Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
SEQH Capital Research · Trading & Research Desk
Edition 009 · Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · Post-close
Prices as of 4:00 PM ET close unless stamped otherwise.
The Tape in 60 Seconds
Most of Tuesday’s nuclear rally came back out today. The 10-year hit 5.35% intraday, and our five-name basket fell 4.46%.
The 10-year Treasury touched 5.35% this morning, a new high since 2002, and the 30-year also hit its highest level since 2002. Both pulled back after a well-received $39B 10-year auction, with the 10-year closing near 5.27% and the 30-year at 5.66%. Minutes from the Fed’s September meeting (when it raised rates to 3.75–4.00%) came out at 2 PM. The S&P 500 fell 0.22% from its record to 7,801.77, the Nasdaq 0.22%, the Dow 0.66% and the Russell 2000 1.31%.
Our five-name nuclear basket gave back 4.46%, about two-thirds of Tuesday’s +6.75%. But it didn’t all go back equally. Yesterday we set a test: names tied directly to existing-reactor spending should hold their gains better than names without that link. Constellation, the company actually receiving Google’s money, kept 98% of Tuesday’s gain after buyers stepped in on a 4.7% intraday drop. NuScale gave back all of it and then some.
The most important number came from the physical market. SPUT’s discount narrowed from −11.49% to −8.04% on Tuesday, a 345 bp move and the narrowest discount in our log.
Three takeaways:
The test mostly passed. Share of Tuesday’s gain kept through Wednesday: CEG 98%, BWXT 60%, LEU 46%, and SMR −3%, giving back more than it gained. The reactor owner held on and the pre-revenue developer didn’t.
The physical uranium trust followed the equities. SPUT’s 345 bp narrowing on Tuesday is the biggest one-day move toward net asset value (NAV) in our log. It answers the question we asked yesterday.
Rates still set the daily direction. Over the last three sessions: yields up and the basket flat, then yields down plus deals and the basket +6.75%, then yields up and the basket −4.46%. The deals raised the floor; the bond market still decides each day’s move.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket (5 names): −4.46% vs. S&P −0.22% · week-to-date +2.59% vs. S&P +1.02%
US 10-year: 5.35% intraday high (24-year high) · ~5.27% close
SPUT discount: −8.04% (10/6) · ▲ 345 bp in one session
SPUT market price: $19.79 · ▲ 3.83%
CEG: −0.27% · kept 98% of Tuesday’s gain
Russell 2000: −1.31%, the worst of the major indexes
01 · Macro Tape
S&P 500: 7,801.77 · ▼ 17.16 (−0.22%)
Dow Jones: 51,179.87 · ▼ 341.41 (−0.66%) · mostly one stock (Caterpillar)
Nasdaq Composite: 27,538.69 · ▼ 61.20 (−0.22%)
Russell 2000: 2,793.36 · ▼ 36.94 (−1.31%)
US 10-year: 5.35% intraday high (highest since 2002) · ~5.27% close after the auction
US 30-year: highest since 2002 intraday · 5.66% close
Crude oil: rallied toward $100, then closed ~1.3% lower
Gold: $4,130.80 · ▼ 1.34%
Sector leader: utilities
Read: the 10-year rose about 6–7 bp from Tuesday’s close to this morning’s high before the auction pulled it back. Small caps, which are the most sensitive to rates, fell 1.31%, six times the S&P’s decline. Most of our basket trades like small caps: market caps of $3.3B–$13B, apart from CCJ at $38.8B. That’s why a 0.22% index dip became a 4.46% drop for us.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
Google–Constellation: the primary-source details are now out
The deal: a 20-year power purchase agreement to bring 890 MW of new nuclear capacity onto the PJM grid, per the companies’ Business Wire release. Constellation will invest more than $4.3B to deliver it, per Bloomberg and Yahoo Finance.
The bigger contract: Reuters reports Google contracted 3,590 MW from Constellation in PJM in total, with new nuclear making up about a quarter (890 MW ≈ 24.8%).
Scale: the WSJ calls it the largest uprate deal ever signed between a nuclear operator and a tech company.
Desk math, now confirmed by the primary source: $4.3B ÷ 890 MW ≈ $4.8/W for new output from existing reactors, vs. ≈ $12.7/W for a new build under the Korea framework.
Spillover: Reuters reported Australian uranium miners had their best session in weeks on Wednesday on the deal.
The retention test: how much of Tuesday’s gain each name kept through Wednesday
CEG: $299.59 · ▼ 0.27% · kept 98% of Tuesday’s gain. The intraday low of $286.40 was −4.7%; it closed within 36¢ of the session high. Market cap $106.15B. Q3 results ~11/6.
BWXT: $141.54 · ▼ 2.86% · kept 60%. Range 139.40–144.91 on 1.24M shares. Market cap $12.97B, about 23.6x the midpoint of its 2030 free-cash-flow target.
LEU: $147.14 · ▼ 4.38% · kept 46% (see Section 03).
OKLO: $36.82 · ▼ 4.49% · kept 33%. Range 35.97–37.39 on 9.01M shares. Market cap $6.85B.
CCJ: $89.07 · ▼ 4.25% · kept 29% (see Section 03).
UEC: $9.47 · ▼ 6.33% · kept 16% (see Section 03).
SMR: $7.67 · ▼ 4.36% · kept −3%, closing below Monday’s $7.68. The intraday low of $7.39 sits 2.5% above its 52-week low. Volume was 38.6M shares, the second-heaviest in our log after Tuesday’s 44.4M.
Read: the two ends of the list matched our expectation. CEG, the company receiving the cash, held almost all of its gain and buyers absorbed a 4.7% intraday drop. SMR, the pre-revenue developer with no link to the deal, gave back everything on heavy volume. That fails the test we set yesterday: SMR didn’t hold above $8. Tuesday’s 44M-share session looks like a sentiment rally, not the start of accumulation.
The middle of the list was the surprise. We expected the fuel names (CCJ, UEC) to hold up better than OKLO, and they didn’t. Our read: uprates do raise fuel demand, but the extra reload demand doesn’t show up until late this decade. The market seems to have discounted that timing quickly.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
Physical market: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U / SRUUF)
Market price (10/6 close): $19.79 · ▲ 3.83% (from $19.06)
NAV per unit (10/6): $21.52 · ▼ 0.07%
Discount: −8.04%, a 345 bp narrowing in one session and the narrowest in our log
Discount path: −13.63% (9/28) → −13.21% → −12.99% → −11.69% → −11.00% → −11.49% → −8.04%
SPUT-implied spot: $89.62/lb · ▼ $0.06
Implied $/lb at market price: ≈ $83.37, excluding cash (up from $78.65 on 9/29)
Gap to parity: the trust’s price needs about +8.7% relative to NAV to reach a premium, the level at which it can raise money and buy uranium
U3O8 held: 81,697,348 lb, unchanged
NAV YTD: +8.71%
Read: yesterday we said Tuesday’s SPUT print would show whether the physical vehicle joined the equity move. It did. The trust’s price rose 3.83% while NAV slipped, which means investors paid up for physical uranium exposure on the same day the deals landed. Spot itself didn’t move ($89.62). The demand showed up in the vehicle, not the commodity.
Today’s SPUT print (10/7), not yet published, is the follow-up. If the discount holds near −8% while uranium equities fell 4–6%, that suggests the physical buyers weren’t simply chasing momentum.
Equities (Wednesday close)
UEC: $9.47 · ▼ 6.33%. Range 9.39–9.83 on 8.96M shares, about half Tuesday’s volume. Back below $10. Market cap $4.69B.
LEU: $147.14 · ▼ 4.38%. Range 142.78–149.10 on 843K shares. Still 26.3% below its $199.64 September offering price. Market cap $3.01B.
CCJ: $89.07 · ▼ 4.25%. Range 88.85–91.11 on 3.76M shares, closing near the low. Market cap $38.78B. At a $50B Westinghouse valuation, Cameco’s ~$24.5B stake is about 63% of its market cap.
Read: volume fell sharply on the selloff. UEC traded 55% of Tuesday’s volume and CCJ 63%. Heavy buying on Tuesday followed by lighter selling today looks more like profit-taking than investors reversing their view.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
Closes for LITE, COHR, AAOI and CRDO were not verified for Tuesday or Wednesday at publication. Last verified close: LITE $1,091.67 on Monday 10/5.
Read: the Nasdaq fell only 0.22% and Nvidia slipped from an all-time high, so there was no sign of broad AI-hardware stress at the index level today. We’ll update the optics group once we have verified closes.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Thu 10/8: SPUT’s 10/7 print, to see whether the −8.04% discount held through the equity selloff
TBD: details of the DOE–Vistra loan and which reactors it covers (VST)
TBD: BWXT–Prodigy definitive agreement (BWXT)
TBD: formal signing of the U.S.–Korea framework (CCJ, BEP)
Oct (TBD): possible Westinghouse public IPO filing (CCJ, BEP)
Oct (before FOMC): September CPI
Oct 20–21: World Nuclear Supply Chain conference, Manila
Tue–Wed 10/27–28: FOMC meeting; decision Wednesday 10/28
Fri 10/30: Cameco Q3 results (CCJ)
Mon 11/2, after close: BWX Technologies Q3 results (BWXT)
~Wed 11/4: Centrus Q3 results (LEU)
Thu 11/5: Lumentum fiscal Q1 results; NuScale Q3 call, 5:00 PM ET
~Fri 11/6: Constellation Q3 results (estimated) (CEG); October jobs report
~Tue 11/10: Oklo Q3 results (OKLO)
06 · Desk Read: What We’re Watching
i. The market is pricing the existing-reactor trade in the right order, mostly. The ends of the retention ranking (CEG 98% kept, SMR −3%) match the business-model ordering we’ve described since Edition 006: reactor owners first, then the supply chain, with developers last. The middle didn’t fit: CCJ and UEC gave back more than OKLO. Our read is that the fuel-demand benefit of uprates is real but arrives too late to price in at a 5.3% 10-year yield. We’ll watch whether CCJ’s Oct. 30 call puts numbers on that.
ii. SPUT −8.04% is the most important data point of the week. Seven readings ago the discount was −13.63%. It has narrowed 559 bp since then, and 345 bp of that came in the one session when real money (Google, the DOE) committed to existing reactors. The physical vehicle is responding to fundamentals, not just following uranium miners lower. Tomorrow’s print tells us whether it held while the equities sold off.
iii. The deals moved the floor; yields still drive each day. Week-to-date the basket is +2.59% vs. +1.02% for the S&P, so the deals left it higher overall. But each day’s direction this week has followed the 10-year: flat with yields up Monday, sharply up with yields down Tuesday, down with yields up today. Until the 10-year stops making new highs, our high-beta names will keep amplifying the bond market in both directions.
Correction to Edition 008: Constellation closed Tuesday at $300.40 (+12.2%). We published ~$304.76 (+13.9%) from an intraday S&P top-gainers list. The Google deal figures (890 MW, $4.3B, 20 years) are now confirmed by the companies’ release and Bloomberg; Edition 008 cited secondary reports.
Method
SPUT-implied spot = market value of U3O8 held ÷ pounds held.
$/lb at market = unit price ÷ pounds per unit (0.2374 lb), excluding cash.
Baskets are equal-weighted simple averages of verified closes. The nuclear basket is CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. Week-to-date runs from the 10/2 close.
Retention = Wednesday’s change ÷ Tuesday’s change, in dollars per share. 100% means the full Tuesday gain was kept; a negative number means the stock gave back more than it gained.
The $/W comparison uses the disclosed $4.3B and 890 MW. The Korea framework $/W uses approximate standard unit ratings.
Where a close was not verified at publication, the line says so.
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures come from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; verify before acting. Past performance does not indicate future results.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Thursday 10/8, post-close