Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 020 · Thursday, October 22, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
META turned last night’s after-hours gain into a −6.98% close, and the AI trade broke again. The SOX fell −6.72%. Optics fell −10.92%, its worst day of this run. The 10-yr fell about 20bp to 4.95% and the nuclear basket still fell −3.93%. Investors bought utilities (XLU +2.07%) and sold AI-power generators: VST −9.81%, BWXT −5.78%, CEG −5.74%, NRG −5.43%. Every tracked nuclear name except CEG closed at its lowest level in a year.
META’s Q3 revenue beat. Then it announced plans to issue non-voting stock alongside a 2-for-1 split, which revived concern about how much capital it is committing. As the first hyperscaler to report, it set the tone for the question of whether AI earnings justify AI spending. The Nasdaq fell −2.60% and the S&P −1.21%, while the Dow was flat (+0.02%) and the Russell 2000 rose (+0.11%). Investors moved into bonds: the 10-yr closed below 5% for the first time since September, on what was tracking as its biggest one-day drop in more than two years. Brent hit about $111–113, its highest since May. Gold fell 2.6% and VIX rose 14% to 19.03.
Inside the nuclear basket, today’s order ran opposite to the usual one. The names that have held up best fell the most: BWXT −5.78% (new 52-week low, 1.4× volume) and CEG −5.74%. The developers fell the least: OKLO −2.60% and SMR −2.18%. Both developers set new lows at the open and then closed above their opening prices.
Three takeaways
Rates fell 20bp and nuclear still fell 3.9%. On 10/14 and 10/15 the developers tracked rates almost one for one. Today the 10-yr had its biggest drop in our window and the basket fell anyway. The selling is now about AI demand, not about rates.
Investors bought utilities and sold generators. XLU rose to its highest close since 9/9. CEG lagged XLU by about 781bp and VST by about 1,190bp. NRG closed at its lowest level in a year. The market is separating regulated utilities from power companies whose stocks priced in AI demand.
The cumulative ranking held for a thirteenth session. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−38%, BWXT ~−78%, CCJ ~−154%, UEC ~−246%, LEU ~−300%, OKLO ~−347%, SMR ~−677%. The order is the same as before, even though today’s daily moves ran in the opposite order. CEG is back below its 10/5 close after one session above it.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −3.93%. S&P −1.21%. Gap −272bp. The basket is −18.1% below its 10/5 close
Optics, six names −10.92%, the worst day of the run. SOX −6.72%
New 52-week lows: BWXT $124.79 · LEU $102.21 · OKLO $26.31 · SMR $5.23 · URA $33.91
Lowest closes in a year: CCJ $78.93 · UEC $7.48 and every name above
META −6.98% to $648.85. VST −9.81%. XLU +2.07%
10-yr 4.95% (about −20bp). VIX 19.03 (+14.1%). Brent ~$111–113
SPUT units −2.97% to $18.30. Estimated discount about −15.3%
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,867.98, +11.89 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 7,663.43, −93.74 (−1.21%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,008.86, −694.00 (−2.60%), its lowest close since 9/16
Russell 2000 2,784.03, +3.01 (+0.11%)
META:
It closed −6.98% at $648.85, after trading near $727 after hours last night. It opened at $675.79 and fell to $639.69.
On top of the Q3 results, it announced plans to issue non-voting stock and a 2-for-1 split.
Volume was 40.4M, about 2.1× average. YTD −1.7%.
Chips:
The SOX fell −6.72% to its lowest close since 7/29.
NVDA fell −4.40% (to $212.21), MU −6.26% (to $856.49) and TSM −4.52% (to $412.35).
LRCX, AMAT and KLAC fell about 6–9% at their worst. CoreWeave fell about 10%.
TSLA: adjusted EPS was $0.48 against $0.44 expected. Revenue was $28.05B against $28.13B expected. The stock closed −3.08%.
Rates:
The 10-yr closed at 4.95% (about −20bp), its first close below 5% since September and its lowest since 9/17.
Intraday reports called it on pace for its biggest one-day drop in more than two years. The 30-yr was about 5.3%.
Investors bought bonds as a safe haven while worries about slower AI buildouts outweighed worries about inflation from oil.
Data: initial jobless claims were 194K, the fewest in three months.
Oil: Brent rose about 2–4% to roughly $111–113, its highest since May. That followed attacks on a Saudi airport and an Aramco field, and a New York Times report that the U.S. and Israel are planning renewed strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms. December WTI was about $98–99.
Other assets: gold fell about −2.6% and bitcoin about −4%. VIX closed at 19.03 (+14.1%), with an intraday high of 20.31.
Power:
XLU rose +2.07% to $42.87, its highest close since 9/9.
VST fell −9.81% to $140.83 on 12.4M shares, about 2.3× average.
NRG fell −5.43% to $94.38, its lowest close in a year.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
BWXT $127.30, −5.78%.
It opened at $132.19 (−2.2%) and fell to a new 52-week low of $124.79, well below the prior $131.60. It closed at its lowest level in a year.
Volume was 1.62M, about 1.4× its 50-day average. It was the basket’s worst performer today. YTD −26.3%.
It is now −5.9% below its 10/5 close and −12.6% since 10/6. We found no company release.
CEG $255.21, −5.74%.
It opened at $269.00 and fell all session, closing 5.1% below the open. Range $253.37–$269.02.
It closed at its lowest level since 9/30, and 4.6% below its 10/5 close. Wednesday’s move back above that level lasted one day.
Market cap is about $90B. Volume was about 1.1× average. YTD −27.8%.
OKLO $27.01, −2.60%.
It opened at $26.44 (−4.7%) and set a new 52-week low of $26.31, then closed 2.2% above its open, though still at its lowest close in a year.
Volume was about 0.8× average. YTD −62.4%.
SMR $5.38, −2.18%.
It opened at $5.26 (−4.4%) and set a new 52-week low of $5.23, then closed 2.3% above its open, at its lowest close in a year.
Volume was about 0.8× average. YTD −62.0%. Since 10/6, −32.9%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
UEC $7.48, −5.32%.
Range $7.40–$7.77. This was its lowest close in a year, below the $7.70 close of 10/14. It held above the $7.27 intraday low from 10/15.
YTD −36.0%. It is −20.0% below its 10/5 close.
LEU $104.15, −4.37%.
It opened at $104.54 (−4.0%) and set a new 52-week low of $102.21. It closed at its lowest level in a year.
It is 47.8% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −57.1%.
CCJ $78.93, −3.77%.
Range $78.27–$80.46. This was its lowest close in a year, below the $79.44 close of 11/21/2025. It held above the $77.70 intraday low from earlier in the year.
Volume was 4.05M, about 1.4× average. YTD −13.7%.
URA $34.09, −4.11%. It set a new 52-week low of $33.91 and closed at its lowest level in a year. YTD −20.2%.
SPUT
Wednesday 10/21 print:
NAV $21.61 (unchanged). Price $18.86. Discount −12.73%, matching our estimate.
Implied spot about $90.02/lb, unchanged for three sessions.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell −2.97% to $18.30 and closed at the day’s low. That’s the lowest close since 10/14. If NAV held at $21.61, the discount would be about −15.3% (our estimate), close to the −15.51% low of 10/14. At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $77.09/lb.
What this means: for the first time this week, the physical vehicle sold off with the equities. Uranium itself (NAV) is unchanged. What fell was the price investors will pay for exposure to it.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
COHR $207.82, −12.51%.
Range $204.38–$224.56. It closed at its lowest level since 1/26.
Volume was 12.4M, about 1.8× average. YTD +12.6%. Since 10/6, −38.6%.
AAOI $68.07, −11.96%.
Range $66.33–$73.15. It closed at its lowest level since 2/26. Volume was about 1.5× average.
YTD +95.3%. Since 10/6, −47.7%.
LITE $752.54, −11.54%.
It opened at $804.06 (−5.5%) and fell to $746.23. It closed at its lowest level since 7/31.
It is 34.2% below its $1,143.00 record. YTD +104.2%.
CIEN $322.64, −10.71%.
It closed at its lowest level since 9/14, giving back all of Wednesday’s +5.7% and more. YTD +38.0%.
CRDO $162.77, −10.70%.
It closed at its lowest level since 9/16. YTD +13.1%.
GLW $123.99, −8.10%.
It closed at its lowest level since 3/6. Volume was about 1.4× average. YTD +41.6%.
The pattern: every name closed within 2.7% of its low, and volume was above average across the group. The previous worst day of the run was 10/14 (−9.21%). Wednesday’s leaders, CRDO and CIEN, gave back all of that day’s gains.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −33.4% on average, against −23.3% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 10/22
Fri 10/23: our Week in Review edition
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 27–28: FOMC. Market pricing favored a hold before today’s 20bp drop in yields
Oct 29: AMZN Q3, the next hyperscaler capex read
Oct 30: CCJ Q3
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. Last night we asked whether a bigger META capex number would lift power names or only chips. The answer was neither. META spent more and the market treated it as a cost, not as a sign of demand. The selling went straight through the whole AI-infrastructure chain: META −7.0%, SOX −6.7%, optics −10.9%, VST −9.8%, CEG −5.7%, BWXT −5.8%. Our framing in Edition 019, that every capex dollar is future power demand, isn’t how the market is pricing it right now. What matters now is whether the AI spending will pay off.
ii. Falling rates didn’t help nuclear today. Since 10/14 we’ve read the developers as the most rate-sensitive names. Today the 10-yr had its biggest drop in our window and the basket still fell 3.9%. The developers fell the least, though: OKLO and SMR closed above their opening prices after setting new lows, while BWXT and CEG closed near their lows. One way to read it: lower rates did help the long-duration names a bit, but selling tied to AI demand hit the names whose stocks priced in the most AI demand. That turned today’s daily order upside down. The cumulative ranking hasn’t changed.
iii. Investors separated utilities from generators. XLU rose 2.1% to its highest close since September, while CEG, VST and NRG fell 5–10%. Investors bought rate-sensitive regulated utilities and sold the generators whose stocks priced in AI demand. CEG is now 4.6% below its 10/5 close, and NRG is at its lowest close of the year. Amazon (10/29) is the next hyperscaler capex report. Until then, the AI-power group looks likely to keep trading on how investors feel about AI spending, not on the inputs, which haven’t moved: implied spot is unchanged at about $90/lb.
Corrections
META after-hours move (Edition 019): we reported META up about 4–6% after hours on Wednesday. That gain reversed overnight; META opened −3.1% and closed −7.0%. The after-hours prints were real, but they didn’t hold.
META Q3 capex: we cited $34.91B, including finance leases, from one write-up. Another source cites $41.68B. Treat the Q4 implied range ($49–59B) as approximate until it’s checked against META’s 10-Q.
10/21 revisions in the consolidated data: LEU’s low was $107.90 and CIEN’s high $363.97. None of this changes the conclusions.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its 10/12 reported cap. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Friday 10/23, post-close (with Week in Review)