.01 dollars, plus 26.29 percent (see Section 2).

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 29.30 dollars, plus 9.61 percent on 5.2 million shares.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 12.27 dollars, plus 7.63 percent on 44.7 million shares. SMR broke above the 11.50 dollar resistance identified last week, which targeted 13.62 dollars. Today’s 12.27 print is well on its way.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.59 dollars, plus 7.43 percent on 2.5 million shares.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 391.89 dollars, plus 5.22 percent on 1.3 million shares.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 164.44 dollars, plus 5.23 percent on 8.5 million shares. VST has rallied from 134.99 on May 19 to 164.44 today, a gain of 22 percent in 5 sessions.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.63 dollars, plus 5.16 percent on 15.4 million shares.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 68.92 dollars, plus 4.61 percent on 18.4 million shares.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 29.62 dollars, plus 4.59 percent on 3.9 million shares.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 13.54 dollars, plus 3.99 percent on 9.4 million shares.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 3.50 dollars, plus 3.86 percent on 2.8 million shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.35 dollars, plus 3.72 percent on 32.0 million shares.

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 11.63 dollars, plus 3.65 percent on 882.2 thousand shares.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 108.43 dollars, plus 3.51 percent on 3.0 million shares.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 302.90 dollars, plus 3.00 percent on 3.6 million shares. CEG has now rallied from 260.67 on May 19 to 302.90 today, a gain of 16 percent in 5 sessions. Analyst target remains 383.69 dollars (27 percent upside).

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 184.50 dollars, plus 2.87 percent on 850.9 thousand shares.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 750.66 dollars, plus 2.66 percent.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 18.50 dollars, plus 2.55 percent on 9.4 million shares.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 11.00 dollars, plus 3.19 percent on 6.3 million shares.

• SILXY closed at 21.26 dollars, plus 3.08 percent.

• SLX AT closed at 6.21 euros, plus 1.14 percent.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 204.75 dollars, plus 0.91 percent on 1.1 million shares.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 303.43 dollars, plus 0.31 percent on 8.8 million shares.

4. Equity Movers - Red Prints

Only three names closed red, with minor losses.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 6.25 dollars, minus 3.10 percent on 472.9 thousand shares, giving back part of last week’s 9.47 percent gain.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.31 dollars, minus 2.71 percent on 6.9 million shares.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 17.87 dollars, minus 2.63 percent on 5.1 million shares.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.10 dollars, minus 1.90 percent.

5. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium entered 2026 with “great momentum,” with spot prices surging by about a quarter in January to above 100 dollars per pound for the first time in two years, according to Sprott’s February 2026 analysis. The spot has since consolidated into the 85 to 87 dollar range through April and May.

• Weekly range: Uranium Spotlight’s May 5 briefing showed spot at 86.45 opening the week of April 28 and closing at 86.05. Trading Economics’ last update on May 18 was 85.25 dollars, down 1.90 percent over the past month but up 19.57 percent year over year.

• Iran peace deal implications for uranium: If the U.S.-Iran peace deal materializes, oil should fall sharply from 108 dollars, reducing inflation pressure and likely pulling bond yields lower. Lower yields are unambiguously positive for high duration growth assets like SMR developers, nuclear utilities, and the entire AI power trade. Additionally, reduced geopolitical tension could ease Russian sanctions uncertainty but also reduce the urgency around domestic uranium supply security.

• Long term pricing: TradeTech at 93 dollars per pound, the highest since 2008, driven by “historically high forecast nuclear fuel requirements”.

6. SEQH Desk View

The correction is definitively over. From the May 19 lows to today’s close, the complex has staged a V-shaped recovery:

• VST: 134.99 → 164.44 (plus 22 percent)

• CEG: 260.67 → 302.90 (plus 16 percent)

• TLN: 317.35 → 391.89 (plus 23 percent)

• OKLO: 55.90 → 68.92 (plus 23 percent)

• SMR: 10.12 → 12.27 (plus 21 percent)

• UEC: 11.96 → 13.54 (plus 13 percent)

• NNE: 22.35 → 29.30 (plus 31 percent)

• ASPI: 4.88 → 7.01 (plus 44 percent)

Three macro catalysts drove this reversal in 5 sessions:

1. Nvidia’s earnings beat (May 20 after close) — profit tripled, Jensen predicted further growth, validating AI data center power demand

2. U.S.-Iran peace deal framework — reduces oil, inflation, and yield pressure on high beta equities

3. S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell 2000 all at new all time highs — the broadest risk on backdrop possible

The structural thesis has never been stronger:

• Nvidia data center revenue growing 90 percent year over year

• Uranium spot at 85 to 87 dollars, with Sprott noting it was above 100 in January before consolidating

• Long term pricing at 93 dollars, near multi decade highs

• BofA targeting 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026

• CEG analyst target at 383.69 dollars (27 percent upside) with Q1 GAAP EPS up from 0.38 to 4.49 year over year

• ASPI transitioning from R&D to commercialization with 333 million cash and 13 dollar average analyst target (86 percent upside)

• Iran peace deal potentially resolving the #1 macro headwind of 2026

Positioning framework (unchanged):

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

ASPI upgrade: With the stock now at 7.01 dollars and breaking out above all prior resistance, the failed breakout from mid-May has been reclaimed with authority. The Q1 earnings and commercialization narrative provide fundamental backing. Cantor’s 11 dollar and Canaccord’s 13 dollar targets (57 to 85 percent upside) frame the opportunity. ASPI remains a satellite but is now the highest conviction satellite in the universe.

The nuclear bull market is back. All time highs on the indices, a potential Iran peace deal, Nvidia confirming AI power demand is accelerating, and uranium holding the mid 80s with term pricing at 93 dollars. This is the setup.

Thursday, May 21, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex staged its second consecutive day of broad gains, this time powered by last night’s massive Nvidia earnings beat. Nvidia reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of 81.62 billion dollars (beating the 78.86 billion estimate) and EPS of 1.87 dollars (beating the 1.78 dollar consensus by 6.25 percent), with profit tripling year over year. Jensen Huang predicted further revenue growth on the earnings call, confirming that AI data center infrastructure buildout is accelerating, not decelerating.

This is the catalyst the entire AI power complex was waiting for. Nvidia’s beat validates that hyperscaler capital expenditure is flowing at unprecedented scale, which directly supports the demand thesis for nuclear baseload power, SMR deployment, and “Bring Your Own Power” solutions like Bloom Energy.

The broader context: April was the S&P 500’s best month in five years, gaining 10.42 percent, while the Nasdaq surged 15.29 percent and the Dow added 7.14 percent. The May correction brought the S&P from its 7,412 high on May 11 down to 7,408 on May 15 (the Friday selloff), and today’s bounce likely pushes markets back toward those levels on the Nvidia tailwind.

2. Nvidia Earnings - The Read Through

The numbers that matter for the nuclear and power complex:

• Revenue: 81.62 billion dollars versus 78.86 billion expected (plus 3.5 percent beat)

• EPS: 1.87 dollars versus 1.78 expected (plus 6.25 percent beat)

• Data Center revenue trajectory: Q1 FY2026 was 39.1 billion → Q3 FY2026 was 51.2 billion → Q4 FY2026 was 62.3 billion → Q1 FY2027 implied at roughly 74 to 76 billion based on the total revenue figure

• Jensen Huang predicted further revenue growth, meaning AI capex is still accelerating

• Q2 FY2027 consensus: Analysts expect EPS of 1.94 dollars for next quarter, implying continued sequential growth

The data center revenue line has gone from 39.1 billion (Q1 FY2026) to approximately 74 to 76 billion (Q1 FY2027) in just one year, roughly a 90 percent year over year increase. This is the most powerful capital cycle in history, and every one of those GPUs needs power. The read through to CEG, TLN, VST, BE, OKLO, SMR, and the entire nuclear stack is direct and immediate.

3. Equity Movers - Leaders

The rally was led by AI power proxies, SMR developers, and IPPs, with producers also participating.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 309.50 dollars, plus 9.63 percent on 13.8 million shares. BE is the most direct beneficiary of the Nvidia narrative: Oracle’s 2.8 GW fuel cell deal is explicitly for AI data center power, and Nvidia’s beat confirms those data centers are being built at accelerating pace.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 11.37 dollars, plus 9.43 percent on 30.5 million shares. SMR analysis from May 21 identified resistance at 11.50 dollars as the key level, with a break above targeting 13.62 dollars. Today’s close at 11.37 is testing that level directly.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 6.00 dollars, plus 9.47 percent on 272.5 thousand shares.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 18.05 dollars, plus 7.54 percent on 9.2 million shares.

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 11.60 dollars, plus 5.65 percent on 663.3 thousand shares.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.49 dollars, plus 5.67 percent on 2.3 million shares.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 177.40 dollars, plus 4.78 percent on 798.4 thousand shares.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.54 dollars, plus 4.76 percent on 7.4 million shares.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 65.48 dollars, plus 4.63 percent on 10.2 million shares.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 360.45 dollars, plus 4.64 percent on 868.2 thousand shares.

• SLX AT closed at 5.62 euros, plus 4.27 percent.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 149.32 dollars, plus 3.69 percent on 4.5 million shares.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 25.19 dollars, plus 3.61 percent on 1.6 million shares.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) at 18.05 dollars, plus 7.54 percent on 9.2 million shares.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 13.18 dollars, plus 3.39 percent on 7.8 million shares.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 726.88 dollars, plus 0.03 percent, flat.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.19 dollars, plus 2.95 percent on 3.6 million shares.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 3.52 dollars, plus 2.33 percent on 2.4 million shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.23 dollars, plus 1.89 percent on 18.7 million shares.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 105.70 dollars, plus 1.62 percent on 2.9 million shares.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 285.50 dollars, plus 1.51 percent on 2.3 million shares. Analyst consensus remains at 383.69 dollars (34 percent upside).

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.32 dollars, plus 1.53 percent.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 28.94 dollars, plus 0.94 percent on 3.2 million shares.

4. Equity Movers - Red Prints

Only four names closed red, all with minor losses.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 17.30 dollars, minus 4.10 percent on 6.8 million shares, with the characteristic wide intraday range of 17.31 to 19.53 dollars.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 5.19 dollars, minus 1.31 percent on 5.1 million shares.

• SILXY closed at 19.32 dollars, minus 0.93 percent.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 201.00 dollars, minus 0.82 percent.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 10.58 dollars, minus 0.09 percent, essentially flat.

5. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium was last at 85.25 dollars per pound on May 18, down 1.90 percent over the past month but up 19.57 percent year over year. CarbonCredits confirms the global spot at approximately 86.10 dollars with structural support from Kazatomprom constraints, Russian sanctions, and tech driven SMR demand.

• Long term: TradeTech at 93 dollars per pound, Cameco at 91.50, Uranium Spotlight at 90 dollars. Near multi decade highs.

• The Nvidia connection to uranium demand: Every data center GPU requires approximately 1 to 1.5 kW of power. Nvidia’s data center revenue of approximately 75 billion per quarter at an average selling price of 30,000 to 40,000 dollars per chipimplies 1.9 to 2.5 million GPUs shipped per quarter, requiring roughly 2 to 3.75 GW of incremental baseload power demand per quarter. Over 4 quarters that is 8 to 15 GW of new power demand annually, which is exactly why utilities, SMR developers, and IPPs are being bid.

6. SEQH Desk View

The correction is over. The Nvidia print changes everything.

Nvidia’s 81.62 billion dollar quarter (beat by 3.5 percent), 1.87 dollar EPS (beat by 6.25 percent), and Jensen Huang’s prediction of further revenue growth validate the single most important assumption in the nuclear and power investment thesis: AI data center demand is real, massive, accelerating, and requires unprecedented amounts of baseload power.

Today’s tape confirms the market is reconnecting with this thesis:

• SMR names (SMR plus 9.4, OKLO plus 4.6, NNE plus 3.6, NKLR plus 9.5) surging on the demand validation

• IPPs (TLN plus 4.6, VST plus 3.7, CEG plus 1.5) resuming their bid

• BE (plus 9.6) breaking to 309.50 dollars, a new post-earnings high, as the most direct Oracle AI power play

• Producers (UUUU plus 7.5, UEC plus 3.4, LEU plus 4.8, URG plus 4.8) participating broadly

The two day rally from Monday’s lows:

• OKLO: 55.90 → 65.48 (plus 17 percent)

• SMR: 10.12 → 11.37 (plus 12 percent)

• UEC: 11.96 → 13.18 (plus 10 percent)

• TLN: 317.35 → 360.45 (plus 14 percent)

• BE: 261.80 → 309.50 (plus 18 percent)

• CEG: 260.67 → 285.50 (plus 10 percent)

The structural thesis anchors:

• Nvidia data center revenue roughly 90 percent year over year growth, accelerating

• Jensen Huang predicting further growth

• Uranium at 85 to 86 dollars, long term at 90 to 93 dollars

• CEG analyst target at 383.69 dollars (34 percent upside from today)

• BofA targeting uranium at 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026

• SMR resistance at 11.50 dollars, with a break targeting 13.62 dollars

Positioning framework (unchanged):

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

The Nvidia earnings call confirmed that the AI infrastructure buildout is the largest capital cycle in history and it is accelerating, not peaking. Every GPU needs power. Every data center needs baseload. Nuclear is the answer. The correction was a gift for those with conviction.

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex staged a powerful reversal today, with IPPs, SMR developers, and AI power names surging while producers and uranium miners saw modest recovery. The session was driven by two catalysts: Constellation Energy’s Q1 earnings re-rating and anticipation of Nvidia’s earnings report after the close tonight.

The broader market was under pressure earlier this week. On Tuesday, the Dow fell 0.65 percent (minus 322 points) to 49,363, the Nasdaq slid 0.84 percent to 25,870, and the Russell 2000 led losses at minus 1.01 percent. The 10 year Treasury yield remained near 4.60 percent, the key level that has been driving the correction across high beta equities all month. However, today’s session saw a clear rotation back into AI data center power plays ahead of Nvidia’s earnings call tonight, where analysts expect EPS of 1.76 dollars on revenue of 78.78 billion dollars and are focused on AI data center demand commentary as the number the market actually cares about.

2. Constellation Energy - The Re-Rating

Constellation Energy (CEG) closed at 281.60 dollars, plus 8.03 percent on 4.1 million shares. TradingKey confirmed CEG moved up 7.39 percent on May 20, citing multiple drivers behind the move.

The fundamental picture is strong:

• Q1 2026 results (reported May 11): GAAP Net Income of 4.49 dollars per share (up from 0.38 in Q1 2025) and Adjusted Operating Earnings of 2.74 dollars per share (up from 2.14 in Q1 2025). This is a massive earnings acceleration.

• Analyst consensus: 16 analysts have a Buy consensus with a price target of 383.69 dollars, implying roughly 36 percent upside from today’s close. 31 percent rate it Strong Buy, 50 percent Buy, and 19 percent Hold.

• Calpine acquisition EBITDA surge: TIKR previously noted that CEG’s EBITDA jumped from 0.84 billion in Q4 2025 to consensus 2.02 billion in Q1 2026, a 189 percent year over year increase due to the Calpine integration.

CEG at 281.60 dollars is still 32 percent below its 52 week high of 412.70 and 27 percent below the 383.69 analyst target. The stock appears to be repricing higher ahead of Nvidia’s earnings as the market reconnects the AI data center power demand narrative.

3. Equity Movers - Leaders

Today’s rally was led by IPPs, SMR developers, and AI power proxies.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 62.09 dollars, plus 11.11 percent on 13.8 million shares. After falling 28 percent from its May 11 high of 77.43 to yesterday’s close of 55.90, Oklo bounced aggressively as the AI power trade returned.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 346.44 dollars, plus 10.13 percent on 885.8 thousand shares.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.40 dollars, plus 9.68 percent.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 24.44 dollars, plus 9.62 percent on 2.5 million shares.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 282.31 dollars, plus 8.02 percent on 10.4 million shares.

• Constellation (CEG) at 281.60 dollars, plus 8.03 percent (discussed in Section 2).

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 11.20 dollars, plus 7.69 percent on 979.8 thousand shares.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 12.82 dollars, plus 7.64 percent on 11.3 million shares, bouncing from yesterday’s 9 percent decline.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 144.28 dollars, plus 7.10 percent on 7.9 million shares.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 28.64 dollars, plus 6.99 percent on 3.6 million shares.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 5.12 dollars, plus 5.77 percent on 3.8 million shares.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 5.54 dollars, plus 5.72 percent.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 16.75 dollars, plus 3.52 percent on 11.1 million shares.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 726.65 dollars, plus 3.08 percent.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 10.37 dollars, plus 3.08 percent on 21.6 million shares.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 202.00 dollars, plus 2.37 percent on 731.2 thousand shares.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.42 dollars, plus 2.16 percent.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.05 dollars, plus 1.05 percent on 4.1 million shares.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 10.64 dollars, plus 1.03 percent on 6.4 million shares.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 3.45 dollars, plus 0.88 percent.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 170.00 dollars, plus 0.59 percent.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 104.05 dollars, plus 0.51 percent on 2.5 million shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.17 dollars, plus 0.22 percent on 19.6 million shares.

4. Equity Movers - Red Prints

Only four names closed red, and the moves were minor.

• SLX AT closed at 5.39 euros, minus 2.71 percent.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 17.50 dollars, minus 1.47 percent on 2.7 million shares (note: same close as yesterday, suggesting thin late day trading).

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.49 dollars, minus 0.67 percent on 8.0 million shares.

• SILXY closed at 19.50 dollars, flat.

5. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium was at 85.25 dollars per pound on May 18, down 0.81 percent from the prior day and down 1.90 percent over the past month, though still up 19.57 percent year over year. CarbonCredits confirms the spot globally at approximately 86.10 dollars with the market in “tight equilibrium” where supply constraints from Kazatomprom, Russian sanctions, and tech driven SMR demand keep downward pressure “severely restricted”.

• Long term pricing: TradeTech at 93 dollars per pound, Cameco at 91.50, Uranium Spotlight at 90 dollars. The term market remains near multi decade highs even as spot consolidates.

• Saskatchewan flooding continues to disrupt northern uranium operations, a real supply risk for Cameco and NexGen.

6. SEQH Desk View

Today was the first meaningful bounce since the correction began on May 12, and the character of the move is telling. The leadership was IPPs and AI power proxies (CEG plus 8, TLN plus 10, VST plus 7, BE plus 8, OKLO plus 11, NNE plus 10), not uranium producers (CCJ plus 0.5, DNN plus 0.2, URG minus 0.7). This tells you the market is re-pricing AI data center power demand ahead of Nvidia’s earnings tonight, not making a call on the uranium commodity.

The Nvidia earnings call tonight at approximately 5:20 PM ET is the single most important near term catalyst for this complex:

• Expected: EPS of 1.76 dollars on revenue of 78.78 billion dollars

• The number that matters: AI data center capital expenditure guidance and demand commentary. If Jensen Huang confirms that hyperscaler AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating, it validates the multi year demand thesis for nuclear baseload power and SMR deployment.

• Context from Q3 FY2026 (Nov 2025): Nvidia reported EPS of 1.30 (beat the 1.26 estimate), revenue of 57 billion (beat the 55.4 estimate), and data center sales of 51.2 billion (up 66 percent year over year). The company guided Q4 FY2026 revenue to 65 billion, above the Street’s 62.38 billion.

• Tonight’s Q1 FY2027 report should show continued sequential growth from that 65 billion base toward the 78.78 billion consensus.

If Nvidia beats and guides higher, expect a continuation of today’s rally in CEG, TLN, VST, BE, OKLO, and the SMR names. If Nvidia disappoints, the correction likely resumes.

Beyond Nvidia:

• CEG’s Q1 earnings acceleration (GAAP EPS from 0.38 to 4.49 year over year) combined with 16 analysts at a 383.69 dollar target (36 percent upside) makes CEG one of the most compelling names in the coverage universe right now.

• The Dow at 49,363, Nasdaq at 25,870, and the 10 year at 4.60 percent remain the key macro parameters. Until yields break lower, high beta will remain volatile.

• Nvidia is at a 5.5 trillion dollar valuation and the SOX is back near all time highs. The AI infrastructure buildout is the largest capital cycle in a generation.

Positioning framework (unchanged):

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

Watch the Nvidia print tonight. It sets the tone for the rest of the week and potentially the rest of the month.

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex extended its brutal selloff into a fourth session, with UEC tumbling 9 percent, OKLO sinking 5 percent, and UUUU sliding nearly 7 percent as the sector continued to bleed from last week’s global bond rout. 247 Wall Street’s coverage of today’s session specifically named the nuclear pullback, attributing it to profit taking after the sector’s sharp AI data center driven rally, a rotation away from speculative investments, and a renewed investor reassessment of how quickly SMR projects can deliver power to major consumers.

The broader market was mixed and choppy. The S&P 500 slipped 0.07 percent while the Dow gained 0.32 percent and the Nasdaq fell 0.51 percent as memory chip weakness dragged tech lower for a third consecutive day. The 10 year Treasury yield held at 4.62 percent, while oil was volatile on competing Iran headlines: President Trump postponed a planned attack on Iran to let negotiations continue, then later pessimistic headlines pushed crude higher, adding to risk off sentiment.

The NYSE’s midday note highlighted that higher risk areas including data centers, crypto, and quantum were getting hit, while the Russell 2000 lagged down nearly 1 percent. Utilities also traded poorly as NextEra confirmed a monster deal to acquire Dominion Energy in an all stock transaction totaling over 65 billion dollars, reshaping the utility landscape. Financials and energy led to the upside.

Uranium fell to 85.25 dollars per pound on May 18, down 0.81 percent from the prior day, and down 1.90 percent over the past month, though still up 19.57 percent year over year. This is the first time the one month change has turned negative since early April and represents a pullback from the 87.15 dollar April 23 high to the low 85s.

2. The 247 Wall Street Thesis Check

247 Wall Street’s analysis of today’s nuclear selloff is worth quoting directly. They identified three drivers for the decline in OKLO, UEC, and UUUU:

1. Profit taking after the sector’s sharp rise fueled by AI data center power demand

2. A rotation away from speculative AI related investments (consistent with the broader Nasdaq weakness and data center stock selloff noted by the NYSE)

3. A reevaluation of how quickly SMR projects can deliver power to major consumers

Crucially, 247 Wall Street explicitly stated this is “rather than a fundamental shift in the nuclear investment thesis”. The structural bull case remains intact; what is changing is the market’s willingness to pay for multi year forward optionality during a period of rising yields and macro uncertainty.

3. Equity Movers - Leaders

Only three names closed green today.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 26.77 dollars, plus 4.57 percent on 6.0 million shares. XE was the standout green name, suggesting that the post IPO price discovery is finding a bid even as the rest of the complex sells off. The IPO raised 1.017 billion dollars at a 14 billion dollar valuation.

• SLX AT closed at 5.54 euros, plus 1.28 percent.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 261.80 dollars, plus 1.19 percent on 8.6 million shares. BE continues to trade as a differentiated AI power play, decoupled from the nuclear miner and SMR complex.

4. Equity Movers - Red Prints

The red was broad and deep, with the heaviest selling in producers and high beta names.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 11.96 dollars, minus 9.39 percent on 15.5 million shares. UEC has now fallen from 16.68 on May 11 to 11.96 today, a decline of 28 percent in six sessions.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 22.35 dollars, minus 7.45 percent on 2.3 million shares.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 4.88 dollars, minus 7.54 percent on 4.3 million shares. ASPI is now well below the 5.86 to 6.32 dollar breakout zone, confirming a failed breakout.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.03 dollars, minus 7.03 percent on 4.3 million shares.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 16.24 dollars, minus 6.67 percent on 10.3 million shares. UUUU has now fallen from 22.42 on May 6 to 16.24 today, a decline of 28 percent in 9 sessions.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.39 dollars, minus 4.79 percent on 4.6 million shares.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 55.90 dollars, minus 4.54 percent on 11.7 million shares. From its 77.43 high on May 11, Oklo has dropped 28 percent in six sessions.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.52 dollars, minus 3.80 percent on 9.8 million shares.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 10.12 dollars, minus 3.44 percent on 28.6 million shares.

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 10.49 dollars, minus 3.35 percent on 681.2 thousand shares.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 3.48 dollars, minus 3.33 percent on 3.8 million shares.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.10 dollars, minus 3.13 percent.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 17.50 dollars, minus 2.94 percent on 4.4 million shares.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 10.69 dollars, minus 2.55 percent on 5.9 million shares.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 317.35 dollars, minus 2.12 percent on 843.9 thousand shares.

• SILXY closed at 19.50 dollars, minus 1.92 percent.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 170.00 dollars, minus 1.71 percent on 948.2 thousand shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.20 dollars, minus 1.54 percent on 31.8 million shares.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 199.00 dollars, minus 1.46 percent on 1.1 million shares.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 134.99 dollars, minus 1.29 percent on 5.9 million shares.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 103.99 dollars, minus 1.09 percent on 3.4 million shares. CCJ has now pulled back below Bank of America’s 125 dollar price target by nearly 17 percent.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 704.95 dollars, minus 0.76 percent.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 260.67 dollars, minus 0.51 percent on 3.9 million shares.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 5.37 dollars, minus 0.19 percent.

5. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium fell to 85.25 dollars per pound on May 18, down 0.81 percent from the prior day, down 1.90 percent over the past month, and up 19.57 percent year over year. This represents a pullback from the 87.15 dollar April 23 high and the first monthly decline since early April.

• Context: CarbonCredits’ latest read confirms spot prices at 86.10 dollars globally with the market in “consolidation” where “quiet spot trading is currently balancing robust long term fundamentals” and “downward pressure is severely restricted by structural supply deficits”. The divergence between CarbonCredits (86.10) and Trading Economics (85.25) reflects different data feed timings but both confirm the market is in the mid to high 85 dollar range.

• Saskatchewan flooding: Uranium Spotlight’s May 12 report highlighted flooding in Saskatchewan disrupting northern uranium operations, a real supply risk for Cameco’s McArthur River and Cigar Lake.

• Long term pricing: TradeTech at 93 dollars per pound, Cameco at 91.50, Uranium Spotlight at 90 dollars. The long term market remains near multi decade highs even as spot softens.

• Macro context: J.P. Morgan’s weekly recap (as of May 15) shows headline CPI at 3.8 percent year over year and core CPI at 2.8 percent, with retail sales up 0.5 percent month over month. Inflation remains elevated, keeping the bond selloff in play and pressuring high duration equities.

6. SEQH Desk View

The nuclear complex is now in a legitimate correction. From the May 6 to May 11 highs to today’s close, the damage is severe:

• UEC: 16.68 → 11.96 (minus 28 percent)

• OKLO: 77.43 → 55.90 (minus 28 percent)

• UUUU: 22.42 → 16.24 (minus 28 percent)

• LEU: 228.76 → 170.00 (minus 26 percent)

• SMR: 13.23 → 10.12 (minus 23 percent)

• NNE: 28.74 → 22.35 (minus 22 percent)

• CCJ: 123.17 → 103.99 (minus 16 percent)

• DNN: 3.86 → 3.20 (minus 17 percent)

This is painful, but 247 Wall Street is correct: this is not a fundamental shift in the nuclear thesis. It is the natural other side of the violent 30 to 80 percent rallies from April 9 to May 11. Three macro forces combined to create a perfect storm for high beta pullbacks:

1. Global bond selloff pushing yields to 4.62 percent on the 10 year, crushing high duration/speculative equities

2. Tech rotation as memory chips, data centers, and AI speculative names sell off ahead of Nvidia earnings tomorrow

3. Iran uncertainty as Trump postponed an attack but no deal was reached, keeping geopolitical risk premium volatile

The thesis anchors remain:

• Uranium at 85.25 dollars, down just 2 percent from the monthly high despite equities dropping 20 to 30 percent. The commodity is not confirming the equity selloff.

• Long term pricing at 90 to 93 dollars per pound, near multi decade highs.

• BofA still targeting 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026.

• Saskatchewan flooding creating real supply risk.

• CME moving toward physical uranium futures.

• 247 Wall Street, CarbonCredits, and ANS all confirming the structural deficit is intact.

Positioning framework (unchanged):

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

Key catalyst tomorrow: Nvidia earnings (after close Wednesday May 20). This is the single most important event for the entire AI power trade. If NVDA’s capex commentary confirms continued massive data center buildout, it will validate the demand side of the nuclear thesis and likely trigger a bounce in power and SMR names. If NVDA disappoints or signals capex deceleration, expect further selling pressure.

The sector is offering the best entry points since early April. If you believe in the structural thesis (uranium supply deficit, AI power demand, SMR deployment, policy tailwinds), these prices are a gift. If you’re uncomfortable with the volatility, wait for Nvidia earnings to provide direction.

WHAT THIS NOTE SAYS

• This note extends the prior Sivers work by isolating one specific mispriced asset inside the story: the jurisdictional sovereignty of Sivers’ wholly owned Glasgow InP fab, which SEQH argues now deserves its own valuation premium.

• The core claim is that in a market where three suppliers control most InP substrate supply, China gates exports with permits, and Western customers increasingly care about traceable sourcing, a PCAOB-auditable Western InP fab is no longer just a manufacturing asset, but a geopolitical hedge.

Why the chokepoint matters

• SEQH’s updated read of the InP substrate market is that effective supply is far more concentrated than headline wafer reports imply, with Sumitomo at roughly 52 to 60 percent, AXT and Tongmei around 30 to 35 percent, JX about 8 percent, and only a small Western fringe left.

• China added indium phosphide substrates to its export-control list in February 2025, and AXT’s own disclosures show that permits resumed for Europe and Japan but not for U.S. customers, helping drive North America revenue from 8 percent of group sales in 2024 to 2 percent in 2025 and 1 percent in Q1 2026.

• SEQH’s point is that nominal market share understates the real issue: the binding constraint for U.S. hyperscalers, defense primes, and CPO ecosystems is not total global InP supply, but how much can be sourced without Chinese permission.

Why Glasgow matters

• Sivers Photonics’ Glasgow site is presented as a rare Western sovereign InP cleanroomwith a full process stack from epitaxy to packaged laser arrays, sitting outside China MOFCOM export controls and outside China-origin tariff exposure.

• It also carries two additional features that make it strategically rare: PCAOB-compliant restated accounts as part of U.S. dual-listing preparation, and active participation in the NEMC Hub CHIPS Act consortium, with a combined first-year award of $11.6 million and a potential $30 million three-year envelope.

• SEQH argues this combination makes Glasgow one of very few InP-capable sites globally that can satisfy Western defense and hyperscaler procurement requirements around chain of custody, auditability, and trusted-supplier status.

Sovereignty premium

• The note benchmarks Sivers against other sovereignty-premium assets such as Cameco, MP Materials, Lynas, and Coherent’s Sherman InP operations, then assigns Sivers a central 1.83x sovereignty multiple, which sits between mature commodity provenance names and more vertically integrated rare earth platforms.

• SEQH decomposes platform value per share into four layers: SEK 22.50 of base DCF, SEK 3.20 from contracted CHIPS Act NPV, SEK 4.10 from EU Chips Act option value, and SEK 9.70 from the sovereignty premium itself, yielding about SEK 39.50 of platform value.

• Importantly, this is not a new price target. SEQH is not raising the prior target, but showing that about 25 percent of existing platform value is already being driven by the sovereignty attribute, even though most models do not isolate it explicitly.

Financial impact

• In SEQH’s central case, sovereignty adds about SEK 290 million, or roughly $28 million, of 2030 revenue on top of the prior commercial photonics ramp, taking base case 2030 revenue from about SEK 1,250 million to SEK 1,540 million.

• At an assumed 35 percent incremental EBITDA margin, that contributes roughly SEK 102 million of additional EBITDA, with an NPV of about SEK 580 million, or approximately SEK 1.81 per share post-raise.

• The broader sensitivity range is wide: depending on capture rate and pricing power, the sovereignty uplift spans roughly $2 million to $104 million of annual revenue in bear to bull outcomes, which is why SEQH treats it as an option-like pricing layer rather than a fixed contractual revenue stream.

What could break the thesis

• SEQH flags four main ways the sovereignty premium could compress: China broadly granting AXT U.S. export permits, Sumitomo bringing its 2028 capacity plan forward with U.S. allocation, future Section 301 tariffs being reduced or canceled, or Glasgow failing to scale beyond pilot throughput before 2028.

• So the argument is not that sovereignty alone makes Sivers, but that it explains a meaningful slice of why Sivers should continue to trade above a plain commercial-fab DCF.

• The conclusion remains OVERWEIGHT, with the sovereignty layer framed as a hidden valuation support inside the broader Sivers CPO, LiDAR, SATCOM, and RF-photonics platform.

CLICK LINK FOR FULL SUBSTACK ACCESS AND ALL FUTURE RESEARCH PDF REPORTS

FULL SIVE REPORT BELOW:

Read more

WHAT THIS NOTE SAYS

• The report argues that NANO Nuclear’s Q2 FY2026 print was incrementally favorable, and that the stock’s -9.5 percent reaction was profit taking and expectation reset, not a break in the core thesis.

• The key takeaway is that NNE has now moved from concept-stage story to a CPA-stage, fully capitalized microreactor developer with a visible licensing clock, multiple commercial pathways, and enough cash to fund years of execution without near-term financing pressure.

Balance sheet and burn

• NNE ended Q2 FY2026 with $197.7 million of cash and $371.2 million of short-term investments, or $568.9 million of total liquidity, against no debt and only about $8.0 million of total liabilities.

• At the reported Q2 operating cash burn of about $5.3 million, the theoretical opex-only runway is roughly 27 years, though SEQH adjusts for a realistic FY27 step-up and still gets about 9 to 12 years of runway at a $45 million to $60 million annualized opex profile.

• The core message is that NNE is now overcapitalized relative to any rational near-term capex schedule, which shifts the strategic question from “can they fund development?” to “how do they deploy excess capital accretively?”

Earnings quality

• Q2 FY2026 GAAP net loss was $9.2 million, or -$0.18 per diluted share, versus a -$21.3 million loss in the prior-year quarter, with most of the improvement driven by an 83.7 percent collapse in share-based compensation and higher interest income on the rebuilt treasury.

• EPS beat the Street by 14 cents, coming in at -$0.18 versus a -$0.32 estimate, although net loss widened sequentially by about $2.7 million because of hiring and CPA-related professional fees.

• SEQH reads the quarter as a clean normalization of the post-IPO P&L rather than a revenue event, with no sign of financial stress and no evidence that the underlying microreactor thesis has deteriorated.

Main catalysts

• The most important disclosed catalyst is the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Part 50 Construction Permit Application, submitted at the end of March 2026, with formal NRC acceptance expected within days and a roughly 12 month review clock to follow.

• SEQH sees CPA acceptance as the most important near-term share price catalyst because it formalizes NNE’s claim to a 2027 first-concrete deployment narrative, something very few Gen IV peers can match.

• A second major catalyst is the BaRupOn Texas feasibility outcome, which validated up to 1 GW of staged KRONOS capacity at one site, implying roughly 65 reactors if the site were fully built out.

• Additional optionality comes from the Supermicro, EHC UAE, and DS Dansuk KoreaMOUs, which SEQH sees as the beginnings of a commercial flywheel across AI data center power, Gulf-region deployment, and reactor-core manufacturing localization.

What the market is missing

• SEQH argues two structural items remain underappreciated. First, the proposed NRC Part 57 framework could flatten post-2030 fleet deployment costs and timelines for microreactors in a way that is not captured in current sell-side models.

• Second, management’s disclosed late-stage fuel transportation acquisition could create a regulated bottleneck moat in HALEU and TRISO logistics, making NNE the only listed microreactor developer actively pursuing true end-to-end fuel-cycle vertical integration.

• SEQH estimates this tuck-in could be a $40 million to $80 million deal and sees it as well within balance sheet capacity and potentially margin accretive over time.

Positioning and risks

• On SEQH’s framing, NNE is now the highest-conviction vertically integrated microreactor exposure in coverage, trading at about 2.3 times cash and investments and roughly 1.83 times market cap to total liquidity, which is unusually compressed for a developer at active CPA stage.

• The main risks are clear: an NRC acceptance delay would hurt momentum, ATM issuance at weak prices would dilute the cash-backed floor, HALEU availability could still lag, the transportation acquisition could misfire, and the visible pipeline is still concentrated in a small number of counterparties.

• The broad conclusion is that NNE now looks less like a speculative capital markets vehicle and more like a well-funded licensing and deployment platform, with the next major rerating likely tied to regulatory acceptance and the first proof that vertical integration is being executed in practice.

CLICK LINK FOR FULL REPORT AND FULL SUBSTACK ACCESS

FULL REPORT BELOW:

Read more

Friday, May 15, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex closed Friday with a heavy, indiscriminate selloff as a global bond rout sent yields surging and dragged equities sharply lower. All 28 names in the coverage universe finished red. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all sank as rising bond yields crushed risk appetite across every sector.

The selloff comes on a confluence of macro catalysts:

• Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair officially expired today, May 15. Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump, is undergoing confirmation but the transition process has been fraught with uncertainty, including an ongoing federal investigation into Powell’s renovations at the Federal Reserve and concerns that the White House may be unjustly targeting Powell.

• The Trump-Xi summit (May 14-15) was viewed as an informal deadline for a resolution to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. With no definitive ceasefire announced, markets sold off into the weekend as the “hope trade” for an Iran deal lost momentum.

• Inflation is roiling bond markets. Bloomberg’s May 14 feature highlighted that yields are rising on persistent inflation concerns, with multiple strategists warning that “bonds have much more to sell off in 2026”.

This was a macro driven, risk off session with no sector specific catalyst.

2. Equity Movers - Full Universe

Every name in the coverage universe closed red. The damage was worst in high beta SMR and junior names.

Deepest Red (minus 7 to minus 10 percent)

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 11.54 dollars, minus 10.06 percent on 1.1 million shares.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 24.90 dollars, minus 9.59 percent on 2.8 million shares.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.67 dollars, minus 8.74 percent on 8.8 million shares.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 277.50 dollars, minus 8.54 percent on 10.0 million shares.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 5.80 dollars, minus 8.52 percent on 454.2 thousand shares.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 61.95 dollars, minus 7.83 percent on 11.8 million shares.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 3.75 dollars, minus 7.28 percent on 3.9 million shares.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 11.20 dollars, minus 7.10 percent on 24.9 million shares.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 13.76 dollars, minus 7.09 percent on 9.9 million shares.

Moderate Red (minus 4 to minus 7 percent)

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 11.21 dollars, minus 6.35 percent on 6.5 million shares.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.94 dollars, minus 6.35 percent on 5.4 million shares.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 27.40 dollars, minus 6.36 percent on 5.1 million shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.28 dollars, minus 6.01 percent on 17.8 million shares.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 18.44 dollars, minus 5.44 percent on 8.2 million shares. A YouTube analysis from May 12 noted that UUUU reported 112 percent year over year revenue growth in Q1 2026.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 182.39 dollars, minus 5.16 percent on 911.7 thousand shares.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 334.68 dollars, minus 5.16 percent on 646.3 thousand shares.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 712.72 dollars, minus 5.08 percent on 367.8 thousand shares.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.40 dollars, minus 5.03 percent.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 18.00 dollars, minus 4.86 percent on 3.0 million shares.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 5.81 dollars, minus 4.60 percent on 4.2 million shares. ASPI has pulled back below the 5.86 to 6.32 dollar breakout zone, a failed breakout that needs to be watched.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.55 dollars, minus 4.32 percent on 2.5 million shares.

Lighter Red (minus 1 to minus 4 percent)

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 108.15 dollars, minus 3.88 percent on 3.1 million shares.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 204.50 dollars, minus 3.05 percent on 847.3 thousand shares.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 267.90 dollars, minus 2.67 percent on 3.8 million shares. CEG has now fallen 35 percent from its 52 week high of 412.70 dollars.

• SLX AT closed at 5.58 euros, minus 2.62 percent.

• SILXY closed at 20.72 dollars, minus 0.93 percent.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 140.79 dollars, minus 0.78 percent on 6.6 million shares.

3. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium Spotlight’s May 12 update confirmed that spot opened last week at 86.05 dollars and closed Friday at 85.85 dollars, down 20 cents on the week. Trading Economics’ last update on May 14 was 86.15 dollars per pound, up 0.64 percent over the past month and 20.32 percent year over year.

• Critical supply developments this week: Uranium Spotlight’s May 12 podcast delivered several major items:

  1. Flooding in Saskatchewan is disrupting northern uranium operations, raising fresh supply concerns for Cameco’s McArthur River and Cigar Lake and NexGen’s Rook I development

  2. CME is moving toward a physical uranium futures contract, which could reshape market liquidity and bring institutional capital directly into the commodity

  3. Ireland signals a shift toward nuclear power, opening another potential demand channel

  4. NexGen expands high grade mineralization at Patterson Corridor East, adding resource upside to the Rook I project

• Long term pricing: TradeTech at 93 dollars per pound (March 31), Cameco at 91.50, Uranium Spotlight’s April at 90 dollars. All at or near multi decade highs.

• BofA forecast: Bank of America continues to target uranium at 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026 with CCJ as the preferred equity play at a 125 dollar price target.

4. SEQH Desk View

This was the worst week for the nuclear complex since the April 9 lows, and it was entirely macro driven. The global bond selloff, Powell’s term expiration, the stalled Trump-Xi summit on Iran, and surging yields combined to create an indiscriminate risk off event that hit every high beta sector, with nuclear taking outsized damage due to its elevated beta and the magnitude of the April to May rally.

But critically, the uranium thesis is not only intact—it strengthened this week:

1. Saskatchewan flooding is disrupting uranium operations at exactly the wrong time, raising real supply risk for the world’s most important uranium production region.

2. CME is moving toward a physical uranium futures contract, which would bring institutional liquidity and price discovery to the commodity, structurally bullish for uranium.

3. Spot held 85.85 to 86.15 dollars despite the equity carnage, confirming that the commodity is not broken.

4. Long term pricing remains at 90 to 93 dollars, near multi decade highs.

5. UUUU reported 112 percent year over year revenue growth in Q1, and the White Mesa Mill REE expansion continues.

6. BofA still targets 130 dollars per pound uranium by Q4 2026.

The Reuters May 1 analysis is worth revisiting: the S&P 500 recovered nearly 10 percent in just 11 trading sessions after the March selloff, and following the traditional “sell in May” playbook “could be a costly mistake” given robust earnings, diminishing geopolitical tensions, and market momentum. The nuclear complex has shown the same pattern: violent drawdowns followed by V-shaped recoveries.

Positioning framework (unchanged):

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

ASPI watch: The pullback below 5.86 dollars (now at 5.81) means the breakout above the technical buy zone has failed for now. We need to see ASPI reclaim 5.86 to 6.00 with conviction before re-entering aggressively.

Weekend catalysts to watch:

• Trump-Xi summit outcome on Iran and Strait of Hormuz

• Kevin Warsh Fed confirmation timeline and first policy signals

• Saskatchewan flooding updates for Cameco and NexGen operations

• CME physical uranium futures development

If you have dry powder, today’s prices represent some of the best entry points since mid-April across the entire complex. CCJ at 108, UEC at 13.76, LEU at 182, DNN at 3.28, UUUU at 18.44, and NXE at 11.21 are all well below recent highs with the structural thesis fully intact.

Thursday, May 14, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex finished Thursday in a mixed but constructive posture: SMR, advanced nuclear, and select satellites (ASPI, NNE, NUAI, SKBL) pushed higher while several core producers and IPPs (CCJ, UEC, TLN, VST) digested recent moves. The broader market continued to march higher, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.8 percent to another all time high, the Dow gaining 0.7 percent and closing above 50,000 for the first time since the war with Iran began, and the Nasdaq adding 0.9 percent to its own record. AI related tech and semiconductors again led the tape.

Uranium rose to 86.15 dollars per pound on May 14, up 0.12 percent from the prior day, up 0.64 percent over the past month, and up 20.32 percent year over year, according to Trading Economics’ CFD that tracks the benchmark market. Investing.com’s futures series shows 86.05 on May 13, 86.30 on May 12, 86.15 on May 11, 86.20 on May 8, highlighting the extremely tight 86 to 87 dollar band the market has held for weeks. FRED’s global uranium price for March 2026 was 68.79 dollars, down from 71.30 in February but up from 51.83 one year ago, confirming a higher structural floor despite month to month noise.

TradeTech’s April 14 press release reiterated that the Long-Term Uranium Price Indicator climbed to 93.00 dollars per pound on March 31, up 6.50 dollars since December 31, driven by “historically high forecast nuclear fuel requirements”. This remains the highest long term indicator since 2008.

2. Equity Movers - Leaders

Leadership was centered in advanced nuclear, satellites, and niche names.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 6.34 dollars, plus 8.19 percent on 479.5 thousand shares. NKLR continues to trade as a high beta satellite, and today’s move comes after several days of consolidation around the 6 dollar level.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 28.21 dollars, plus 4.27 percent on 2.1 million shares. NNE remains one of the strongest SMR/advanced nuclear performers since early April.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 5.20 dollars, plus 4.21 percent on 6.5 million shares.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 301.80 dollars, plus 4.16 percent on 8.0 million shares. BE continues to benefit from the Oracle AI data center power deal, where Oracle plans to purchase up to 2.8 gigawatts of Bloom’s solid oxide fuel cell systems for its AI buildout, and from a 5 billion dollar AI infrastructure initiative with Brookfield Asset Management.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.58 dollars, plus 4.07 percent.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 11.99 dollars, plus 0.25 percent on 28.1 million shares, modestly green after yesterday’s drawdown.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 356.00 dollars, plus 1.42 percent on 595.5 thousand shares, bouncing slightly after yesterday’s 6 percent decline. TLN recently reaffirmed 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of 1.75 to 2.05 billion dollars and Adjusted FCF of 980 to 1,180 million, despite raising 4 billion dollars of new senior unsecured notes in April.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.64 dollars, plus 3.14 percent on 2.8 million shares.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 19.15 dollars, plus 2.74 percent on 3.0 million shares, again with a wide intraday range of 18.82 to 19.55 dollars.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 214.00 dollars, plus 3.47 percent on 1.1 million shares. Zacks’ May 12 update lists BWXT at 206.83 dollars with a 2.85 percent 12 week gain, a 44.11 forward PE, and 16.93 percent projected EPS growth.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 276.09 dollars, plus 0.44 percent on 3.6 million shares, stabilizing after yesterday’s 6 percent drop.

3. Equity Movers - Red Prints

Most of the red was in core producers and royalty names, with moves in the 2 to 4 percent range.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 29.38 dollars, minus 5.19 percent on 3.5 million shares. XE remains in post IPO price discovery; recall it raised 1.017 billion dollars at a 14 billion dollar valuation, backed by Amazon and Ark Invest.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 6.11 dollars, minus 3.32 percent on 4.0 million shares, giving back part of yesterday’s 6.95 percent move but remaining above the 5.86 to 6.32 dollar breakout band.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 14.82 dollars, minus 3.58 percent on 7.9 million shares. Zacks continues to highlight UEC as a top nuclear stock with 43.14 percent projected EPS growth and a strong balance sheet.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 19.50 dollars, minus 3.37 percent on 7.9 million shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.48 dollars, minus 3.06 percent on 23.5 million shares, now roughly flat versus the April 9 close of 3.58 dollars after a large April rally and May giveback.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 67.10 dollars, minus 3.67 percent on 14.8 million shares. Despite recent volatility, Oklo remains up roughly 40 percent from its April 9 close of 48.00 dollars.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 3.99 dollars, minus 2.21 percent on 1.8 million shares, just below the 4 dollar level.

• SILXY closed at 20.92 dollars, minus 2.65 percent.

• SLX AT closed at 5.73 euros, minus 2.22 percent.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 112.34 dollars, minus 2.64 percent on 3.2 million shares. Bank of America continues to see CCJ as its preferred nuclear name with a 125 dollar price targetand expects uranium to reach 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.82 dollars, minus 2.84 percent on 9.1 million shares.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 11.98 dollars, minus 1.64 percent on 5.5 million shares.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 191.93 dollars, minus 0.20 percent.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 141.86 dollars, minus 0.53 percent on 5.1 million shares.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 750.84 dollars, minus 0.02 percent, essentially flat but with a wide intraday range of 728.04 to 813.72 dollars.

The common pattern: after multiple days of strong gains across producers and developers, the tape rotated back into advanced nuclear (NNE, NKLR, NUAI), niche names (SKBL, EU, MIR), and quality contractors (BWXT, CW) while leaving the commodity essentially unchanged and the broader market at new highs.

4. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium rose to 86.15 dollars per pound on May 14, up 0.12 percent on the day, up 0.64 percent over the past month, and up 20.32 percent year over year. Investing.com’s futures data confirms 86.05 on May 13, 86.30 on May 12, 86.15 on May 11, 86.20 on May 8, showing the extremely tight range.

• Monthly and global context: YCharts shows the March 2026 average spot at 68.79 dollars, down from 71.30 in February but up from 51.83 one year ago, a 32.70 percent year over year increase. FRED’s global uranium price series for March 2026 is also 68.79 dollars, with 69.71 in January, 71.30 in February, and 63.51 in December 2025, confirming the rising structural floor.

• Long term pricing: TradeTech’s long term indicator at 93 dollars per pound as of March 31, Cameco at 91.50 dollars, and Uranium Spotlight’s April at 90 dollars.

• UXK26 futures: The May 2026 uranium futures contract (UXK26) continues to trade near 86 dollars with a first notice date of May 22, eight days away. The roll into the June contract is ongoing but appears orderly.

• Sector quality screeners: Zacks’ May 12 “5 Top Nuclear Energy Stocks to Buy Today” list includes Denison (DNN), BWXT, Rolls Royce (RYCEY), and notes DNN’s 560.70 percent projected sales growth, BWXT’s 16.93 percent projected EPS growth, and Rolls Royce’s 28.21 percent projected EPS growth.

5. SEQH Desk View

Today was quietly positive for the theme, even though a handful of core producers printed red. The key points:

• Uranium is 86.15 dollars, slightly higher on the day and up modestly month over month and 20 percent year over year.

• The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all printed new records, with AI and semis driving indices higher. This is the exact macro environment where SMR and AI power proxies (BE, NUAI, Oklo, SMR, XE) should and did perform well.

• The rotation from producers (CCJ, UEC, DNN, UUUU) into satellites and advanced nuclear (ASPI, NNE, NKLR, NUAI, SKBL, EU, MIR, BWXT) is normal after several days of strong producer outperformance.

The structural thesis remains unchanged:

• Spot: mid 80s, grinding higher 86.15today86.15today.

• Term: 90 to 93 dollars, highest since 2008.

• Forecasts: BofA targets 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026, with CCJ as their top pick.

• AI power: BE’s Oracle deal and Brookfield AI initiative prove that AI data center power demand is real and huge.

• Macro: Markets at record highs, oil above 100 dollars per barrel, and inflation prints still hot, all supporting nuclear as the premier clean baseload hedge.

Positioning framework remains:

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

With uranium inching higher, long term pricing pinned near 90 plus, and AI power deals compounding, the complex remains in a secular bull phase. Today’s modest producer red and satellite green is just another rotation within that trend.

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex was split decisively today, with IPPs and nuclear utilities getting hammered while producers, SMR names, and BE held up or rallied. The session was defined by two major events: Constellation Energy (CEG) earnings disappointment and Talen Energy (TLN) reporting Q1 results this morning, both of which triggered sharp selloffs in the IPP bucket while the rest of the complex traded independently.

CEG’s ongoing struggles have been well documented: the stock has now fallen roughly 33 percent from its 52 week high of 412.70 dollars reached in October 2025. TIKR’s analysis notes that CEG is down roughly 22 percent from highs even after the Calpine acquisition fundamentally repriced the business, adding EBITDA that surged from 0.84 billion in Q4 2025 to a consensus 2.02 billion in Q1 2026, a 189 percent year over year increase. But without new data center contracts announced, the re-rating catalyst remains delayed. Today’s likely earnings report appears to have further disappointed, driving CEG down 6.18 percent and dragging TLN (minus 6.04) and VST (minus 2.73) with it.

TLN reported Q1 2026 results on May 5 showing GAAP net income of 63 million dollars, Adjusted EBITDA of 473 million dollars, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of 350 million dollars, with 2026 guidance reaffirmed at Adjusted EBITDA of 1,750 to 2,050 million dollars and Adjusted FCF of 980 to 1,180 million dollars. TLN also raised 4 billion dollars in new senior unsecured notes in April (1.5 billion at 6.125 percent due 2031 and 2.5 billion at 6.375 percent due 2033), which signals confidence but also adds leverage. Today’s minus 6.04 percent drop on TLN may reflect the heavy debt load and sympathy selling with CEG.

2. Equity Movers - Leaders

Despite the IPP carnage, a healthy number of names posted gains.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 6.39 dollars, plus 6.95 percent on 6.3 million shares. ASPI has now confirmed the breakout above the 5.86 to 6.32 dollar technical zone, holding above it for a second consecutive session. Cantor’s 11 dollar and Canaccord’s 13 dollarprice targets still imply 72 to 103 percent upside from current levels . ASPI is up roughly 51 percent from the April 9 close of 4.23 dollars.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 291.78 dollars, plus 3.95 percent on 9.1 million shares, continuing to trade as a decoupled AI data center power play.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 751.00 dollars, plus 2.13 percent on 301.0 thousand shares.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 27.50 dollars, plus 1.51 percent on 1.7 million shares.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 12.10 dollars, plus 0.81 percent on 28.4 million shares.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 208.00 dollars, plus 0.57 percent on 1.0 million shares.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.52 dollars, plus 0.57 percent.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.94 dollars, plus 0.41 percent on 8.5 million shares.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 12.33 dollars, plus 0.07 percent, essentially flat.

3. Equity Movers - Red Prints

The red side was dominated by IPPs and producers.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 275.45 dollars, minus 6.18 percent on 6.6 million shares. Barron’s previously noted that CEG “whiffed” on its investor day in March by failing to announce any new data center power deals. TIKR’s analysis frames CEG at roughly 275 dollars as trading well below a 541 dollar DCF target, but warns the re-rating catalyst (new data center contracts) has not materialized.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 352.00 dollars, minus 6.04 percent on 1.5 million shares, despite having reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA guidance of 1,750 to 2,050 million dollars. MarketBeat confirms TLN closed at 351.03 dollars, down 6.29 percent.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 69.86 dollars, minus 5.12 percent on 14.2 million shares.

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 12.99 dollars, minus 3.20 percent.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.60 dollars, minus 3.06 percent on 3.6 million shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.59 dollars, minus 2.97 percent on 24.7 million shares.

• SILXY closed at 21.48 dollars, minus 3.92 percent.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 20.34 dollars, minus 2.92 percent on 6.9 million shares.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 30.84 dollars, minus 2.84 percent on 4.7 million shares.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 142.86 dollars, minus 2.73 percent on 6.4 million shares. VST has now pulled back from 166.76 on April 27 to 142.86 today, a decline of roughly 14 percentin just over two weeks.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.89 dollars, minus 2.54 percent on 10.4 million shares, giving back some of yesterday’s 7.67 percent gain.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 193.80 dollars, minus 4.22 percent on 721.1 thousand shares.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 4.12 dollars, minus 1.93 percent on 2.1 million shares.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 5.87 dollars, minus 1.68 percent.

• SLX AT closed at 5.86 euros, minus 1.68 percent.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 18.65 dollars, minus 1.64 percent on 3.6 million shares, with the typical wide intraday range of 16.78 to 19.28 dollars.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 115.81 dollars, minus 0.96 percent on 3.4 million shares. Bank of America’s 125 dollar price target and forecast of uranium to 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026 continue to frame CCJ as the firm’s preferred nuclear name.

• UEC closed at 15.45 dollars, minus 0.32 percent, essentially flat.

4. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium remains flat at 86.20 dollars per pound on May 11. CarbonCredits describes the market as in “tight equilibrium” with flat daily activity balanced by structural bullishness from Kazatomprom constraints, Russian sanctions, and tech driven SMR demand.

• Long term: TradeTech at 93 dollars per pound (March 31), Cameco at 91.50 dollars(March), Uranium Spotlight’s April at 90 dollars. All in the 90 to 93 dollar band.

• BofA forecast: Bank of America’s Michael Widmer expects uranium to climb to 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026, followed by 135 in 2027, implying over 50 percent upside from current levels. This would match highs last seen in 2008. BofA’s preferred equity pick is Cameco with a 125 dollar price target.

• Supply deficit: Seeking Alpha’s December 2025 analysis estimated that mine supply would be down and reactor demand up for 2026, producing an outright deficit in the global uranium market. With roughly 180 million pounds of annual demand versus 140 million pounds of mine production, the structural gap continues to widen.

5. SEQH Desk View

Today was an IPP driven selloff that does not reflect the broader nuclear thesis. CEG’s minus 6.18 and TLN’s minus 6.04 dragged sentiment, but the underlying causes are company specific:

• CEG is struggling with a delayed data center re-rating catalyst and 2026 guidance that missed expectations. At 275.45 dollars, the stock is now 33 percent below its October 2025 high of 412.70 and trading at a significant discount to TIKR’s 541 dollar DCF target. The Calpine acquisition is adding massive EBITDA (consensus 189 percent year over year growth in Q1), but the market wants new data center power deals before re-rating higher.

• TLN reaffirmed solid guidance (EBITDA 1,750 to 2,050 million, FCF 980 to 1,180 million) but the 4 billion dollars in new debt and sympathy selling with CEG weighed on the stock.

Meanwhile, the rest of the complex was constructive:

• ASPI confirmed its breakout above 6.32 dollars with a 6.95 percent gain

• BE continued its run at 291.78, plus 3.95 percent

• SMR names (NNE, SMR, NUAI) posted small gains or held flat

• Uranium holds the mid 86s with BofA projecting 130 dollars per pound by year end

The key question for the IPP bucket is whether CEG’s failure to announce new data center contracts represents a temporary delay or a structural issue. Given the massive demand from AI data centers (confirmed by BE’s Oracle deal, the US-Japan SMR initiative, and every major tech company’s nuclear procurement efforts), the most likely scenario is that CEG’s data center deals are a matter of when, not if, and the current discount to DCF value is an opportunity.

Positioning framework (unchanged):

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

Q2 Promo - 20 Percent Off Yearly Paid Substack Membership (For Life)

SEQH Capital Research is offering 20 percent off our yearly paid Substack membership, locked in for life.

• Discount: 20 percent off the standard yearly rate

• Lock in: Your discounted rate is guaranteed for as long as your yearly subscription stays active

• What you get:

  • Full nuclear and uranium sector coverage, including daily and weekly recaps, deep dives, and tear sheets

  • Real time desk notes on positioning, catalysts, and risk management

  • Model portfolio updates, entry and exit bands, and scenario work across the uranium and nuclear stack

To claim the offer, upgrade to a yearly paid membership on our Substack checkout page. The discount will auto apply and remain in place for the life of your subscription.

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex had a broad risk off session following a packed earnings week and a CPI print that landed this morning. The CPI Index (NSA) came in at 333.02 versus a prior of 330.21, while the Core CPI print also reflected persistent inflationary pressure. This pushed yields higher and weighed on high beta growth names across all sectors. Monday’s session had seen the S&P 500 set a new record at 7,412.84 (up 0.19 percent), with the Dow at 49,847 and the Nasdaq at 26,274, both at new all time highs for the seventh consecutive week. Crude oil was at 98 dollars per barrel, gold at 4,746.70 dollars, and Bitcoin at 81,940 dollars.

Investors this week are digesting a heavy nuclear earnings calendar: Vistra, NuScale Power, Energy Fuels, and Oklo all reported this week, with Oklo surging after announcing significant regulatory clearance for the Aurora small modular reactor. However, Vistra did not participate in the Oklo driven rally, and the broader IPP complex sold off today.

Uranium spot remains flat at 86.20 dollars per pound on May 11, with CarbonCredits confirming that quiet spot trading is balancing robust long term fundamentals and that downward pressure is “severely restricted” by Kazatomprom production constraints, Western sanctions on Russian fuel, and aggressive long term contracting by US tech giants securing SMR capacity for AI data centers. The commodity continues to hold the mid 86s in what CarbonCredits describes as a “tightly equilibrated” market.

Cameco reported Q1 2026 results today: the uranium segment delivered 7.8 million pounds of U3O8 during Q1, supported by production of 6.2 million pounds, with EPS beating forecasts. Despite the beat, CCJ sold off 2.96 percent, consistent with a “sell the news” dynamic in today’s broader risk off tape.

2. Equity Movers - Leaders

A small number of names bucked the selloff.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.96 dollars, plus 7.67 percent on 19.6 million shares, leading the tape. URG continues to benefit from the Shirley Basin restart narrative and strong volume, and is now up roughly 24 percent from the April 9 close of 1.58 dollars.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.46 dollars, plus 4.53 percent on 371.0 thousand shares.

• SILXY closed at 22.36 dollars, plus 3.52 percent.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 18.96 dollars, plus 2.65 percent on 4.9 million shares, with its usual wide intraday range of 18.12 to 18.96 dollars.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 735.34 dollars, plus 0.93 percent on 270.0 thousand shares.

3. Equity Movers - Red Prints

The majority of the coverage universe was red, with the heaviest selling in SMR and developer names.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 12.05 dollars, minus 9.33 percent on 41.0 million shares, the day’s biggest loser. The selloff comes during NuScale’s earnings week and may reflect guidance or execution concerns following the report.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 72.23 dollars, minus 7.55 percent on 15.5 million shares. Despite today’s drop, Oklo received significant Aurora regulatory clearance this week, which triggered a massive rally earlier in the week. Still up roughly 50 percent from the April 9 close of 48.00 dollars.

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 13.14 dollars, minus 7.53 percent on 967.8 thousand shares.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 15.48 dollars, minus 6.01 percent on 9.9 million shares.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 202.36 dollars, minus 5.09 percent on 766.2 thousand shares.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 21.00 dollars, minus 4.72 percent on 10.2 million shares. UUUU reported earnings this week; Crux Investor’s May update highlighted uranium production growth, domestic terbium oxide production, and the Russian uranium banas key tailwinds.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 5.97 dollars, minus 4.02 percent on 5.2 million shares. ASPI pulled back after yesterday’s 15.80 percent surge but remains above the 5.86 to 6.32 dollar breakout zone.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 27.21 dollars, minus 4.02 percent on 2.2 million shares.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 31.80 dollars, minus 3.96 percent on 4.0 million shares.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 280.63 dollars, minus 1.16 percent on 7.5 million shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.71 dollars, minus 3.64 percent on 30.3 million shares.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 146.89 dollars, minus 3.39 percent on 4.9 million shares. Investors’ Business Daily noted that Vistra did not participate in the Oklo driven nuclear rally this week and is underperforming the complex.

• SLX AT closed at 5.96 euros, minus 3.09 percent.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 4.23 dollars, minus 2.98 percent on 2.8 million shares.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 116.58 dollars, minus 2.96 percent on 3.9 million shares. CCJ reported Q1 with 6.2 million pounds produced, 7.8 million pounds delivered, and an EPS beat. The selloff on a beat is classic “sell the news” positioning.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 5.91 dollars, minus 2.48 percent on 234.8 thousand shares.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.63 dollars, minus 2.40 percent on 3.4 million shares.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 12.37 dollars, minus 2.29 percent on 8.6 million shares.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 293.00 dollars, minus 2.23 percent on 3.8 million shares.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 374.90 dollars, minus 2.23 percent on 639.8 thousand shares.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 206.82 dollars, minus 1.89 percent on 1.2 million shares.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.92 dollars, minus 1.60 percent on 5.2 million shares.

4. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium flat at 86.20 dollars per pound on May 11. CarbonCredits describes the market as in “consolidation” with flat spot activity balanced by structurally bullish fundamentals: Kazatomprom constraints, Russian sanctions, and tech driven SMR demand. Trading Economics expects uranium to rise to 87.50 dollars by quarter end and 92.48 in 12 months.

• Cameco Q1 production: Cameco delivered 7.8 million pounds of U3O8 in Q1, supported by 6.2 million pounds of production, with EPS beating forecasts. This confirms that the world’s largest Western producer is executing on plan, which is necessary but not sufficient to close the structural supply deficit.

• Long term pricing: TradeTech’s long term indicator at 93 dollars per pound (March 31), Cameco’s at 91.50 dollars, and Uranium Spotlight’s April at 90 dollars. All clustered in the 90 to 93 dollar zone.

• Price forecasts: The base case from Virtue of Selfish Investing’s December 2025 model projected 95 to 110 dollars per pound by December 2026 (60 percent probability), with a bull case of 120 to 135 dollars (25 percent) and a bear case of 75 to 85 dollars (15 percent). Current spot at 86.20 dollars sits right at the bottom of the base case range, suggesting significant upside if the macro environment cooperates.

• UXK26 contract roll: The May 2026 uranium futures contract has a first notice date of May 22, just 10 days away.

5. SEQH Desk View

Today’s session was a classic post earnings and hot CPI selloff: the CPI print pushed yields higher, hot earnings from Oklo and Cameco triggered “sell the news” reactions, and high beta names gave back some of the massive gains from the past month. The pattern is identical to what we saw on April 21 and April 28: dips that look scary in isolation but are completely normal when viewed against the magnitude of the rally.

Key context:

• Uranium is holding the 86 dollar handle. At 86.20 dollars, spot remains firm, CarbonCredits describes the market as in “tight equilibrium,” and TE’s models project 87.50 by quarter end and 92.48 in 12 months.

• Cameco’s Q1 beat confirms execution. Production of 6.2 million pounds, deliveries of 7.8 million pounds, and an EPS beat demonstrate that the world’s largest Western producer is on track. The selloff on a beat is positioning driven, not fundamental.

• Oklo’s Aurora regulatory clearance is a watershed. Investors’ Business Daily confirmed this was the catalyst for this week’s earlier nuclear rally. The Aurora approval advances SMR deployment timelines and has read through implications for NuScale, X-Energy, and the entire advanced reactor stack.

• URG’s 7.67 percent gain in a sea of red is notable. Ur Energy is benefiting from the Shirley Basin restart and the domestic production premium created by the Russian uranium ban. When a junior producer rallies while everything else sells off, it suggests company specific buying interest.

Positioning framework (unchanged):

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

Upcoming catalysts:

• Nvidia earnings May 20 (AI capex commentary will move the entire power and data center complex)

• UXK26 first notice date May 22

• World Nuclear Supply Chain conference May 20-21

• Ongoing nuclear earnings reactions (Vistra, NuScale, OKLO post earnings flow)

The structural bull case continues to be validated by every fundamental data point: uranium in the mid 80s grinding toward 90, long term pricing at 93 dollars, Cameco producing on plan, Oklo clearing regulatory hurdles, and massive institutional flow into nuclear ETFs. Today’s selloff offers better entry points across the board for those with conviction and time horizon.

Q2 Promo - 20 Percent Off Yearly Paid Substack Membership (For Life)

SEQH Capital Research is offering 20 percent off our yearly paid Substack membership, locked in for life.

• Discount: 20 percent off the standard yearly rate

• Lock in: Your discounted rate is guaranteed for as long as your yearly subscription stays active

• What you get:

  • Full nuclear and uranium sector coverage, including daily and weekly recaps, deep dives, and tear sheets

  • Real time desk notes on positioning, catalysts, and risk management

  • Model portfolio updates, entry and exit bands, and scenario work across the uranium and nuclear stack

To claim the offer, upgrade to a yearly paid membership on our Substack checkout page. The discount will auto apply and remain in place for the life of your subscription.

CLICK LINK FOR Q2 PROMO AND FULL SUBSTACK ACCESS

SEQH Capital Research | May 11, 2026

Scope

This report is focused on one question only: which European company is the most likely counterparty to Quantum Leap Energy’s May 11, 2026 memorandum of understanding for future HALEU supply. It excludes broader ASPI valuation work, financial analysis, and non essential company background in order to stay tightly focused on counterparty identification.

What QLE Disclosed

Public reporting on the May 11 announcement establishes several important facts about the MOU.

• QLE signed a non binding MOU with an unnamed European nuclear technology company.

• The counterparty is described in market coverage as a European advanced reactor developer.

• The arrangement contemplates QLE supplying HALEU, not conventional LEU.

• The European company would provide uranium feedstock, while QLE would enrich the material and potentially perform related conversion and deconversion services.

• Potential deliveries could begin in 2028 and extend into the 2030s, while the framework agreement itself runs through December 31, 2030.

• The parties will evaluate technical, operational, and economic feasibility before any definitive agreement.

Taken together, those details strongly suggest the counterparty is not a generic utility or fuel trader. The structure is more consistent with a reactor developer trying to secure future fuel optionality for a specific advanced reactor program.

Analytical Framework

Read more

Monday, May 11, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex opened the second full week of May with a strong, broad based rally led by producers, juniors, and SMR developers, with 25 of 28 names closing green. The broader market was mixed, with the S&P 500 up 0.21 percent as investors digested the latest developments in US-Iran negotiations. Iran offered to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ships and ports, but President Trump rejected the proposal on social media as “totally unacceptable”, keeping the geopolitical risk premium intact. Oil prices climbed in premarket on the stalled negotiations. The S&P 500 remains up over 15 percent from its March 30 low and near record highs, with Schwab noting that the rally is broadening and Wall Street remains on pace for sharp weekly gains.

Uranium fell to 86.20 dollars per pound on May 8, down 0.06 percent from the prior day, up 0.47 percent over the past month, and 22.70 percent higher year over year. Investing.com’s daily series shows the recent trajectory: 86.55 on May 1, 86.45 on May 4 and 5, 86.25 on May 6, 86.20 on May 8. The commodity has pulled back slightly from the 87.15 April 23 high but remains firmly entrenched in the mid 86 dollar range, consistent with a tight market consolidating near recent highs. The UXK26 May futures contract has a first notice date of May 22, just 11 days away.

MarketBeat’s May 11 nuclear screener names Oklo, NuScale Power, Centrus Energy, X-Energy, and BWX Technologies as the five nuclear stocks to watch. Yahoo Finance’s May 7 feature names NuScale Power, Oklo, and SpaceX as “3 Powerful Nuclear Energy Stocks to Buy in May”.

2. Equity Movers - Leaders

Today’s leadership was exceptionally broad, with producers, developers, SMR, and power names all participating.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 6.23 dollars, plus 15.80 percent on 9.8 million shares, blowing through the 5.86 to 6.32 dollar technical buy zone that we have been tracking for weeks . ASPI is now up roughly 47 percent from the April 9 close of 4.23 dollars.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 16.68 dollars, plus 10.03 percent on 10.1 million shares. UEC continues to be highlighted as a top nuclear stock for May with 43.14 percent projected EPS growth.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 285.48 dollars, plus 9.37 percent on 11.4 million shares, bouncing back from last week’s pullback. BE remains the flagship AI data center power play.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 32.85 dollars, plus 8.85 percent on 6.0 million shares. MarketBeat continues to flag XE among the top five nuclear stocks to watch.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.88 dollars, plus 8.04 percent on 15.6 million shares.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 4.32 dollars, plus 7.88 percent on 3.7 million shares, decisively breaking through the 4 dollar handle.

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 14.42 dollars, plus 7.37 percent on 1.1 million shares.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 77.43 dollars, plus 6.79 percent on 17.2 million shares. From the April 9 close of 48.00 dollars, Oklo is now up roughly 61 percent.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 22.12 dollars, plus 3.46 percent on 14.3 million shares.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 13.23 dollars, plus 5.42 percent on 47.6 million shares. Yahoo names SMR as the first of its “3 Powerful Nuclear Energy Stocks to Buy in May”.

• SLX AT closed at 6.15 euros, plus 5.31 percent on 510.2 thousand shares.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 12.74 dollars, plus 4.98 percent on 7.9 million shares.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 28.74 dollars, plus 4.70 percent on 2.9 million shares.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 5.99 dollars, plus 3.63 percent on 417.8 thousand shares.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 214.50 dollars, plus 3.46 percent on 1.1 million shares.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 212.01 dollars, plus 3.25 percent on 993.9 thousand shares. MarketBeat includes BWXT in its top five nuclear stocks.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 152.34 dollars, plus 3.13 percent on 5.4 million shares.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 120.34 dollars, plus 3.07 percent on 3.1 million shares.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.85 dollars, plus 2.94 percent on 26.8 million shares.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.70 dollars, plus 2.72 percent on 4.5 million shares.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 728.58 dollars, minus 0.09 percent, essentially flat.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.35 dollars, plus 1.21 percent.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 5.00 dollars, plus 0.20 percent on 10.4 million shares.

3. Equity Movers - Red Prints

Only three names finished red, and the losses were minor outside of SILXY.

• SILXY closed at 21.60 dollars, minus 3.81 percent.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 299.40 dollars, minus 1.39 percent on 6.2 million shares. CEG’s pullback from the 323 dollar high last week may reflect rotation into higher beta names that are rallying more aggressively today.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 383.00 dollars, minus 0.87 percent on 622.8 thousand shares, a negligible pullback from last week’s 407 dollar high.

The fact that the only meaningful red was in IPPs (CEG, TLN) while the rest of the complex surged confirms a rotation back into producers and SMR names after several days of IPP outperformance.

4. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Uranium at 86.20 dollars per pound on May 8, down 0.06 percent from the prior day, up 0.47 percent over the past month, and 22.70 percent year over year. Investing.com’s daily series shows a small pullback from the 87.15 April 23 peak through the low 86s, consistent with quiet spot activity: 86.55 on May 1, 86.45 on May 4 and 5, 86.25 on May 6, 86.20 on May 8.

• Long term pricing: TradeTech’s long term indicator at 93 dollars per pound (as of March 31, up 6.50 dollars since year end), driven by “historically high forecast nuclear fuel requirements”. ANS confirms the April long term at 90 dollars per pound. Cameco’s March month end long term was 91.50 dollars.

• Supply questions: ANS’s May 3 article raised pointed supply questions, noting that despite the strong price outlook, mine production remains well below global reactor requirements and that restarts at mines like Shirley Basin and Kayelekera are slow to translate into meaningful new pounds. The World Nuclear Association counts 440 operational reactors globally, 75 under construction, and 120 planned, requiring roughly 180 million pounds of U3O8 annually versus mine production of approximately 140 million pounds.

• Macro and geopolitical: Trump’s rejection of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal keeps the geopolitical risk premium intact, which supports energy broadly and nuclear specifically as the premier clean baseload alternative to fossil fuels. The S&P 500 is up 15 percent from March 30 lows, providing a supportive risk backdrop. Key events this week include inflation data, Trump’s visit to China, and the likely approval of a new Fed chairman.

5. SEQH Desk View

Today was one of the broadest and strongest sessions of the entire rally, with 25 of 28 names green and multiple names posting 8 to 15 percent gains. The move is all the more impressive because the S&P was barely positive at plus 0.21 percent, confirming that this is sector specific buying, not passive beta.

The tape is telling you several things:

1. The April consolidation is over. After peaking around April 22 to 23 and pulling back for roughly two weeks, the complex has now reversed higher with conviction. Today’s session saw producers (UEC plus 10, URG plus 8, UUUU plus 3.5, CCJ plus 3, DNN plus 3), SMR (Oklo plus 6.8, SMR plus 5.4, NNE plus 4.7, XE plus 8.9), fuel cycle (LEU plus 3.5, BWXT plus 3.3), and satellites (ASPI plus 15.8, BE plus 9.4, LTBR plus 7.4, UROY plus 7.9) all working simultaneously. That is maximum breadth.

2. ASPI is breaking out. At 6.23 dollars, ASPI has pushed through the 5.86 to 6.32 dollarzone that Cantor and Canaccord flagged as the technical breakout band. The analyst targets of 11 to 13 dollars remain well above current levels. Monitor for follow through above 6.32 to confirm.

3. Uranium holds the mid 86s. At 86.20 dollars, the commodity is grinding sideways while equities rally, which means the equity complex is re-rating higher relative to the commodity. This is typically what happens when the market starts pricing in the forward price trajectory (TE’s model: 87.50 by quarter end, 92.48 in 12 months) rather than just spot.

4. The global supply deficit is structural and worsening. ANS and WNA data confirm roughly 180 million pounds of annual reactor demand versus 140 million pounds of mine production, with planned capacity additions only widening the gap.

Positioning framework:

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

Key catalysts this week:

• Inflation data (CPI and PPI will move rate expectations and risk appetite)

• Trump China visit (potential energy and trade implications)

• New Fed chairman approval (likely this week)

• Nvidia earnings May 20 (AI capex commentary will move the entire AI power complex)

• UXK26 first notice date May 22

The sector is firing on all cylinders. Let the barbell work.

Q2 Promo - 20 Percent Off Yearly Paid Substack Membership (For Life)

SEQH Capital Research is offering 20 percent off our yearly paid Substack membership, locked in for life.

• Discount: 20 percent off the standard yearly rate

• Lock in: Your discounted rate is guaranteed for as long as your yearly subscription stays active

• What you get:

  • Full nuclear and uranium sector coverage, including daily and weekly recaps, deep dives, and tear sheets

  • Real time desk notes on positioning, catalysts, and risk management

  • Model portfolio updates, entry and exit bands, and scenario work across the uranium and nuclear stack

To claim the offer, upgrade to a yearly paid membership on our Substack checkout page. The discount will auto apply and remain in place for the life of your subscription.

CLICK LINK FOR Q2 PRMO AND FULL SUBSTACK ACCESS FOREVER

WHAT THIS NOTE SAYS

• The March 2026 terbium milestone at White Mesa proves that Energy Fuels can produce 99.9 percent purity dysprosium and terbium oxide at pilot scale, but it does not guarantee full 2027 commercial-scale heavy rare earth production.

• SEQH keeps a 2.1 billion dollar uranium core value and a 1.35 billion dollar rare earth optionality value, but raises the execution-risk haircut on the rare earth segment from 25 percent to 35 percent, moving the risk-adjusted sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) from 4.46 billion dollars to 3.79 billion dollars, or about 16.20 dollars per post-ASM share.

Pilot versus commercial scale

• White Mesa is the only operating uranium mill in the United States and the only Western facility currently producing separated heavy rare earth oxides from primary mined monazite.

• Pilot work in 2025 and early 2026 produced around 29 kilograms of 99.9 percent dysprosium oxide and the first kilogram of 99.9 percent terbium oxide; a dysprosium lot has already passed initial qualification at a South Korean automaker.

• Phase 1 commercial HREE start has slipped from end 2026 to 2027, with guidance of 35 tonnes per year dysprosium, 12 tonnes per year terbium and 850 to 1,000 tonnes per year NdPr from 10,000 tonnes per year monazite, subject to permits, financing, build-out and feedstock.

• A January 2026 feasibility study backs a 410 million dollar Phase 2 expansion targeting more than 6,000 tonnes per year NdPr, 240 tonnes per year dysprosium and 66 tonnes per year terbium, with Q1 2029 commissioning; SEQH models a 12 to 18 month slip toward mid 2030.

Chemistry, costs and remaining technical risks

• The process uses sulfuric-acid leaching followed by multi-stage solvent extraction. Academic work on Dy/Tb/Nd separation indicates that 15 to 30 mixer–settler stages are typically required to reach 99.9 percent purity and more than 95 percent recovery.

• At 10,000 tonnes per year of monazite, sulfuric acid demand reaches roughly 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes per year, with 60 to 75 percent typically recovered; at Phase 2 throughput, acid and neutralization costs become dominant in the operating-cost stack.

• SEQH estimates incremental cash costs of about 185 to 240 dollars per kilogram for dysprosium and 420 to 540 dollars per kilogram for terbium at Phase 1 commercial scale, versus current spot levels around 223 dollars per kilogram for dysprosium and about 790 to 1,140 dollars per kilogram for terbium depending on market.

• The main technical risks are keeping the heavy-element circuit separate from the NdPr circuit, managing Ra‑226 and Th‑232 waste at higher monazite throughput, and sustaining high acid-recycling efficiency so unit cash costs do not drift toward uneconomic levels.

Feedstock has become the binding constraint

• Phase 1 needs around 10,000 tonnes per year of monazite and Phase 2 requires 50,000 to 60,000 tonnes per year, but currently secure feed is largely limited to Chemours, at 2,500 tonnes per year or more from Georgia heavy mineral sands, plus a modest White Mesa stockpile.

• The Donald joint venture in Australia is the key backfill. Energy Fuels held 10.5 percent as of March 31, 2026 after contributing about 44.6 million Australian dollars of cash and stock, with an earn-in path to 49 percent. Full Phase 2 Donald output of 13,000 to 14,000 tonnes per year is not achievable before 2029.

• First deliveries from Donald are now expected in late 2027, implying that final investment decision, originally discussed for early 2026, is sliding into the second half of 2026.

• Bahia in Brazil and Vara Mada in Madagascar remain pre-FID, with multi‑year timelines and country-risk overhangs, so they are treated as option value rather than secured feed.

HREE pricing and revenue contribution

• Heavy rare earth prices have diverged from light rare earths since China tightened export controls; recent benchmarks put dysprosium oxide around 223 dollars per kilogram and terbium oxide about 790 dollars domestically with roughly 1,140 dollars per kilogram as an indicative FOB China level.

• At Phase 1 volumes of 35 tonnes per year dysprosium and 12 tonnes per year terbium, SEQH’s scenarios imply gross HREE revenue of roughly 17 to 26 million dollars per year, depending on realized prices.

• At combined Phase 1 plus Phase 2 nameplate, heavy rare earth revenue potential rises to approximately 106 to 159 million dollars per year on SEQH’s bear to bull price assumptions, before adding around 600 million dollars of NdPr revenue and roughly 14 million dollars of uranium co-product.

• SEQH emphasizes that Phase 1’s main contribution is strategic rather than numerical: it makes Energy Fuels the only verified non‑Chinese commercial producer of high-purity dysprosium and terbium oxides from mined ore, which is a precondition for premium long-term contracts.

China export controls and strategic positioning

• China imposed national-security export licensing on several heavy rare earths and related products in April 2025 and expanded the scope to more elements in October 2025, causing a sharp decline in Chinese exports of rare-earth magnets, dysprosium and terbium.

• A partial suspension of certain dual-use controls in November 2025 did not undo the structural tightening, and a persistent premium has emerged for export-grade material versus domestic China prices.

• Energy Fuels is, for now, the only Western producer of separated heavy rare earth oxides from primary ore, while peers such as MP Materials, Lynas, USA Rare Earth and REalloys are focused on light rare earths, undeveloped projects or downstream metallization.

• The planned acquisition of Australian Strategic Materials, expected to close around July 2026, adds the Dubbo project and Korean alloying capability and advances Energy Fuels toward a vertically integrated rare-earth chain from mine to magnet feedstock.

Valuation and risk matrix

• The updated SOTP holds a 2.10 billion dollar uranium core, a 1.35 billion dollar rare earth optionality block, 100 million dollars of ASM synergy, 300 million dollars of Vara Mada option value, 910 million dollars of net cash and securities, and negative 300 million dollars for corporate overhead present value.

• Applying a 35 percent haircut to rare earth optionality and a 60 percent haircut to Vara Mada results in a risk-adjusted SOTP of 3.79 billion dollars, equivalent to about 16.20 dollars per share on 234 million post‑ASM diluted shares.

• Key risks include Phase 1 schedule slipping beyond 2027, Donald FID and feedstock contracts slipping beyond H2 2026, Phase 2 capex overruns above 20 percent on 410 million dollars, weaker acid recovery that lifts unit costs, any meaningful easing of Chinese export restrictions, faster-than-expected permanent-magnet substitution, and ASM deal execution.

• The base case remains constructive: uranium operations, with first‑quarter 2026 revenue of 35.8 million dollars at about 70 dollars per pound and 2026 production guidance of 1.5 to 2.5 million pounds of U3O8, continue to underwrite the equity while rare-earth execution risk is worked through.

FULL 10-PAGE RESEARCH REPORT PDF LOCATED BELOW:

Read more

What it covers

• Physics moat: DFOS at 100 Hz with 0.26 mm spatial resolution along 30 m fibers; thermocouples fail above 600-900°C and corrupt in EMI fields, so fiber is the only viable in-core sensing modality

• NIST validation: 2018 cobalt-60 work showing oxide-coated silicon photonic devices survive 1 MGy gamma intact, plus the March 2026 NIST hydroxide catalysis bonding breakthrough that proves photonic chip packaging holds optical alignment through cryogenic, vacuum, and ionizing radiation

• SMR pass-through: PWR SMRs (NuScale, Westinghouse AP300, Holtec SMR-300, BWXT BWRX-300, Rolls-Royce SMR) constrained by tight vessel geometry and 12+ year refueling intervals; fast/molten reactors (Oklo Aurora, TerraPower Natrium, GE Hitachi PRISM) leave fiber as the only path

• Fuel rod prize: Real-time cladding swelling and temperature monitoring enables 5% burnup extension, worth >$1B/yr in fuel savings across the US PWR fleet

• 7 non-obvious angles: LUNA OTC pure-play, LITE/COHR embedded option, Cherenkov scintillator-free dosimetry, sapphire fiber inflection, Exail JV/M&A target, NRC licensing precedent compounding, fusion optionality (ITER, Commonwealth Fusion Systems)

Sidebar shows Theme Snapshot, eight Key Names with role/lever, Enabling Tech Matrix (silica FBG, sapphire FBG, EFPI, DFOS OFDR, Cherenkov fiber), Catalyst Timeline through 2028+, and Risk Radar.

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex put in a huge upside reversal today, with producers, developers, SMR names, and fuel cycle leaders all ripping higher while only a few satellites (BE, SKBL) lagged. The move came against a constructive macro backdrop, with the S&P 500 edging higher and risk appetite supported by easing fears around the Iran conflict and continued enthusiasm for AI and data center exposed names. The Trading Economics Nuclear Energy Index remains near recent highs, with uranium futures flat at 86.45 dollars per pound on May 5, up 1.53 percent over the past month and 23.15 percent year over year, and expected to rise to 87.50 by quarter end and 92.48 in 12 months according to TE’s macro models.

The American Nuclear Society’s May 3 uranium update emphasized that the end of April spot price was 86.35 dollars per pound (Cameco), up from 84.25 at the end of March, but still below the 94.28 dollar January peak. ANS highlighted that Trading Economics views 86.55 dollars as near uranium’s highest level in two months, with strong longer term demand driven by AI data centers, big tech SMR contracts, deregulation, and new reactor builds.

2. Equity Movers - Leaders

The core complex and SMR names dominated today’s tape.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 28.03 dollars, plus 23.09 percent on 7.1 million shares, the strongest move of the day.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.91 dollars, plus 15.29 percent on 10.0 million shares.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 76.93 dollars, plus 12.50 percent on 22.9 million shares. From the April 9 close of 48.00 dollars, Oklo is now up roughly 60 percent in less than a month.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 228.76 dollars, plus 11.03 percent on 1.3 million shares, its strongest day since mid April. LEU is a direct beneficiary of the US government’s push to secure domestic enrichment capacity, which has been highlighted in multiple policy documents and TradeTech commentary.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 13.13 dollars, plus 10.61 percent on 45.2 million shares. SMR continues to trade as one of the highest beta proxies on SMR policy and big tech power deals.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 6.65 dollars, plus 9.71 percent on 693.0 thousand shares.

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 14.20 dollars, plus 9.23 percent on 1.3 million shares.

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 30.92 dollars, plus 8.64 percent on 7.5 million shares. XE’s move confirms strong post IPO interest; recall the IPO raised 1.017 billion dollars at a 14 billion dollar valuation and is backed by Amazon and Ark Invest.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 5.56 dollars, plus 8.28 percent on 3.9 million shares.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 15.69 dollars, plus 8.21 percent on 11.0 million shares. UEC remains fundamentally anchored by significant liquid assets, no debt, and meaningful uranium inventory, and is highlighted as one of the “Best 5 Nuclear Energy Stocks for May 2026” with 43.14 percent projected EPS growth.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 123.17 dollars, plus 7.61 percent on 3.8 million shares. CCJ is the bellwether producer and remains central to virtually every uranium ETF.

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.86 dollars, plus 7.22 percent on 30.6 million shares. DNN continues to screen well in Zacks and DailyForex writeups thanks to 560.7 percent projected one year sales growth tied to the Phoenix ISR ramp.

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 12.92 dollars, plus 6.60 percent on 7.4 million shares. NexGen’s Q1 call this week centered on Rook I construction readiness and financing and reaffirmed its central role in the next wave of tier one projects.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 4.06 dollars, plus 6.59 percent on 3.3 million shares.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 22.42 dollars, plus 6.56 percent on 13.8 million shares. Crux Investor’s May 2026 update emphasizes that Energy Fuels heads into May with uranium growing, terbium oxide now produced domestically, and the US Russian uranium ban pushing domestic utilities toward US producers and allied suppliers.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 407.25 dollars, plus 5.81 percent on 1.2 million shares, another new high.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.94 dollars, plus 4.30 percent on 3.8 million shares.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 214.52 dollars, plus 4.06 percent on 1.0 million shares, retracing much of yesterday’s post earnings decline. BWXT still boasts a 7.3 billion dollar backlog and a 1.5 billion dollar NNSA enrichment deal, supporting the long term story.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.83 dollars, plus 3.94 percent on 8.6 million shares. URG has restarted production at Shirley Basin, adding high margin US pounds into a tightening market.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 745.05 dollars, plus 2.21 percent on 277.3 thousand shares.

• SLX AT closed at 5.80 euros, plus 1.05 percent.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 323.00 dollars, plus 0.81 percent on 3.1 million shares, near its all time high. CEG is one of the “Best 5 Nuclear Energy Stocks for May 2026” due to its dominant US nuclear fleet and AI power exposure.

3. Equity Movers - Red Prints

Only a few names closed red, and the moves were relatively modest compared to the upside.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.31 dollars, minus 5.16 percent on 225.4 thousand shares. SKBL remains highly volatile after two consecutive 20 plus percent drawdowns last week.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 283.53 dollars, minus 3.97 percent on 8.4 million shares, consolidating below the recent 295 dollar post earnings high. BE is still up massively year to date and remains the flagship “Bring Your Own Power” AI data center play.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 19.95 dollars, minus 0.94 percent on 2.8 million shares, with its typical wide intraday range of 18.44 to 21.72 dollars.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 158.91 dollars, minus 0.92 percent on 8.2 million shares.

• SILXY closed at 20.94 dollars, minus 0.58 percent.

Given how strong the rest of the complex traded, these small red prints look like idiosyncratic positioning rather than any sector wide issue.

4. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot and futures: Trading Economics shows uranium trading flat at 86.45 dollars per pound on May 5, up 1.53 percent over the past month and 23.15 percent year over year. ANS notes the end of April Cameco spot at 86.35 dollars, up from 84.25 at the end of March, but still below the 94.28 January peak. TE expects uranium to trade at 87.50 dollars by the end of this quarter and 92.48 dollars in 12 months.

• Long term pricing: ANS reports that by the end of Q1 2026, the long term contract price was 90 dollars per pound, the highest since 2008. TradeTech’s April 14 press release confirmed that its monthly Long-Term Uranium Price Indicator rose to 93.00 dollars per pound on March 31, up 6.50 dollars since December 31, 2025, on “historically high forecast nuclear fuel requirements”.

• Demand and supply commentary: ANS highlights that Trading Economics attributes current prices to a recovery in risk sentiment combined with a strong longer term outlook in nuclear power, driven by AI data centers, big tech SMR contracts, deregulation, and new reactor construction. UxC’s Uranium Market Outlook notes that overhanging inventories have been sharply reduced, with utilities focusing on long term contracting and the spot market seeing dramatic volatility since 2020 due to multiple supply and demand shocks.

• Policy and geopolitical tailwinds: Crux Investor’s Energy Fuels update underscores the impact of the US 2024 ban on Russian origin uranium, which pushes US utilities to source from domestic and allied producers, directly benefiting companies like UUUU and URG. The US is targeting a major increase in nuclear capacity over coming decades, further tightening the market.

• Utility contract coverage: The latest EIA Uranium Marketing Annual Report shows that as of end 2024, utilities had a maximum of 234 million pounds U3O8 deliveries covered for 2025 through 2034 under existing contracts, leaving significant uncovered requirements later in the decade. This under contracting is a key driver of the rising long term price.

5. SEQH Desk View

Today’s tape is exactly what you want to see if you’re long the nuclear and uranium complex:

• The commodity is flat at 86.45 dollars, still near two month highs and up over 23 percent year over year, with long term prices at 90 to 93 dollars, the highest since 2008.

• Core producers and developers ripped: CCJ plus 7.61, UEC plus 8.21, DNN plus 7.22, NXE plus 6.60, UUUU plus 6.56, UROY plus 6.59, URG plus 3.94.

• SMR and advanced nuclear soared: Oklo plus 12.50, SMR plus 10.61, LEU plus 11.03, XE plus 8.64, NNE plus 23.09, LTBR plus 9.23, NKLR plus 9.71, NUAI plus 15.29.

• BWXT rebounded 4.06 percent, confirming that the market is buying dips in core, quality names rather than dumping them.

The structural thesis remains:

1. Uranium is in a supply constrained bull market. Long term contracts at 90 to 93 dollars, end of April spot at 86.35, and TE’s forecast of 92.48 in 12 months paint a clear picture of tight fundamentals.

2. Utility under contracting is real. EIA’s 234 million pounds of covered deliveries still leave large uncovered needs out to 2034. TradeTech notes utilities rushing to lock in future requirements, driving long term price.

3. AI and SMR are no longer a narrative fringe, they are central. ANS and Trading Economics both cite AI data centers and big tech SMR contracts as key drivers of demand. BE’s Oracle megadeal and the X-Energy IPO confirm this in equity markets.

4. Policy is reinforcing the thesis. The US ban on Russian uranium, the drive to expand domestic enrichment, and multi country SMR initiatives all push demand toward the companies in this coverage universe.

Positioning framework (unchanged):

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL

Today’s action suggests that the brief consolidation and BWXT/NXE earnings jitters are behind us, and the sector is ready for the next leg higher as long as uranium holds the mid 80s and long term pricing stays near 90.

Monday, May 5, 2026

1. Market Overview

The nuclear and uranium complex opened the week with a mild rotation day: IPPs, fuel cycle, and a handful of smaller names advanced while producers, developers, and the X-Energy post-IPO trade pulled back. The broader market was positive despite escalating Iran tensions, with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both rising over 1 percent on risk appetite returning. The Trading Economics Nuclear Energy Index rose to 55.49, up 1.30 percent on the day and up 13.94 percent over the past month, confirming that the sector’s overall momentum remains intact even as individual names chop.

Uranium fell to 86.45 dollars per pound on May 4, down 0.12 percent from the prior day, up 1.53 percent over the past month, and 23.15 percent higher year over year. The American Nuclear Society published a comprehensive uranium market update on May 3, noting that the end of April spot price was 86.35 dollars per pound (per Cameco), up slightly from the 84.25 at end of March, but still below the 94.28 January peak. Trading Economics described this level as “near uranium’s highest level in two months as a recovery in broad risk sentiment was combined with signs of strong longer-term demand in nuclear power” driven by AI data centers, big tech SMR contracts, government deregulation, and new reactor construction.

2. BWXT Earnings Reaction

BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 206.52 dollars, minus 4.69 percent on 1.7 million shares. BWXT reported Q1 earnings this morning (May 4 after close or May 5 pre-market), and the stock sold off despite the company entering the report with a record backlog of 7.3 billion dollars (up 50 percent year over year), a 1.5 billion dollar NNSA agreement for domestic uranium enrichment, and Zacks projecting 14.73 percent EPS growth and 16.16 percent sales growth.

The selloff on what appeared to be a strong fundamental setup suggests either:

• A slight miss or in line result versus elevated buy side expectations

• Guidance that disappointed relative to the backlog narrative

• Profit taking after the stock had rallied from April 9 lows

BWXT remains a core holding with one of the strongest institutional quality profiles in the nuclear complex. More detail is needed on the actual numbers, but the minus 4.69 percent move on elevated volume (1.7 million shares versus recent average of 800 thousand to 1.2 million) suggests a reset of near term expectations rather than a fundamental break.

3. Uranium Spotlight Weekly Update

Uranium Spotlight’s May 5 report delivered several critical data points:

• Spot price opened last week at 86.45 dollars and closed Friday at 86.05 dollars, down 40 cents on the week

• Long term price remained at 90 dollars per pound

• Activity was extremely limited: only 4 spot transactions confirmed last week, with no trades on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday. One deal Thursday and three on Friday, including a Sprott Physical Uranium Trust purchase

• April as a whole saw 44 uranium transactions totaling about 4 million pounds U3O8

• Ur Energy restarted Shirley Basin, Lotus is ramping Kayelekera, and Boss Energy’s results show why supply growth remains fragile

The thin weekly activity (4 transactions versus 17 the prior week) combined with only a 40 cent decline tells you the market has very little selling pressure even in the absence of active buying. This is the kind of environment where a single utility RFP or financial buyer entering can push prices sharply higher.

4. Equity Movers - Leaders

• Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 12.70 dollars, plus 2.42 percent on 716.3 thousand shares.

• Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 295.00 dollars, plus 2.20 percent on 7.4 million shares, continuing to build above 290 post-earnings.

• Talen (TLN) closed at 393.00 dollars, plus 2.17 percent on 613.3 thousand shares, marking another new high for the rally leg. TLN is now up roughly 25 percent from the April 9 close.

• NuClear (NKLR) closed at 6.22 dollars, plus 1.80 percent on 311.0 thousand shares.

• NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.22 dollars, plus 1.69 percent on 5.1 million shares.

• Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 728.94 dollars, plus 1.41 percent on 249.3 thousand shares.

• SLX AT closed at 5.74 euros, plus 1.23 percent.

• Centrus (LEU) closed at 209.00 dollars, plus 1.01 percent on 912.8 thousand shares, holding above 200.

• Vistra (VST) closed at 161.49 dollars, plus 0.40 percent on 3.6 million shares.

• Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.57 dollars, plus 0.28 percent.

5. Equity Movers - Red Prints

• X-Energy (XE) closed at 28.17 dollars, minus 5.34 percent on 5.4 million shares. XE continues its post-IPO price discovery process, now roughly 22 percent below its first day spike of 35.98 dollars. The 14 billion dollar valuation remains significant as a comp for the broader SMR space.

• BWX Technologies (BWXT) at 206.52 dollars, minus 4.69 percent (discussed in Section 2).

• Denison (DNN) closed at 3.61 dollars, minus 4.02 percent on 27.1 million shares. NexGen (NXE) reported Q1 2026 earnings after the close today, with a conference call focused on Rook I progress and the uranium market outlook. DNN and NXE’s weakness today may reflect positioning ahead of NXE’s report.

• NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 11.78 dollars, minus 3.28 percent on 18.4 million shares.

• Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 22.60 dollars, minus 3.09 percent on 1.7 million shares.

• Cameco (CCJ) closed at 115.40 dollars, minus 2.42 percent on 5.4 million shares.

• Uranium Energy (UEC) closed at 14.46 dollars, minus 2.41 percent on 7.7 million shares .

• NexGen (NXE) closed at 12.17 dollars, minus 2.33 percent on 6.1 million shares, with a very wide intraday range of 12.01 to 13.17 dollars suggesting heavy positioning ahead of tonight’s earnings.

• Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 21.12 dollars, minus 2.31 percent on 8.4 million shares.

• ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 5.07 dollars, minus 1.74 percent on 2.5 million shares.

• Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.75 dollars, minus 1.11 percent on 4.8 million shares.

• Oklo (OKLO) closed at 67.85 dollars, minus 1.09 percent on 8.2 million shares.

• SILXY at 21.06 dollars, minus 0.96 percent.

• Constellation (CEG) closed at 320.51 dollars, minus 0.17 percent on 1.9 million shares, holding near the 320 dollar level.

• enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.86 dollars, minus 0.13 percent.

• Mirion (MIR) closed at 20.14 dollars, minus 0.10 percent, essentially flat.

• Uranium Royalty (UROY) at 3.81 dollars, flat.

6. Uranium Market Backdrop

• Spot: Trading Economics shows 86.45 dollars per pound on May 4, down 0.12 percentfrom the prior day, up 1.53 percent over the past month, and 23.15 percent year over year. Uranium Spotlight confirms the weekly close at 86.05 dollars, down 40 cents on only 4 transactions. ANS reports the end of April Cameco spot at 86.35 dollars.

• Long term: Unchanged at 90 dollars per pound per Uranium Spotlight. TradeTech’s April 14 press release confirmed the monthly Long-Term Price Indicator rose to 93.00 dollars per pound on March 31, up 6.50 dollars since December 31, 2025, and up 3.00 dollars from the prior month, driven by historically high forecast nuclear fuel requirements. This is the highest long term indicator since 2008.

• April activity: The full month of April saw 44 uranium transactions totaling about 4 million pounds U3O8. For context, a typical active month might see 6 to 8 million pounds transacted, so April was moderately active, consistent with a balanced market.

• Supply side developments: Uranium Spotlight highlighted that Ur Energy restarted Shirley Basin, Lotus is ramping Kayelekera, and Boss Energy’s results show why supply growth remains fragile. This is a critical insight: even as mines restart, the actual ramp to meaningful production takes years, and execution risk keeps supply growth structurally below demand growth.

• Justin Huhn forecast: Uranium Insider founder Justin Huhn told Investing News Network that he “sees prices rising from 86 dollars at end of 2025 to potentially 100 dollars per pound”. Sprott’s February report confirmed that uranium surged above 100 dollars per pound in January 2026 before pulling back, and emphasized that US Section 232 measures and long term nuclear capacity targets strengthen uranium’s strategic status.

• VanEck NLR ETF: Historical prices show the ETF at 143.86 on May 4, up from 138.97 on April 30 and 144.60 on May 1. The ETF is holding near its recent highs, confirming that institutional flow remains supportive.

7. SEQH Desk View

Today was a mixed, low conviction session with the Nuclear Energy Index still up 1.30 percentand 13.94 percent over the past month. The broader market was risk on (S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both plus 1 percent), so the nuclear complex’s mild underperformance today is likely driven by BWXT earnings disappointment and positioning ahead of the NexGen report tonight.

The key takeaways entering this week:

1. Uranium’s structural story is only strengthening. TradeTech’s long term indicator at 93 dollars per pound (up 6.50 since year end) on historically high forecast nuclear fuel requirements is the most important data point for the thesis. The spot at 86.05 to 86.45 is holding firm on minimal selling pressure (4 transactions last week) despite no active utility buying.

2. Supply growth remains fragile. Ur Energy restarting Shirley Basin, Lotus ramping Kayelekera, Boss Energy showing execution challenges: this is exactly the pattern that keeps supply below demand for years, forcing utilities to contract at ever higher prices.

3. The X-Energy IPO sets a valuation floor. At 14 billion dollars, XE validates the SMR thesis and provides institutional price discovery for Oklo, SMR, and NNE. XE’s current pullback to 28.17 dollars is normal post-IPO volatility.

4. Watch NexGen tonight. NXE’s Q1 conference call will spotlight Rook I progress, which is critical for the developer tier of the coverage universe (NXE, DNN, UUUU).

Positioning framework:

• Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE

• Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE

Upcoming catalysts:

• NexGen Q1 earnings and Rook I update (tonight after close)

• World Nuclear Supply Chain 2026 conference May 20-21

• WNFM 52nd Annual Meeting May 31 to June 2

• Weekly uranium spot indicator (next Monday)

• Triton Uranium considering a US SPAC listing, adding another potential SMR/uranium equity to the coverage universe

The sector continues to consolidate the extraordinary April rally while the commodity holds firm and the term market signals persistent utility demand at record prices. Let the thesis compound.

Q2 Promo - 20 Percent Off Yearly Paid Substack Membership (For Life)

SEQH Capital Research is offering 20 percent off our yearly paid Substack membership, locked in for life.

• Discount: 20 percent off the standard yearly rate

• Lock in: Your discounted rate is guaranteed for as long as your yearly subscription stays active

• What you get:

  • Full nuclear and uranium sector coverage, including daily and weekly recaps, deep dives, and tear sheets

  • Real time desk notes on positioning, catalysts, and risk management

  • Model portfolio updates, entry and exit bands, and scenario work across the uranium and nuclear stack

CLICK LINK TO ACCESS Q2 PROMO, FULL SUBSTACK ACCESS