Morning Brief 9/30/25

Sep 30, 2025

∙ Paid

MARKET DIGEST
Overnight Developments

Equity-index futures indicate a flat-to-lower open: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 e-minus –0.15 %, Dow –0.11 %.
10-year Treasury yield declines 3 bp to 3.72 %; swap markets price 68 % probability of a 25 bp cut at the 7 November FOMC.
Dollar Index (DXY) –0.2 % to 100.95; euro back above 1.1150, yen below 143.
Commodities: WTI crude +0.4 % to $68.30, gold steady at $2,682, copper –0.6 %.
Investment-grade primary priced $6 bn across four issuers; spreads 2-3 bp tighter. High-yield ETFs edge +0.1 % NAV.
House leadership delayed the stop-gap funding vote; shutdown probability for 1 October rises to ~35 %.
Global equities: Nikkei –0.3 %, Hang Seng +0.7 %, Euro Stoxx 50 –0.1 %.

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