Market Brief + Model Portfolio Risk Assessment

Nov 13, 2025

∙ Paid

Market Tear Sheet
Date: Thursday, November 13, 2025

Market Overview

Shutdown Overhang Lifted: U.S. equities stabilized after President Trump signed a 43-day shutdown resolution. S&P 500 futures +0.10%, Dow +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.17%.
Major Indices: Dow closes record 48,051 (+0.7%), S&P 500 at 6,851 (+0.06%), Nasdaq at 23,468 (-0.25%).
Volatility: VIX 17.51, up marginally yet well below panic levels, supporting moderate risk appetite.

S&P 500 Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: 6,850-6,860 (primary gamma level)
- Support: 6,700 (50-day MA), 6,550-6,500 (secondary base)
- Momentum: RSI 69.5 (approaching overbought), MACD positive
Rotation: Defensives (Healthcare, Utilities, Energy) outperform Tech as managers rebalance.
Dow Leadership: Financials, healthcare, and energy stocks drive new highs, tech remains pressured on valuation and China export controls.

Rates & Fed:
- Prob. December rate cut falls to 63% (was 92% month ago).
- Fed Funds: 3.75%-4.00%.
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.08%, curve normalizing (10Y-2Y spread +0.52%).
Inflation: Headline CPI tracks at 3.0% YoY; Core CPI 2.97% (Cleveland Fed Nov Nowcast).
Data Blockages: October employment, CPI, and PCE delayed by shutdown; releases expected within days.
Commodities:
- Oil: WTI $58.33, Brent $62.51.
- Gold: $4,210/oz, +7% in five sessions, supported by central bank demand.
- Natural Gas: $4.52 (+4.13%), secular demand for AI/data center power.
- USD Index: 99.57 (+0.20%), down 6.42% YTD.
Bitcoin: $101,843 (-1.4% in 24h), liquidity and SEC ETF delays weigh.

Disney (DIS) Reports Today:
- Consensus: EPS $1.03, Rev $22.76B. Key: streaming profitability, parks, YouTube TV dispute ($30M/week loss).
- Analyst targets steady margin and sub growth (PT $129).
JD.com (JD) Q3:
- Net profit -55% YoY to $742M, revenue +14.9% to $42B, beats. Active customers >700M.
- Stock up 4.2% premarket, results deemed “better than feared.”
Upgrades / Downgrades (Selected):
- AT&T upgraded to Overweight, $30 PT; Sea Ltd to Buy, $170 PT; Snowflake PT raised to $312; Fortinet cut to Neutral, $86 PT; Beyond Meat target slashed to $1.
Earnings Beat Rate: Q3 S&P 500 beat rate >80%; sector growth led by Tech (+27% YoY), pace 2nd-highest since 2020.

Top Gainers:
- McGraw Hill: +22.7%
- On Holding: +20.5%
- Advanced Micro Devices: +7.8% (see Stock Idea).
- Oklo Inc.: +10.4%, Nuclear AI-centric.
Top Decliners:
- DoorDash: -5.9%
- Warner Bros Discovery: -5.8%
- Dollar Tree: -5.5%
- PayPal: -5.4%

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

Price: $258.89
Fair Value Est.: $391 (34% upside).
Catalyst: AI/data center growth, edge partnerships, technical break above resistance.
Idea: BUY, 12mo PT $325.

Sector Allocation: Overweight Healthcare, Energy, Financials, Gold; Underweight Tech/Consumer Discretionary.
Portfolio Guidance: 60% equities / 30% fixed income / 10% alternatives.
Week Themes: Watch resumed release of delayed gov’t data, defensive leadership, continued AI/infra demand, seasonal trends favor year-end rally.
Risks: Fed uncertainty, data backlog, potential Q1 shutdown repeat, tech sector drawdown.

MODEL PORTFOLIO PRE-MARKET RISK ASSESSMENT: