Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 033 · Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
CoreWeave revived the AI trade, and once again the gains went to compute and networking, not to power. CoreWeave rose about 24% after raising its revenue outlook. It also said it expects about $9B in customer prepayments over the next three months and doesn’t plan to take on more expensive debt through 2027. Optics rose +10.12%, with AAOI +15.6% and LITE +10.7%. MU rose +11.9% and the SOX +5.66%. The nuclear basket rose only +1.07%. CEG rose +2.60% and stayed above its pre-Google-deal close.
The Nasdaq rose +1.60% and erased its post-election losses. The S&P rose +1.31%, the Dow +0.49%, and the VIX fell −10% to 17.49. The bond market was closed for Veterans Day; the 10-yr’s only print was 5.00%, a nominal level. NVDA rose +2.9%, snapping a two-day losing streak, but it is still down about 12–14% in November.
Three takeaways
This is the third time the AI rebound has skipped power. On 10/19, 10/26 and now 11/11, optics beat the nuclear basket by about 3–9 points when the AI trade rose. Today the gap was 10.1% against 1.1%. CoreWeave’s news eased worries about how AI is financed, and the market’s first move was back into chips and optics. Bloom Energy (+16% midday) was the only power name to get a clear lift.
Since Thursday’s close, the nuclear basket is +16.8%. All names are still well above last Thursday’s lows, and the basket is −21.0% below its 10/5 close. The ranking held for a twenty-seventh session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~+22%, BWXT ~−93%, LEU ~−235%, CCJ ~−237%, UEC ~−279%, OKLO ~−392%, SMR ~−721%.
Physical uranium keeps easing. NAV is $21.89, down 1.6% from its 10/30 peak, and implied spot is about $91.24/lb. The SPUT discount was −15.86% on Tuesday and is about −15.3% today (estimate).
Key numbers
Nuclear basket +1.07% · S&P +1.31% · Nasdaq +1.60% · Optics +10.12% · SOX +5.66%
CoreWeave about +24% · MU +11.89% · MRVL +9.33% · NVDA +2.87%
CEG $274.73 (+2.60%), 2.7% above its 10/5 close
SPUT NAV $21.89 (Tuesday data). Implied spot ~$91.24/lb. Discount −15.86%
LITE–MRVL deal spread 17.2% · VIX 17.49 · Bond market closed
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,486.49 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 7,619.38 (+1.31%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,466.19 (+1.60%), back above its post-election level
Russell 2000 2,846.26 (+0.88%)
CoreWeave:
Shares rose about 24% after the company raised its full-year revenue outlook.
It expects about $9B in customer prepayments and deposits over the next three months.
It said it doesn’t plan to take on more expensive debt through 2027.
Chips:
The SOX rose +5.66%. MU rose +11.89% to $811.30, and TSM +4.25%.
NVDA rose +2.87% to $173.73, but is still down about 12–14% in November.
Nebius rose about 15% early in the session.
Power: Bloom Energy rose about 16% by midday. XLU +0.21%, VST +1.73%, NRG +0.40%, GE Vernova +1.41%.
Rates: the bond market was closed for Veterans Day. The 10-yr’s only print was 5.00%, a nominal level after Tuesday’s hot CPI.
Volatility: VIX closed at 17.49 (−10.1%).
Oil and gold: December WTI was about $86.45 (+0.5%), and gold about $3,994 (−0.9%).
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
CEG $274.73, +2.60%.
Range $267.81–$276.67. Its low came within 19 cents of the 10/5 close ($267.62), and it held above it.
YTD −22.2%.
OKLO $25.86, +3.07%.
It is +39.6% from last Thursday’s low. YTD −64.0%.
SMR $5.23, +0.19%.
It opened at $5.52 (+5.7%) and gave it all back, closing near its $5.18 low.
YTD −63.1%.
BWXT $125.68, −0.76%.
It opened at $128.50 and faded. It was the only basket name to finish down.
YTD −27.3%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $112.17, +2.09%. It traded up to $117.14 intraday. YTD −53.8%.
CCJ $74.32, +1.99%. YTD −18.8%.
UEC $7.23, +0.84%. Volume was about 0.6× its 50-day average. YTD −38.1%.
URA $33.64, +1.48%. YTD −21.3%.
SPUT
Tuesday 11/10 print:
NAV $21.89 (−0.12%). Discount −15.86%, matching our −16.0% estimate.
Implied spot about $91.24/lb, down from $92.74 on 10/30.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +0.65% to $18.54. If NAV held at $21.89, the discount would be about −15.3%(our estimate).
What this means: NAV has fallen for five of the last six prints, from $22.25 to $21.89 (−1.6%). The move is small. But the “physical holds while the equities fall” pattern from October is fading, and the discount is still near the widest in our log.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
AAOI $55.86, +15.60%. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +60.2%.
LITE $648.06, +10.67%.
YTD +75.8%.
Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $168.80 close = $759.60 of implied value. LITE closed 17.2% below that, narrower than Tuesday’s 18.7%.
COHR $234.51, +9.25%. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +27.1%.
CRDO $141.41, +8.94%. YTD −1.7%.
CIEN $296.04, +8.80%. YTD +26.6%.
GLW $120.46, +7.43%. YTD +37.6%.
MRVL $168.80, +9.33%.
The pattern: every optics name rose 7–16% on above-average volume. CoreWeave’s comments eased concerns about how AI spending gets financed, and the market went straight to AI networking.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 11/11
Tue 11/17: NVDA Q3
December FOMC: a hike is still on the table after October CPI
Levels to watch: last Thursday’s lows (OKLO $18.53, SMR $4.28, LEU $84.86, CCJ $66.06, UEC $6.12, BWXT $112.55)
06 · Desk Read
i. When AI sentiment improves, power isn’t where the money goes first. Three times now, an AI-positive catalyst (Nvidia’s memory standard on 10/19, Anthropic’s S-1 on 10/26, CoreWeave today) lifted optics and chips far more than the nuclear basket. CoreWeave’s news was about financing: prepayments and no more expensive debt. That helps the compute layer directly. For nuclear, the demand it implies is years away and runs through power contracts. Today’s gap (+10.1% for optics against +1.1% for nuclear) is the widest of the three.
ii. CEG held its level. On Tuesday CEG pulled back to within 14 cents of its 10/5 close. Today its low came within 19 cents of that level again, and it rallied 2.6%. Its contracted, federally financed growth (discussed in Edition 031) is the main difference between CEG and the rest of the basket, and its chart reflects that. It is the only tracked name holding above its pre-deal close.
iii. Physical uranium is easing at the margin. NAV is down 1.6% from its 10/30 peak, and implied spot has moved from $92.74 to $91.24. The SPUT discount is still near its widest. That makes the October divergence less clear-cut: physical uranium is no longer clearly stronger than the equities. If NAV keeps slipping, the fuel names lose the support of a rising commodity under them.
Corrections
Edition 032 (11/10) closes: the finals were slightly different: CCJ $72.87 (−3.32%), LEU $109.87 (−6.37%), OKLO $25.09 (−6.52%), BWXT $126.64 (−1.05%). The basket was unchanged at −4.17%.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Thursday 11/12, post-close