Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 025 · Friday, October 30, 2026 · Post-close · Week in Review
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
CCJ was the first basket company to report in this run, and the stock fell −7.88% on 3.1× its average volume. It hit a new 52-week low of $73.89 and closed at its lowest level in a year. The quarter showed an adjusted loss, narrower 2026 production guidance, and a realized uranium price of US$65.78/lb, against about $92/lb implied spot. On the same day, Intel fell about 29% (its worst day since 1974), the SOX fell −7.20%, the Nasdaq −2.86%, and the VIX touched 23.93. The nuclear basket fell −5.88% and gave back most of its gains for the week. It still finished the week +1.2%.
CCJ’s quarter (C$ unless noted):
Revenue was $619M, roughly flat. Adjusted EPS was $0.00, against $0.07 a year ago.
Gross profit fell 28% to $122M. Operating cash flow was $3M, against $156M a year ago.
Uranium sales volume fell 8% to 5.6M lb.
2026 production guidance narrowed to 19.5–20.5M lb, from 19.5–21.5M, because of a Key Lake maintenance outage.
Cameco’s share of Westinghouse adjusted EBITDA rose 15% for the quarter but is down 25% for the first nine months.
Every basket name fell at least 5%. CEG held up best (−0.83%) as utilities rose again (XLU +0.67%).
Optics fell −8.98% in the chip selloff. AAOI fell −12.8% and COHR −11.3%. MRVL fell −10.1% to its lowest close since 8/3, down 14% for the week since the Lumentum report. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-yr at 4.93%, its lowest since 9/9. Oil rose: WTI about $104, Brent about $118 (intraday).
Three takeaways
CCJ’s quarter shows how far its contract book trails spot. It realized US$65.78/lb, about $26/lb (28%) below implied spot of about $92. Cameco says its contracts cover more than 28M lb a year over the next five years. Coverage is above its average for 2026–28 and below average for 2029–30. That means the gain from today’s spot price mostly shows up in contracts that haven’t been signed yet.
Uranium itself hasn’t sold off. NAV was $22.09 through Thursday, up 2.5% for the week. The SPUT units fell only −0.41% today, on 8.4× their usual volume. CCJ fell because of its own quarter and cash flow, not because of the uranium price.
The ranking held for a nineteenth session, and CEG is back on top. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~−16%, BWXT ~−45%, CCJ ~−190%, UEC ~−216%, LEU ~−307%, OKLO ~−416%, SMR ~−606%.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −5.88% today, +1.2% for the week · S&P −1.82% today, −0.57% for the week
CCJ $76.91 (−7.88%). New 52-week low $73.89. Realized price US$65.78/lb
New 52-week lows: CCJ $73.89 · OKLO $24.49 · URA $33.01
Optics −8.98% · SOX −7.20% · Intel about −29%
SPUT NAV $22.09 (as of 10/29). Implied spot ~$92.05/lb. Units −0.41% on 8.4× volume
10-yr 4.93% (−6bp) · VIX 19.42 (intraday high 23.93) · XLU +0.67%
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 51,770.31 (−1.09%)
S&P 500 7,580.07 (−1.82%), its lowest close since 9/16
Nasdaq Composite 25,437.00 (−2.86%), its lowest close since 7/31
Russell 2000 2,811.84 (−1.66%)
Chips:
Intel fell about 29% on weak Q4 guidance, citing a PC slump and a factory accident in Israel. It was the worst day for the stock since 1974.
The SOX fell −7.20%. AMD fell about 12% intraday, TSM −5.95%, MU −5.30% and NVDA −4.22%, to its lowest close since 7/31.
Headlines put the chip-sector loss at about $1T in market value.
Other tech:
Reddit fell about 29% on soft Q4 guidance.
AMZN closed −1.41% at $240.35 after opening around $232.
GOOGL fell −1.40% and is −12.6% for the week. MSFT fell −1.55% and META −1.53%.
Breadth: about 70% of U.S. issues declined, and the S&P tech sector fell nearly 5%.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.93% (−6bp), its lowest since 9/9. The 2-yr was about 4.57% (−9bp).
Volatility: VIX closed at 19.42 (+12.9%). Its intraday high of 23.93 was near its June levels.
Oil and gold: WTI about $104 and Brent about $118 on tanker attacks and Iran tensions (intraday). Gold about $3,974 (−1.4%).
Power: XLU +0.67% to $43.43, its highest close since 9/8. VST −1.83% and NRG −1.52%.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
CCJ $76.91, −7.88%.
It opened at $75.72 (−9.3%), set a new 52-week low of $73.89, then closed 4.1% above the low but at its lowest close in a year.
Volume was 9.55M, 3.1× its 50-day average. YTD −15.9%. For the week, −2.2%.
Q3 highlights:
Realized price US$65.78/lb, up 6% y/y.
Sales volume 5.6M lb (−8%).
Gross profit C$122M (−28%).
Operating cash flow C$3M (−98%).
2026 production guidance 19.5–20.5M lb, down from 19.5–21.5M, because of the Key Lake outage.
2026 delivery guidance 29.5–30.5M lb, narrowed from 29–32M.
Cash C$860M against C$1.0B of debt. Annual dividend C$0.24.
LEU $103.29, −6.57%. Range $100.81–$104.57. YTD −57.5%. For the week, +0.8%.
UEC $7.71, −5.40%. YTD −34.0%. For the week, +4.9%.
URA $33.73, −5.57%. It set a new 52-week low of $33.01 and closed at its lowest level in a year. Volume was about 1.3× average. YTD −21.1%.
SPUT
Sprott’s 10/30 print wasn’t posted at our cutoff. The latest official figures (10/29) were NAV $22.09, discount −11.77% and implied spot about $92.05/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) fell only −0.41% to $19.41. They traded down to $18.81 intraday, on 192.7K units, about 8.4× the average. If NAV held at $22.09, the discount would be about −12.1% (our estimate).
What this means: CCJ’s realized price ($65.78) and implied spot ($92) are about $26/lb apart. The stock sold off on Cameco’s own operations and cash flow. The vehicle that owns physical uranium held up on heavy volume.
03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
CEG $262.38, −0.83%.
Range $258.57–$267.00. It was the best performer among the tracked nuclear names and is back in first place in the ranking.
YTD −25.7%. For the week, +3.5%.
OKLO $25.25, −5.82%.
It set a new 52-week low of $24.49 and closed at its lowest level in a year.
YTD −64.8%. For the week, −4.2%. Since 10/6, −34.5%.
BWXT $130.70, −5.24%.
Range $129.49–$135.24. It closed back below its 10/5 close of $135.35 after one session above it.
Volume was about 1.1× average. YTD −24.4%. For the week, +2.8%.
SMR $5.62, −5.07%.
Range $5.42–$5.65. YTD −60.3%. For the week, +4.5%.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
AAOI $69.05, −12.80%. Volume was about 1.9× average. YTD +98.1%.
COHR $210.32, −11.34%. Volume was about 1.8× average. YTD +14.0%.
CRDO $150.99, −8.65%. YTD +4.9%.
LITE $840.70, −8.57%.
It traded as low as $805.29. YTD +128.1%.
It is still +11.2% for the week on the reported Marvell talks. Nothing had been announced at our cutoff.
CIEN $320.72, −8.22%. YTD +37.1%.
GLW $123.31, −4.32%. It closed at its lowest level since 3/6. YTD +40.8%.
MRVL fell −10.05% to $196.40, its lowest close since 8/3. It is −14.0% since the Lumentum report.
Since 10/6: the six optics names are down −32.8% on average, against −23.2% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 10/30
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
Nov 3: U.S. midterms
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 (subject to any Marvell announcement) · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
Pending: a possible Marvell–Lumentum announcement (per Bloomberg; unconfirmed) · GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
06 · Desk Read
i. CCJ’s results show the gap between the contract book and spot. Cameco realized $65.78/lb while implied spot was about $92. That gap is how a contract-heavy producer works: it locks in volume at older prices and earns today’s prices only as contracts roll over. Cameco says its book is above average through 2028 and below average in 2029–30. That makes the next round of contracting the lever, more than this quarter’s numbers. The market sold the quarter on cash flow (C$3M operating cash flow) and the Key Lake guidance cut, not on the uranium price.
ii. The commodity and the equities are moving separately again. NAV rose 2.5% this week and held through Thursday. The SPUT units barely moved today on 8× volume. Meanwhile, every uranium equity fell 5–8%. Since 10/9 we’ve seen every combination of physical uranium and equities moving together or apart. What’s consistent is that the price paid for uranium exposure through equities moves far more than the uranium itself.
iii. Next week brings four reports from inside our coverage. BWXT (11/2), LEU (~11/4), SMR (11/5) and CEG (~11/9) all report in the next eight sessions, with OKLO on ~11/10. After CCJ, the question is whether operating cash flow and backlog matter more right now than the AI-power story. This week’s evidence says they do: the names with backlog and cash flow (CEG, BWXT) held up, and the reactor developers and fuel names took the hits.
07 · Week in Review (10/26–10/30)
What happened each day
Mon 10/26: basket +0.27%, optics +5.23%. Anthropic’s S-1 lifted chips and optics. LEU closed below $100 for the first time.
Tue 10/27: basket +5.60%, optics +5.58%. SPUT NAV rose 1.08%, and the fuel names led.
Wed 10/28: basket +0.97%, optics +4.17%. The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% with two dissents in favor of a hike. GOOGL and MSFT reported after the bell, and Marvell–Lumentum talks were reported.
Thu 10/29: basket +0.55%, optics −2.41%. GOOGL fell 12.6% and AMZN reported. BWXT closed back above its 10/5 level.
Fri 10/30: basket −5.88%, optics −8.98%. CCJ fell 7.9% on its results, and Intel fell about 29%.
The week, from Friday 10/23 to today
Indices: S&P −0.57% · Dow −0.85% · Nasdaq −2.00% · Russell 2000 +1.29%
Rates and volatility: 10-yr 4.99% → 4.93% · VIX 19.45 → 19.42
Nuclear basket: +1.2%, compounding the daily moves
Nuclear names: SMR +4.5% · UEC +4.9% · CEG +3.5% · BWXT +2.8% · LEU +0.8% · URA −1.1% · CCJ −2.2% · OKLO −4.2%
Optics: +2.8%, compounding the daily moves. LITE +11.2% · CRDO +2.5% · AAOI +2.3% · COHR +0.5% · CIEN +0.1% · GLW −0.3%
AI and power: GOOGL −12.6% · MRVL −14.0% · META −4.3% · AMZN −3.1% · NVDA −3.0% · XLU +2.0%· NRG +4.1% · VST −1.3%
Physical uranium: NAV $21.56 → $22.09 (+2.5%, through 10/29). Implied spot $89.80 → $92.05/lb. SPUT units +4.6%
Three weeks since 10/9
Nuclear basket −17.5%
Optics −28.9%
What we learned this week
Physical uranium rose on its own, to a new high in our log.
The hyperscaler reports raised questions about cash flow and financing, not about AI demand.
Utilities kept attracting buyers.
The first fundamental report from inside the basket (CCJ) showed how far a contract book can lag the spot price.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Weekly and three-week basket and optics figures compound the daily moves. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. Cameco’s figures are in C$ unless marked US$. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Monday 11/2, post-close