Market Recap
11/21/25
SEQH Capital Partners Research
Market Tearsheet: November 21, 2025
Market Overview
Dow Jones: +493 pts (+1.1%) | S&P 500: +0.98% | Nasdaq: +0.88%
All major indices closed higher Friday, yet all logged their worst week since April (S&P 500 -1.95%, Nasdaq -2.74% weekly).
Small caps led by Russell 2000 (+2.8%), driven by aggressive rotation into rate-sensitive stocks following dovish Fed commentary.
NY Fed President Williams signaled an openness to imminent rate cuts.
Treasury yields fell: 10-yr closed 4.05% (down from 4.10%), offering support to risk assets and higher P/E sectors.
Market breadth positive on NYSE (advancers 76% of total); however, 52-week lows continued to outpace highs.
Elevated volatility persists (VIX 23.5); technical breadth remains weak (only 38% of S&P 500 above 50dma).
Nuclear & Uranium Sector Highlights
Nuclear equities showed strong relative performance. Key outperformers on high volume include:
GE Vernova (”top reactor pick”, strong institutional flows)
Emerson Electric (dominant nuclear automation provider, 90% market share in reactor controls)
BWX Technologies (naval/civilian reactor leader)
Oklo, NuScale: leading development-stage SMR firms showing volatility but institutional attention.
NextEra Energy and Constellation Energy: benefiting from nuclear plant restarts and DOE loan funding respectively.
Flowserve: maintains key equipment in 75% of global reactors.
Uranium mining equities:
Cameco (Q3 production +2% YoY, revenue -12.8% YoY, +71% YTD)
Energy Fuels (Q3 uranium sales $72.38/lb, +337% YoY revenue, strong US asset base)
Denison Mines, Uranium Energy, NexGen, Paladin, Yellow Cake: notable YTD gains, each with differentiated project risk.
Uranium spot price: $76.20/lb (Nov. 20), down from one-month high of $82.50; supply risks moderating with exports from Kazatomprom +33% Q3, market steady above marginal project breakevens ($65–75/lb).
Macro & Sentiment
White House considering Nvidia H200 chip sales to China aided late-session tech rebound; tech remains under pressure on AI ROI and regulation concerns.
Bitcoin fell under $80K (30% drop from October highs); crypto-unwind not impacting equity correlation directly.
Sector rotation model: Utilities/Healthcare overbought; Info Tech/Communication oversold - mean-reversion candidates.
Forward Catalysts & Tactical Outlook
December FOMC: ~70% probability of Fed rate cut priced in. Macro risk skewed to policy surprises; stocks sensitive to employment data.
Nuclear-specific: Anticipate licensing decisions for NuScale/Oklo, further DOE SMR funding, state-level nuclear incentives pending in Q1 2026.
Uranium: Kazatomprom Q4 guidance and further supply signals will influence spot price direction.
Upcoming earnings: BWX Tech, Constellation, Emerson (nuclear order flow visibility).
Portfolio tilt: Overweight established nuclear (GE Vernova, Emerson, CEG), selective uranium exposure (Cameco, Energy Fuels), maintain hedges on tech, and trade the rate-sensitive rotation through quality homebuilders and banks.
Portfolio Strategy
Position sizing: cap at 3–4% per equity, given cross-asset volatility.
Hedge via VIX call spreads into Fed risk window; disciplined stop-losses on higher-beta names.
Medium-term conviction: nuclear/uranium offers strong asymmetric return via decarbonization, supply constraint, and favorable policy.