Laser Enrichment as the Photonics Sector's Largest Undiscovered TAM

Jun 28, 2026

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SEQH CAPITAL RESEARCH - TEAR SHEET
LASER ENRICHMENT - PHOTONICS’ LARGEST UNMODELED NUCLEAR TAM

WHAT THIS REPORT ARGUES

The core thesis is that laser-based uranium enrichment is not mainly a nuclear niche, but an overlooked future demand engine for specialized photonics systems, created by the Western nuclear fuel shortage and the rise of HALEU-hungry advanced reactors.
SEQH frames this as the largest undiscovered photonics TAM in its coverage universe, tying a $30.5 billion per year Western enrichment market by 2035 to companies across both photonics and nuclear fuel infrastructure.

Core setup

SEQH says two structural forces are colliding: the U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports, which removes a major source of Western enriched fuel by 2028, and the buildout of advanced reactors that need HALEU, which requires far more separative work than standard LEU.
In the report’s base math, HALEU demand reaches a point where Western supply is short by about 738 metric tons per year by 2035, while total Western enrichment TAM reaches about $30.5 billion annually at $200 per SWU.
The key leap is that solving this gap may require commercial-scale laser enrichment, which turns the fuel crisis into a future procurement cycle for high-performance laser systems.

SEQH explains that SILEX-type enrichment works by exploiting the tiny absorption difference between 235235UF66 and 238238UF66 molecules, using mid-infrared light near 16 microns to selectively excite the target isotopologue.
That wavelength requirement is what makes this a real photonics problem: standard fiber lasers and telecom InP lasers do not fit, while the most credible paths are tunable CO2 systems with Raman conversion or potentially future QCL-based architectures.
SEQH’s conclusion is that the first commercial laser enrichment plants could trigger one of the largest industrial procurements of specialized laser equipment ever, even though almost no photonics analyst models that today.

The report’s enrichment waterfall breaks 2035 demand into roughly $15.0 billion of replaced Western LEU demand, $8.0 billion of HALEU demand for advanced reactors, $2.5 billion of DOE strategic reserve and government use, and $5.0 billion of allied export demand, summing to $30.5 billion.
SEQH argues laser economics have crossed from speculative to urgent because spot SWU pricing reached about $200, versus academic laser-enrichment cost estimates of roughly $30 to $60 per SWU, with first-generation commercial systems still attractive even at $80 to $100 per SWU.
In that framework, a 6 million SWU per year laser facility would generate around $1.2 billion of annual enrichment revenue at current pricing, and the embedded photonics capex and maintenance demand is largely unmodeled by the Street.

SEQH identifies four active laser-enrichment programs as of June 2026: GLE / SILEX, QLE / ASPI, LIS Technologies, and an AVLIS revival path tied to lithium rather than uranium.
GLE is the sector’s anchor proof point because it reached TRL-6 in October 2025 and has a Paducah commercial license application in review, while QLE / ASPI is the only U.S.-listed public equity where laser enrichment is the core equity story.
LIS Technologies is positioned as the key U.S.-origin patented alternative, with a planned $1.38 billion Oak Ridge investment and 5.5 million SWU per year target, while NNE matters because it is the only public advanced reactor developer with a disclosed DOE-linked relationship to a laser-enrichment program.

Within photonics, Coherent is judged the most relevant public company because it has the broadest laser portfolio and the closest commercial adjacency through CO2, fiber, and DPSS systems, although its 10.6 micronCO2 base still needs engineering work to reach the ~16 micron enrichment requirement.
ASPI / QLE is the direct integrated enrichment equity, BWXT is the downstream beneficiary regardless of which enrichment technology wins, and OKLO plus NNE are treated as HALEU demand catalysts rather than photonics beneficiaries.
SEQH is explicit that Sivers and Lumentum do not directly fit the enrichment-laser physics: Sivers’ InP platform operates at 1270 to 1650 nm, and Lumentum’s relevance is only indirect through industrial lasers and pump-module adjacency.

SEQH’s five-part conclusion is that laser enrichment has now crossed the technical threshold to be commercially credible, SWU pricing has structurally improved the economics, photonics analysts still do not model the TAM, COHR is the most relevant photonics name, and BWXT benefits downstream no matter which enrichment platform wins.
The broadest implication is that photonics and nuclear fuel will converge when the first commercial laser-enrichment procurement contracts are placed, because enrichment capacity then becomes a direct buyer of advanced laser systems rather than just a nuclear policy topic.
The biggest caveat is also central to the note: exact SILEX laser specifications are classified, so SEQH’s photonics TAM is a first-principles framework rather than a disclosed procurement model.

FULL 33-PAGE PDF REPORT INCLUDING EXTENSIVE SECTOR MODELING, FORECASTING, VALUATION METRICS, AND MORE AVAILABLE BELOW: