Market Recap
12/15/25
SEQH CAPITAL RESEARCH
MARKET RECAP
RESEARCH DESK
15 December, 2025
U.S. equities traded lower on December 15, 2025, in choppy, risk‑selective action as investors continued to de‑risk crowded AI/tech exposure ahead of a data‑heavy week and reassessed the durability of the post‑Fed melt‑up; value, defensives, and real‑asset themes again held up better than high‑multiple growth. Nuclear and uranium‑levered assets remained fundamentally supported by an increasingly aggressive global policy backdrop, including fresh U.S. and Indian pro‑nuclear moves and higher 2026 reactor‑add guidance, against a spot uranium tape that is consolidating in the high‑70s per pound with a modestly improved supply outlook.
Index and factor tape
Major U.S. indices spent the session under pressure as investors positioned ahead of a dense macro calendar, adding to last week’s tech‑led drawdown. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended their recent underperformance versus the Dow, reflecting ongoing rotation away from AI‑heavy megacaps and into more reasonably‑valued cyclicals and defensives. Breadth remained negative, with decliners outpacing advancers on both NYSE and Nasdaq, and the VIX grinding higher into the mid‑teens as investors layered on index hedges rather than engaging in outright de‑risking.
From a factor lens, high‑beta growth and expensive tech continued to lag as the “AI bubble” narrative gained traction, while value, quality balance sheets, and dividend payers outperformed on a relative basis. The dollar value of 2025 buyback announcements has already eclipsed the prior full‑year record, which is providing an important offset to multiple compression at the index level, but is not fully cushioning richly‑valued AI proxies facing downward earnings‑revision risk.
Macro and rates backdrop
The session unfolded against a backdrop of rising Treasury yields after recent Fed commentary pushed back on expectations for an aggressive, linear rate‑cut cycle. Higher long‑end yields, coupled with concerns that easier policy could re‑inflate asset bubbles, reinforced investor skepticism toward crowded growth trades and increased the appeal of real assets and value‑oriented cash‑flow stories, including energy and power. A busy week of economic releases and Fed‑speak kept risk appetite contained, as investors preferred to reduce gross and rotate exposures rather than add directional beta.
Electricity inflation, driven in part by AI‑data‑center demand, remains a central macro theme, with recent work highlighting that power costs are rising faster than headline CPI; this continues to underpin structural interest in baseload generation, including nuclear, as a hedge against long‑term power‑price volatility. Gold hovered near record territory as a defensive macro hedge, further signaling that institutional capital is selectively adding protection and duration hedges even as outright equity positioning remains elevated.
Nuclear policy and reactor pipeline
On the policy side, the nuclear narrative strengthened meaningfully with multiple incremental tailwinds. A new BloombergNEF report projected that the nuclear industry will add about 12 GW of fission capacity in 2026, with 15 reactors slated to come online globally after net capacity actually contracted by roughly 1.1 GW in 2025 as shutdowns outpaced new starts. This step‑function acceleration is driven in part by the planned restart of the Palisades plant in Michigan and a broader pipeline of life‑extension and new‑build projects, albeit with traditional large‑scale reactors still facing multi‑year execution timelines.
Intermediate‑ to long‑term demand visibility continues to improve: the IEA expects global nuclear capacity to increase by at least one‑third by 2035 and potentially to more than 700 GW by 2050 under existing policies, with upside if pledges to triple nuclear capacity by mid‑century are fully executed. At the national level, India tabled a landmark atomic energy bill to end the state monopoly and permit private‑sector nuclear operators, which, if enacted, opens a new growth market for reactor vendors, fuel suppliers, and service providers over the next decade. In the U.S., the Trump administration reiterated its intent to finance up to 10 advanced domestic nuclear projects via a retooled Department of Energy loan program, positioning nuclear as a strategic pillar of energy and national‑security policy.
Uranium fundamentals and pricing
Spot uranium is consolidating in the high‑70s per pound region, with recent prints around 77–78 USD/lb representing a roughly flat to mildly positive month‑on‑month move and a low‑single‑digit gain versus the prior year. The latest tape reflects a partial unwinding of prior supply‑shock risk premia after Kazatomprom reported a 33% year‑on‑year increase in Q3 exports and a 10% rise in total output, and Cameco indicated that it may recover some of the earlier projected shortfall at McArthur River as development delays ease. That improved supply narrative has pushed prices to the lowest level in about two months, but current levels remain well above incentive prices for a large portion of the cost curve and are consistent with a structurally tight mid‑2020s market.
Forward‑looking forecasts remain constructive: a recent sector piece framed a base‑case uranium price band of roughly 95–110 USD/lb by end‑2026, with bull‑case scenarios of 120–135 USD/lb if geopolitical or supply shocks materialize and a low‑probability bear band of 75–85 USD/lb if new supply meaningfully outpaces incremental demand. Against that backdrop, the current high‑70s consolidation looks like a pause within a longer‑duration uptrend, driven by secular demand growth from reactor restarts, new‑build plans, and SMR deployment rather than a cyclical blow‑off.