Daily Nuclear & Uranium Market Recap
1/12/26
SEQH CAPITAL RESEARCH
Daily Nuclear & Uranium Market Recap
Monday, January 12, 2026
Macro & Uranium Pricing
Uranium futures last traded at $82.75/lb on January 9, up 0.98% on the day, putting prices at a two‑month high and up 7.40% over the past month and 12.51% year‑on‑year as of the January 12 data update.
Barchart’s Jan ’26 contract shows a 1‑month performance of +8.04%, with the contract moving from a 1‑month low near $77.05 in December to a high of $82.65–82.75 by January 9, reinforcing the steady, grinding bull trend.
TradeTech’s December 31 Exchange Value at $81.70/lb marked an >11% MoM increase from November’s $75.75 and a +$17.70 move off the 2025 low of $64, with demand driven by U.S. reactor restarts, uprates, and hyperscaler–utility PPAs.
Policy & State-Level Developments
1) New York - Hochul Accelerates State Nuclear Ambitions
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has ratcheted up the state’s nuclear ambitions, aiming for New York to “lead the U.S. in building new reactors” according to a January 12 coverage of her plan.
The strategy is framed in the context of decarbonization and reliability: New York is looking at new nuclear, uprates, and potentially advanced reactors/SMRs to complement renewables and manage grid stability as fossil capacity retires.
2) Where U.S. States Stand on Nuclear (ANS Survey)
ANS’s “Where states stand on nuclear” analysis, updated January 11, underscores that 2026 is shaping up as another pivotal year with state-level policy turning meaningfully more pro‑nuclear.
Key points from the survey:
Multiple states (including Alaska, Indiana, Kentucky, Montana, West Virginia, and Wisconsin) have recently repealed moratoria or passed new laws explicitly enabling advanced reactors.
Several others are actively studying SMR/advanced reactor deployment at coal‑to‑nuclear repower sites, setting the stage for offtake opportunities and site re‑use.
Fuel-Cycle & HALEU - Key Operational Milestone
3) Standard Nuclear Receives HALEU at Oak Ridge
Standard Nuclear announced that it has received a shipment of High‑Assay Low‑Enriched Uranium (HALEU) feedstock at its Oak Ridge, Tennessee facility, becoming the first company to both obtain DOE authorization and physically receive HALEU to manufacture TRISO fuel.
The HALEU shipment, managed from Lynchburg, VA under National Nuclear Security Administration oversight, is sufficient to produce a full core load for the first reactor startup by Radiant, an advanced microreactor developer planning to build a facility in Oak Ridge.
Standard Nuclear describes itself as “reactor‑agnostic”, positioning TRISO production to serve multiple next‑gen designs, which makes this milestone important beyond a single project and directly tied to DOE’s broader HALEU strategy.
4) Fuel-Supply Chain Focus
A new Power Magazine feature stresses that “America’s nuclear future depends on its fuel supply chain”, arguing that deploying advanced reactors isn’t sufficient without integrated mining, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication capacity.
The article explicitly connects:
DOE’s $900M awards to American Centrifuge Operating, General Matter, and Orano Federal Services for enrichment.
The need for parallel investments in conversion and advanced fuel forms (e.g., TRISO) to support SMRs and advanced reactors.
Enrichment & Utility Context
5) Orano’s U.S. Enrichment Project (IKE) - AI/Data-Center Demand
Orano reiterated that DOE has selected it for $900M of funding to build an enriched uranium production facility at Oak Ridge, with total project cost estimated near $5B.
The IKE project is explicitly framed as a response to:
The impending 2028 ban on Russian uranium imports into the U.S. (with limited waivers).
Growing electricity needs from AI and data centers, which Orano cites as a key driver for U.S. utilities seeking stable, low‑carbon baseload.
Orano plans to finalize the DOE contract and file an NRC license application in 1H 2026, aligning with the sector’s broader effort to firm up fuel‑cycle capacity ahead of the late‑decade SMR/advanced reactor wave.
Market Structure & ETF Positioning
6) Uranium & Nuclear ETFs - Performance Context
ETF comparison data (updated with January 9, 2026 numbers) show:
NLR (VanEck Uranium & Nuclear Energy ETF) price $143.07, +1.70% on the day, with 5‑year return ~27.76% and 10‑year ~14.46%, reflecting a more balanced, lower‑volatility nuclear exposure.
URA and URNM continue to exhibit higher beta to uranium miners and physical, with URA’s 1‑year return at 56.70% and URNM’s at 13.52%, while NUKZ has a 1‑year return over 60% on more concentrated nuclear names.
NLR’s holdings as of January 9, 2026 show Oklo (OKLO) at 5.81%, BWX Technologies at 5.71%, Denison Mines (DNN) at 5.09%, and Centrus (LEU) also among the top positions, making DOE enrichment policy and SMR/advanced reactor stories directly relevant to ETF flows.
7) Spot & Long-Term Price Structure
TradeTech’s December spot commentary, still the latest full month snapshot referenced today, notes utilities locked in almost 5M lb U₃O₈ in October across multiple delivery windows, with price terms reflecting a strong outlook for demand and utilities’ desire to lock in future needs early.
Cameco’s late‑2025 data put long‑term price at ~$86/lb, the highest of 2025, highlighting a persistent term premium to spot as reactors and utilities prioritize security of supply.
Strategic Takeaways - January 12, 2026
Fuel moves from narrative to execution: Standard Nuclear physically receiving HALEU and preparing to fabricate TRISO fuel for Radiant’s microreactor marks a concrete step in moving advanced fuel supply from PowerPoint to reality, aligning with DOE’s HALEU priorities and advanced reactor roadmaps.
State-level policy is reinforcing the federal push: New York’s ambition to “lead in building new reactors” and ANS’s map of pro‑nuclear legislative shifts show U.S. nuclear policy is now being reinforced at the state level, not just in D.C.
Uranium price action remains structurally bullish, not manic: The move to $82.75/lb with ~7–8% 1‑month and ~12–13% 1‑year gains, combined with TradeTech’s December price jump and ongoing contracting, points to sustained tightness and disciplined supply, not a blow‑off top.
ETF flows favor diversified nuclear exposure: Performance and holdings data for NLR vs. URA/URNM suggest more sophisticated capital is gravitating toward balanced nuclear + uranium baskets (NLR) that integrate miners, fuel, and operators, while high‑beta uranium‑only vehicles remain in demand for pure commodity leverage.
Net of today’s information, the nuclear/uranium complex continues to be driven by simultaneous fuel‑supply execution (HALEU/TRISO), state and federal policy alignment, and still‑tight uranium fundamentals, with uranium holding at multi‑month highs and nuclear‑linked ETFs maintaining strong multi‑year performance profiles.