Market Brief 10/1/25
SEQH Capital Partners Research – Q4 2025 Market Brief
Wednesday, 1 Oct 2025 | 06:53 AM ET
Market Digest – Morning Commentary
Macro Snapshot
Government Shutdown: The partial federal shutdown that began 30 Sep is not (yet) rattling risk assets. Futures are flat-to-higher and the 10-yr yield is +3 bp at 3.72 %. Traders are treating this as a transient headline rather than a growth shock, but the October non-farm payroll report is at risk of delay, removing a key Fed input before the 30 Oct FOMC.
Fed Path: Swables now price 47 bp of cuts for 2025 (was 65 bp a month ago). Friday’s ISM Mfg and today’s JOLTS (if released) will be scrutinised; a sub-48 ISM could re-accelerate cut pricing.
Dollar & Gold: DXY -0.2 % at 100.8, while gold printed a fresh all-time high of $3,918.80 oz on safe-haven bids and real-yield compression.
Crude: WTI -1 % $61.75, Brent -0.9 % $65.44, supply surplus chatter outweighs Mid-East risk premium.
Analyst Firehose
Morgan Stanley Housing (30 Sep note): Effective mortgage rate still 425 bp below current 6.25 % coupon; only 17 % of the mortgage universe is refinanceable. Model shows purchase activity won’t inflect sustainably until 5.5 % mortgage rate, still ~75 bp away.
Zacks Investment Ideas (out this morning) highlight CoreWeave (CRWV), GPU cloud provider that counts Microsoft & Meta as clients, named as a “picks-and-shovels” play on AI inference growth. Street FY26 revenue est. +172 % vs FY25.
BofA (pre-shutdown) trimmed Q3 GDP tracking to 2.4 % from 2.8 % on weaker wholesale inventories; sees Q4 at 1.9 %—below 2.3 % consensus.
Earnings & Corporate
Delta Air Lines (DAL) update reaffirms Q3 EPS $0.70–1.00; traffic RASM +5 % YoY on premium cabin strength. Stock +7 % pre-market, 12-mo fwd P/E 8.2× vs legacy avg 9.5×.
Constellation Brands (STZ) cut FY25 EPS guide to $13.40–13.80 (from $13.60–13.80) on beer deceleration; shares -18 % AH, largest S&P 500 decliner Tuesday.
Market Watch – One-Page Snapshot
| Asset, 6:50 AM ET | Spot / Level | 1-day | Q4-to-date | 2025 YTD |
| ----------------- | ------------ | ------ | ---------- | -------- |
| S\&P 500 | 5,742 | +0.2 % | +0.2 % | +23.8 % |
| Nasdaq-100 | 20,180 | +0.3 % | +0.3 % | +28.4 % |
| 10-yr UST | 3.72 % | +3 bp | +3 bp | +12 bp |
| DXY | 100.82 | -0.2 % | -0.2 % | -4.6 % |
| Gold (oz) | \$3,908 | +0.6 % | +0.6 % | +34 % |
| WTI Crude | \$61.75 | -1.0 % | -1.0 % | -19 % |
| VIX | 15.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -4.1 |
Economy in a sentence
Growth is slowing (Atlanta Fed Q3 now-cast 2.4 %), but inflation remains sticky, Aug PCE +2.7 %, keeping the Fed in data-dependent limbo until the shutdown resolves.
Stock Idea – Long: CoreWeave (CRWV)
Thesis: Proprietary GPU cluster orchestration software + long-term contracts with hyperscalers create a capital-light, high-margin revenue stream.
Catalyst: Microsoft expanding Azure AI capacity for Copilot roll-out, CoreWeave disclosed as strategic partner 12 Sep. Street est. revenue CAGR 140 % ’25-’27E.
Valuation: 9.8× 2026E sales vs pure-play AI datacentre avg 12×; EV/EBITDA turns positive 2026.
Risk: Concentration (top-3 customers 78 % revenue), capex pull-forward by competitors, potential GPU oversupply 2026.
Entry / Target: Initiate half position < $42; add on close above $45; 12-mo target $60 (12× 2026E sales).
Market Movers – Technical Set-Ups & Tactical Picks
| Ticker | Last | Technical | Catalyst | Trade Setup |
| -------- | -------- | ------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ |
| **NVDA** | \$123.40 | Flag breakout retest; 14-day RSI 58 | CEO keynote at “AI Infrastructure” conf. 3 Oct | Buy Oct-11 \$125 calls @ \$2.80; stop \$119 |
| **DAL** | \$54.70 | 50-dma crossover; volume +180 % | Raised FY25 EPS guidance pre-market | Long stock, add on close > \$55.30; tgt \$60 |
| **STZ** | \$212.50 | RSI 26 (oversold); gap fill to \$200 | Guidance cut—sentiment flush | Sell Oct-18 \$200 p @ \$2.30; 30 % out-of-the-money |
| **XLE** | \$75.20 | Falling-wedge support; MACD pos. divergence | Crude seasonality turns positive mid-Oct | Long XLE, 3 % position; stop \$72.50; tgt \$82 |
| **GLD** | \$373.6 | Parabolic extension; 8-dma buffer | Real-yields -15 bp since Sep FOMC | Trail stop \$363; add half size on daily close > \$375 |
Options Flow Nugget
Single-stock call/put ratio 1.42 (1-month high); largest gamma build-up in NVDA Oct-11 weeklys, $125 strike open interest 118 k vs 90-d avg 38 k.
Quant Signal
Our proprietary short-interest + earnings revision composite flag lists ON Semiconductor (ON), short interest 19 % of float, FY26 EPS revisions -11 % last 4 wks, potential tactical short into Q3 report (28 Oct).
Bottom Line
Shutdown noise is background; focus on data vacuum until ISM Friday. Maintain barbell, AI winners + oversold consumer staples. Keep gold exposure via GLD calls as a convex hedge to fiscal dysfunction.
— SEQH Capital Partners Research