NBIS Investment Tear Sheet

INSTITUTIONAL/CLIENT COMMUNICATIONS

Nebius Group (NBIS) – SEQH Capital Partners
Tear-Sheet | 22 Oct 2025 | 19:00 ET | Price: $97.87 | 12-mo Target: $150 (+53 %)

1. Executive Bullet
   • NBIS is the re-listed, U.S.-domiciled cloud-infrastructure spin-out of Yandex NV, now a pure-play AI/ML compute provider with 225 MW of Tier-III data-center capacity across Finland, Minsk and Kazakhstan and a 1.2 GW green-field pipeline.
   • The Street still treats the company as the old “Yandex” – a Russian asset – creating a 40 % sovereign-discount to U.S. comps even though 94 % of 2025E revenue is USD/EUR, 100 % of assets are NATO-jurisdiction and the shareholder register is >75 % U.S./EU institution

   s.
   • Revenue inflection is under-way: 3Q25 guide (report 5 Nov) implies >$90 m run-rate vs. $117 m for all-2024. We model 130 % CAGR 2024-27E to $620 m – still only 7 % of our projected EMEA GPU-as-a-Service TAM by 2027.
   • Gross margin has already rebounded to 62 % in 2Q25 (vs. 37.5 % FY24) on 80 %+ utilisation of the Finland pod (H100/H200). Every 5-point improvement in utilisation adds ~$0.70 to EPS.
   • Balance-sheet is under-levered: net cash $1.1 bn (22 % of market cap) post the $650 m July secondary. Management has authorised a $500 m NVDA purchase order for B200/B300 blades for 1H26 delivery – securing GPU allocation while peers are on 40-week lead-times.
   • We value NBIS on a 50/50 blend of: (i) 12× 2026E EV/EBITDA (U.S. cloud infra median) and (ii) DCF (WACC 9 %, terminal 4 %). Both methods yield ~$150/share; re-rating catalysts are (a) 3Q25 print, (b) 1 GW Finland campus FID in Dec-25 and (c) inclusion in S&P Mid-Cap 400 (index addition could add $1.2 bn of forced buying, >25 % of free-float).

2. Model Snapshot (USD m, except per-share)