SEQH Capital Research · Trading & Research Desk
Edition 001 · Thursday, September 24, 2026 · Post-close
Prices as of 4:00 PM ET close unless stamped otherwise.
The Tape in 60 Seconds
Bonds set the terms; the physical uranium market kept tightening anyway.
The 10-year Treasury held near 5.10%, its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year printed 5.43%, its highest since 2004. Fed speakers kept an October hike live, and CME FedWatch put the odds at 69%. A Reuters report that U.S. and Iranian negotiators are working on a phased deal to reopen Hormuz pulled indexes off their lows. The S&P 500 closed −0.02%, the Nasdaq +0.01% and the Dow −0.31%.
For our coverage, it was day two of a rate-driven selloff. On Wednesday an equal-weight six-name nuclear/uranium basket fell 3.78%, against −0.75% for the S&P, a 303 bp underperformance. Underneath, UxC’s long-term U3O8 price sits at a record $96/lb, while SPUT trades 11% below its net asset value.
Three takeaways:
Rates, not fundamentals, drove the complex. Pre-revenue SMR developers and high-multiple optics are the longest-duration assets in our universe, and they traded that way.
The gap between physical uranium and the equities is widening. The term price is at an all-time high, while CCJ is 32.9% below its 52-week high and SPUT sits at a −11.04% discount.
The AI-power read-through turned negative intraday. Oracle sent a force-majeure notice on its 2.45 GW Project Jupiter campus in New Mexico.
Key numbers
U3O8 spot (SPUT-implied): $89.82/lb · 9/23 close
U3O8 long-term (UxC): $96.00/lb · record high · 8/31 print
SPUT premium/(discount): −11.04% · 9/23, which works out to ≈$80.84/lb at market price
US 10-year: ~5.10% · highest since July 2007
WTI crude (Nov): $95.32 · ▲ +3.16 (+3.43%)
October FOMC hike odds: 69% · CME FedWatch, 9/24 AM
01 · Macro Tape
S&P 500: 7,704.13 · ▼ 1.90 (−0.02%)
Dow Jones: 51,349.98 · ▼ 161.61 (−0.31%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,939.37 · ▲ 3.34 (+0.01%)
Russell 2000: 2,835.58 · ▼ 3.08 (−0.11%)
VIX: 15.64 · ▲ 0.46 (+3.03%)
WTI crude, Nov-26: $95.32 · ▲ 3.16 (+3.43%)
Gold (front): $4,306.70 · ▼ 11.70 (−0.27%)
US 10-year yield: ~5.10% · intraday ~5.14% · 19-year high
US 30-year yield: 5.43% · highest since 2004
Data and Fed:
Initial jobless claims were 197K vs. 201K expected (−1K w/w), and continuing claims were 1.72M.
The 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.37% (+11 bp, Mortgage News Daily), its highest since May 2024.
Brent traded above $105 intraday.
Philadelphia Fed President Paulson said modest further tightening may be warranted, and NY Fed President Williams called another hike by year-end reasonable.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said the U.S.–China truce will be extended to Jan 10, with critical minerals on the summit agenda.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
Physical market: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U / SRUUF), 9/23 close
NAV per unit: $21.57 (−$0.03, −0.13%)
Market price: $19.19 (SRUUF −0.96%)
U3O8 held: 81,697,348 lb
Total NAV: $7.42B · uranium at market $7.338B
Pounds per unit: 0.2374 · 344.16M units
Implied $/lb at market price: $80.84, excluding cash
NAV YTD: +8.97%
Q2-26 sessions at a discount: 57 of 63 (90%)
The curve. The long-term price of $96.00 sits $6.18/lb (6.9%) above the SPUT-implied spot of $89.82. Spot remains 16.1% below its $107 cycle peak and 34.0% below the 2007 high of $136. In August spot rose 3.63%, while miners gained 17.29% and juniors 19.20%, roughly 4.8x torque to the commodity.
Contracting math (Sprott Uranium Report, published 9/24)
Utility contract coverage is falling fast. U.S. coverage drops from 60% in 2030 to 9% in 2033, and European coverage from 100% in 2030 to 36% in 2034.
The NNSA is seeking new supply. Its RFI asks for about 4 Mlb/yr of U.S.-origin U3O8 from around 2030, which is roughly 100% of current U.S. mine output. U.S. reactors need about 49 Mlb/yr.
Supply has lagged price. Since 2020 the price has roughly tripled, while mine output rose only about 60 Mlb (~50%). The next supply increases have to come from higher-cost greenfield mines.
Equities (last verified print)
CCJ: $90.80 · ▼ 4.01% · 9/23 close. Volume was 2.43M vs. a 3.21M average (0.76x). 52-week range is 77.70–135.24, and the consensus price target of $127.76 implies +40.7%.
LEU: $151.31 · ▼ 4.13% · 9/23 close. Centrus is a HALEU enricher. An Oklo letter of intent covers fuel for up to five Aurora units, with deliveries from 2029.
UUUU: $11.60 · ▼ 4.45% · 9/23 close. Biggest decliner among the producers on the day.
UEC: $9.49 · ▼ 4.6% vs. the 9/23 close of $9.95 · 9/24 intraday. The range was 9.33–9.91 on 12.8M shares vs. a 9.04M average (1.42x). That leaves it 6.5% above its 52-week low and 53.3% below its January all-time high.
Desk read: Cameco’s 4% drop on Wednesday came on only 0.76x average volume, which looks like a de-rating on light participation rather than capitulation. UEC is the exception: turnover ran 1.42x average heading into its Sept 29 fiscal-year results, where options were pricing a move near 9% (TipRanks, 9/17).
03 · Reactors, SMRs & Power
OKLO: $38.82 · ▼ 4.03% · 9/23 close. The stock is 30.2% below the ~$55.64 average price on its prior $1B at-the-market share sale (17.97M shares). A new $1B share-sale program has been live since 9/11.
SMR: $8.68 · ▼ 2.36% · 9/23 close. NuScale’s Q2 revenue was $75K, and it has a $750M share-sale program on file. The stock gave back all of last week’s gains from the Ratepayer Protection Act rally.
XE · TRISO-X completes vertical construction at TX-1 (Oak Ridge)
The 214,000 sq ft structure is complete, and work now shifts to interior buildout and fuel-fabrication equipment.
Nameplate output is about 700,000 fuel pebbles a year (≈5 MTU), enough for up to 11 Xe-100 reactors.
It holds the first NRC Category 2 license for HALEU processing, with a 40-year term.
It would be the first new commercial-scale advanced fuel plant in the U.S. in more than 50 years.
XE shares remain more than 55% below their IPO high.
CCJ · Westinghouse IPO math
Bloomberg reports a target valuation above $50B, with a public filing possible as soon as October. At $50B, Cameco’s 49% stake is worth about $24.5B, or roughly 62% of CCJ’s $39.5B market cap at Wednesday’s close. Cameco’s Q2 MD&A cites a Westinghouse pipeline of up to 91 potential AP1000 reactors (~105 GWe).
BWXT · Investment-grade rating ahead of Investor Day
Fitch assigned BWXT a BBB investment-grade rating on 9/23. Investor Day follows on Tuesday, 9/29, the next scheduled update on long-range targets.
AI power · Oracle invokes force majeure on Project Jupiter
Oracle told the Blue Owl-affiliated developer it may delay payments if the New Mexico campus misses its 2028 start date.
The site is designed around up to 2.45 GW of on-site fuel-cell power, and about $18B of related debt is quoted at 89–91 cents on the dollar.
ORCL fell about 4%, and Bloom Energy fell 4.4% premarket.
Our read: problems securing site power and permits are now showing up as contract risk. That supports the long-run case for firm, licensed generation like nuclear, but it weighs on near-term AI-spending sentiment, which is what our SMR and optics names trade on.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
These prints are from 3:18 PM ET on 9/23, not the close.
LITE: $934.01 · ▼ 1.23%. Up 153.3% YTD and 14.0% below its 52-week high of 1,085.68. The consensus price target of $1,149 implies +23.1%. Rosenblatt reiterated Buy with a $1,300 target on 9/23. Market cap is $83.8B.
COHR: $299.94 · ▼ 3.37%. Last quarter’s revenue was $2.05B (+34% y/y), with datacenter and communications at 79% of the mix.
AAOI: $101.70 · ▼ 4.95%. The most volatile name in the group, driven by its 800G/1.6T transceiver ramp.
CRDO: $195.10 · ▲ 1.32%. The only gainer in the set, showing relative strength vs. optical components.
An equal-weight basket of these four names was down 2.06% late Wednesday.
Optics traded as the most volatile end of the AI-spending trade this week. Thursday added two negatives:
Yields at 19-year highs pressured valuations on the most expensive growth names.
Oracle’s force-majeure notice raised questions about timelines for large AI data center campuses.
Meta’s +4% on its Muse monetization plan partly offset those. Reported fundamentals are intact: Lumentum’s fiscal Q4 revenue was $1.006B (+109% y/y), and Ciena carries a backlog of about $10B. On the supply side, Tower Semiconductor and NewPhotonics began high-volume shipments of laser-integrated optical engines for 800G–1.6T modules on 9/17, with 6.4T near-packaged optics on the roadmap.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tue 9/29: Uranium Energy FY2026 results, pre-market, with a call at 11:00 ET (UEC)
Tue 9/29: BWX Technologies Investor Day (BWXT)
Oct (TBD): Westinghouse public IPO filing possible, per Bloomberg (CCJ, BEP)
Oct FOMC: Rate decision, with 69% hike odds priced as of 9/24
Fri 10/30: Cameco Q3 results (CCJ)
Sat 10/31: Fermi/TensorWave extended closing date. Fermi picked CBRE to run its first data center on 9/24 (FRMI)
~Thu 11/5: Lumentum fiscal Q1 FY27 results, estimated date (LITE)
Sun 1/10/27: U.S.–China truce extension expires, with critical minerals on the agenda
06 · Desk Read: What We’re Watching
i. The gap between the term price and the equities. The long-term price is at a record $96, while CCJ is 32.9% off its high and SPUT trades at an 11% discount. The physical market is pricing a scarcity the equity market is not. A narrowing SPUT discount would be the first sign that equity money is returning.
ii. Rates are the swing factor. With the 10-year at 5.10% and an October hike about 69% priced, Fed speakers and Treasury auctions are likely to matter more than company news for pre-revenue developers (OKLO, SMR, NNE) and high-multiple optics.
iii. Execution over announcements. The milestones that turn policy support into actual fuel are TX-1’s construction, Centrus’s HALEU deliveries and UEC’s Burke Hollow ramp (reporting 9/29).
Sources, stamps & method
Indexes, commodities, VIX: Yahoo Finance close data and live coverage, 9/24 (4:11 PM ET).
Yields, claims, mortgage rates, Fed commentary, FedWatch odds: Yahoo Finance, 9/24.
Physical uranium: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust daily data (9/23 close, posted 6:00 PM ET).
Term price, contracting, NNSA and supply data: Sprott Uranium Report, 9/24 (UxC and Bloomberg data as of 8/31).
Equity prints: Yahoo Finance, 9/23 close (LITE, COHR, AAOI and CRDO at 3:18 PM ET 9/23). UEC 9/24 intraday via Robinhood.
Company news: GlobeNewswire (TRISO-X, 9/24); UEC release (9/22); Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC (Oracle, 9/24); Bloomberg via The Motley Fool (Westinghouse); SEC filings (Oklo 10-Q; Tower 6-K).
Method:
SPUT-implied spot = market value of U3O8 held ÷ pounds held.
$/lb at market = unit price ÷ pounds per unit, excluding cash.
Baskets are equal-weighted simple averages.
Where a Thursday close was not verified at publication, the line shows the last verified print with its stamp.
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures come from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; verify before acting. Past performance does not indicate future results.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Friday 9/25, post-close