Market Brief + Model Portfolio Risk Assessment

Nov 10, 2025

∙ Paid

SEQH CAPITAL PARTNERS RESEARCH

Government Shutdown Nears End: Senate advanced funding bill; 87% odds for resolution this week. Expect data releases (CPI, PPI, retail sales) to resume, prompting potential short-term risk-on rally.
Fed Rate Cut Odds: Markets price 65% chance of 25bp cut in December amid softer labor data and core CPI tracking near 3.0%.
Tech Volatility/AI Cloud Boom: Nasdaq recently down 3% (worst week since April), now rebounding premarket as AI/semis recover from oversold levels. Breadth remains narrow—top 10 S&P names now >42% of index.
Rotation to Defensives: Flows into Utilities, Healthcare as tech valuation/momentum cracks. Small-cap (Russell 2000) outperforming YTD but risk remains due to unprofitable names‘ heavy rally.
Key Risks: SCOTUS ruling on Trump tariffs, China macro misses, and market breadth breakdown remain principal overhangs.

This Week Key Earnings:

Monday: Tyson (TSN), Monday.com (MNDY), Howard Hughes (HHH), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Occidental (OXY), CoreWeave (CRWV).
Thursday: Walt Disney (DIS), Applied Materials (AMAT), Alibaba (BABA).
91% S&P 500 reported; 82% beat EPS, 68% beat revenue; Q3 EPS +11.8%, revenue +8.2%.

Key Macro Data (subject to shutdown update):

Tuesday: NFIB Small Biz Optimism, Germany ZEW, China New Loans
Thursday: CPI (Cons. Headline ~2.96%, Core ~3.0%), China Retail/Industrial Output
Friday: US Retail Sales, Business Inventories, PPI

Premarket Price: $190.19 (+6.3% from Friday lows)
Thesis: Oversold rebound after -7% last week; sector fundamentals intact (AI chip demand, hyperscaler orders). CEO: $500B in Blackwell chip orders next 5 quarters.
Technical: Support at $182.72 tested, $195–200 is initial resistance; targeting $220+ on mean reversion.
Risks: Breadth/momentum risk, high valuation, sector rotation out of tech.

Risk-on if shutdown resolved: Tech/AI leaders rebound (NVDA, AMAT, IWM outperform).
Defensive if impasse: Raise XLV/XLP, target yield, and volatility hedges (VIX, QQQ puts).
Event-driven trades: Focus on earnings breakouts (DIS, AMAT, ASTS) and tactical commodity longs (Gold above $4,000).
Stay alert for macro/China shocks, tariff dividend headlines, and market breadth inflections.

MODEL PORTFOLIO RISK ASSESSMENT: