Market Recap
11/25/25
Market Tear Sheet: November 25, 2025
BROAD MARKET SUMMARY
Indices Close (November 25, 2025)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.4% (+664 pts) | Third consecutive winning session
S&P 500: +0.91% to 6,765.88 | Up 17.0% from Election Day; 1.81% below October 28 record high of 6,890.89
Nasdaq Composite: +0.7% | Recovered from morning weakness on semiconductor pressure
Russell 2000: +2.2% | Small-cap outperformance signals risk-on rotation
Breadth: 40 new 52-week highs (S&P 500) vs. 2 new lows; Nasdaq: 140 highs / 80 lows
Sector Leadership: Communication Services, Healthcare, Materials | Tech lagged on Nvidia weakness
Trading Volume: 18.32B shares (below 20-session avg of 19.94B) | Advancers outpaced decliners 2.3-to-1
Month-to-date November performance saw the S&P 500 down 1.0%, Nasdaq off 3.0%, and Dow down 1.0%.
FEDERAL RESERVE & RATES: DECEMBER CUT NOW 82.9% PRICED
December 9-10 FOMC meeting now carries 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut, up sharply from approximately 42% one week ago. The shift reflects explicit support from Fed Governor Chris Waller, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly’s endorsement of easing citing labor risks, and NY Fed President John Williams’ assessment that labor weakness poses a greater threat than inflation.
Treasury yields declined materially on this backdrop. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.00-4.01%, marking its lowest level in approximately one month. The 30-year yield dropped to 4.657%, down from 4.78% the previous session. This marks the fourth consecutive day of declining yields, the longest streak since September 8, 2025.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: NOVEMBER COLLAPSE
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index tumbled to 88.7 in November versus a 93.4 consensus estimate, representing a month-over-month decline of 6.8 points. This marks the lowest reading since April 2025 and signals deteriorating economic sentiment heading into year-end.
The Expectations Index fell to 63.2, now in its tenth consecutive month below the 80-point recession warning threshold. Only 1% of consumers rated business conditions as “good,” down sharply from 20.7% in October. The 12-month inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. References to the government shutdown emerged as a key driver of pessimism among respondents.
NVIDIA vs. ALPHABET: AI CHIP RIVALRY ESCALATES
Nvidia shares declined 2.5% to 3.0% following a report from The Information that Meta Platforms is negotiating a multi-billion-dollar deployment agreement with Alphabet to integrate tensor processing units (TPUs) into data centers by 2027. Meta may also begin renting TPUs via Google Cloud as early as 2026.
Despite competitive pressure, Wall Street maintains a “Strong Buy” consensus on Nvidia, with the Blackwell and Rubin architecture platforms retaining significant performance advantages over alternatives.
Alphabet rallied to all-time highs, approaching a $4 trillion market capitalization on the strength of the TPU contract momentum. The stock is up 70% year-to-date and signals institutional recognition of the company’s competitive positioning in enterprise AI infrastructure.
NUCLEAR & URANIUM SECTOR: PRONOUNCED BIFURCATION
The nuclear and uranium sector exhibited sharp divergence on November 25, with uranium miners rallying sharply while advanced reactor developers extended their November correction.
Uranium Miners Surge
Denison Mines (DNN) led the sector with a +6.47% gain on exceptionally heavy volume of 54.4 million shares, reflecting renewed investor appetite for Canadian uranium developers. The company recently beat Q3 2025 EPS estimates at $0.01 versus a -$0.02 consensus.
Cameco (CCJ) surged 4.85% despite recent production challenges at McArthur River/Key Lake operations. Q3 2025 uranium segment earnings reached $172 million with $220 million adjusted EBITDA. The company maintains contracts for 28+ million pounds U₃O₈ annually over the next five years. TD Securities recently raised its price target to C$150 from C$142, maintaining a “Buy” rating.
Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC) posted a marginal +0.08% gain on relatively stable technical footing.
Advanced Reactor Developers Extend November Correction
NuScale Power (SMR) fell 6.07% after UBS slashed its price target 47% to $20 from $38 with a neutral rating. Q3 EPS of -$1.85 significantly missed the -$0.11 consensus. The stock has now fallen approximately 55% in November from October highs. Delayed financial disbursements from the ENTRA1 Energy/TVA collaboration weighed on sentiment. The average analyst price target stands at $36.12 with a “Reduce” consensus rating.
Oklo Inc. (OKLO) dropped 4.22% as the stock continues trading well below its 50-day moving average of $124.70. Q3 EPS of -$0.20 missed the -$0.13 estimate. Insider selling intensified with CEO Jacob Dewitte selling 300,000 shares, while insiders offloaded 503,323 shares over the past 90 days. The stock has declined approximately 39% in November.
Nano Nuclear Energy (NNE) was essentially flat at -0.10%, reflecting technical consolidation.
Sector Bifurcation Thesis
The stark divergence reflects institutional capital rotating decisively toward proven uranium producers with existing production profiles while de-risking pre-revenue advanced reactor developers. Key drivers include extended time-to-market (commercialization remains years away), margin compression on valuation multiples as the AI-nuclear trade corrected, and Fluor Corporation’s announced plans to divest its 39% NuScale stake.
Uranium spot prices retreated to $75.85-77 per pound versus October’s 14-month high of $84, reflecting Kazatomprom’s 33% export growth and 10% production increase in Q3. However, long-term fundamentals remain constructive with uranium added to the U.S. USGS 2025 Critical Minerals List and the HALEU market projected to expand from $0.26 billion in 2025 to $6.14 billion by 2035.
COMMODITY MARKETS
Crude oil (WTI January contract) closed at $57.95, down 1.51%, reaching five-week lows on reports that Ukraine accepted the framework of a U.S.-brokered peace deal with Russia. The prospect of lifting Russian oil sanctions signals potential supply additions to an already oversupplied market. The IEA projects a record annual surplus in 2026.
Natural gas futures declined 5.9% on milder winter forecasts and robust U.S. production capacity.
Cryptocurrency markets showed stabilization with Bitcoin trading in the $87,000-88,000 range after an earlier plunge to a seven-month low of $80,524. Ethereum advanced 2.7% to approximately $2,916. The total crypto market cap recovered to $3.1 trillion. Bitcoin remains down approximately 21% month-to-date, marking the worst November performance since 2022.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) softened to 99.945, declining against both the pound and yen.
VOLATILITY & TECHNICAL BACKDROP
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) declined to 19.01-19.12, down 12.4% from the previous session’s 20.52. Despite the near-term moderation, VIX remains elevated at 34.65% above year-ago levels. November volatility ranged from a high of 26.42 on November 20 before moderating on reduced economic uncertainty surrounding the Fed pivot.
FORWARD-LOOKING CATALYSTS & POSITIONING
The FOMC December 9-10 meeting will be the immediate focus with an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut now priced by markets. Black Friday data on November 28 (half-day session) will provide a key retail demand indicator heading into year-end consumption patterns.
In the nuclear sector, expect continued monitoring of Ontario’s $1 billion SMR funding initiative with $2 billion in federal support for 1,200 MW Darlington deployment. Trump administration measures are expected to streamline reactor approvals, strengthen domestic fuel chain resilience, and potentially invoke Defense Production Act authority for nuclear supply security.
The uranium sector presents a significant bifurcation opportunity. The uranium spot price retreat to $75.85-77 per pound creates a potential entry point for established uranium miners with proven production profiles (CCJ, DNN), while pre-revenue advanced reactor developers (SMR, OKLO, NNE) face extended correction pressure ahead of commercialization timelines. Institutional preference for proven producers and existing cash flows over speculative timelines remains evident. Watch OKLO insider selling momentum and SMR’s Fluor divestiture execution as potential capitulation signals.
SEQH Capital Partners Research | November 25, 2025