Market Brief

12/18/25

SEQH CAPITAL RESEARCH

MARKET BRIEF

RESEARCH DESK

18 December, 2025

U.S. equity futures are pointing higher into Thursday’s session on December 18, 2025, with a bias toward tech and growth leadership and a still‑supportive macro backdrop heading into year‑end. Nasdaq 100 futures are up roughly 0.8%, S&P 500 futures +0.4%, and Dow futures +0.2% as of around 7:20–7:25 a.m. ET, signaling a constructive open after recent choppy, rotation‑heavy trading.

Market snapshot

• S&P 500 futures: ~6,755, +0.4% pre‑market, indicating modest risk‑on sentiment with an expected tilt toward higher‑beta segments.

• Nasdaq 100 futures: ~24,868, +0.8%, suggesting renewed appetite for growth/AI and software after recent de‑risking.

• Dow futures: just under 48,000, +0.2%, pointing to a quieter session for value and cyclicals relative to tech.

Global cues remain mixed: European indices were modestly weaker in the prior session, underscoring lingering concerns over slowing growth into 2026 as signaled by leading indicators and survey data. For SEQH, the set‑up is “selective risk‑on” rather than broad melt‑up, with index strength likely masking continued factor and sector rotations.

Macro and policy watch

The near‑term macro tape is defined more by expectations and surveys than by a single marquee data print today, but the calendar still features Fed‑speak and second‑tier indicators that will feed into the 2026 growth and inflation narrative. Business inflation expectations from the Atlanta Fed are holding around 2.2% for the year‑ahead outlook, reinforcing the view that corporate price‑setting behavior is normalizing toward the Fed’s target band.

High‑frequency leading indicators point to a decelerating but not collapsing U.S. growth path: the Conference Board projects real GDP at about 1.8% in 2025, drifting toward 1.5% in 2026 as consumer strength fades and tighter financial conditions bite. This “slow‑but‑positive” baseline, combined with already‑tight credit risk pricing, argues for continued emphasis on balance‑sheet quality, cash‑flow visibility, and reasonable duration risk in equity positioning.

Nuclear and uranium focus

Uranium’s front‑month benchmark is trading in the high‑70s per pound, with recent prints around 78.30 USD/lb, up roughly 2–3% over the past month and ~5% year‑on‑year, signaling a consolidating but still elevated price regime. TradeTech highlights robust term activity and nearly five million pounds U3O8 contracted in October, with utilities actively locking in forward supply amid restarts of idled U.S. reactors, uprates at existing plants, and growing AI‑driven power‑purchase agreements with nuclear‑heavy utilities.

Long‑term price signals remain structurally bullish: TradeTech’s long‑term indicator exited 2024 at 82 USD/lb, up from 72 USD at the start of that year, and broader analyses point to persistent supply deficits and policy‑driven demand growth through the second half of the decade. The U.S. Geological Survey’s move to include uranium on its 2025 Critical Minerals List underscores its strategic importance for energy security and defense, reinforcing the policy floor under the fuel‑cycle complex. For SEQH, this continues to favor overweight exposure to high‑quality producers, enrichment and HALEU leaders, and nuclear‑levered utilities with long‑duration PPAs, using any spot softness as an opportunity rather than a thesis break.

SEQH Capital Research lens

From an SEQH standpoint, today’s backdrop supports a barbell between structural growth (AI, semis, nuclear, grid) and resilient cash‑flow compounders, funded in part by trimming crowded, long‑duration growth where positioning and valuations remain stretched. Nuclear and uranium remain among the highest‑conviction secular themes: a consolidating but elevated uranium tape, a tightening term market, and explicit “critical mineral” status align with a multi‑year capex and contract‑cycle tailwind for the fuel‑cycle value chain.

Tactically, the positive futures tone argues for monitoring follow‑through in high‑beta and thematic names into the open, while staying alert to any intraday macro surprises or Fed commentary that could re‑price 2026 cuts and growth expectations. For SEQH portfolios, the preferred approach into today’s session is disciplined participation in the risk‑on move, adding selectively to core structural themes on pullbacks, rather than chasing index‑level strength at year‑end.