ASPI, Molybdenum-100, Where is it?

Dec 16, 2025

∙ Paid

ASP Isotopes (ASPI) – Mo-100 “Where Is It?”
SEQH Capital Research | December 15, 2025

Executive Summary

ASPI’s 25-year, up to $675 million Molybdenum-100 (Mo-100) contract with BRICEM is real, legally documented, and strategically important, but three years after signing it has generated zero revenue and remains unexecuted.
The gap between promise and performance stems from a combination of Chinese regulatory barriers, contractor failure at the South African plant, and a quiet strategic deprioritization of Mo-100 in favor of nearer-term isotopes like Silicon-28.
The Mo-100 contract should now be viewed as a long-dated, high-risk call option: structurally valuable but significantly impaired by execution risk, timing uncertainty, and management credibility questions.

The BRICEM Mo-100 agreement (Form 8-K, November 29, 2022) is a binding 25-year supply contract, specifying up to $27 million per year and up to $675 million total, with initial deliveries originally scheduled for July 2023.
ASPI committed capital to a dedicated >20 kg/year Mo-100 enrichment facility in South Africa and has carried Mo-100-related deferred revenue on the balance sheet, confirming a second binding Mo-100 agreement with a U.S. customer and reinforcing that this is not a “phantom” contract.
The commercial logic is grounded in the fragility of the global Mo-99/Tc-99m supply chain and a growing Chinese market for medical imaging, positioning Mo-100 as a strategically rational long-term supply solution.

Chinese regulatory approval is the primary bottleneck: only Canada has approved Tc-99m production via cyclotron using Mo-100, and China has not yet approved this pathway, rendering BRICEM unable to legally deploy ASPI’s Mo-100 for its intended medical use.
Klydon, the original contractor for the South African Mo-100 facility, failed to complete the plant by the end of 2022, forcing ASPI to recognize over $6 million in damages and to assume direct control of the assets, pushing delivery timelines back at least 12–18 months.
Management has effectively deprioritized Mo-100, as evidenced by its absence from recent operational updates (e.g., July 17, 2025 release highlighted Si-28, Yb-176, and C-14 but omitted Mo-100) and by the lack of detailed public explanation for the multi-year slippage.

Regulatory precedent exists: Health Canada’s approval of Mo-100-based Tc-99m production demonstrates technical and clinical validity, suggesting that Chinese approval is a question of “when” rather than “if,” albeit on an uncertain timeline.
The South African enrichment facility is now under ASPI’s direct ownership and already proven via Silicon-28 production, making it a de-risked infrastructure asset that can produce Mo-100 once commercial and regulatory conditions align.
The BRICEM contract serves as a strategic foothold in an estimated multi-billion-dollar global medical isotope market, with a 25-year term and demonstrated follow-on demand (e.g., the U.S. Mo-100 contract with upfront payment) underscoring long-term optionality.

Bear view: Mo-100 is a structurally impaired asset, with possible permanent regulatory impasse in China, damaged management credibility, and significant opportunity cost from capital and attention tied up in a stalled project.
Bull view: The “coiled spring” remains intact, regulatory approval is ultimately likely, the plant is technically ready, and the Mo-99 supply chain remains fragile, implying that any breakthrough on Chinese approval or commercial activation could unlock a step-change in ASPI’s revenue and valuation.
Base case: Investors should treat the BRICEM Mo-100 contract as a long-duration, out-of-the-money call option embedded in ASPI equity, non-zero value, but highly uncertain timing and heavily discounted by execution risk.

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