Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
SEQH Capital Research · Trading & Research Desk
Edition 003 · Tuesday, September 29, 2026 · Post-close
Prices as of 4:00 PM ET close unless stamped otherwise.
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The test day came, and both names passed. UEC and BWXT gave the complex its first real numbers in two weeks, and the sector stopped falling.
Yields made another run higher. The 10-year topped 5.29% intraday, and the 30-year printed a fresh 24-year high. Conference Board consumer confidence came in well below the ~90 consensus. The indexes absorbed it: the S&P 500 fell 0.16% to 7,670.84, the Nasdaq 0.09% to 26,797.54 and the Dow 0.26% to 51,349.92.
In our coverage, the same five-name nuclear basket that lost 2.96% on Monday gained 0.30% today, 46 bp better than the S&P. That’s the first day it has beaten the index this week. BWXT printed a new 52-week low of $133.21 in the morning, then reversed 3.6% off the low to close +2.72% after its Investor Day targets. UEC reported fiscal-year results, gapped up 7.6% at the open, faded, and still closed green on 1.9x normal volume. Optics were the day’s standout, rebounding about 4–6% after a Monday selloff.
Three takeaways:
Fundamentals got a vote for the first time in a week. BWXT guided to $5.5–6.0B of 2030 revenue and $1.1–1.2B of EBITDA, and the stock reversed off a 52-week low. UEC realized $93.13/lb, above spot.
The physical-vs-equity gap is still widening. SPUT closed Monday at a −13.63% discount, the widest in our tracking, even as implied spot held at $89.57.
Optics bounced harder than anything else in our coverage. LITE gained ~5.7% as the market reconsidered Citi’s forecast of an $11B optical-switching market by 2030, a day after the group sold off despite it.
Key numbers
U3O8 spot (SPUT-implied): $89.57/lb · 9/28 · flat vs. $89.61 on 9/25
SPUT discount: −13.63% at Monday’s close (vs. −11.04% on 9/23)
US 10-year: above 5.29% at the session high
Nuclear basket (5 names): +0.30% vs. S&P −0.16%
BWXT 2030 EBITDA target: $1.1–1.2B · ~20% margin
UEC realized price: $93.13/lb vs. $39.94/lb total cost
01 · Macro Tape
S&P 500: 7,670.84 · ▼ 0.16%
Dow Jones: 51,349.92 · ▼ 131.59 (−0.26%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,797.54 · ▼ 0.09%
US 10-year yield: above 5.29% at the session high · still at 2007 highs
US 30-year yield: fresh 24-year high
Brent crude: eased toward ~$100 intraday, after settling ~$105.25 on Monday
What moved it:
Data. Conference Board consumer confidence fell well below expectations as record-high yields, the seventh month of the Iran war and AI worries weighed on households. JOLTS job openings (August) also came out today, ahead of Friday’s September jobs report.
Oil. Saudi Arabia resumed exports through its East-West pipeline, and U.S. and Iranian officials met with mediators, which took some pressure off crude.
AI. Reuters reported details from Anthropic’s leaked IPO prospectus, including a valuation target of up to $2T and roughly $518B of infrastructure obligations. The WSJ reported OpenAI shelved a frontier model after internal safety testing. Nvidia authorized a $150B buyback, the largest single authorization ever. Tech CEOs met the President at a White House luncheon.
Why it matters to us: a single AI lab disclosing ~$518B in infrastructure commitments is the size of demand the nuclear build-out is being priced against. That demand, not the equity tape, is where the power-demand thesis lives.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
Physical market: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U / SRUUF)
NAV per unit (9/28): $21.51 · ▼ $0.01 (−0.05%)
Market price (9/28 close): $18.58, a −13.63% discount, the widest in our tracking (−11.04% on 9/23, −11.72% on 9/25)
Tuesday close (3:59 PM): $18.67 · ▲ 0.48%, about −13.2% vs. Monday NAV
U3O8 held: 81,697,348 lb, unchanged since 9/23, so no purchases or new units issued
Uranium value at market: $7.318B
Implied $/lb at Tuesday’s price: ≈ $78.65, excluding cash
NAV YTD: +8.66%
The curve. SPUT-implied spot has barely moved: $89.82 on 9/23, then $89.61 and $89.57. That is a $0.25/lb drift. Over the same stretch, SPUT’s discount widened 259 bp. The physical market is stable. The selling is in the investment vehicles that hold it.
UEC · Fiscal 2026 results (year ended July 31)
Close: $9.29 · ▲ 0.87%. It opened at $9.91 (+7.6%) and traded between $8.98 and $9.94, a 10.7% intraday range, against the ~9% move options had priced. Volume was 16.8M shares, about 1.9x average. The $8.98 low sits just above the $8.91 52-week low.
Production: 229,294 lb in FY26 (359,260 lb since commissioning), with Q4 output up more than 150% quarter over quarter.
Costs: $34.24/lb cash cost and $39.94/lb total cost.
Sales: 400,000 lb at a realized $93.13/lb, $3.56 above today’s SPUT-implied spot. That produced $37.3M of revenue and $16.9M of gross profit.
Balance sheet: $753M of liquid assets and no debt, down from $794M at Q3. That’s about 16% of the $4.60B market cap. The net loss was $137.3M.
Next leg: final approvals for four more header houses came on 9/28, and 17 drill rigs are running in Wyoming’s Powder River Basin.
Desk math on UEC:
The margin is real, but it isn’t all from production. Realized price minus total cost is $53.19/lb, a 57% margin. But UEC sold 400,000 lb while producing 229,294 lb, so ~171K lb came out of inventory.
Scale is the open question. UEC affirmed it can fully supply the NNSA’s request for 4 Mlb/yr of U.S.-origin uranium. That is 17.4x its FY26 output, against ~12 Mlb/yr of licensed capacity. FY26 production ran at about 1.9% of that licensed capacity.
Other uranium equities (Tuesday close)
CCJ: $86.88 · ▼ 0.18%. Range 86.03–88.61 on 1.82M shares. 35.8% below its 52-week high of 135.24. Consensus target $127.77 (+47.1%). At a $50B Westinghouse valuation, Cameco’s 49% stake (~$24.5B) equals about 65% of its $37.95B market cap.
LEU: $138.18 · ▼ 1.56%. 1.7% above the $135.85 52-week low, and 30.8% below the $199.64 price of its September share offering. Consensus target $247.40 (+79.0%). Correction to Edition 002: Monday’s final close was $140.37 (−4.56%); we had published a 3:29 PM print.
03 · Reactors, SMRs & Power
BWXT · Investor Day: targets reset the story
Close: $138.01 · ▲ 2.72%. It opened at $137.24, set a new 52-week low of $133.21, then ran to $143.00 before settling. Volume was 1.58M shares. Market cap $12.64B.
2026 guidance: revenue of ~$3.8B, in line with the $3.81B consensus. Adjusted EBITDA of $662–672M, above the $645–660M it initially guided in February. Free cash flow of $345–360M, above February’s $305–320M.
2030 targets: revenue of $5.5–6.0B, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1–1.2B at a ~20% margin, and free cash flow of $525–575M.
Desk math on BWXT’s targets:
Growth rates, 2026 to 2030: revenue grows at a 9.7–12.1% compound annual rate, EBITDA at ~14.6% (midpoint to midpoint) and free cash flow at ~11.8%.
Margins: EBITDA margin goes from ~17.6% in 2026 to ~20% in 2030.
Valuation: at today’s $12.64B market cap, the stock trades at ~23x 2030 free cash flow (a ~4.4% yield) and 2.8% on 2026 free cash flow. The consensus target of $222.07 implies +60.9%.
Read: this is the first time the reactor-supply-chain trade has had a 2030 cash-flow target to price against. The reversal off a 52-week low on 1.6M shares suggests the market was waiting for exactly that.
Developers
SMR: $7.76 · ▼ 1.90%. It closed at the day’s low ($7.75) for the second straight session. Volume was 29.6M shares (vs. 30.0M Monday). Down 7.8% over two sessions and 7.6% above the $7.21 52-week low. Market cap $3.33B. UBS’s $6 Sell target implies −22.7% from here.
OKLO: $37.11 · unchanged. Range 36.83–38.20 on 7.53M shares. 7.9% above its 52-week low. Market cap $6.90B. Next earnings ~11/10.
Read: the market is separating names that have cash flow from names that don’t. BWXT (+2.7%) and UEC (+0.9%) had numbers to show and rose. SMR (−1.9%) and OKLO (flat) have no near-term cash flow and got no bid. Pre-revenue developers are likely to trail until either rates or a customer contract changes.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
Late-session prints; final closes may differ slightly.
LITE: ~$973.49 · ▲ ~5.7%. Still 10.3% below its 52-week high of 1,085.68. Its fiscal Q1 revenue guide is $1.225–1.275B. Optical circuit switch shipments doubled from fiscal Q3 to Q4, and management expects its first quarter of more than $100M in switch revenue in fiscal Q1.
COHR: ~$292.20 · ▲ ~3.5%.
AAOI: ~$100.67 · ▲ ~4.0%.
GLW: ~$158.69 · ▲ ~4.7%.
LYTE (Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF): ~$24.68 · ▲ ~3.6%.
The four-name basket (LITE, COHR, AAOI, GLW) gained ~4.4% while the S&P fell 0.16%, a ~460 bp outperformance.
Read: on Monday, Citi forecast optical circuit switching becoming an $11B market by 2030, and the group sold off anyway. Today’s percentage gains imply Monday closes of roughly −2% for LITE and −4.5% for COHR and AAOI. Today the market reconsidered: buyers came back to the whole group (lasers, transceivers and fiber) while the S&P was flat. Arm (+5%) and Marvell (+4%) rebounded alongside, and Oracle rallied ~7% intraday, a week after its data-center force-majeure notice.
Nvidia’s $150B buyback and the ~$518B infrastructure figure in Anthropic’s leaked prospectus suggest the AI spending cycle is still accelerating. Optics is the stock group that trades most directly on that. The risk is the same as ever: this group moves on sector flows. Monday’s −2% to −4.5% and today’s +4–6% happened with no change to the underlying order books.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Wed 9/30: August PCE inflation (macro)
Wed 9/30: BWXT management meeting hosted by William Blair (BWXT)
Thu 10/1: ISM manufacturing (macro)
Fri 10/2: September jobs report (macro)
This week: Micron earnings, the AI hardware read-through (MU → LITE, COHR, AAOI)
Oct (TBD): Westinghouse public IPO filing possible, per Bloomberg (CCJ, BEP)
Oct FOMC: hike odds remain firm
Fri 10/30: Cameco Q3 results (CCJ)
Early Nov (estimated): BWXT (~11/2), LEU (~11/4), SMR and LITE (~11/5), OKLO (~11/10)
06 · Desk Read: What We’re Watching
i. BWXT just gave the sector something to value. A company with a stated $1.1–1.2B 2030 EBITDA target, trading at ~23x its 2030 free cash flow, can now be valued on those numbers. The −44% drawdown from the high happened without them. If the stock holds today’s reversal through PCE and payrolls, the de-rating in cash-generating nuclear names is likely done. The pre-revenue names are a separate question.
ii. UEC’s print was good but raises a question about scale. A $93.13/lb realized price and a 57% margin validate the unhedged strategy. But producing 229K lb against ~12 Mlb/yr of licensed capacity, and supporting the NNSA’s 4 Mlb/yr requirement, depends on how fast new header houses come online. Watch the wellfield ramp, not the realized price.
iii. The SPUT discount keeps widening. It went from −11.04% to −13.63% in three sessions while spot moved $0.25. SPUT can’t buy uranium at this discount, so there’s no fund buying underneath the spot price either. That leaves the long-term price (a record $96) resting on utility contracting alone. A single sizable utility RFP would matter more than any equity move this week.
Method
SPUT-implied spot = market value of U3O8 held ÷ pounds held.
$/lb at market = unit price ÷ pounds per unit (0.2374 lb), excluding cash.
Baskets are equal-weighted simple averages. The nuclear basket is CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT, the same five names as Edition 002. The photonics basket is LITE, COHR, AAOI and GLW.
CAGRs use guidance midpoints unless a range is shown.
Where a close was not verified at publication, the line shows the last verified print with its stamp.
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures come from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; verify before acting. Past performance does not indicate future results.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Wednesday 9/30, post-close