Market Brief

11/26/25

• SEQH CAPITAL PARTNERS RESEARCH
  MARKET TEARSHEET | Wednesday, November 26, 2025

  MARKETS AT A GLANCE

  Futures & Overnight Action

  • Dow Jones futures +0.2% | S&P 500 futures +0.3% | Nasdaq-100 futures +0.4% ​

  • Fourth consecutive day of gains heading into Thanksgiving holiday​

  • Markets closed Thursday; equity early close Friday at 1 PM ET​

  • S&P 500 at 6,765.88 (+0.91% Tuesday); Nasdaq +0.67%​

  Rate Cut Catalyst

  • Market-implied probability of a 25 bps cut at the December FOMC meeting near 85%, up sharply from roughly 40% a week ago​

  • 10-year Treasury yield around 4.00%, near a one‑month low as easing bets build​

  • Recent Fed communication acknowledges cooling labor market and moderating inflation, keeping cuts “on the table” for December​

  EARNINGS WINNERS | Tuesday Close

  Best Buy (BBY) - Beat & Raise

  • Q3 EPS: $1.40 (adj.) vs. $1.31 consensus; revenue ~$9.7B, both ahead of expectations​

  • Comparable sales grew about 2.7%, the strongest comp performance in several years​

  • Management raised FY26 revenue guidance and reaffirmed capital return, supporting the post‑print stock move higher​

  Dell Technologies (DELL) - AI Infrastructure Engine

  • EPS beat as net income rose more than 30% YoY; revenue modestly below Street but with strong mix toward AI‑related infrastructure​

  • Company disclosed roughly $12B+ in quarterly AI server orders and tens of billions YTD, underscoring durable demand into 2026​

  • Guidance points to accelerating earnings power into next year as AI systems become a larger share of the portfolio​

  Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) - High‑Beta Consumer Winner

  • Stock spiked over 30% after a sizable Q3 beat and raised outlook, with strength in both the Abercrombie and Hollister brands​

  • Management commentary highlighted solid early‑season holiday demand and improved margin execution​

  MACRO TAILWINDS AND HEADWINDS

  Tailwinds

  • Fed expectations: futures and swaps now lean heavily toward at least one rate cut in December as inflation cools and growth moderates​

  • Retail and consumer‑adjacent earnings (e.g., Best Buy, several discretionary names) point to more resilient spending than sentiment alone would imply heading into the holidays​

  • AI investment cycle: hyperscaler and enterprise capex into AI infrastructure remains robust, with Dell and other suppliers citing strong multi‑year pipelines​

  • Alphabet approaching a $4T market cap reflects renewed conviction in its AI roadmap and monetization potential across cloud and ads​

  Headwinds

  • Consumer confidence (Conference Board) dropped sharply in November to one of the weakest readings since spring, with expectations deep in “recession‑risk” territory​

  • Survey data show households increasingly worried about future income and employment conditions, which can cap multiples if hard data start to follow​

  • Progress toward a Ukraine‑Russia peace framework has added downside pressure to crude, raising the risk of further price declines if sanctions relief accelerates supply expectations​

  • Holiday‑week liquidity is thin, making index and single‑name moves more sensitive to incremental news or order‑flow imbalances​

  TECHNICALS AND INDEX LEVELS

  S&P 500 - 6,765.88

  • Short‑term resistance sits in the 6,800–6,850 band, which aligns with recent local highs flagged in technical work from multiple independent desks​

  • First support is near 6,660, with a stronger zone closer to 6,550–6,560 where prior pullbacks have stalled in recent weeks​

  • A decisive weekly close above the 6,800 area would keep the door open to a run toward the 6,900–7,000 region into year‑end if macro data do not surprise negatively​

  Volatility and Sentiment

  • VIX trades in the high‑teens after retreating from the mid‑20s, indicating volatility has compressed meaningfully from recent stress levels​

  • Broader sentiment gauges, including aggregate equity investor surveys and “fear and greed” style composites, have recovered from extreme pessimism but are not yet euphoric, allowing room for positioning to normalize further.
    
    CURATED NEAR‑TERM OPPORTUNITIES

    Alphabet (GOOGL)

    • Market value is closing in on the $4T mark as the stock re‑rates on stronger AI credibility and improving ad trends​

    • Recent analysis highlights Google’s AI model performance and cloud progress as key reasons why it could be the next mega‑cap to firmly enter a higher valuation tier​

    • From a positioning angle, flows tied to benchmark and factor indices can provide incremental support as market cap milestones are approached and crossed​

    Nvidia (NVDA)

    • Despite short‑term rotation, external technical work continues to flag the stock in a broader uptrend, with pullbacks into well‑defined support zones still viewed constructively​

    • Fundamental commentary from independent research reiterates that the multi‑year AI hardware cycle remains far from saturated, with data center demand still growing from a high base​

    Dell Technologies (DELL)

    • Third‑party earnings analyses emphasize the scale and duration of Dell’s AI‑server and storage opportunity, as evidenced by the surge in related orders and the outlook revision​

    • The mix shift toward higher‑margin, AI‑linked infrastructure is a key driver of the company’s earnings trajectory in 2026 and beyond​

    Best Buy (BBY)

    • Multiple outlets note that Best Buy’s latest report points to stabilization in consumer tech spending, with guidance and commentary implying a healthier backdrop than earlier feared​

    • The company is positioned to benefit from overlapping device cycles and holiday‑season demand, which could extend the post‑earnings move if execution is maintained​

    EARNINGS AND MACRO CALENDAR (REMAINDER OF WEEK)

    • Near‑term earnings focus includes additional names in industrials, tech‑adjacent hardware, and niche energy/nuclear segments, which will help refine views on capex and cyclical exposure into 2026​

    • On the macro side, the upcoming batch of labor‑market data and updated inflation readings remain critical inputs for the Fed’s December decision and the path of policy in 2026​

    • Weekly jobless claims and related indicators continue to show a cooling but not collapsing labor market, supporting the narrative of a gradual rather than abrupt slowdown for now​

    COMMODITIES, FX, AND CRYPTO

    • Crude oil trades near recent lows as markets incorporate rising odds of a de‑escalation and possible peace framework in Eastern Europe, which would alter medium‑term supply assumptions​

    • Gold is hovering close to a short‑term high, supported by lower real yields and a softer dollar as investors price in a more accommodative Fed path into next year​

    • The broad U.S. dollar index has drifted lower from recent peaks, reflecting the shift in relative rate expectations​

    • Bitcoin is trading well below its recent all‑time high after several weeks of drawdown, with current levels lining up with widely watched technical support and resistance bands in external crypto analyses​

    RISK FACTORS TO MONITOR

    • Holiday‑period liquidity: thinned out order books can exaggerate reactions to incremental news, particularly in high‑beta sectors and single names with strong positioning​

    • Ukraine headlines: any confirmation, delay, or reversal of the emerging peace narrative can quickly reprice energy and related equities​

    • Consumer behavior: early reads on Black Friday and Cyber Monday will give a high‑frequency signal on the true strength of the U.S. consumer into year‑end​

    • Policy path: the December Fed meeting remains the key near‑term macro event, with markets exposed to surprise both on the magnitude and the communication around future cuts.