Market Recap
11/13/25
Market Tear-Sheet | November 13, 2025
Prepared for: Client List and Substack
Market Overview
Macro Backdrop
Markets experienced their sharpest selloff in over a month as increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve commentary slashed odds for a December rate cut, upending earlier optimism following the U.S. government shutdown resolution. The S&P 500 dropped 1.66%, Dow -1.65% (−798 pts), while the Nasdaq underperformed, closing down 2.29% as technology and communication services led the pullback.
Key Macro Developments
Rate cut odds inverted: Probability for December FOMC cut dropped to just 52% (from 96% a month ago), with multiple Fed officials calling for “patience” on easing until inflation shows clear downward momentum.
10-year Treasury: Rose marginally, closing 4.10–4.13% as fixed income markets repriced for fewer near-term cuts.
Volatility: VIX finished at 17.5, up from 17.3 and moving toward recent highs as risk aversion returned.
Sector & Thematic Highlights
Technology Correction Deepens
Semiconductor and AI-exposed equities underperformed. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 3.6%, extending its two-week slide (−24% from highs). Mega-cap tech names led S&P 500 decliners, confirming ongoing unwinding of concentrated leadership.
Communication Services Weakness
Walt Disney (DIS) tumbled 7–8% after Q4 revenue missed and linear TV/film continued to drag despite resilience in streaming and parks.
Financials & Energy Relative Strength
Financials outperformed on rising rate environment, with year-to-date returns above 10%. Energy (XLE +0.3%) was the S&P’s only sector gain, benefiting from tight refining spreads and disciplined producer capex.
Small-Cap & Breadth Trends
Russell 2000 underperformed (−1.3%), with market breadth eroding: only ~49% S&P 500 members closed above their 20-day moving average.
Nuclear & Uranium Spotlight
Short-Term Pressure; Structural Bull Thesis Intact
Oklo (OKLO): Shares declined 8.5% after an analyst downgrade and below-consensus EPS; significant insider selling continues.
Cameco (CCJ): Dropped 7.1% following downgraded sell-side price targets and a disappointing Q3 miss, but doubled its annual dividend.
Nuclear Utilities/OEMs: NuScale (SMR) lost 4.7% despite landmark 6GW TVA deal. Constellation and GE Vernova trade well below recent highs, despite continued strong LT utility procurement flows.
Uranium Spot: Pulled back to $77–78/lb from September highs above $83; near-term volatility attributed to technicals, not demand destruction. Structural supply/demand gap and AI-driven utility appetite remain core to the bullish cycle.
Looking Ahead: Key Catalysts
Macro Events
October PPI & retail sales due Friday, should clarify real-time consumer/inflation trends (data delayed by shutdown).
FOMC members’ scheduled appearances; market highly sensitive to further “higher for longer” rhetoric.
Earnings Watch
Tuesday: Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), Baidu (BIDU)
Wednesday: Nvidia (NVDA), Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW) – acute focus on AI capex pipelines and consumer spending signals.
Market Watchpoints
S&P 500 and Nasdaq look fragile at key technical levels after a sharp one-day reversal.
Breath and leadership risk: Mega-cap weakness continues to raise concerns about underlying market health.
Uranium/Nuclear sector: Watch for stabilization in spot prices and earnings color from sector leaders next week; volatility may present entry points for long-term investors.
Tactical Guidance
Maintain elevated cash/hedge allocations until market breadth and Fed path stabilize.
Favor defensive sectors (financials, select energy, diversified industrials) on relative value.
Nuclear long-term thesis unchanged: Consider using drawdowns in top uranium and nuclear utilities/OEM names for incremental positioning, especially where fundamental supply/demand tailwinds are clear.