Daily Nuclear & Uranium Market Recap
5/13/26
Daily Nuclear & Uranium Market Recap
Wednesday, May 13, 2026
1. Market Overview
The nuclear and uranium complex was split decisively today, with IPPs and nuclear utilities getting hammered while producers, SMR names, and BE held up or rallied. The session was defined by two major events: Constellation Energy (CEG) earnings disappointment and Talen Energy (TLN) reporting Q1 results this morning, both of which triggered sharp selloffs in the IPP bucket while the rest of the complex traded independently.
CEG’s ongoing struggles have been well documented: the stock has now fallen roughly 33 percent from its 52 week high of 412.70 dollars reached in October 2025. TIKR’s analysis notes that CEG is down roughly 22 percent from highs even after the Calpine acquisition fundamentally repriced the business, adding EBITDA that surged from 0.84 billion in Q4 2025 to a consensus 2.02 billion in Q1 2026, a 189 percent year over year increase. But without new data center contracts announced, the re-rating catalyst remains delayed. Today’s likely earnings report appears to have further disappointed, driving CEG down 6.18 percent and dragging TLN (minus 6.04) and VST (minus 2.73) with it.
TLN reported Q1 2026 results on May 5 showing GAAP net income of 63 million dollars, Adjusted EBITDA of 473 million dollars, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of 350 million dollars, with 2026 guidance reaffirmed at Adjusted EBITDA of 1,750 to 2,050 million dollars and Adjusted FCF of 980 to 1,180 million dollars. TLN also raised 4 billion dollars in new senior unsecured notes in April (1.5 billion at 6.125 percent due 2031 and 2.5 billion at 6.375 percent due 2033), which signals confidence but also adds leverage. Today’s minus 6.04 percent drop on TLN may reflect the heavy debt load and sympathy selling with CEG.
2. Equity Movers - Leaders
Despite the IPP carnage, a healthy number of names posted gains.
ASP Isotopes (ASPI) closed at 6.39 dollars, plus 6.95 percent on 6.3 million shares. ASPI has now confirmed the breakout above the 5.86 to 6.32 dollar technical zone, holding above it for a second consecutive session. Cantor’s 11 dollar and Canaccord’s 13 dollarprice targets still imply 72 to 103 percent upside from current levels . ASPI is up roughly 51 percent from the April 9 close of 4.23 dollars.
Bloom Energy (BE) closed at 291.78 dollars, plus 3.95 percent on 9.1 million shares, continuing to trade as a decoupled AI data center power play.
Curtiss Wright (CW) closed at 751.00 dollars, plus 2.13 percent on 301.0 thousand shares.
Nano Nuclear (NNE) closed at 27.50 dollars, plus 1.51 percent on 1.7 million shares.
NuScale Power (SMR) closed at 12.10 dollars, plus 0.81 percent on 28.4 million shares.
BWX Technologies (BWXT) closed at 208.00 dollars, plus 0.57 percent on 1.0 million shares.
Skyline Builders (SKBL) closed at 3.52 dollars, plus 0.57 percent.
NuScale AI (NUAI) closed at 4.94 dollars, plus 0.41 percent on 8.5 million shares.
NexGen (NXE) closed at 12.33 dollars, plus 0.07 percent, essentially flat.
3. Equity Movers - Red Prints
The red side was dominated by IPPs and producers.
Constellation (CEG) closed at 275.45 dollars, minus 6.18 percent on 6.6 million shares. Barron’s previously noted that CEG “whiffed” on its investor day in March by failing to announce any new data center power deals. TIKR’s analysis frames CEG at roughly 275 dollars as trading well below a 541 dollar DCF target, but warns the re-rating catalyst (new data center contracts) has not materialized.
Talen (TLN) closed at 352.00 dollars, minus 6.04 percent on 1.5 million shares, despite having reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA guidance of 1,750 to 2,050 million dollars. MarketBeat confirms TLN closed at 351.03 dollars, down 6.29 percent.
Oklo (OKLO) closed at 69.86 dollars, minus 5.12 percent on 14.2 million shares.
Lightbridge (LTBR) closed at 12.99 dollars, minus 3.20 percent.
enCore Energy (EU) closed at 1.60 dollars, minus 3.06 percent on 3.6 million shares.
Denison (DNN) closed at 3.59 dollars, minus 2.97 percent on 24.7 million shares.
SILXY closed at 21.48 dollars, minus 3.92 percent.
Energy Fuels (UUUU) closed at 20.34 dollars, minus 2.92 percent on 6.9 million shares.
X-Energy (XE) closed at 30.84 dollars, minus 2.84 percent on 4.7 million shares.
Vistra (VST) closed at 142.86 dollars, minus 2.73 percent on 6.4 million shares. VST has now pulled back from 166.76 on April 27 to 142.86 today, a decline of roughly 14 percentin just over two weeks.
Ur Energy (URG) closed at 1.89 dollars, minus 2.54 percent on 10.4 million shares, giving back some of yesterday’s 7.67 percent gain.
Centrus (LEU) closed at 193.80 dollars, minus 4.22 percent on 721.1 thousand shares.
Uranium Royalty (UROY) closed at 4.12 dollars, minus 1.93 percent on 2.1 million shares.
NuClear (NKLR) closed at 5.87 dollars, minus 1.68 percent.
SLX AT closed at 5.86 euros, minus 1.68 percent.
Mirion (MIR) closed at 18.65 dollars, minus 1.64 percent on 3.6 million shares, with the typical wide intraday range of 16.78 to 19.28 dollars.
Cameco (CCJ) closed at 115.81 dollars, minus 0.96 percent on 3.4 million shares. Bank of America’s 125 dollar price target and forecast of uranium to 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026 continue to frame CCJ as the firm’s preferred nuclear name.
UEC closed at 15.45 dollars, minus 0.32 percent, essentially flat.
4. Uranium Market Backdrop
Spot: Uranium remains flat at 86.20 dollars per pound on May 11. CarbonCredits describes the market as in “tight equilibrium” with flat daily activity balanced by structural bullishness from Kazatomprom constraints, Russian sanctions, and tech driven SMR demand.
Long term: TradeTech at 93 dollars per pound (March 31), Cameco at 91.50 dollars(March), Uranium Spotlight’s April at 90 dollars. All in the 90 to 93 dollar band.
BofA forecast: Bank of America’s Michael Widmer expects uranium to climb to 130 dollars per pound by Q4 2026, followed by 135 in 2027, implying over 50 percent upside from current levels. This would match highs last seen in 2008. BofA’s preferred equity pick is Cameco with a 125 dollar price target.
Supply deficit: Seeking Alpha’s December 2025 analysis estimated that mine supply would be down and reactor demand up for 2026, producing an outright deficit in the global uranium market. With roughly 180 million pounds of annual demand versus 140 million pounds of mine production, the structural gap continues to widen.
5. SEQH Desk View
Today was an IPP driven selloff that does not reflect the broader nuclear thesis. CEG’s minus 6.18 and TLN’s minus 6.04 dragged sentiment, but the underlying causes are company specific:
CEG is struggling with a delayed data center re-rating catalyst and 2026 guidance that missed expectations. At 275.45 dollars, the stock is now 33 percent below its October 2025 high of 412.70 and trading at a significant discount to TIKR’s 541 dollar DCF target. The Calpine acquisition is adding massive EBITDA (consensus 189 percent year over year growth in Q1), but the market wants new data center power deals before re-rating higher.
TLN reaffirmed solid guidance (EBITDA 1,750 to 2,050 million, FCF 980 to 1,180 million) but the 4 billion dollars in new debt and sympathy selling with CEG weighed on the stock.
Meanwhile, the rest of the complex was constructive:
ASPI confirmed its breakout above 6.32 dollars with a 6.95 percent gain
BE continued its run at 291.78, plus 3.95 percent
SMR names (NNE, SMR, NUAI) posted small gains or held flat
Uranium holds the mid 86s with BofA projecting 130 dollars per pound by year end
The key question for the IPP bucket is whether CEG’s failure to announce new data center contracts represents a temporary delay or a structural issue. Given the massive demand from AI data centers (confirmed by BE’s Oracle deal, the US-Japan SMR initiative, and every major tech company’s nuclear procurement efforts), the most likely scenario is that CEG’s data center deals are a matter of when, not if, and the current discount to DCF value is an opportunity.
Positioning framework (unchanged):
Core: CCJ, UEC, LEU, DNN, UUUU, UROY, BWXT, CEG, VST, TLN, MIR, CW, NXE
Satellites: SMR, Oklo, BE, NNE, ASPI, NUAI, NKLR, EU, SILXY, URG, LTBR, XE, SKBL
Q2 Promo - 20 Percent Off Yearly Paid Substack Membership (For Life)
SEQH Capital Research is offering 20 percent off our yearly paid Substack membership, locked in for life.
Discount: 20 percent off the standard yearly rate
Lock in: Your discounted rate is guaranteed for as long as your yearly subscription stays active
What you get:
Full nuclear and uranium sector coverage, including daily and weekly recaps, deep dives, and tear sheets
Real time desk notes on positioning, catalysts, and risk management
Model portfolio updates, entry and exit bands, and scenario work across the uranium and nuclear stack
To claim the offer, upgrade to a yearly paid membership on our Substack checkout page. The discount will auto apply and remain in place for the life of your subscription.