Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 021 · Friday, October 23, 2026 · Post-close · Week in Review
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
For the first time in this run, all five names in the nuclear basket set new 52-week lows in the same session: CCJ $76.92, UEC $7.19, OKLO $26.07, SMR $5.20 and BWXT $123.05. LEU traded below $100 intraday ($99.33). The basket fell only −0.94% and most names recovered from their lows, so today was another step lower, not a collapse. Brent settled at $116.72, a six-month high, and the Dow fell −1.23%.
Oil drove most of the session. Brent rose for a third straight week, and WTI rose about 4% to just over $103, on escalating Middle East fighting and attacks near the Red Sea. The Dow fell −1.23% (−653 points), the S&P −0.52% to its lowest close since 9/16, and the Nasdaq −0.21% to its lowest since 8/3. The 10-yr rose 4bp to 4.99%, still below 5%. Market odds of an October Fed hike fell to about 5%, from 15% earlier in the week.
Optics fell −1.69%, but almost all of that was CRDO, which fell −9.51% to its lowest close since April. A competitor’s CEO said rivals will gain ground in its active electrical cable business. An independent channel check found limited near-term deployment of 1.6T cables. CRDO also disclosed insider sales under pre-arranged plans. The rest of optics was roughly flat. SPUT units rose +1.37% after the discount touched −15.23% on Thursday’s data.
Three takeaways
The whole basket made new lows together, on mostly light volume. OKLO traded at 0.63× its 50-day average, SMR 0.61× and UEC 0.72×. LEU, at 1.45×, was the exception. BWXT closed 3.4% above its low and CEG 2.5% above its. The selling is steady but not heavy.
This week, rates didn’t explain the moves; AI capex did. The 10-yr fell 11bp for the week, and the basket fell −6.25%. Utilities rose +0.8%, while generators fell (VST −7.8%, NRG −11.0%, CEG −6.6%). The market is discounting power demand from hyperscalers, not the cost of capital.
The ranking held for a fourteenth session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−43%, BWXT ~−79%, CCJ ~−160%, UEC ~−263%, LEU ~−313%, OKLO ~−373%, SMR ~−677%. The order is the same as it has been, with owners and suppliers first, fuel second and developers last.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −0.94% today and −6.25% for the week · S&P −0.52% today and −0.47% for the week
New 52-week lows: CCJ $76.92 · UEC $7.19 · OKLO $26.07 · SMR $5.20 · BWXT $123.05 · LEU $99.33 · URA $33.37
CEG $253.45, its lowest close since 7/17. LEU is 48.7% below its $199.64 offering price
Optics −1.69% today and −8.7% for the week. CRDO −9.51%
Brent $116.72, a six-month high. 10-yr 4.99%. VIX 19.45
SPUT discount −15.23% (Thursday data). NAV fell −0.10%, its first decline in our log
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,215.16, −652.82 (−1.23%)
S&P 500 7,623.68, −39.75 (−0.52%), its lowest close since 9/16
Nasdaq Composite 25,955.34, −53.52 (−0.21%), its lowest close since 8/3
Russell 2000 2,775.90, −8.13 (−0.29%)
Oil: December Brent settled at $116.72, a six-month high and its third straight weekly gain. WTI rose about 4% to just over $103. Traders priced in escalating Middle East fighting and attacks near the Red Sea. Airlines fell.
Rates and the Fed:
The 10-yr closed at 4.99% (+4bp), a day after its biggest one-day drop in more than two years.
Market odds of a hike at the Oct 27–28 FOMC fell to about 5%, from about 15% earlier in the week and 37% at the end of September.
AI and chips:
The SOX rose +0.44%. MU rose +2.46% and TSM +1.49%.
NVDA fell −0.59% to $210.96, its lowest close since 9/14. META fell −0.96% to $642.62.
Concern about financing costs kept pressure on CoreWeave and similar companies.
SK Hynix shelved a planned U.S. listing of its Solidigm unit, citing market conditions.
Movers:
Cybersecurity was strong again, with SAIL, NET and PANW each up more than 7%.
AXP fell about 3% after announcing roughly 3,500 job cuts and missing on revenue.
Telecom stocks fell after reports that SpaceX is in talks to lease space on 80,000 cell sites.
Power: XLU −0.72% to $42.56, VST −0.48% to $140.16, NRG −2.19% to $92.31 (its lowest close in a year).
Volatility: VIX closed at 19.45 (+2.2%), with an intraday high of 20.66.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
BWXT $127.19, −0.09%.
It set a new 52-week low of $123.05, then closed 3.4% above it, at its lowest close in a year.
Volume was about 0.9× its 50-day average. YTD −26.4%. It is 6.0% below its 10/5 close.
CEG $253.45, −0.69%.
Range $247.25–$256.79. It closed 2.5% above its low, at its lowest close since 7/17.
Market cap is about $90B. YTD −28.3%. Since 10/6, −15.6%.
OKLO $26.35, −2.44%.
It set a new 52-week low of $26.07 and closed at its lowest level in a year. It was the basket’s worst performer today.
Volume was about 0.6× average. YTD −63.3%. Since 10/6, −31.7%.
SMR $5.38, unchanged.
It set a new 52-week low of $5.20, then closed at $5.38, the same as Thursday’s year-low close.
Volume was 21.6M, about 0.6× average. YTD −62.0%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $102.45, −1.63%.
It traded as low as $99.33, its first trade below $100, and closed at its lowest level in a year.
Volume was 1.10M, about 1.45× average, the heaviest relative volume in the basket.
It is 48.7% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −57.8%. Since 10/6, −33.4%.
UEC $7.35, −1.74%.
It set a new 52-week low of $7.19, below the $7.27 low of 10/15 that we have been watching. It closed at its lowest level in a year.
Volume was about 0.7× average. YTD −37.1%.
CCJ $78.60, −0.42%.
It set a new 52-week low of $76.92, below the $77.70 low from earlier in the year. It closed at its lowest level in a year.
Volume was 3.10M, about 1.0× average. YTD −14.1%. CCJ reports Q3 on 10/30.
URA $34.11, +0.06%. It set a new 52-week low of $33.37 and closed above it. YTD −20.2%.
SPUT
Thursday 10/22 print:
NAV $21.59 (−0.10%). That is the first daily decline in our log; NAV had been flat or up since 10/9.
Price $18.30. Discount −15.23%, within 28bp of the −15.51% low from 10/14.
Implied spot about $89.93/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.37% to $18.55. If NAV held at $21.59, the discount would be about −14.1%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $78.14/lb.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
CRDO $147.29, −9.51%.
It opened at $150.44 (−7.6%), fell to $142.89, and closed at its lowest level since 4/13.
Volume was 12.6M, about 1.6× average. YTD +2.4%, which is close to erasing the year’s gain. Since 10/6, −33.3%.
The reported causes were factual, not ratings:
MaxLinear’s CEO said rivals expect to gain share in active electrical cables, where Credo is estimated to hold 93–99% of the market.
An Edgewater Research channel check found “limited evidence” of near-term 1.6T AEC deployment at the largest AI programs, and cited a Cisco 1.6T program that may use other suppliers’ chips.
Credo’s CEO and CTO sold shares on 10/19–20 under pre-arranged trading plans.
AAOI $67.51, −0.82%. It closed at its lowest level since 2/26. YTD +93.7%. Since 10/6, −48.1%.
CIEN $320.26, −0.74%. It closed at its lowest level since 9/14. YTD +36.9%.
GLW $123.69, −0.24%. It closed at its lowest level since 3/6. YTD +41.3%.
LITE $756.17, +0.48%.
It traded as low as $736.01, 35.6% below its $1,143.00 record, and closed above that.
YTD +105.2%.
COHR $209.29, +0.71%. Range $203.55–$215.38. YTD +13.4%.
The pattern: excluding CRDO, the other five optics names averaged about −0.1% today. The drop in the group came from one company’s news about competition and adoption.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −34.6% on average, against −24.0% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 10/23
Oct 27–28: FOMC. Market odds of a hike are now about 5%
Late Oct: other hyperscaler capex reports (dates unconfirmed) · GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 29: AMZN Q3
Oct 30: CCJ Q3, the first quarterly report from a basket company since the run began
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. New lows without heavy selling. All five basket names set 52-week lows in one session, a first for this run, but the basket fell less than 1%. Four of the seven tracked names traded below average volume. BWXT and CEG closed 2.5–3.4% above their lows. The prices keep finding new lows, but nobody is selling in size. We’d change that read on a day with heavy volume, at about 2× average or more, and closes at the lows. The two candidates are a capitulation day or a turn.
ii. This week, AI capex explained the moves and rates didn’t. The 10-yr fell 11bp, the odds of an October hike collapsed to about 5%, and utilities rose. The nuclear basket still fell 6.25% and power generators fell 7–11%. The rates channel we tracked on 10/14 and 10/15 has stopped working. The market is now pricing these stocks on whether hyperscaler spending turns into revenue that pays for itself. AMZN (10/29) is the next big data point. CCJ (10/30) is the first fundamental report from inside the basket.
iii. Physical uranium is starting to slip, a little. NAV fell for the first time in our log, by just −0.10%, and implied spot fell about $0.09 to $89.93/lb. The SPUT discount came within 28bp of its widest level. The move is small, but it’s the first time in two weeks that the physical side has moved in the same direction as the equities, even slightly. If NAV keeps slipping, the “physical held while equities fell” divergence we’ve been tracking would start to close, and in the wrong direction.
07 · Week in Review (10/19–10/23)
What happened each day
Mon 10/19: basket −1.43%, optics +1.70%. Chips bounced while utilities fell 2%. CEG closed below its 10/5 level for the first time.
Tue 10/20: basket −0.64%, optics −0.86%. The Russell 2000 rose 1.65%. BWXT became the last name to fall below its 10/5 close. SMR set a new low.
Wed 10/21: basket +0.58%, optics +3.44%. CEG rose 4.6% and got back above its 10/5 close for one day. After the bell, META raised its 2026 capex floor to $135B.
Thu 10/22: basket −3.93%, optics −10.92%. META fell 7%. The 10-yr fell about 20bp. Utilities rose 2.1% while generators sold off.
Fri 10/23: basket −0.94%, optics −1.69%. All five basket names set new 52-week lows. CRDO fell 9.5%. Brent settled at $116.72.
The week, from Friday 10/16 to today
Indices: Dow +0.41% · S&P −0.47% · Nasdaq −0.71% · Russell 2000 +2.00%
Rates: 10-yr 5.10% → 4.99% (−11bp). The week’s range was 4.94–5.15%.
Volatility: VIX 19.99 → 19.45
Nuclear basket: −6.25%, compounding the daily moves
Nuclear names: LEU −10.9% · SMR −7.7% · BWXT −7.2% · UEC −7.1% · CEG −6.6% · OKLO −5.8% · URA −3.7% · CCJ −3.6%
Optics: −8.7%, compounding the daily moves. CRDO −13.2% · AAOI −10.7% · COHR −10.1% · LITE −8.3% · GLW −6.3% · CIEN −3.7%
Power and AI: XLU +0.8% · VST −7.8% · NRG −11.0% · META −9.4% · SOX −3.2% · NVDA −1.5%
SPUT: units −1.4% (18.81 → 18.55). NAV $21.61 → $21.59. The discount went from −12.95% to −15.23% (Thursday data).
Two weeks since 10/9, measuring the drawdown from the Google deal
Nuclear basket −18.4%
Optics −30.9%
S&P −2.4% · Nasdaq −5.2%
What we learned this week
Lower rates no longer help the developers. The market is pricing them on AI capex.
The market split regulated utilities from AI-exposed generators.
META’s capex increase was read as a cost risk, not as a sign of power demand.
The cumulative ranking held for all five sessions.
Physical uranium showed its first small sign of weakness.
Corrections
LEU 10/22 low: revised in the consolidated data to $102.16 (not $102.21). The conclusion is unchanged.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. Weekly and two-week basket and optics figures compound the daily moves. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its 10/12 reported cap. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Monday 10/26, post-close