Market Recap
11/26/25
U.S. equities extended their Thanksgiving-week melt-up on Wednesday, with major indexes adding to a three-day winning streak as softer macro data reinforced aggressive Fed rate‑cut pricing and volatility bled lower. Nuclear and uranium‑linked assets continued to benefit from structurally tight fuel markets and policy tailwinds, with select miners and SMR developers trading as high‑beta expressions of the broader “AI power” theme despite near-term chop in the uranium spot curve.
Indexes and macro tape
U.S. index futures pointed higher into the open, building on a Tuesday session where the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 1.4%, the S&P 500 rose roughly 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite added about 0.7%, marking a third straight up day and the S&P’s highest close in about two weeks. By Wednesday morning, the advance was underpinned by December Fed rate‑cut odds approaching roughly 85%, following a run of weaker consumer data and dovish Fed commentary that has pushed front-end yields lower and broadened sector participation beyond mega-cap tech.
Asian risk assets tracked the U.S. higher, with a key MSCI regional gauge up around 1.2% as gains extended across most industry groups, signaling improving global risk sentiment into month‑end. At the factor level, high‑beta and growth cohorts outperformed defensives, while the CBOE Volatility Index slipped below the high‑teens, consistent with a “grind up” environment where dips are being bought but positioning is becoming more extended versus early November.
Sector internals and leadership
Sector breadth remained constructive: on the prior session, nine of eleven S&P sectors finished higher, led by health care and consumer discretionary, with cyclical participation confirming the macro re‑risking beyond narrow AI leadership. Semiconductors remained volatile as Nvidia and AMD faced pressure tied to reports of a deepening Alphabet–Meta AI chip partnership, highlighting a rotation within AI beneficiaries rather than an unwinding of the theme.
Energy remained in focus as investors looked for ways to express both traditional and low‑carbon demand, with nuclear‑linked names and grid‑exposed utilities increasingly framed as “AI infrastructure” plays alongside data center REITs. Rate‑sensitive groups such as utilities and real estate continued to find support from falling yields, though performance dispersion within each bucket remained high, favoring names with clearer earnings visibility into 2026.
Uranium price action and fuel market
Uranium futures hovered in the mid‑ to high‑$70s per pound, near a two‑month low, as an improving supply outlook offset robust long‑term demand expectations from nuclear restarts and SMR deployment. The world’s largest producer Kazatomprom has reported roughly 33% export growth and around a 10% increase in total output, easing earlier concerns tied to guidance for a 2026 production cut and helping cap the upside in near‑dated pricing.
On a one‑month lookback, uranium prices are down just under 2%, and roughly a similar magnitude year‑over‑year, a modest giveback relative to the large multi‑year rally off post‑Fukushima lows. The current consolidation is increasingly being framed as a healthy pause within a structural bull market defined by persistent supply deficits, mine and mill closures, and rising baseload demand from decarbonization policies and AI‑driven electricity load growth.
Uranium and nuclear equities
Listed uranium miners and developers remained a levered play on this backdrop, with the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF recently reporting a net asset value around the mid‑$50s, up over 400% on a cumulative basis since inception, underscoring the magnitude of the cycle already priced into equities. The ETF’s recent daily gains in the low‑single‑digit percent range illustrate how miners can outperform the underlying commodity on positive sentiment days, but also remain vulnerable to any reversal in spot or term contract flows.
Single‑name uranium exposure continued to see event‑driven dispersion: for example, Centrus Energy reported roughly 30% year‑over‑year revenue growth in its most recent quarter on strength in its low-enriched uranium segment, while Uranium Energy is expected to report another quarter where results are heavily influenced by inventory management and lingering toll‑processing revenue rather than steady mine output. Sell‑side coverage remains constructive on select uranium names, with at least one major bank recently lifting its price target on Uranium Energy and reiterating a buy rating, reflecting confidence in the company’s asset base and leverage to any renewed leg higher in uranium prices.
Nuclear power and SMR catalysts
Fund flows and narrative support into nuclear‑themed products have remained strong as 2025 has evolved, with industry observers increasingly referring to nuclear as a standout sector this year given its alignment with bipartisan energy policy, decarbonization goals, and AI‑driven grid demand. ETF strategists highlight that investors are now treating nuclear as a core component of “all‑weather” energy allocations, pairing it with renewables and natural gas rather than viewing it as a niche, high‑beta trade.
On the technology side, small modular reactors (SMRs) remain a key equity story, with players like NuScale Power drawing attention after previously hitting record share price highs before retracing on valuation and execution concerns. Despite near‑term volatility and rich revenue multiples, consensus expectations still embed extremely rapid top‑line growth over the next several years as first‑wave SMR projects advance in markets such as Eastern Europe and the U.S., positioning early leaders as high‑risk, high‑reward beneficiaries of the next phase of nuclear build‑out.
Policy, deals, and forward setup in nuclear
Recent deal flow underscores institutional confidence in nuclear’s role in decarbonization: X‑energy, a private SMR and advanced reactor developer, secured a roughly $700 million package aimed at scaling its technology across the U.S. and U.K., signaling that both governments and strategic partners are prepared to underwrite larger, multi‑project pipelines rather than isolated demonstrations. Market studies cited around that transaction value the global SMR sector at several billion dollars in 2025, with expectations for more than a doubling in market size over the next decade, implying a substantial runway for both listed and private players as regulatory frameworks mature.
From a policy and demand perspective, the conjunction of low‑carbon mandates, data‑center‑driven power demand, and geopolitical risk in uranium‑rich regions continues to support the thesis that nuclear capacity additions will need to accelerate meaningfully to stabilize power markets and meet climate targets. For SEQH Capital Partners Research, this environment favors a barbell within nuclear and uranium: liquid ETF exposure for core cycle risk, complemented by selectively underwritten positions in high‑quality fuel suppliers and SMR developers with visible project pipelines and robust offtake or government‑backed support.