ASPI Timeline Analysis Model
SEQH Capital Research | November 5, 2026
Summary
Our model gives ASP Isotopes (NASDAQ: ASPI) a 52% probability of delivering none of its five remaining 2H26-guided milestones by December 31, 2026, and a 1-5% probability of delivering three or more. Expected deliveries: 0.6 of 5. The market is now pricing that record, not the guidance: shares closed at $1.91 on November 4 (-64.3% YTD, -79.6% off the $9.38 52-week high) and traded near $1.70 this morning.
The core finding is a split track record. Across 15 closed guidance windows we could date from filings and releases, ASPI hit 4 and missed 11 (26.7%). Every hit was a process step: samples shipped, a confidential S-1 submitted, drilling finished early. Every one of the 11 revenue-bearing or structural windows was missed. On a Jeffreys prior that is a 4.2% posterior hit rate (90% interval 0.0-15.7%) for the next unconditioned date ASPI puts on a commercial milestone.
The slips are regular enough to model. The median revision pushes a target out 5.9 months, almost always by exactly one or two quarters. Measured against the original guided horizon, delivery times are running at least 1.67x (median) to 1.87x (geometric mean) what management first said, and Si-28 is at 3.67x and counting.
What changed in the last 30 days is real:
