Market Brief

Nov 24, 2025

Market Tear Sheet – November 24, 2025

SEQH Capital Partners Research | Morning Edition

Pre-market futures point up: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow futures are positive entering a condensed trading week as investors position for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and digest AI sector volatility.
Fed watch: December rate cut probability now near 67% after dovish signals from New York Fed President Williams and FOMC futures, up from ~40% last week; some street economists still anticipate a possible January cut over December, due to patchy government data and labor market uncertainty.
Treasury yields: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edges lower to 4.10% in premarket, supporting equity risk appetite. Curve steepening modestly as investors hedge policy risk ahead of delayed jobs/inflation reports.
VIX remains elevated at 23.43 (up +39% year/year), reflecting heightened uncertainty around AI valuations, Fed trajectory, and regulatory risks.
Commodities: WTI crude at $57.79/bbl on peace prospects in Russia/Ukraine, gold steady at $4,065/oz as dollar strength balanced by rate cut optimism.
Crypto: Bitcoin climbs near $86,800, rebounding from last week’s risk-off selloff. Crypto market cap now $2.96 trillion, with extreme fear index reading and low bitcoin dominance suggesting continued sector rotation.
Dollar Index (DXY): Flat at 100.17 as Fed easing expectations counteract global demand for USD; 1.3% stronger month-over-month.

Nvidia: Record results with $57B quarterly revenue, 62% YoY growth, upbeat Q4 guidance ($65B+), but sector price action signals “AI bubble” fatigue; shares gave up post-earnings gains as VIX spiked. Analyst upgrades continue, but short-term consolidation risk remains.
Micron Technology: Sector retreat after earnings beat and strong guidance; 16% pullback presents tactical entry for investors seeking AI infrastructure exposure and memory pricing leverage. Goldman Sachs target raised to $180, citing cyclical recovery and deep value.
Best Buy reports Q3 before open: Expectation for a slight miss on $9.6B revenue, but retail media network emerges as hidden bull theme. Consensus target implies 16% upside contingent on ad monetization.
Alibaba earnings Tuesday: Street consensus projects robust cloud/AI expansion mitigating e-commerce softness. Buy ratings hold as FX and margin volatility persists. Hong Kong trading surges pre-earnings; U.S. ADR target $198.43.
Technicals: S&P 500 holds structural uptrend above all key moving averages; support at 6,550, resistance at 6,800–6,850. RSI signals near-overbought, but trend remains intact for year-end rally if macro tone firms.

Most economic data (jobs, inflation, retail sales) delayed; the September jobs report showed 119K adds versus 54K expected, unemployment rose to 4.4%, cementing split views on Fed action.
Consumer sentiment at historic lows, Michigan index drops to 51.0—worst since June 2022, as inflation and labor concerns weigh. Price expectations moderated slightly; retail sales resilient but at risk for holidays.
Sector rotation evident: Tech sees profit-taking post-AI run; healthcare leads on defensive bid as investors seek resilient cash flow and lower multiples. XLV outperforms XLK, defensive positioning favored.
AI semiconductors: All categories (logic, memory, edge, datacenter, fabless, foundry) declined last week, profit-taking and sector sentiment swings set up rebound trades.

Accumulate Micron Technology (MU) on weakness, targeting 12–16% upside as cyclical valuation resets.
Long DELL and HPQ ahead of Tuesday’s earnings for AI infrastructure strength, but manage risk on revenue volatility.
Short retail and consumer discretionary (XLY) into holiday season, as sentiment and wage pressures erode margins.
Swing-trade SPY within 6,550–6,800 band; near-term trade favored until macro clarity emerges.
Options play: Sell VIX December 30 calls for premium, anticipating volatility normalization if Fed delivers cut.
Core allocation: Maintain defensive quality, trim extended tech, hold cash for tactical opportunism, and diversify with gold/Bitcoin.

Tuesday: Best Buy, Alibaba, Dell, HP, Deere, Autodesk, Zscaler, Workday earnings; retail sales, PPI, consumer confidence data expected.
Wednesday: Jobless claims, Fed Beige Book.
Thursday: Thanksgiving (markets closed).
Friday: Abbreviated session; Black Friday retail spotlight.

Fed’s December meeting remains pivotal for late-year direction; odds at ~67% for a cut, but economic fog and internal Fed split leave risk elevated.
Balance sheets remain robust, corporate buybacks trending at record pace (+15% YoY), delivering tailwind to equity markets.
Macro signals mixed: persistent disinflation, shaky jobs market, fading consumer confidence, and sector rotations highlight defensive allocation and nimble trading as essential for alpha retention in year-end positioning.