Deep Fission, Inc Discovery Report
12/19/25
Deep Fission – Investment Tear Sheet (SEQH Capital Research)
Snapshot
Company: Deep Fission (Gravity Nuclear Reactor developer)
Stage: Early commercial, post-PIPE go‑public (public reporting; not yet quoted)
Estimated Post‑Money Valuation: ~$300M (>$30M PIPE at ~10% dilution)
HQ / Incorporation: Delaware; founded 2023 by Dr. Richard Muller and Elizabeth Muller
Rating (SEQH): BUY; long‑term 5–10 year horizon
Theme: Advanced nuclear for AI‑era baseload power via mile‑deep underground SMRs
Investment Thesis
Deep Fission’s Gravity Nuclear Reactor places a small modular pressurized water reactor one mile underground, using natural geology and hydrostatic pressure as containment and cooling.
The design targets levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of $50–70/MWh, implying a 70–80% cost reduction versus conventional nuclear (e.g., Plant Vogtle at $186/MWh).
Deployment is targeted at ~6 months from ground‑breaking to operation, versus 3–4 years for next‑gen SMRs and 6–10 years for traditional nuclear.
SEQH views Deep Fission as a leveraged play on AI‑driven data center power demand and industrial decarbonization, with significant upside if the technology is validated at scale.
Technology & Economics
Core Technology:
Gravity Nuclear Reactor integrates three proven technologies: pressurized water reactors, deep borehole drilling, and geothermal energy systems in a single vertical underground configuration.
Uses standard low‑enriched uranium (LEU) fuel (~5% enrichment), avoiding current constraints around HALEU.
Key Technical Advantages:
Passive safety via natural hydrostatic pressure (~160 atm) and gravity‑driven emergency cooling, eliminating engineered emergency core cooling systems.
Geological “ultimate containment” eliminates large surface containment buildings and reactor pressure vessels.
Deep underground siting provides seismic isolation and a very small surface footprint.
Economics:
Estimated overnight cost: $2.5–3.5M/MW versus $8–9M/MW for modular SMRs and ~$15M/MW for large conventional nuclear.
Target LCOE: $50–70/MWh; expected contracted prices: $80–130/MWh, implying attractive gross margins and path to project‑level profitability from first commercial units.
Market, Pipeline & Business Model
Macro Tailwinds:
Global data center power demand expected to rise ~165% by 2030, adding ~700 TWh and requiring ~80 GW of new capacity, with nuclear increasingly favored by hyperscalers.
SMR market projected to grow from ~$159M in 2024 to >$5B by 2035 (CAGR >40%), with even larger long‑term estimates up to ~$350B by 2045.
TAM / Pipeline:
Estimated TAM of ~780 GW through 2035 (data centers plus industrial decarbonization).
Deep Fission’s 12.5 GW of letters of intent (LOIs) represent ~1.6% of this TAM, with conservative serviceable deployment of 5–10 GW possible by 2035 and aggressive scenarios of 25–50 GW.
Commercial Roadmap:
2026: Pilot reactor (Kansas) targeted to reach criticality (DOE Reactor Pilot Program).
2028: First 150 MWe commercial project (Texas or Utah) with $70–140M upfront plus recurring revenue potential.
2029–2030: Larger 1.5 GWe borehole project and multi‑project scale‑up, capturing 12.5 GW pipeline with cumulative revenue potential of $8–16B by ~2030.
Business Model: diversified, asset‑light tilt
Upfront engineering, reactor delivery and EPC support ($70–140M per 150 MWe project combined).
Recurring IP licensing and O&M/service fees (target $10M+ per 150 MWe unit annually).
Optional equity stakes in projects (10–30%), giving exposure to long‑term electricity sales under PPAs.
Key Commercial Relationships:
12.5 GW LOI pipeline across Kansas, Texas, Utah (mix of hosts and offtakers).
Strategic partnership with Endeavour to co‑develop 2 GW for hyperscalers/data centers at a target price of $0.05–0.07/kWh.
Competitive Position & Regulatory
Regulatory:
One of 10 companies selected into the U.S. DOE Reactor Pilot Program (Executive Order 14301) with a targeted 18‑month NRC review and fast‑track commercialization framework.
Program aims to see at least three advanced reactors reach criticality by July 4, 2026; Oklo currently appears to be in the lead with multiple project selections and nuclear safety approvals.
Competitive Landscape:
Competes with Oklo, NuScale, TerraPower, Kairos, X‑Energy and other DOE pilot participants.
Differentiation centered on: underground deployment, LEU fuel, lowest estimated cost per MW, and ~6‑month deployment timeline.
Valuation Context:
Oklo: ~$15.7B market cap, pre‑revenue, with ~$1.2B cash, illustrating market willingness to assign multi‑billion valuations to pre‑revenue advanced nuclear.
NuScale: ~$1.5B market cap with revenue but large losses, highlighting execution and cost‑overrun risk even with NRC approval.
Deep Fission’s implied value of ~$0.024M per MW of LOI pipeline (~12.5 GW) versus Oklo at ~$10.5M/MW and NuScale at ~$0.25M/MW suggests Deep Fission trades at a steep discount to pipeline.
Key Risks & Mitigants
Technology / Execution:
Underground PWR at scale is unproven; first‑of‑a‑kind drilling, heat extraction and maintenance at 1‑mile depths present technical and schedule risk.
Mitigants include use of proven PWR, geothermal, and deep drilling technologies, experienced drilling leadership, modular design, and DOE pilot support.
Regulatory / Policy:
Novel underground concept may require additional NRC scrutiny and new regulatory precedents; delays beyond the 18‑month target are possible.
Experienced VP Regulatory (30‑year NRC background) and strong alignment with U.S. executive orders targeting 300 GW of added nuclear capacity by 2050 and AI/military use cases.
Financial / Capital:
Recent $30M PIPE may be insufficient for full commercialization; further equity or strategic capital likely, with dilution risk to early investors.
Plan relies on third‑party project finance, DOE grants/loans, and strategic partners (e.g., hyperscalers, utilities) to fund large projects off balance sheet.
Scenario Valuation (SEQH Framework)
Bull Case (2035):
Pilot by 2026, first commercial project by 2028, 5 GW deployed by 2035, LCOE $50–70/MWh, strong multi‑stream revenue.
Sum‑of‑the‑parts value ~$17.3B; ~57x upside vs. current $300M and ~48% IRR over 10 years.
Base Case (2035):
1‑year delays, LCOE modestly higher, 2 GW deployed by 2035, partial pipeline conversion.
Implied valuation $5–7B; ~17–23x return (~33–37% IRR).
Bear Case (2035):
Significant delays, LCOE $80–100/MWh, only ~500 MW deployed.
Valuation $1–2B; ~3–7x return (~13–22% IRR).
SEQH View: Risk‑adjusted expected return in the ~20–30% IRR range over 10 years for investors with high risk tolerance and long horizons, with recommended portfolio allocation of 2–5%.
Full Report
Full SEQH Capital Research Deep Fission Investment Discovery Report, including:
Detailed technology architecture, safety and IP analysis (24+ patent filings; five core patent categories).
Full SMR market data, TAM/SAM/SOM modeling, and hyperscaler demand analysis.
Comprehensive competitive matrix and public comp table across advanced nuclear and uranium.
Detailed revenue build, project economics, financing structures and roadmap by year.
Expanded risk register with probability/impact assessment and mitigation strategies.
Complete scenario valuation model and references.
FULL REPORT ATTACHED BELOW:
