Abbvie Full Valuation
SEQH Capital Partners Research
Ticker: ABBV | Date: 8 Oct 2025 | Close: US $231.50 | Rating: BUY
Price Targets: US$265 (DCF) | US$270 (NAV) | US$275 (SOTP) | Down-side US$200 (Humira cliff > 35%) | Blue-sky US$290 (pipeline acceleration)
1. Post-Q2-25 Inflection Snapshot
YTD return: +18% vs S&P +14%; trades at 13.5× 2026E EPS vs big-pharma median 15.2× – discount persists despite 50%+ operating margin.
Q2-25 revenue: US$15.1 B (+9.3% YoY) – fourth consecutive quarter of >9% growth; adj-EBITDA margin 53.4% (highest in cohort).
2. Revenue & Profitability Deep Dive (TTM US$B)
3. Multi-Method Valuation Cluster
A. DCF (7.5% WACC; 2% terminal g; USD)
Base-case assumptions:
Revenue CAGR 2025-30: 6% (immuno duo 11%, aesthetics 8%, neuroscience 5%).
Humira erosion –18% pa → <US$3 B by 2030 (5% of sales).
Operating margin: 50% (2026) → 48% (2030) – R&D stays 14% of sales.
Net capex: 4% of revenue; working-cap 2%
B. NAV (sum-of-parts DCF of products + pipeline)
Stock = 0.88× NAV → 12% discount to sum-of-parts despite best-in-class margin.
C. Peer Multiple Regression
