Market Brief + Model Portfolio Risk Assessment
11/11/25
November 11, 2025 – Tuesday | Veterans Day
Macro Market Snapshot
Commentary:
Monday rebound powered by Senate shutdown bill passage; data blackout continues pending House resolution.
Nasdaq logged best day since May (+2.27%), led by AI; futures soft premarket Tuesday as traders book profits.
VIX retreated sharply; put/call at 1.07 (neutral risk appetite).
Asset & Rate Dashboard
Sector Leaders & Laggards (Monday)
Technology: +2.3% (NVDA +5.8%, Alphabet +4.0%, PLTR +8.8%)
Financials: Positive - Shutdown optimism
Energy: Negative - Oil soft, sector underperforms
Healthcare: Mixed, insurers down 5–8% on ACA risk
Consumer Disc.: Positive, retail resilient
Economic & Policy Update
FOMC remains divided. Next cut expected December pending data post-shutdown. GDP upgraded to 1.5% 2025 (Nuveen), but forward risk focus on consumer and labor softening.
Earnings Calendar (This Week)
Technicals - SPX, NDX, DJIA
S&P 500:
Support: 6,770–6,780
Resistance: 6,850–6,900
50D MA: 6,695
Nasdaq 100:
Support: 23,100
Resistance: 23,350
Dow Jones:
Support: 46,400–650
Resistance: 47,450
Probability favors sideways 6,700–6,900 consolidation. VIX retreated, risk appetite reviving, but high-impact events (shutdown, delayed data) keep caution.
Featured Stock Idea - Nvidia (NVDA)
Close: $199.05
YTD: +125%
Rating: Strong Buy (45 Analyst Consensus)
Catalysts: November 19 earnings, Blackwell GPU release, AI Cycle
Risks: Elevated valuation (56x PE), Softbank exit, sector concentration
Nvidia led Monday’s rally (+5.8%, accounted for 25%+ of whole SPX move). Remains AI infrastructure leader; use volatility to scale positions (ideal entry: $180–190).
Portfolio Positioning - SEQH Capital Tactical Playbook
AI/Tech (NVDA, AMD, GOOGL): Accumulate on weakness; 25–30% allocation
Financials/Industrials: Shift in on shutdown resolution
Hedge: SPY Dec 670 put options, VIX Dec 20 calls (1–2% exposure)
Cash: 15–20% reserve for buy-the-dip
Week-Ahead Risk Assessment
Shutdown Saga: Senate passed, House pending - Majority bias is resolution by Friday
Fed Cut Odds: 64% December; FOMC split, watching jobs
Labor/Consumer Data: UMich sentiment at low, alternative data mixed
Technical Risks: Bull case holds above SPX 6,700, bear trap if breaches; AI sector froth possible
Strategic Outlook
SEQH Capital recommends disciplined exposure to quality growth and cyclicals, tactical hedges for volatility spikes, and cash management as shutdown/data regime resolves. Watch Nvidia earnings (Nov 19) and FOMC (Dec 9–10) for inflection points.
MODEL PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT:
