Market Recap
12/1/25
SEQH CAPITAL PARTNERS RESEARCH
Daily Market Tear Sheet – December 1, 2025
Macro & Index Snapshot
Major Indices
S&P 500: 6,812.6 (-0.5%); snapped a 5-session winning streak but remains ~1.6% above last Monday’s close and ~1% below late-October highs.
Dow Jones: 47,289 (-0.9%); largest point decline in ~2 weeks, led by cyclical and crypto-adjacent names.
Nasdaq Composite: 23,276 (-0.4%); growth held up better than cyclicals but still faded into the close.
Russell 2000: ~2,469 (-1.2%); small caps underperformed as financial conditions tightened at the margin.
Rates & FX
U.S. 10Y: ~4.10%, +7–8 bps on the day; biggest one-day move since early June, driven by spillover from a Japanese government bond selloff and hawkish BOJ signaling.
2Y UST: ~3.52%, modestly higher; curve steepened as long-end sold off harder.
30Y UST: ~4.75%, +7 bps; reinforces “higher-for-longer at the long end” even as front-end is anchored by cut expectations.
DXY: ~99.2 (-0.3%); the dollar continues to grind lower into year-end as markets lean into 2026 growth and Fed cut narratives.
Fed & Policy Expectations
Futures are pricing ~85–90% odds of a 25 bps cut at the December FOMC, with the market path implying another 1–2 cuts in 2026.
Street commentary (GS, BofA, JPM) has converged around a December cut as the base case, with emphasis on weaker manufacturing, easing inflation, and global growth risk.
Fed is now in blackout; the next critical input for that cut probability is Friday’s delayed September PCE print, followed by ISM Services and labor data.
Key Drivers Today
1. Global Rates Shock & Risk-Off Tone
A sharp move higher in JGB yields (largest 2Y move since 2008) after BOJ Governor Ueda openly flagged a December hike review triggered a global bond selloff and pushed U.S. yields higher.
Higher long-end yields pressured duration-sensitive assets (tech, REITs, growth factor) and weighed on small caps, even as mega-cap secular growth held up relatively better.
Equities sold off into the close as the rates move persisted and liquidity thinned.
2. Crypto Drawdown as Sentiment Drag
Bitcoin dropped >5%, breaking below the mid‑$80Ks, briefly trading closer to $80K before a minor bounce.
This is the steepest monthly dollar decline since the 2021 crypto washout, with November alone seeing a ~$18K price compression.
Crypto-levered equities (MSTR, COIN, miners, high-beta fintech/brokerage) were among the worst performers, reinforcing the “de-risking” tone across speculative pockets.
3. Soft Manufacturing Data, Firm Input Costs
ISM Manufacturing PMI printed ~48.2, missing expectations and marking a ninth consecutive month of contraction.
New orders and employment both remained in contraction, highlighting weak demand and cautious hiring, while prices paid ticked higher, preserving margin pressure for goods producers.
Respondent commentary pointed to persistent tariff/cost overhang and global demand uncertainty, keeping capex intentions subdued.
Commodities & Cross-Asset
Oil
WTI: high‑$50s to ~$60/bbl, +1–1.5%.
Brent: low‑$60s/bbl, +1–1.5%.
OPEC+ reaffirmed its pause on planned production hikes into early 2026, supporting the back end of the curve but not strong enough to drive a risk-on bid in energy equities today.
Gold
Spot gold: ~$4,230–4,250/oz, +0.5% on the day, within reach of all-time highs.
Bid driven by lower dollar, higher macro tail risk premium, and renewed “hedge vs. both crypto and duration” interest.
Gold has significantly outperformed both broad equities and bonds on a 12‑month basis.
Nuclear & Uranium: Sector Focus
Uranium Market & Pricing
Spot uranium is holding around the mid‑$70s per lb (≈$76/lb) after a volatile year in which prices briefly spiked much higher before consolidating.
Structural setup remains the same:
Global reactor demand: ~180M lbs U₃O₈ annually.
Primary mine supply: ~140–150M lbs, with the remainder covered by secondary supplies and inventories.
Implied 30–40M lb structural deficit, underpinning a constructive multi‑year thesis despite near-term volatility.
Kazakhstan (Kazatomprom) has signaled production discipline going into 2026, while various Western policy moves continue to prioritize security of supply and de‑Russianization of the fuel cycle.
Policy, Geopolitics & Supply Chain
Niger’s military government has moved to seize and redirect uranium flows from the Somair mine; France’s Orano has raised safety and contractual concerns around a seized convoy.
This episode reinforces the geopolitical fragility of African supply and pushes utilities to reassess origin risk and diversify toward North American and allied sources.
U.S. and European policy momentum around nuclear remains firmly positive:
U.S. ADVANCE Act and related legislation aim to streamline advanced reactor deployment and support domestic enrichment.
Europe continues to solidify nuclear’s role via taxonomy, capacity payments, and SMR pilot programs.
Nuclear Equities: Today’s Color
Centrus Energy (LEU)
Announced uplist from NYSE American to the NYSE, with trading on the big board to begin December 4.
The move improves index inclusion potential, liquidity, and institutional access at a time when Centrus is ramping domestic HALEU and reconfirming a multi‑billion‑dollar long‑term contract backlog.
Stock has had a high‑beta run YTD; today’s tape saw continued volatility but the uplisting headline is a clear structural positive for the U.S. enrichment story.
Cameco (CCJ)
Remains the large‑cap bellwether in the space, supported by fresh institutional interest (including new sovereign/large fund positions).
Street narrative is focused on:
Visibility from long-term contracting at improved pricing.
Operational leverage as production normalizes at tier‑one assets.
Strategic positioning as Western utilities seek reliable, non‑Russian supply.
Energy Fuels (UUUU)
Continuing to ramp uranium output with 2025 targets in the ~0.7–1.0M lb range and optionality to go higher in outer years.
Well‑positioned as a U.S. onshore producer with both uranium and rare earth exposures; high torque to any U.S. security-of-supply initiatives or further inventory builds.
SMR / Advanced Nuclear Names (SMR, OKLO, others)
NuScale (SMR) traded heavy, down mid‑single digits as part of a broader de‑risking of speculative growth and SMR projects with near-term funding needs.
Oklo (OKLO) remains highly news‑sensitive:
Strategic partnerships around nuclear-powered data centers continue to build the AI-energy narrative.
At the same time, the market is reassessing timelines, regulatory risk, and the potential for AI workloads to become more energy efficient via next-gen chips, which would alter the TAM narrative.
Overall, the SMR sleeve is behaving like high-beta growth: strong long-term optionality but acutely sensitive to rates, equity risk sentiment, and headline risk.
ASP Isotopes (ASPI)
Recent insider selling has added to realized and implied volatility.
The underlying story, advanced isotopes and potential enrichment adjacency, remains early stage and highly binary, but sits squarely in the “critical infrastructure and national security” theme that is attracting specialist capital.
Sector Vehicles
Global X Uranium (URA) and Sprott Uranium Miners (URNM) gave back ground alongside broader risk assets, but both remain very strong on a YTD basis with triple‑digit multi‑year performance since the uranium cycle turned.
Concentration in Cameco and a handful of high‑beta developers magnifies day‑to‑day volatility, but also provides efficient exposure to the underlying structural deficit thesis.
Equities: Leadership & Laggards
Mega-Cap Tech
Apple (AAPL) closed at a new all‑time high, with fresh highs on both an intraday and closing basis, underpinned by ongoing buyback, services monetization, and AI‑adjacent narrative.
Nvidia (NVDA) stabilized and ended modestly higher after early weakness, with multiple sell‑side desks highlighting the stock as “almost historically cheap” on forward multiples relative to its growth profile.
Cyclicals & High Beta
Crypto‑exposed names, speculative growth, and small caps underperformed.
Financials and industrials traded heavy on the combination of higher long rates, softer manufacturing data, and renewed concern that global tightening cycles are not yet fully behind markets.
Setup Into the Rest of the Week
Key Near-Term Catalysts
ISM Services, jobless claims, and, most importantly, September PCE as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Market positioning is now skewed toward a “cut plus growth” soft‑landing narrative; any upside surprise in PCE or downside shock in growth could force a repricing.
Risk Balance
Near-term: rates volatility and crypto liquidation risk are the key swing factors for equities.
Medium-term: the structural cases for AI infrastructure, decarbonization, and nuclear/uranium remain intact, but are now trading through a more volatile macro and rates backdrop.
SEQH View – Working Takeaways
Macro: Today’s move looks like a rates- and crypto-driven de‑risking day, not yet a regime change. The S&P remains in an uptrend, but leadership is narrowing again toward quality large-cap growth.
Nuclear/Uranium: Fundamental thesis remains strong: structural supply deficit, policy tailwinds, and increasing energy security focus. Centrus uplisting and Niger tensions both reinforce the strategic value of Western enrichment and diversified supply.
Positioning Implication:
Favor high‑quality nuclear fuel cycle names (Cameco, Centrus, select producers) over the most speculative SMR developers on days when rates and liquidity tighten.
Use volatility in uranium ETFs and core names to gradually build or add, rather than chase strength, given the macro tape.
Stay valuation‑disciplined even in AI‑nuclear adjacency narratives; focus on projects with realistic timelines, credible partners, and clear regulatory paths.
Prepared by SEQH Capital Partners Research – December 1, 2025