Bitcoin Related Watchlist Round-Up

SEQH Capital Partners Research
U.S. Bitcoin Ecosystem Watchlist Round-up
19 Oct 2025
(Prices ,volume=3−sessionavg;β=30−dayvs.BTCUSD;hashprice=/PH/s/day)

1. MSTR – the leveraged BTC treasury stock
   +2.5 % Friday, +11 % vs. BTC spot (-1.5 %) as the company filed an automatic shelf 14-Oct enabling up to $2 b equity-for-BTC raises “at-the-market.” Holdings now 252 220 BTC (≈$15.9 bn) vs. market-cap $46 bn; EV/BTC discount narrowed to 1.05× (3-yr mean 1.25×). Implied leverage: every 10 % move in BTC = 18 % move in MSTR.
   Catalyst: Q3 earnings 5-Nov – street expects another convert issue; if accretive NAV, discount closes to 0.95× = $310 target.

2. COIN – regulated fiat on-ramp monopoly
   +2.0 % Friday on 9.6 M sh (1.2× avg) after Bloomberg reported SEC staff recommended closing ETH-staking probe without enforcement; market reads as lower probability of similar action vs. Coinbase Earn. Q3 consensus 4-Nov: trans. rev. $650 m (flat q/q), subscription & services $605 m (guided $530-630 m). Our tracker shows retail take-rate compressed to 1.55 % (vs. 1.75 % Q2) – partially offset by 9 % higher BTC vol MoM.
   Quant: 30-day β to BTC now 1.9 (vs. 2.4 in Aug) – lower leverage but still high optionality.

3. IBIT – BlackRock spot-BTC ETF
   –1.6 % Friday in-line with BTC; but net-flow inflection: +$1.3 bn inflow last week (largest since May) vs. GBTC outflow –$320 m. IBIT AUM now $29 bn, passing GBTC ($24 bn) for first time. Flow-based signal: 3-day rolling beta of next-day BTC price = 0.42 (top-decile) – ETF creation/redemption now driving spot.
   Watch: Oct-open interest on CME BTC futures hit record 25 k contracts – basis >15 % annualized; authorized participants arbitraging vs. IBIT create synthetic cash-and-carry >12 % – keeps bid under ETF.

4. BITF – vertically-integrated Canadian miner
   +1.1 % Friday, best performer among hashers, after releasing Oct ops update: hash-rate 15.1 EH/s (+8 % m/m) and fleet efficiency 22 J/TH (best in peer group). September BTC mined 315 (vs. 261 Aug) – beat visible supply by 12 %. Cash cost $41 k/BTC at 5 ¢/kWh Pennsylvania hydro. Net-debt zero; liquidity $210 m.
   Sensitivity: at $67 k BTC and current diff, monthly FCF ≈$18 m – runway to 30 EH/s by Q2-26 without equity. Street 2025 EPS $1.20 vs. $0.85 – 12× P/E looks inexpensive vs. 20× group.

5. CLSK – zero-carbon U.S. fleet operator
   –0.7 % Friday; hash-rate 21 EH/s post-Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) hook-up. However, Oct diff adjustment +9.4 % blunts revenue; our hashprice model dropped to $54/PH/s/day (from $59). Energy hedge: 20 % of 2026 output pre-sold via fixed-price PPAs at 3.8 ¢/kWh – gives $47 k effective BTC cost, still cash-break-even at $55 k coin.
   Risk: SEC comment letter on Q2 revenue-recognition for AI-HPC hosting – response due 1-Nov; any restatement would hit sentiment.

6. MARA – largest public hash-rate (28 EH/s)
   –2.7 % Friday, underperforming BTC by 1.2 pp. Company guided 50 EH/s by year-end – implies another 600 MW rack deployment; our channel checks show transformer delivery delays at Garden City, TX – 2 EH/s at risk. September BTC mined 702 (flat m/m) – below 750 co-guide. Treasury policy: still 100 % BTC retention; liquidity $1.1 b (convert + ATM) – enough to fund 2026 capex even at $50 k BTC.
   Quant: 30-day β 2.8 – highest in large-cap miners; options skew 25 Δ put-call = 12 % (rich) – Street hedging downside.

7. CIFR – low-cost West-Texas ERCOT hasher
   +3.0 % Friday, +18 % since 30-Sep after signing 100 MW AI/HPC colo LOI with “large cloud provider” (ticker under NDA). Deal priced at $0.055/kWh + $6 M annual lease – equiv. to $340/PH/s/day, 6× current hashprice. Stock rerated to 4.2× 2025e EV/EBITDA (vs. 2.8× peer).
   Key metric: only 16 % of power exposed to spot ERCOT – shields from Q4 price spikes; break-even BTC $42 k.