Market Brief + Model Portfolio Risk Assessment
11/3/25
SEQH CAPITAL PARTNERS—TEAR SHEET
Market Intelligence: Week of November 3, 2025
Macro Dashboard
*Approximate data
Key Earnings & Analyst Moves
Palantir (PLTR): Reports today. Expectations: Q3 revenue $1.09B (+50.5% YoY), Adj. EPS $0.17 (+70%). Last 8 quarters above est.; trading 105x sales, market cap ~$450B. Only 4/21 analysts “Strong Buy”, consensus PT $159 (-19% risk).
AMD: Q3 earnings Tuesday, implied move 8–10%. Consensus $1.17 EPS (+143% YoY), revenue $8.73B. 74% analysts “Buy”; BofA PT $300.
Uber: Technically constructive, defending 50-day MA, upside PT $109 in next month.
Sector Upgrades: Apple (GS to $320), Roblox (GS to Buy/$180), Core Scientific (Outperform/$34).
ETF/Fund Flows: $26.7B positive for week ended Oct 22, led by $43.5B ETFs offsetting $16.8B active outflows. Equity funds -$19.5B, taxable bonds +$2.4B.
Event Risk & Macro Data
Fed (FOMC): Cut rates 25bps (target: 3.75–4.00%), QT ends Dec 1. Powell suggested December cut “not foregone”; hike probability drops to 67% from 91%.
US-China Trade: “Historic” agreement, China pauses rare earth export controls, major soybean buys; US drops 100% tariff threat, lowers import rate to 47%.
Government Shut: Longest in history, delays key jobs data; traders focus on Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls.
ISM Manufacturing: Oct consensus 49.5 (last: 49.1, sept contraction); Services PMI Wednesday. Manufacturing at longest contraction since 2009.
Consumer Sentiment: 53.6 (Oct), lowest in 5 months. Expectations 50.3, inflation 1Y 4.6%, 5Y 3.9%.
Housing: Existing sales +1.5% MoM (annual pace: 4.06m). Median price $415,200 (+2.1% YoY, 27-consecutive increases).
Sector Trends: Tech leadership sustained (31.6% S&P weight), financials/consumer discretionary rotation. Energy lagging (-13% 6M), avoid until WTI >$65.
Technical Market Playbook
S&P 500: Next resistance: 6,880/6,920/7,000. Major support: 6,800/6,750–6,764.
RSI: 69.6 (approaching overbought, not extended).
MACD: +25.6, bullish cross intact.
Watch: Possible distribution/mean reversion near 7,000, weekly close above 6,800 remains bullish.
Tesla (TSLA): Bullish consolidation above $450; buy >$470 with $500–$510 short-term target.
PLTR: Earnings event risk (small sizing), stop-loss $175, high conviction upside/downside.
Gold Miners (GDX): Oversold bounce play, buy on $31 reclaim, stop $28.5, target $34–$35.
Energy: Stay neutral/underweight, needs structural breakout; avoid until crude stabilizes.
Calendar: Key Week Events
Mon: PLTR, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber earnings; ISM Mfg PMI (10am).
Tue: AMD, Arista, Qualcomm, SMCI; Factory Orders.
Wed: Airbnb, Block, DoorDash, Moderna; ADP jobs, ISM Services.
Thu: BoE rate decision; Productivity/Costs.
Fri: Michigan Sentiment (10am); Constellation/Duke/Franklin earnings.
Strategic Positioning
Core: Mega-cap tech (Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Microsoft). Quality growth in health, finance (UNH, JPM). Defensive utilities (NEE, DUK).
Tactical: Small, risk-defined trades in earnings volatility (PLTR, AMD). Momentum play in breakout setups (TSLA, AMZN). Contrarian bounce (GDX, select energy).
Hedge: 15% cash, VIX call spreads, inverse SPY/QQQ for risk control.
Summary:
Market sentiment strong, S&P near highs; bullish base case 7,100–7,200 by year-end (5% upside). Risks: stretched valuations (28x fwd EPS), low volatility, prolonged shutdown, weak consumer/factory data. Conviction: tactical longs with risk discipline, keep hedges and cash ready if momentum stalls or macro cracks widen.
MODEL PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT (AM)
Risk Desk – 03 Nov 2025 06:38 AM EST (Monday pre-open)
21-day parametric VaR, % on NAV
