MARKET BRIEF 10/2/25
SEQH Capital Partners Research – Q4 2025 Market Brief
Thursday, 2 Oct 2025 | 06:47 AM ET
Market Digest – Morning Commentary
Macro Snapshot
Government Shutdown, Day 2: Risk assets ignore headline noise,
S&P 500 futures +0.3 %, Nasdaq +0.4 %, 10-yr yield -4 bp to 3.68 %.
Data Blackout: September ADP private payrolls fell 32 k (consensus +95 k), the first decline since Jan-24. Official non-farm payrolls (Fri) cancelled; next possible print is 1 Nov. Fed now flying partially blind into 30 Oct meeting.
FOMC Minutes (14:00 ET): Markets will parse the Sep-16/17 discussion for dissent granularity, Governor Stephen Miran wanted 50 bp cut but was over-ruled. Look for any hint that tariff-driven inflation could truncate the easing cycle.
USD & Gold: DXY -0.3 % overnight to 100.5, gold record $3,941 oz** as real 10-yr TIPS yield dips below 1.50 %.
Crude: WTI -1.2 % $61.05 after Reuters sources say OPEC+ is debating a Dec roll-back of 180 k bpd voluntary cuts.
Analyst Firehose
Goldman Sachs (02 Oct) raises 2026 S&P 500 EPS to $275 (+7 % vs 2025) on AI cap-ex spill-over into Software & Industrials; lifts year-end-26 target to 6,600 (18× fwd EPS).
JPMorgan downgrades Regional Banks to Underweight, NII trough pushed to 2H-26 as deposit betas finally reset; prefers Money-Centers (C, JPM) with trading alpha.
Morgan Stanley Healthcare lifts Biogen (BIIB) to Overweight; TrumpRx “most-favoured-nation” deal with Pfizer lowers political overhang for entire sector; model adds $15/sh SOTP for BIIB’s Alzheimer’s pipeline.
Wells Fargo (30 Sep) introduces “AI Grid” basket, equal-weighted 25 names levered to power, cooling, connectivity; top picks Vertiv (VRT), Quanta (PWR), Amphenol (APH).
