Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 012 · Monday, October 12, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The AI-infrastructure trade sold off while the index barely moved. The S&P finished −0.06%, the five-name nuclear basket fell −4.61%, optics fell −8.17%, and UEC, LEU, OKLO and SMR all made new 52-week lows.
The Dow was the only major index up (+0.38%), with gains in financials and defensives ahead of bank earnings. Under that calm surface, the market sold the two trades most tied to AI power and AI networking. Optics fell the most. CIEN −9.95%, LITE −9.78%, AAOI −8.17%, COHR −7.87%, CRDO −7.25% and GLW −6.00%. LITE closed below $1,000 for the first time since 9/30, three sessions after it set a record intraday high of $1,143.00 on Friday. The six optics names fell 8.17% on average and the Nasdaq fell 0.44%, a gap of about 773bp.
The nuclear names split the way they have all week. The developers got hit hardest: OKLO −7.18% and SMR −6.94% both closed within 2–9 cents of new lows. The fuel names were next (LEU −5.01%, UEC −3.97%, CCJ −2.20%). Supply chain and owners held up best (BWXT −2.77%, CEG −1.40%). SPUT ran the other way. On Friday’s data its discount narrowed 166bp to −11.62%. Equity holders are selling the theme, but the physical vehicle isn’t confirming it.
Three takeaways
This looks like crowded positioning being reduced, not news. Optics and nuclear sold off together on a flat index. We found no company-specific release behind either move. The only cause reported was general caution about AI spending. Memory stocks fell too (MU −3.88%).
The quality ranking held again. Using the share of Tuesday’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~80%, BWXT ~43%, CCJ ~−24%, LEU ~−49%, UEC ~−68%, OKLO ~−146%, SMR ~−288%. That is the same order as Friday. CEG and BWXT have been the top two, and SMR the bottom, in all four sessions since Tuesday’s spike.
SPUT is diverging from the equities. The discount narrowed to −11.62% from −13.28%. The vehicle’s price still values U3O8 at about $80.20/lb, against implied spot of about $89.72/lb.
Key numbers
Five-name nuclear basket (equal-weight): −4.61%. S&P −0.06%. Gap −455bp
Optics, six names (LITE/COHR/AAOI/CRDO/CIEN/GLW): −8.17%. Nasdaq −0.44%
New 52-week lows: UEC $8.81 · LEU $134.46 · OKLO $32.19 · SMR $6.61
From Tuesday’s 10/6 close to now: nuclear basket −11.40%, optics six −13.38%
LITE $995.41 (−9.78%), 12.9% below Friday’s $1,143.00 intraday record
SPUT discount −11.62% (Fri 10/9 data), narrower by 166bp
10-yr 5.24%, unchanged because the cash Treasury market was closed for the holiday
01 · Macro Tape
IndexCloseChg%Dow51,850.55+195.60+0.38%S&P 5007,807.24−4.30−0.06%Nasdaq Comp.27,245.90−120.27−0.44%Russell 20002,794.48−12.50−0.45%
S&P range: 7,796.94–7,821.67, a 0.32% day. The index was quiet; the damage was inside it.
Rates: The 10-yr printed 5.24% with open, high, low and close all equal. The cash Treasury market was closed for Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day, so tomorrow is the first real rates session since Friday’s close (also 5.24%). For reference, the 10-yr’s high for the cycle was 5.36% intraday on 10/7.
Sectors: Communication services and consumer defensive led. Financials rose ahead of the big-bank Q3 reports. Tech lagged, with memory weak: MU −3.88% and SK Hynix −4.02%.
Gold: $4,167.56, −0.64%.
Context: Today is the fourth anniversary of the October 2022 low. The S&P is up about 120% since then. Middle East headlines remain a background risk.
Policy: Fed funds is 3.75–4.00% after September’s hike. The FOMC meets Oct 27–28.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
TickerClose%RangeVolumeMkt capOKLO$32.21−7.18%32.19–34.0010.1M$5.99BSMR$6.70−6.94%6.61–7.0740.8M$2.88BBWXT$139.85−2.77%139.68–143.68711K$12.81BCEG$293.89−1.40%290.40–301.772.08M$104.13B
OKLO fell to a new 52-week low of $32.19 and closed 2 cents above it, which is effectively at the low. On 10.1M shares, it is now 16.5% below Tuesday’s $38.55 close and 10.5% below Monday 10/5’s pre-spike close of $35.97.
SMR made a new 52-week low of $6.61. The 40.8M shares traded were the heaviest in the group. It is −16.5%since Tuesday and about 53% down YTD (per 24/7 Wall St). It closed below $7 for the first time in this run.
BWXT closed near its low (low $139.68), but is still 3.3% above its 10/5 close of $135.35. It is the only basket name besides CEG still above its pre-spike level.
CEG fell 1.40%, the smallest decline we track, and keeps about 80% of Tuesday’s gain. CEG’s listing now shows Q3 earnings on Nov 9.
Dollar check: CEG’s 1.40% decline erased about $1.48B of market value. OKLO’s 7.18% (about $0.46B) and SMR’s 6.94% (about $0.22B) together came to about $0.68B. The developers fell more in percentage terms, but CEG lost more than twice as many dollars. CEG’s market cap is about 11.7× OKLO and SMR combined.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
TickerClose%RangeVolumeMkt capCCJ$86.12−2.20%85.69–88.001.82M$37.50BUEC$8.83−3.97%8.81–9.076.71M$4.37BLEU$135.31−5.01%134.46–141.20752K$2.77B
CCJ closed 1.5% below its 10/5 close of $87.47, so all of Tuesday’s gain is gone. Volume was light at 1.82M shares, so this looked like a steady fade rather than forced selling.
UEC set a new 52-week low of $8.81 and closed 2 cents above it. It is −12.7% since Tuesday’s $10.11 close.
LEU set a new 52-week low of $134.46. It is now 32.2% below the $199.64 offering price and −12.1% since Tuesday.
URA traded around $38.02 (−2%) at midday (midday print, not a close).
SPUT (Fri 10/9 data, reported with a one-day lag)
NAV $21.54 (−0.08%). Price $19.04. Discount −11.62%, narrower by 166bp from −13.28%.
Implied spot is about $89.72/lb. At the market price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $80.20/lb, a gap of about $9.52/lb.
Pounds held are unchanged and units stand at 344,156,215. NAV is +8.83% YTD.
Read: the discount narrowed on the same day the uranium equities were trending lower. Monday’s print (out tomorrow) will show whether that narrowing held through today’s selloff.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
TickerClose%RangeVolumeSince Tue 10/6CIEN$405.01−9.95%400.20–445.953.31M−8.71%LITE$995.41−9.78%980.00–1,102.006.42M−12.17%AAOI$100.68−8.17%99.22–106.4110.92M−22.65%COHR$288.02−7.87%284.10–306.007.41M−14.88%CRDO$200.84−7.25%200.24–212.238.31M−9.05%GLW$147.28−6.00%145.76–154.25*7.98M−12.84%
*GLW’s reported range is provisional: the data feed shows an open ($155.01) above the session high.
LITE led the group lower. Its 6.42M shares were the most since 10/1. It closed below $1,000 for the first time since 9/30, and the session low was exactly $980.00. It is 12.9% below Friday’s intraday record of $1,143.00, which replaces the $1,124.40 high we cited earlier. It is still about 30% above its 200-day average of about $764 (per 24/7 Wall St).
CIEN fell 9.95%. It has now given back about 72% of its Tuesday jump: 10/5 close $389.69, 10/6 close $443.65 (+13.85%), today $405.01.
AAOI has lost 22.7% in four sessions ($130.16 → $100.68). The intraday low of $99.22 was its first trade below $100 since 9/30.
COHR closed at $288.02, about level with its 9/30 close of $287.81. That means all of the October rally is gone.
CRDO held up best, −9.05% since Tuesday, but still closed 60 cents off its low.
Cause: none of the names issued a release. The only cause reported was general caution about AI spending. This was the second group-wide drop in three sessions (10/8 was the first).
One week: since Tuesday, the six optics names are down 13.38% on average and the five-name nuclear basket is down 11.40%. Both legs of the AI-infrastructure trade have unwound by similar amounts.
06 · Desk Read
i. Today was about positioning, not nuclear news. The S&P was flat, the Dow was up, and the two AI-infrastructure trades fell 4.6% (nuclear) and 8.2% (optics) on no company news. That pattern points to a crowded trade being reduced, not to any change in fundamentals. The tell is that every optics name fell at least 6% and every nuclear name fell at least 1.4%. If this were a theme-specific shock, the moves would vary more by name.
ii. The quality ranking is still the most useful signal. Over four sessions since Tuesday, the same ordering has held: owners and supply chain at the top, fuel in the middle, pre-revenue developers at the bottom. CEG keeps about 80% of Tuesday’s gain and SMR is about 288% below it. What would change our read: OKLO or SMR reclaiming their 10/5 closes, or CEG losing the top spot on a day the basket is weak. Neither has happened yet.
iii. Watch the gap between equities and the physical vehicle. UEC, LEU and CCJ all closed below their pre-spike levels. On Friday’s data, though, SPUT’s discount narrowed by 166bp. If Monday’s SPUT print (out tomorrow) holds that narrowing, the equities have fallen while the physical vehicle hasn’t followed, which is the reverse of last week’s pattern. If the discount widens back toward −13%, equities and the physical vehicle are both pointing lower. Tomorrow also brings the first rates session since Friday, with the 10-yr at 5.24% and CPI later this week.
Corrections & Backfill
Optics closes, 10/6–10/9, now verified. These replace the placeholders in Editions 009–011.
LITE: 10/6 $1,133.40 · 10/7 $1,111.07 · 10/8 $1,048.60 · 10/9 $1,103.35
COHR: 10/6 $338.36 · 10/7 $334.56 · 10/8 $302.35 · 10/9 $312.62
AAOI: 10/6 $130.16 · 10/7 $122.54 · 10/8 $105.90 · 10/9 $109.64
CRDO: 10/6 $220.83 · 10/7 $220.01 · 10/8 $211.86 · 10/9 $216.55
CIEN: 10/6 $443.65 · 10/7 $446.45 · 10/8 $425.93 · 10/9 $449.77
GLW: 10/6 $168.97 · 10/7 $163.25 · 10/8 $152.83 · 10/9 $156.68
LITE 52-week high: this is $1,143.00 (intraday, 10/9), not $1,124.40 (intraday, 10/5) as we last cited. The stock also traded to $1,137.20 on 10/6.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). It measures how much of Tuesday’s gain each name still keeps. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ 81,697,348 lb. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. SPUT data is reported with a one-day lag. Any midday or provisional figure is marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Tuesday 10/13, post-close