Market Brief 10/24/25

Oct 24, 2025

SEQH CAPITAL PARTNERS RESEARCH

Market Tear Sheet · Friday, October 24, 2025

*Russell 2000 outperforming on rotation; small-cap rally continues.

Asia: Rally on easing US-China tensions. Hang Seng +0.74%, Nikkei +1.35%.
Europe: Steady ahead of U.S. inflation; strong corporate earnings buoy sentiment.
Oil: WTI $61.49/bbl, Brent $65.73/bbl. Weekly surge (+7%) on Russia sanctions, but profit-taking Friday.
Gold: $4,091/oz, -0.9%. Pullback from record highs as investors book profits; still up 9 weeks out of 10.
10-Yr Treasury: 3.99%, up 2bps as traders position for CPI print.

Today: Markets await critical September CPI (+3.1% YoY est.), the last key data before next week’s Fed decision. Tariffs and shelter costs are principal drivers to watch.
Fed Watch: 99% probability of 25bps rate cut Wednesday; another likely in December. All eyes on guidance for ’26.
Key Global Events: Trump-Xi meeting scheduled Oct 30. Trade tariff escalation remains a wildcard for volatility.
Earnings Season: 86% of S&P 500 companies beat profit estimates. Q3 EPS growth tracking +10% YoY, led by Financials, Tech, Industrials. Mega-cap tech (AAPL, MSFT, META, AMZN, GOOGL) report next week.

Intel (INTC): +7.7% on Q3 beat. EPS $0.23 (vs. $0.01 est.), AI chip sales strong. Maintains leadership in x86/AI compute.
Ford (F): Solid Q3 beat, modest 2025 guidance cut due to plant fire.
Today’s Majors: Procter & Gamble, Booz Allen, General Dynamics, Sanofi pre-market.
Mega-cap tech outlook is pivotal for S&P direction next week.

AI/Tech: Maintain exposure to NVDA/AMD/MSFT/AVGO as AI infrastructure/regulatory tailwinds drive Q4 momentum.
Small Caps: Recent outperformance may signal early rotation; look for follow-through on rate cut and earnings.
Financials/Industrials: Strength continues; benefiting from lending, defense, and energy infrastructure.
Energy/Oil: Volatility high, but buy dips on quality oilfield names, sanctions tightening supply.
Gold/Defensive: Book profits after historic run; keep as core hedge in uncertain macro.

Bias: Cautiously Bullish, but elevated volatility likely. Valuations stretched, leadership concentrated in “AI winners.”
Portfolio: Core large-cap tech & quality Financials, tactical rotations into Small Caps (IWM, SMDV), maintain hedges (cash, gold).
Tactical Move: Buy on weakness around CPI/FOMC/China headlines; Reduce if “risk-off” triggers (tariffs, hot CPI, earnings misses).

Prepared by: SEQH Capital Partners Research