Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 023 · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
Uranium led a two-day rebound in the nuclear names. The five-name basket rose +5.60% on Tuesday and +0.97% today, +6.62% over two days, against +0.88% for the S&P. Uranium itself moved too: SPUT’s NAV rose +1.08% on Tuesday, implied spot rose to about $90.79/lb (the highest in our log), and the discount narrowed to −11.98%. The Fed held at 3.75–4.00%, with two dissents in favor of a hike. After the bell: GOOGL fell about 10%, MSFT rose, and LITE jumped about 11% on reports of acquisition talks with Marvell.
(There was no edition on Tuesday 10/27, so today covers both sessions.) Since Friday the move has run through the fuel names. Over two days: LEU +13.7%, UEC +12.1%, URA +6.4%, CCJ +6.0%. The developers (OKLO +4.6%, SMR +7.6%) rose on Tuesday and slipped today. BWXT (+2.9%) and CEG (+2.2%) lagged. Optics kept recovering, up +5.58% on Tuesday and +4.17% today, with LITE closing at its highest level since 10/13.
The S&P rose for a third straight session (+0.28%) and the Russell 2000 closed at its highest level since 10/5. The 10-yr rose 6bp to 5.05% after the Fed decision. The vote to hold was 10–2, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voting for a 25bp hike.
Three takeaways
Physical uranium led this time. NAV’s +1.08% on Tuesday was its biggest one-day move in our log, and SPUT’s discount narrowed by 197bp to −11.98%. The fuel names rose the most. Physical uranium and the uranium equities moved up together for the first time in this run. CCJ reports Friday.
The ranking held for a seventeenth session, and the fuel names are catching up. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: BWXT ~−4%, CEG ~−29%, CCJ ~−65%, UEC ~−133%, LEU ~−237%, OKLO ~−343%, SMR ~−591%. Since Friday, CCJ has recovered about 95 points on that measure, UEC about 130 and LEU about 77.
The hyperscaler capex reports pointed in different directions. Alphabet held its 2026 capex range and said it expects a “significant increase” in 2027 (per reports), and the stock fell about 10% after hours. Microsoft’s quarterly capex was $39.4B, against $45.9B expected, and the stock rose about 3–5%. Power names barely moved after hours (CEG −0.1%, VST −0.6%) while LITE jumped on M&A news. AI headlines are still moving optics, not power.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket +0.97% today, +6.62% over two days · S&P +0.28% today, +0.88% over two days
Optics +4.17% today, +9.98% over two days. LITE $913.95
SPUT NAV $21.79 (+1.08% Tuesday). Implied spot ~$90.79/lb. Discount −11.98%
Fed held at 3.75–4.00%, vote 10–2 (two dissents for a hike)
10-yr 5.05% (+6bp) · VIX 16.91 · Russell 2000 at its highest close since 10/5
After hours: GOOGL ~−10% · MSFT ~+3–5% · LITE ~+11%
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,475.10, +97.53 (+0.19%)
S&P 500 7,743.98, +21.38 (+0.28%), its third straight gain
Nasdaq Composite 26,549.85, +72.04 (+0.27%)
Russell 2000 2,830.51, +11.64 (+0.41%), its highest close since 10/5
Tuesday 10/27: S&P 7,722.60 (+0.60%) · Nasdaq 26,477.81 (+1.18%)
Fed:
The FOMC held the target range at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a 25bp hike.
Chair Warsh said politics had “no role” in the decision. He also announced strategy-focused meetings with no policy decisions (reported; details of the schedule change weren’t confirmed at our cutoff).
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 5.05% (+6bp), with a range of 4.99–5.05%.
Volatility: VIX closed at 16.91 (−3.5%).
Chips:
The SOX rose +1.75% to its highest close since 10/14, up 5.4% over two days.
MU rose +5.86% to $983.23, its highest close since 10/12. NVDA fell −1.17% to $215.38 and TSM rose +0.60%.
Hyperscalers during the session: META fell −1.24% to $612.49, its lowest close since 9/3. MSFT was −0.06%, GOOGL +1.34% and AMZN +0.59%.
After the bell:
GOOGL: revenue was $127.6B (+25%). Google Cloud grew +103% to $30.7B. EPS of $2.12 included an $8.7B unrealized investment loss. Alphabet held its 2026 capex unchanged and said it expects a “significant increase” in 2027. Free cash flow was reportedly negative. The stock was about −10% in after-hours trading.
MSFT: revenue was $92.28B, against $90.63B expected. Capex was $39.37B, against $45.93B expected. The stock was about +3–5% after hours.
LITE: up about +11% after hours, to roughly $1,015, on reported acquisition talks with Marvell (MRVL). Neither company had confirmed this at our cutoff.
Power: XLU −0.84%, VST −2.69% ($142.72), NRG +1.78% ($96.97).
Oil: WTI was about $100–102 after easing on Tuesday.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $111.97, +2.33%.
Tuesday: +11.15% to $109.42. Over two days: +13.7%.
It closed at its highest level since 10/16 and back above $110, two sessions after its first close below $100.
It is now 43.9% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −53.9%.
UEC $8.34, +3.73%.
Tuesday: +8.06%. Over two days: +12.1%.
It closed at its high and at its highest level since 10/12. Volume was 12.6M, about 1.3× its 50-day average. YTD −28.6%.
CCJ $83.84, +1.74%.
Tuesday: +4.22%. Over two days: +6.0%.
It closed at its high and at its highest level since 10/13. It is 9.0% above Friday’s $76.92 low. YTD −8.4%.
Q3 is Friday 10/30. Reports ahead of the print pointed to uranium holding near a six-month high and to developments at Westinghouse, in which Cameco owns a stake.
URA $36.55, +1.92%. Over two days: +6.4%. It closed at its highest level since 10/13. YTD −14.5%.
SPUT
Tuesday 10/27 print:
NAV $21.79, up +1.08%, the largest one-day NAV move in our log. NAV YTD is +10.08%.
Price $19.18. Discount −11.98%, narrower by 197bp and the narrowest since 10/9 (−11.62%).
Implied spot about $90.79/lb, up from $89.80 on Friday and a new high in our log.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.09% to $19.39, the highest close since 10/7. If NAV held at $21.79, the discount would be about −11.0% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $81.68/lb.
For reference: Cameco’s published monthly prices as of 9/30 were $89.63 spot and $96.50 long-term. Implied spot is now above the September spot average.
What this means: two weeks ago the vehicle and the equities fell while physical uranium held. This week physical uranium rose, the discount narrowed, and the fuel names rose the most. Uranium itself is leading the equities, not lagging them.
03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
BWXT $134.96, +0.66%.
Tuesday: +2.19%. Range today $131.90–$136.00.
It is 39 cents below its 10/5 close and still first in the ranking (~−4%). YTD −21.9%.
CEG $258.08, −0.35%.
Tuesday: +2.57%. Range today $254.45–$261.88. YTD −26.9%.
It is 3.6% below its 10/5 close.
OKLO $27.12, −0.77%.
Tuesday: +5.36%. Over two days: +4.6%. YTD −62.2%.
It is 6.8% above Monday’s $25.39 low.
SMR $5.67, −0.53%.
Tuesday: +8.16%. Over two days: +7.6%. Volume today was about 0.5× average. YTD −60.0%.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
LITE $913.95, +5.52%.
Tuesday: +5.88%. Over two days: +11.7%.
It closed at its highest level since 10/13, 20.0% below its $1,143.00 record. YTD +148.0%.
After the bell it traded up about 11% on the Marvell report. That would put it above $1,000 for the first time since 10/12.
AAOI $82.22, +6.85%.
Tuesday: +6.96%. It closed at its high and at its highest level since 10/15. YTD +135.9%.
GLW $131.20, +3.88%.
Tuesday: −1.13%. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +49.8%.
CRDO $173.69, +3.74%.
Tuesday: +10.77%. It has recovered 17.9% from Friday’s post-news low of $147.29. YTD +20.7%.
CIEN $363.21, +3.43%.
It closed at its highest level since 10/13. YTD +55.3%.
COHR $239.59, +1.61%.
Tuesday: +6.45%. It closed at its highest level since 10/15. YTD +29.8%.
Since Friday (three sessions): optics +15.7%, against +6.9% for the nuclear basket.
Since 10/6: optics −24.5%, against −18.7% for the nuclear basket. Both have recovered about 7–10 points from last week’s lows.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 10/28. After-hours follow-through on GOOGL, MSFT and the LITE/MRVL report
Thu 10/29: AMZN Q3 · RDDT · ECB and Bank of Japan decisions this week
Fri 10/30: CCJ Q3, the first quarterly report from a basket company in this run
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. This rebound started with physical uranium. Last week’s argument was that physical uranium was holding while the equities fell. On Tuesday, uranium itself rose: NAV +1.08%, implied spot at a new high in our log, and the SPUT discount 197bp narrower. The names closest to the commodity rose the most (LEU and UEC up 12–14% over two days, CCJ +6%). The developers rose on Tuesday and gave some back today. That’s different from the AI-driven rallies of 10/19, 10/21 and 10/26, which never reached the fuel names. The open question for Friday is whether CCJ’s comments on contracting and pricing back up what the market is now pricing.
ii. The Fed’s dissents leaned hawkish, but this market barely reacted. Two officials wanted a hike, and the 10-yr rose 6bp. The basket still rose 1%. That fits what we’ve seen since 10/22: rates aren’t the main driver for these names right now. The commodity is, and so is the AI capex debate.
iii. The hyperscaler reports pointed in different directions, and once again power didn’t trade on them.Alphabet’s signal of a much bigger 2027 budget is, on paper, the strongest demand signal for power this month. Microsoft spending less than expected points the other way. After hours, the market moved GOOGL, MSFT and LITE sharply and left CEG, VST and the nuclear names roughly where they closed. AMZN tomorrow is the last big capex report before CCJ on Friday.
Corrections
LEU’s 10/26 low: revised in the consolidated data to $96.80 (not $96.89).
UEC’s 10/23 low: the $6.75 print flagged in Edition 022 is still in the data and still unconfirmed. Since then UEC has traded as low as $7.14 (10/26).
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Two-day and three-day figures compound the daily moves. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Highest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. After-hours prices were pulled at about 6:45pm ET and are thinly traded. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
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