Market Brief + Model Portfolio Risk Assessment

Nov 06, 2025

∙ Paid

Daily Market Tear Sheet - November 6, 2025

Global Equities: S&P 500 futures flat, Nasdaq -0.4%, Dow -0.2%; volatility remains elevated after AI-driven pullbacks and Wednesday recovery.
Core Theme: Market re-pricing risk amid valuation concerns in AI/tech and major policy uncertainty (Trump tariffs Supreme Court hearing, government shutdown).
Volatility: VIX at 19.24, trending lower but above long-term median, indicating persistent caution.
Major Catalysts: Tesla $1T pay vote today, Supreme Court skepticism on Trump tariffs, continued government shutdown drag, and hot earnings calendar.
Earnings: Key print drops, AMD (record Q3, stock -2-5% on margins), Palantir (-8% on extreme valuation), COP, CNQ, EOG, DDOG, Airbnb, Warner Bros.

ISM Services (Oct): 52.4 (beat, +2.4 MoM), New Orders at 12-month high; Employment contracts for 5th straight month.
ADP Jobs: +42k in October, surprising beat. Large firms hiring, small business headwinds.
Jobless Claims: Trending to 2-month lows, but BLS blackout due to shutdown; Q4 GDP at risk.
Interest Rates: Fed Funds 3.75–4.00% (recent cut); 10Y Treasury 4.17%, curve remains inverted.
Fed Tone: Powell jawbones against December cut, but market is pricing 65%+ odds.
Shutdown Impact: $7–14B GDP loss, 1.4M workers unpaid, lost federal data transparency.

Key levels: 6,770–6,780 (support), 6,850–6,900 (resistance).
RSI: 51.6 (neutral, potential for further rangebound trading).
Setup: High probability of consolidation 6,700–6,900 (55% odds), risk of downside on tech outsized de-rating.

MMTec (MTC): +627%
RiverNorth Opp Fund (OPP): +410%
Solid Power (SLDPW): +83%
LMNX ETF: +69%
Defiance 2x Long ETF: +69%
Driven by retail flow and leveraged ETFs, do NOT indicate broader trend.

Palantir (PLTR): -8% (valuation collapse, 465x P/E).
AMD: -2-5% post-earnings; despite Q3 beat, operating leverage concerns.
Nvidia (NVDA): -1.8% but YTD +50%, remains AI leader (watch post-earnings range $206–222).

Leaders: Energy, Financials, selective Tech infrastructure.
Laggards: Consumer Discretionary, overvalued Software, Hospitality/Leisure due to shutdown drag.
Commodities:
- WTI crude $60.14 (+0.9%), Brent $63.91.
- Gold $4,008 (+0.8%), Copper $4.99 (YTD +25% surge, cyclical barometer).
Crypto:
- BTC at $103,070 (recovered from sub-$100k), watch for volatility after worst week since March.

AI Tech Valuation: Market shifting from top-line obsessions to quality-of-earnings scrutiny. High-multiple and crowd favorites vulnerable (PLTR, AMD).
Shutdown: Prolonged closures risk further GDP drag, consumer confidence slippage, and continued poor data visibility.
Tariff Uncertainty: Supreme Court appears ready to strike Trump’s tariff powers; policy volatility looms.
Fed Policy: Market wants rate cuts, FOMC signals patience, watch 10Y yield and curve for signals of risk-off or recovery.

ConocoPhillips (COP), EOG, CNQ

Value rotation as Energy sector outperforms on OPEC+ supply strategy, strong nat gas rally (+60% YTD), and inflation hedge.
Q3 earnings today; tactical opportunity from inventory-related dips, Fed support cycle, and macro resilience.
Monitor post-earnings price action for signal to add or trim.

Longs: Energy leaders (COP, EOG), quality cyclicals, bank dividend growth.
Active Trades: S&P range 6,770/6,900, NVDA ahead of Blackwell launch and Nov 19th print.
Hedges: PLTR tactical shorts on any bounce, bitcoin below $100k, add put spreads on high-multiple software.
Cash: Keep 12–18% for tactical entries during high-vol weeks.

MODEL PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT

Risk Desk – 06 Nov 2025 06:38 AM EST

21-day parametric VaR, % on NAV