FRMI Earnings Recap and Outlook
11/11/25
FERMI INC. (NASDAQ: FRMI)
Q3 2025 EARNINGS TEAR SHEET
SEQH Capital Research | Investment Research Division
November 11, 2025
COMPANY SNAPSHOT
Sector: Real Estate | Industry: Energy Infrastructure REIT
Headquarters: Amarillo, Texas | Founded: January 10, 2025
Stock Price: $25.31 (as of market close, November 10, 2025)
Market Capitalization: $15.13 billion
IPO Date: September 30, 2025 | IPO Price: $21.00 | Return from IPO: +20.5%
Business Model: Fermi develops, owns, and operates behind-the-meter electric generation infrastructure and data center real estate designed to deliver gigawatt-scale power for artificial intelligence computing. Structured as a REIT, the company is constructing an 11 GW integrated energy campus, the world’s largest private electric grid, combining nuclear, natural gas, solar, and battery storage on a 99-year sovereign land lease with Texas Tech University System.
THIRD QUARTER 2025 FINANCIAL RESULTS
Reporting Period: January 10, 2025 (Inception) through September 30, 2025
Capital Structure (post-IPO):
Shares Outstanding: 597.67 million
Public Float: 207.99 million (34.8% of total)
Insider Ownership: 45.7% (CEO: 23.4%; Rick Perry family: ~15%; management team: ~7%)
KEY OPERATIONAL ACHIEVEMENTS
Construction & Permitting
Project Matador Construction Commenced: On-site geotechnical work, soil testing, and foundation engineering initiated in Q3 2025
TCEQ Preliminary Approval: Texas granted preliminary approval for 6 GW of natural gas generation capacity (>50% of ultimate 11 GW campus)
Land Lease Secured: 99-year sovereign lease on 5,855 acres in Carson County with Texas Tech University System, annual rent escalating from $1.2M (Year 1) to $3.5M+ (Year 5)
Tax Abatement: Carson County approved 10-year property tax abatement and reinvestment zone designation
Equipment Procurement (2.0 GW Secured for 2026 Delivery)
Siemens Energy: 1.1 GW of Frame F-class SGT6-5000F combined-cycle gas turbines, LOI executed September 2025
Mobile Power Solutions: 157.5 MW of GE TM2500 modular turbines under 20-year capital lease, delivery Q4 2025
Total Secured Capacity: 2.0 GW contracted for 2026 deployment, exceeding Phase 1 target of 1.0 GW by December 31, 2026
Strategic Partnerships
Westinghouse Electric: Nuclear licensing support, AP1000 reactor engineering collaboration
Hyundai E&C / Doosan Enerbility: Nuclear construction and equipment supply MOUs
Texas Tech University System: 99-year lease, academic collaboration, workforce development
City of Amarillo: 20-year water supply agreement (2.5 MGD at 2x taxpayer rate, scalable to 10 MGD)
Customer Validation
$150M Advance in Aid of Construction Agreement (AIAC): First prospective hyperscale client committed $150 million in secured capital for Phase 1 infrastructure, announced November 6, 2025. This agreement is expected to convert into a definitive long-term lease by December 2025, with tenant occupancy and first revenue anticipated in 2026 following Phase 1 energization.
CAPITAL MARKETS PERFORMANCE
IPO Execution (September 30, 2025)
Base Offering: 32.5 million shares at $21.00 per share
Overallotment Exercise: 4.875 million additional shares (full 15% greenshoe)
Gross Proceeds: $785 million
Dual Listing: NASDAQ (FRMI) and London Stock Exchange (FRMI), first simultaneous U.S./UK listing since 2001
Underwriters: UBS (lead), Evercore ISI, Cantor, Mizuho
Trading Performance
52-Week Range: $18.70 - $36.99
First Day Close: $32.53 (+55% from IPO price)
Current Price: $25.31 (November 10, 2025)
Average Daily Volume: 7 million shares
Analyst Coverage (7 firms)
Consensus Rating: Strong Buy
Mean Price Target: $30.86 (+21.9% upside from current price)
Coverage: UBS (Buy, $30 PT), Berenberg, Evercore ISI, Mizuho, others
PROJECT MATADOR: DEVELOPMENT ROADMAP
Data Center Development
Phase 1 Footprint: 1 million square feet (of eventual 18 million sq ft campus)
Phase 1 Target: December 31, 2026 completion, first tenant occupancy and revenue commencing 2026
First Revenue: Tenant lease payments expected to commence in 2026 upon Phase 1 energization and tenant onboarding
Nuclear Licensing Timeline
COLA Submission: June 17, 2025 (four AP1000 reactors, 4.6 GW total)
NRC Acceptance: September 5, 2025 (Parts 1 and 2 accepted for review)
Construction Start Target: December 31, 2026
First Unit Commercial Operation: 2032
MANAGEMENT & GOVERNANCE
Executive Leadership
Executive Compensation: CEO and C-suite executives receive $500,000 annual base salaries with performance bonuses up to 200% of base and annual long-term incentive awards valued at 200% of base (starting January 2026). CEO receives semi-annual “Top-Up Grants” to maintain 40% of all equity awards issued to employees.
VALUATION ANALYSIS
Current Valuation Metrics
Enterprise Value: ~$14.0 billion (market cap less pro forma cash)
EV / Projected Phase 1 Revenue: 9.3x (assumes $1.5B annual revenue from first tenant)
Price / Book: N/M (negative tangible book value due to development stage)
Price / Earnings: N/M (pre-revenue, negative earnings)
Revenue Projection Sensitivity (Phase 1 only, 1 GW capacity)
Assuming industry-standard pricing of $200-300 per kW-month for premium, redundant power plus $150-200 per square foot annually for data center space, Phase 1 (1 GW power + 1M sq ft data center) revenue potential upon tenant occupancy in 2026:
Note: Fermi has disclosed a non-binding LOI with its first tenant for 1 GW, with the agreement expected to convert into a definitive lease by December 2025. UBS estimates this tenant relationship could generate $1.5B in annualized revenue once operational in 2026. The first tenant has committed a $150M prepayment under the AIAC structure. Actual pricing, lease terms, and tenant identity remain undisclosed.
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
