End of Quarter Recap

Sep 30, 2025

∙ Paid

End-of-Quarter Strategy Note

Date/Time of Publication: 5:56 pm ET, 30 Sep 2025
1. Executive Summary

The S&P 500 closed Q3-25 at 6,658.56, up 7.8% q/q and 19.4% YTD—its best first-nine-months print since 1997.
Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite outperformed (+11.2% q/q, +26.7% YTD) while the Dow industrials lagged but still posted a record high (46,397; +5.2% q/q).
September defied seasonal orthodoxy: S&P +3.5%, Nasdaq +5.6%, the strongest September since 2010.
Cross-asset backdrop: 10-yr UST yield eased 38 bps intra-quarter to 4.13%, DXY −2.4%, gold +6% to $3,850, WTI crude −23% to $62.70.
Positioning: Q3 ETF flow leadership flipped from mega-cap tech into small-caps (IWM +9.5% q/q) and growth-value convergence; R2000 finally reclaimed its Nov-21 all-time high after 967 trading-day hiatus.