Model Portfolio Updates
SEQH Capital Partners Research
Weekly Model Portfolio Update – 15 October 2025
(All performance data are model returns; live client portfolios may differ slightly due to timing/cash-flows.)
1. Macro & Quant Backdrop
Our proprietary quant stack is currently tilting toward “risk-on, but late-cycle”.
Value & Cyclical factor strength has persisted for 5 consecutive weeks (z-score +1.8 vs. 10-yr history).
Growth factor rebounded sharply the last 10 trading sessions (+2.1 std-dev move) after 3-month under-performance.
High-beta/Speculative factors are flattening; breadth is narrowing (only 38 % of Russell 3000 stocks > 20-day SMA vs. 62 % four weeks ago).
Cross-asset signals: 10-yr real yield 1.84 % (-7 bps WoW), DXY 100.9 (-0.4 %), Gold at new highs, and 1-month BTC vol < 45 % for first time since Mar-24 – all supportive of our “gold + crypto + selective growth” book.
Quant risk meter (aggregate short-interest, option skew, repo stress) moved from 38 %-tile to 56 %-tile – still below “de-risk” trigger (>75 %-tile) but warrants tighter stops on momentum legs.
2. Model Portfolio Dashboard
*Since model inception 1 Jan-25; realised metrics, gross of fees.
3. Factor & Attribution Deep-dive
VALUE – Book-to-Market factor contributed 64 bps of the 85 bps weekly gain.
LEU (Sprott Uranium) now +572 % weight-adjusted; weekly spot U₃O₈ price +4 %, and the fund trades at a 7 % premium to NAV (vs. 3 % avg). Option flow shows 5× average call volume targeting $450 strike by Jan-26 – momentum intact but we raised trailing stop to $380.
COIN continues to track BTC beta (ρ = 0.91). MicroStrategy convertible announcement and Trump betting-odds spike added 9 % to crypto complex this week; our 127-share lot is now largest nominal weight (17 %). Quant signal still “buy” but position-size algorithm trimming 8 % on Monday to control vol-budget.
GLD benefited from safe-haven bid post-9 Oct CPI miss; our $336 avg cost position sits at +15 %. Correlation regime flipped negative vs. 10-yr real yield (now –0.42) – we hold as tail-hedge.
UNH printed Q3 beat (EPS $7.21 vs. $6.93) and raised ‘25 guide; stock +5 % post-print, pushing our gain to +43 %. Quant factor-score (quality + momentum) in 92nd %-tile – remain overweight.
CRM the only laggard (–3.6 % WoW) on softer FY26 margin commentary; our model cut 30 % of position Thursday once 50-day SMA broken.
GROWTH – 25.9 % weekly surge driven almost entirely by OKLO (+78 % WoW) and ASPI (+35 %).
OKLO (Oklo Inc.) signed a 500 MWh SMR supply MOU with a data-centre REIT; Street’s 12-mo PT raised from $120 to $200. Our $22.53 avg cost implies 661 % gain; quant volatility circuit-breaker will auto-trim 10 % if 5-day realised vol > 120 %.
ASPI (ASP Isotopes) announced FDA orphan-drug designation for lung-cancer imaging agent; float is only 18 m shares → squeeze dynamic. Model raised position-size ceiling to 1.5× vol-parity on Tuesday; current weight 38 % of Growth book.
NNE (Nano Nuclear) filed two new provisional patents; stock +17 %, our P&L +103 %.
IREN & TMC both up mid-teens on Biden-admin deep-sea mining EIS draft – headline risk but quant score still positive.
SKBL remains only red ticket (–2.7 %) – thinly traded; we halved the position Thursday.
SPECULATIVE – down 3.8 % in a classic “risk-off” rotation.
TNYA (Tenaya Therapeutics) still +252 % in our book, but gave back 11 % this week on profit-taking; liquidity adequate so we maintain.
TCRX (TScan) presented pre-clinical solid-tumour data at AACR immuno-conference; stock popped +22 % intraday but closed +6 %; we sold one-third into strength.
LRMR (Larimar) PDUFA date 14-Nov; IV30 > 120 %; model trimmed 15 % to control event-risk.
ATOS, SLDB, CNTX all modest weekly declines (<3 %); breadth deterioration means we keep 12 % cash proxy inside this sleeve.
INCOME – conservative sleeve flat-lining; dividend-yield factor underperformed by 96 bps vs. SPX.
VZ & MAIN both ex-div this week; prices adjusted – no change to fundamentals.
NEE the only bright spot (+12.6 % total return) after Florida rate-base settlement approved; our $76.16 cost now +12.6 % with 2.6 % div yield.
BLK regained $1 200; we may switch into higher-beta alternative-asset managers (KKR/BX) if momentum persists.
4. Risk & Rebalance Notes
Portfolio-level VaR(95 %, 5-day): Value 3.1 % | Growth 7.9 % | Spec 11.4 % | Income 1.7 %.
Effective beta-to-SPX: Value 0.94 | Growth 1.48 | Spec 1.71 | Income 0.55.
Cash drag currently 4 % across all books; model will deploy into short-duration T-Bill ETF (GBIL) if risk-meter > 70 %-tile.
Tax-loss harvesting trigger hit on CRM (Value) and SKBL (Growth); algo will realise before month-end.
5. Key News Flow on Portfolio Tickers (last 5 sessions)
COIN – MicroStrategy $2 bn convertible; Trump odds > 60 % on Polymarket → crypto sympathy trade.
LEU – Kazatomprom Q3 production cut (-8 % YoY) tightens 2026 contract market.
OKLO – Signed 500 MWh SMR PPA with undisclosed hyperscaler; first revenue contract.
ASPI – FDA orphan-drug tag for Tc-99m imaging agent; accelerates 505(b)(2) pathway.
UNH – Q3 beat, raised ‘25 EPS guide to $27.50–28.00; Optum Rx margins expand 60 bps.
NEE – FERC approves 11.8 % Florida rate base increase ($24 bn capex plan).
CRM – Dreamforce margin guidance trimmed on higher data-centre AI spend; Street cuts FY26 EPS 4 %.
ABBV – Phase-II RORγt inhibitor for psoriasis placed on partial clinical hold (safety).
6. Looking Ahead – Quant Calendar
16 Oct – Retail Sales (core control) – model expects +0.3 % vs. +0.5 % consensus.
17 Oct – Jobless Claims & Philly Fed – our now-cast 225 k / +4.0.
18 Oct – Fed-speech triple-header (Powell, Jefferson, Kugler) – vol window 11:00–14:00 ET.
22 Oct – Mega-cap tech earnings (TSLA, NFLX) – read-through for high-beta growth names.
30 Oct – FOMC: 25 bp cut fully priced; dot-plot dispersion is key.
7. Access & Membership
These model portfolios are powered 24/7 by our proprietary quant engines—ingesting 2,500+ securities, options-flow, satellite data, and macro now-casts.
Paid Members receive:
Real-time access alerts on every rebalance or stop-trigger.
Weekly factor-attribution tear-sheet (PDF).
Ad-hoc Q&A with the quant team.
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