Market Recap 10/30/25

Oct 30, 2025

Daily Tear Sheet: October 29, 2025 | Key Market Updates

U.S. stocks closed mixed. S&P 500 nearly flat (-0.004%, 6,890.59), Dow down (-0.16%, 47,632), Nasdaq set another record (+0.55%, 23,958) led by tech and Nvidia’s surge. Russell 2000 small-cap index lagged, dropping by 0.9%.
Market breadth deteriorated: NYSE decliners outnumbered advancers 2.16-to-1; only 27.7% of stocks advanced. Similar negative trends on the Nasdaq.
Volatility (VIX) rose modestly to 16.92 (+3.05%), reflecting slight elevation in risk premiums but not widespread fear.
Mega-cap tech earnings were mixed:
- Alphabet jumped ~6% after Q3 beat and higher capex guidance.
- Meta fell over 8% post one-time $15.93B tax charge, warned on spending.
- Microsoft slipped 3–4% amid AI-related cost concerns.
Nvidia made history, closing with a $5 trillion+ market cap, the first public company to hit this milestone, up over 50% YTD.

Federal Reserve cut rates 25bps (new target: 3.75–4.00%). Next move unclear, Chair Powell: “December cut not a foregone conclusion,” shifting expectations.
Fed to end quantitative tightening on Dec 1, halting Treasury runoff to cap recent funding market stress and ensure liquidity.
Treasuries sold off sharply:
- 10-year yield spiked to 4.08% (+9bp); curve steepened.
- Repo facility usage hit records; liquidity at center stage again.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) firmed, closing near 99.27. Stronger dollar now a headwind for multinationals and EM.

Crude oil (WTI) rose to $60.48 (+$0.22), aided by a steep 7M-barrel U.S. inventory draw, offsetting bearish supply headlines.
Gold pulled back to $3,966 per oz after early run above $4,000, pressured by hawkish Fed and dollar rally. Still +50% YTD.
Bitcoin fell 2.5–3.8% (to $108k-$110k). October marked the toughest month since 2020, but ETF inflows remain strong. Support near $108k, resistance $115k–117.6k.

Huge U.S. Government Commitment:
Trump administration unveiled a landmark $80 billion plan to accelerate national nuclear reactor rollout, partnering with Fluor, Brookfield, and Westinghouse.
Uranium stocks surged:
- Uranium Energy Corp (UEC): +14%, closing $15.23 amid capital raise for a U.S. uranium plant.
- Cameco (CCJ): Reached new highs, now rated ‘Buy’ by BofA on reactor buildout tailwind.
- Oklo (OKLO): Gained ~3%. Maintains biggest disclosed SMR pipeline (~14 GW); BofA initiated at ‘Buy’ with $92 price target.
- NuScale (SMR), Centrus Energy (LEU): Saw high volume and buying, as U.S. HALEU needs surge.
- BWX Technologies (BWXT): Stable, levered to U.S. Navy and defense.
Sector Outlook: Nuclear gaining from AI/data center power demand, energy security, and decarbonization. IEA expects SMRs to grow to as much as 120 GW global capacity by 2050. Uranium demand poised to double by 2040; SMR market seen 9%+ CAGR.

US–China Breakthrough: Trump and Xi agreed to a one-year tariff rollback (from 57% to 47%), China to resume U.S. soybean buys, and rare earth export restrictions suspended for one year, alleviating strategic supply risks for US tech and energy.
Next-year tension risk: Deal is annual, subject to renegotiation each year.

Sector allocation: Increase exposure to nuclear energy (UEC, CCJ, Oklo, LEU, SMR) as a structural long, given generational policy tailwind.
Defensive positioning: Breadth is deteriorating, rotate partially away from mega-cap tech, add quality industrials, and defensive dividend stocks.
Macro Watch: Rate cut gridlock and QT ending relieve liquidity stress, but risk-off volatility is likely if breadth fails to recover.