Global Macro Standpoint Analysis

SEQH Capital Partners Research
Global Economic & Markets Intelligence – Q4 2025 Outlook
Author: Investment Strategy & Macro Analytics Desk
Date/Time: 02-Oct-2025 18:13 ET

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. Liquidity tide is receding but not yet negative: G4 central-bank balance-sheets still expand at a 4 % annualised pace vs. 19 % in Q1-21; however, the composition has flipped from QE to gold & short-dated bills (e.g., BoJ, PBoC).

2. Realised macro volatility is at 25-yr lows (MOVE 87, VIX 13.1) yet cross-asset pricing volatility is rising, classic late-cycle wedge.

3. Our now-cast shows global GDP q/q ar. tracking 2.6 % vs. 3.1 % in Q3. 2025 full-year is now 3.2 % (IMF Oct-revision: +20 bp vs. Apr).

4. Earnings: bottom-up consensus expects 11.8 % EPS growth ’25 vs. 9.4 % top-down model; gap widest since Dec-19 → downside skew.

5. Policy: Fed cutting cycle priced 62 bp by Dec-26; ECB 48 bp; PBoC on hold (5-yr LPR 3.85 %). Fiscal impulse is mildly positive ex-China.

6. Preferred Q4 postures: OW global value vs. growth (1.4 σ cheap), OW 5-yr TIPS breakevens vs. UST 5-yr, OW CNH & KRW vs. EUR, OW copper vs. gold, UW EU banks vs. US banks. Tactical beta 0.65.

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SECTION 1 – MACRO DATA-DELTA (LAST 4 WEEKS)
A. Growth Surprises (Citi G10 CSI)
US: –38 bp | EA: +51 bp | China: +27 bp | Japan: –12 bp | UK: +34 bp

B. Inflation Pulse (YoY, pp chg vs. Aug)
US CPI: 2.42 % (–15 bp) | Core PCE: 2.63 % (–7 bp)
EA HICP: 2.21 % (–9 bp) | China CPI: 0.91 % (+21 bp) | JP CPI ex-fresh: 2.33 % (+4 bp)

C. Labour
US NFP 3-mo MA: 176 k (–42 k) | U-3 4.06 % | Vacancy/Unemployed 1.17 (Sahm 0.12)
EA UR 6.4 % (unch.) | JP 2.5 % | Youth UR KL: 6.9 % (–30 bp)

D. Credit & Liquidity
US FCI (Goldman): 99.8 (–15 bp vs. Aug) | EUR FCI: 0.35 σ tight
SOFR 5.31 %; €STR 3.34 %; SHIBOR 3-O 1.78 %
G4 repo specialness index 0.42 (0.9 σ) → collateral scarcity pockets

E. Fiscal
US FY-25 deficit 6.1 % GDP (CBO Sep) | China augmented deficit 7.8 % GDP | India 5.7 %

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SECTION 2 – CROSS-ASSET PERFORMANCE MAP (YTD local, total-return)

Equity (USD-hedged)
MSCI ACWI +14.7 % | US large-cap +14.2 % | US small-cap +7.1 % | DM ex-US +17.4 % | EM +21.8 %
Sector dispersion (1-mo realised) 14.8 % → 95th %-ile since 2000.

Fixed Income
UST 2-yr 3.68 % (–23 bp MTD) | 10-yr 3.91 % (–18 bp) | 30-yr 4.27 % (–11 bp)
Bund 10-yr 2.23 % | JGB 10-yr 0.89 % | CGB 10-yr 2.05 %
Global agg (hedged) +5.4 % YTD | US IG OAS 98 bp (–4 bp) | US HY 323 bp (–12 bp)

FX
DXY 100.9 (–1.8 % MTD) | EUR 1.119 | JPY 142.4 | CNY 7.03 | BRL 5.42 | KRW 1293
REER: CNY –3.2 % YTD, KRW +6.8 %, MXN +4.1 %

Commodities
Brent $74.6 (–5.3 % QTD) | WTI $70.9 | Copper $4.39/lb (+6.8 % QTD) | Gold $2687/oz (+4.5 %)
CRB index +3.1 % YTD | EUA carbon €65 (–18 %)

Crypto
BTC $63.8 k (β vs. NASDAQ 0.46, 30-d) | ETH $2.55 k

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SECTION 3 – REGIONAL MICROSCOPE

UNITED STATES
• Activity: ISM Mfg 47.9, Services 53.4; Atlanta GDPNow Q4 2.1 % SAAR.
• Consumption: real card-spend +2.8 % y/y (Bank of America); lower-income cohort –0.6 %.
• Housing: 30-yr mortgage 6.29 %; NAHB 43; existing inventory 3.7 mo (still deficit).
• Corporate: S&P 500 net margin 12.4 % (Q2); buy-back announcements $219 bn in Sep (2nd highest on record). Balance-sheet liquidity ratio 28 % (90th %-ile).
• Risk: 65 % of ‘26 maturity stack is IG rated; refinancing wall manageable if 10-yr < 4.5 %.
• Election tail: prediction-market implied probability of split Congress 58 % → gridlock = modest fiscal impulse.