Earnings Preview
Week of 30 Sep – 4 Oct 2025
Sunday, 28 Sep 2025 | 21:00 ET
“What matters isn’t the headline beat/miss—it’s the revision impulse 24-hours post print. Below we show you the micro-data that typically moves the revision curve.”
1. MACRO CONTEXT BEFORE THE OPEN
Fed-speak blackout begins Monday → no offsetting Fedspeak to cushion negative guides.
ISM Mfg (Mon): Street 47.5; our tracker 47.2, any sub-46 print historically triggers a 1.8 ppt cut to Q4 S&P 500 EPS within 5 days.
Dollar (DXY) +1.3% QTD; every 1% Δ = –0.4% headwind to S&P 500 revs; biggest exposed this week: NKE, CAG.
Oct-15 quarterly VIX expiry starts to weight gamma; expect mechanically lower realized vol into Thu–Fri prints → option markets under-price 2-day post-earnings drift by ~18% vs. 3-yr avg.
2. HIGH-IMPACT CALENDAR (EST)
TickerReport Day (BMO/AMC)Cons. EPSOur EPSKey Binary Variable24-h Move ImpliedNKETue 1 Oct AMC$0.87$0.83China comp –6% vs –2%±6.2%STZThu 3 Oct BMO$3.58$3.61Beer depletions +8.2%±4.3%KMXFri 4 Oct BMO$0.95$1.02Used-unit comps +11%±7.1%CAGWed 2 Oct BMO$0.65$0.67Organic sales –0.6%±3.2%MSMTue 1 Oct BMO$1.41$1.43Volume –1% (pricing +3%)±5.0%
(Only names with ≥$5 bn market-cap or high macro-beta are fully modelled below.)
3. DEEP-DIVE MODELS & SENSITIVITIES
NIKE (NKE) – Q1-FY26 – Tue 1 Oct AMC
Consensus: EPS $0.87 (-9% y/y) | Rev $12.98 bn (+2.5%) | GM 44.6% (-120 bp)
Our Estimate: EPS $0.83 | Rev $12.83 bn | GM 44.2%
Key Debates:
China (19% rev): NBS sportswear sales +2% y/y vs NKE’s +22% comp last yr → we model –6% y/y. Every –100 bp China comp = –$0.04 EPS.
Digital: SNKRS fatigue evident—US app downloads –18% y/y (SensorTower) → digital rev est. flat vs street +5%.
Gross Margin delta: Air freight from Vietnam to US (Drewry) –22% y/y, but FX (EUR & CNY) cuts 70 bp; net we see –50 bp vs guidance –75-100 bp.
Inventory: Days on hand 109 (Street 104); if >115, expect another reserve charge (last qtr $0.05 hit).
Option Set-up: Straddle implies ±6.2% move vs 8-qtr avg ±7.1%. Put-call skew 1-std expensive → set-up favours sell-the-vol.
Revision Trigger: Sub-44% GM or China –>–8% = FY26 EPS est. cut >4% in 48 h (per our text-scrape model).
CONSTELLATION BRANDS (STZ) – Q2-FY25 – Thu 3 Oct BMO
Consensus: EPS $3.58 (+9%) | Beer depletions +7.5% | Net sales $3.05 bn
Our Estimate: EPS $3.61 | Beer volumes +8.2% (vs +9.3% prior qtr)
Micro-data:
Nielsen xAOC 12 wks to 14 Sep: STZ beer dollar sales +9.2% (share +60 bp); Modelo Especial +13%.
Agave: Spot tequila prices –11% y/y; 30 bp tailwind to Corona Premier COGS.
Cedar Rapids brewery now at 92% utilisation (from 86%) → incremental 90 bp beer GM.
Wine divestiture DCF: Remaining wine & spirits now <9% EBITDA; management likely guides FY25 wine EBITDA –6% but reiterates +9-11% total EPS growth.
Balance Sheet: Net debt/EBITDA 2.9×; buy-back capacity $1.7 bn remaining; 60% of EPS beat historically converted to incremental repurchase announcement.
Post-print Revision Pattern: Last 8 qtrs, STZ has seen ≥2% FY EPS revision in 6 of 8 prints; realised volatility +4.3% on average even when inline.
CARMAX (KMX) – Q2-FY26 – Fri 4 Oct BMO
Consensus: EPS $0.95 (vs $0.75 LY) | Used-unit comps +9.5% | Revenue $7.35 bn
Our Estimate: EPS $1.02 | Comps +11%
Why We’re 7% Above:
Manheim used-vehicle index +4.1% y/y; KMX historically captures 93% of index Δ in gross profit/unit.
SG&A per unit: Guide $4,125; we model $4,070 on higher throughput (+9% store traffic Google Mobility).
Funding cost: 3-mo ABS spread 95 bp vs 140 bp LY → floor-plan savings $18 m.
CAF Origination: Net spread 6.8% (flat q/q) but 30+ dp delinquency 3.1% vs 3.4% LY; reserve release upside $0.04.
Risk: Wholesale units (23% volume) see –4% ASP; every –1% = –$0.02 EPS.
Sentiment: Short interest 12.4% of float (highest in 3 yrs); setup favourable for squeeze on >$1.00 print.
CONAGRA BRANDS (CAG) – Q1-FY26 – Wed 2 Oct BMO
Consensus: EPS $0.65 | Organic sales –1.2% | GM 28.1%
Our Estimate: EPS $0.67 | Organic –0.6%
Drivers:
Retail scanner data: Frozen +1% y/y, Staples –3%; weighted avg –0.8% → in-line.
Input cost basket (wheat, dairy, freight) –2.3% y/y; management guided –1.5%, so 40 bp upside to GM.
Volume elasticity: 70 bp price/mix drag expected; elasticity model shows –0.6× vs –0.8× historical → benign.
Frozen segment (33% rev): Air-fryer sub-line +18% y/y; could offset Slim Jim weakness in Snacks.
Guidance: Mgmt typically reiterates full-year; if they raise even 1 ppt, stock has traded +3.5% intraday avg.
MSC INDUSTRIAL (MSM) – Q4-FY25 – Tue 1 Oct BMO
Consensus: EPS $1.41 | Net sales $1.01 bn | GM 44.2%
Our Estimate: EPS $1.43 | Sales $1.02 bn
Channel Checks:
Fastenal & Grainger Aug daily sales +4.1% & +7% → US manufacturing MRO demand stabilising.
Price contribution still +3% y/y (vs +4% prior qtr); volume –1%.
Gross margin upside: Private-label mix 35% (+120 bp y/y) → 30 bp GM tailwind.
Ops leverage: Operating margin guided 13.0%; every +10 bp = +$0.015 EPS.
Risk: PMIS new orders 46.8; if sub-45 next Mon, stock trades –5% (beta 1.4 to ISM).
4. QUICK-HIT NAMES (EPS SENSITIVITY TABLE)
TickerDayCons. EPSOur EPSKey VariableDelta/unit$0.01 EPS =LWWed$0.95$0.97Frozen potato volume1% = $0.0333 m sharesMKCThu$0.64$0.63Flavour solns. price+1 ppt = $0.025268 m shRPMThu$1.40$1.42Raw mat. basket–1% = $0.015129 m shGBXFri$1.15$1.21Rail-car deliveries100 units = $0.0627 m shPOWLWed$1.88$1.95Power-gen mix1 ppt T&D = $0.0426 m sh
5. OPTIONS & DARK-POOL FLOW
Single-stock straddles are pricing 1.6 ppt less gamma than 2-yr avg; call skew artificially high into consumer names (CAG, MKC) → optimal to sell 1-wk covered calls 1% OTM.
Dark-pool prints >$5 m Fri close: KMX 1.2 m shares @ $69.02 (1.3× VWAP); STZ 600 k @ $263.15 (below offer) – both names flagged as “accumulation” by our flow model.
6. POST-PRINT PERFORMANCE ALPHABET
(Last 12 quarters, average next-day move if…)
Beat & RaiseBeat InlineMissNKE+5.8%+1.4%–7.2%STZ+4.1%+2.0%–5.5%KMX+8.9%+3.7%–9.4%CAG+3.2%+1.1%–4.0%
Probability-weighted expected 1-day return (our est.): NKE +0.9%, STZ +2.3%, KMX +4.1%, CAG +1.4%.
7. TRADE STRUCTURES WORTH LOOKING AT
NKE – Sep-27 82.5/77.5 put 1×2 @ $0.17 credit (capture skew, hedge China tail).
STZ – Buy 260 calls / sell 270 calls (Oct-11) 2.05 debit; target $3.50 on beat & raise.
KMX – Risk-reversal: buy 72.5 calls / sell 65 puts (Oct-11) for $0.20 net credit; breakeven 69.8 vs spot 69.0.
8. RED-FLAGS TO WATCH IN CALL SCRIPTS
NKE: “promotional environment” or “higher freight input” both historically flag –5% move within 48 h.
STZ: “glass inflation” or “agave shortage” → –3% intraday even on EPS beat.
KMX: “wholesale margin compression” → stock under-performs XRT by 250 bp next 5 days.
CLOSING BIAS
With buy-side gross exposure at 18-month low (GS Prime), even modest guidance raises are being rewarded 1.5× average. Focus on names where Street deltas are too low (KMX, MSM) and avoid high-expectation consumer staples (CAG, MKC) unless you can capture >75 bp of EPS beat.