Nuclear Energy Watchlist Round-up

SEQH Capital Partners Research
U.S. Nuclear Watchlist Round-up
19 Oct 2025
(Prices $, volume = 3-session avg; % = vs. 10-day m.a.)

1. NKLR – newly-added micro SMR design-house
   Friday +6.1 % on 3.6 M sh (270 % of 10-d avg) after DOE released draft guidance that explicitly classifies 15 MWe transportable reactors as “critical infrastructure,” making them eligible for 30 % ITC plus accelerated depreciation. NKLR’s 15 MWe helium-cooled unit is the only design in that size class with an active NRC pre-application meeting scheduled (Q1-26). Street model currently shows zero revenue until 2029; our DCF moves from $9 to $14 if the draft is finalized this quarter. Risk: cash 7 qtrs at burn, no lead customer yet.
   Action: watch for customer MOU (data-center or DoD) – would rerate >$20.

2. OKLO – fast-spectrum SMR + fuel recycling SPAC
   +1.2 % Friday but –18 % since 30-Sep when NRC sent 15 additional RAI on its combined license application (CLA). New timeline: final safety evaluation slipped from Aug-26 to mid-27, pushing first power to 2030 vs. 2028 guidance. Management guided cash runway to Q2-27 even after $300 m PIPE; Street now models 25 % dilution. Upside: DoD “Project Pele” down-select (OKLO vs. BWXT) expected Dec-25 – win would secure $1.2 b revenue floor.
   Positioning: gamma squeeze risk – 22 % of float short, days-to-cover 4.1.

3. SMR – NuScale equity
   –5.5 % Friday, –31 % since 23-Sep when Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) formally reduced its Carbon Free Power Project from 6 modules to 2 (462 MWe → 154 MWe), cutting NuScale’s guaranteed cash flow by ~$2.2 b NPV. Stock now trades 1.2× 2026e revenue vs. 3× in Aug. Watch 5-Nov: DoE loan-closing deadline; if waived, re-contracting risk drops.
   Quant: 30 % of float is short borrow fee 9 % – any positive headline moves this 15 % intraday.

4. CCJ – western uranium bellwether
   –4.2 % Friday on no news; spot U₃O₈ down $2 to $79/lb. Company guided 2025 production 16.2 Mlb (vs. 14.9 Mlb 2024) but warned of 0.8 Mlb outage risk at Cigar Lake if labor negotiations fail 31-Oct. Our sensitivity: every 1 Mlb outage = $0.23 EPS at $80/lb. Long-term contracting signal: China CNNC rumored tender (2–3 Mlb/y x 5 yrs) – award would set new ceiling (>$90/lb).
   Flow: ETF URNM saw $87 m outflow last week; CCJ 19 % of basket –