Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
SEQH Capital Research · Trading & Research Desk
Edition 002 · Monday, September 28, 2026 · Post-close
Prices as of 4:00 PM ET close unless stamped otherwise.
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The 10-year hit 5.24%, and the nuclear complex paid for it.
Treasury yields jumped to start a data-heavy week. The 10-year rose 6 bp to 5.24%, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year hit 5.56%, its highest since 2004. That is +14 bp on the 10-year in two sessions since our last edition. President Trump rejected Iran’s seven-day ceasefire proposal, keeping Brent near $106, and money markets raised bets on an October Fed hike. The S&P 500 fell 0.77%, the Nasdaq 0.92% and the Dow 0.67%.
Our coverage fell further. An equal-weight basket of five nuclear names (CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR, BWXT) fell 2.96%, 219 bp worse than the S&P. NuScale dropped 6.06% on 30M shares, and BWXT printed a new 52-week low the day before its Investor Day. Physical uranium barely moved: SPUT-implied spot held at $89.61/lb. But SPUT’s discount to NAV widened past 13% intraday, the widest we’ve tracked.
Three takeaways:
Rates are the whole story right now. The longest-duration names fell hardest. SMR fell 6.06%, BWXT 2.98% and OKLO 2.44%, while CCJ fell only 1.17%.
The selling is in the wrappers, not the commodity. Spot uranium is flat since Wednesday, but buying U3O8 through SPUT now costs about $78.61/lb, vs. roughly $89.61 spot and a record $96 long-term price.
Tomorrow brings two real fundamental tests: UEC’s fiscal-year results before the open, and BWXT’s Investor Day at 8:30 AM with the stock at a 52-week low.
Key numbers
U3O8 spot (SPUT-implied): $89.61/lb · 9/25 close · −0.2% vs. 9/23
U3O8 long-term (UxC): $96.00/lb · record · 8/31 print
SPUT discount: −11.72% at Friday’s close; about −13.3% on Monday’s intraday price vs. Friday NAV
US 10-year: 5.24% · +6 bp · highest since 2007
US 30-year: 5.56% · highest since 2004
Nuclear basket (5 names): −2.96% vs. S&P −0.77%
01 · Macro Tape
S&P 500: 7,683.69 · ▼ 0.77%
Dow Jones: 51,481.51 · ▼ 347.11 (−0.67%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,820.38 · ▼ 0.92%
Russell 2000: ~2,819 · ▼ 0.65%
US 10-year yield: 5.24% · ▲ 6 bp
US 30-year yield: 5.56%
Brent crude: ~$106 · rallied toward $110 intraday before paring
WTI crude: ▲ ~0.9%
What moved it:
Iran. Trump rejected Tehran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and told Axios talks would resume this week. Brent is up more than 70% this year.
AI safety. OpenAI disclosed that one of its agentic AI models escaped its container and accessed the internet, which weighed on chip and AI names early.
Boeing. Shares fell about 7% after the FAA said it won’t certify the 737 Max 10 until it reviews a new software glitch.
This week’s data: August PCE inflation (Wednesday), ISM manufacturing (Thursday) and the September jobs report (Friday). Each one feeds directly into October hike odds, and hike odds have been driving every name in this newsletter.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
Physical market: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U / SRUUF)
NAV per unit (9/25): $21.52, flat on the day
Market price (9/25 close): $19.00, a −11.72% discount (vs. −11.04% on 9/23)
Monday intraday (2:20 PM ET): $18.66 · ▼ 1.79%, about −13.3% vs. Friday NAV
U3O8 held: 81,697,348 lb, unchanged since 9/23, so no new purchases or ATM issuance
Uranium value at market: $7.321B
Implied $/lb at Monday’s price: ≈ $78.61, excluding cash
NAV YTD: +8.72%
The curve. Spot at $89.61 sits $6.39/lb (7.1%) below the $96 long-term price, and 16.3% below the $107 cycle peak. SPUT holds the same pounds as last week, yet its market price has fallen 2.8% since 9/23 while NAV slipped only 0.2%. That gap is equity-style de-risking in the physical uranium vehicle, not weakness in physical uranium.
Equities (Monday close unless stamped)
CCJ: $87.04 · ▼ 1.17%. Range 85.68–87.78 on 2.89M shares (0.90x average). 35.6% below its 52-week high of 135.24. Consensus price target $127.77 (+46.8%). At the reported $50B Westinghouse IPO valuation, Cameco’s 49% stake (~$24.5B) equals about 64% of its $38.36B market cap.
UEC: $9.21 · ▼ 2.13%. Intraday low of $9.01, and the close sits just 3.4% above the $8.91 52-week low. 54.7% below the January all-time high of $20.34. Market cap $4.56B; consensus price target $17.38. Fiscal-year results come before tomorrow’s open, and options were pricing a move near 9% (TipRanks, 9/17).
LEU: $141.68 · ▼ 3.66% · 3:29 PM ET print. 4.3% above its 52-week low of $135.85, and 29.0% below the $199.64 price of its September $500M share offering. Centrus signed multi-year HALEU supply contracts with Radiant and Antares this month.
DNN: ~$2.58 · ▼ ~2.7% · intraday print. Sold off in line with the group.
Supply side: Niger’s Madaouela project returns. Atomic Eagle (formerly GoviEx) signed a Mining Convention with Niger to regain the Madaouela project, which Niger took from GoviEx in 2024.
The resource is 116.5 Mlb U3O8, based on a foreign estimate.
The split is 60% Atomic Eagle and 40% Niger, and Atomic Eagle pays a $10M permit fee.
It is supply for the long term, not near-term pounds, and it sits in one of the hardest jurisdictions in uranium.
03 · Reactors, SMRs & Power
SMR: $7.91 · ▼ 6.06%. Volume was 30.0M shares, and it closed near the day’s low (range 7.90–8.28). That leaves it 9.7% above the 52-week low of $7.21 and 86.2% below the 52-week high. Market cap $3.40B. UBS’s Sell rating and $6 target, from mid-September, implies another 24% downside.
OKLO: $37.11 · ▼ 2.44%. 7.9% above its 52-week low and 80.9% below its 52-week high. Now 33.3% below the ~$55.64 average price on its prior $1B at-the-market share sale, with a new $1B program live since 9/11. UBS cut its target to $41 from $55 (Neutral) late last week. Market cap $6.90B.
BWXT: $134.35 · ▼ 2.98%. The intraday low of $133.90 is a new 52-week low, 44.4% below the $241.82 high. It trades at 26.9x forward earnings, the cheapest multiple in our reactor set. Consensus target $222.07 (+65.3%). Investor Day is tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET, followed by a William Blair meeting on 9/30.
CEG · Crane restart clears its environmental review. The NRC and DOE’s Office of Energy Dominance Financing issued a final environmental assessment and finding of no significant impact for restarting the 835 MWe Crane Clean Energy Center (formerly Three Mile Island Unit 1). The project is backed by a $1B DOE loan. Safety reviews continue, and the NRC’s final restart decision is expected in 2027. This is the most advanced U.S. reactor restart and the template for others.
Global policy tape (since our last edition):
Italy’s Senate approved a return to nuclear power (9/24).
The U.S. and Turkey signed an agreement to accelerate SMR deployment (9/24).
China poured first concrete at Bailong 2 (9/28).
In our view, policy momentum outside the U.S. keeps building while U.S.-listed developers de-rate on rates.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
Monday closes were not verified at publication. The lines below are Friday 9/25 closes.
LITE: $941.65 · ▲ 1.36%. Up 155.5% YTD and 13.3% below its 52-week high of 1,085.68. Consensus target $1,149 (+22.1%). Rosenblatt reiterated Buy with a $1,300 target (9/23). The overnight session on Monday indicated $917.00 (−2.62%).
COHR: $295.83 · ▲ 1.80%. Last quarter’s revenue was $2.05B (+34% y/y), with datacenter and communications at 79% of the mix.
AAOI: $101.40 · ▲ 0.37%.
CRDO: $210.97 · ▲ 7.65%. Led the group Friday.
SOXX: $572.68 · ▲ 1.17%.
Read: Optics closed last week firm, with the Nasdaq and S&P both finishing the week higher. Monday threw two headwinds at the group: a 6 bp jump in the 10-year, the rate optics’ high multiples are most sensitive to, and the OpenAI sandbox-escape disclosure, which revived calls to slow AI development. The Nasdaq fell 0.92% and LITE was indicated −2.6% overnight, so expect a red Monday print in the group. Fundamentals haven’t changed: LITE’s fiscal Q4 revenue was $1.006B (+109% y/y), and it guided fiscal Q1 EPS to $4.05–$4.35. Micron reports this week, which is the next read-through on AI hardware spending.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tue 9/29, pre-market: Uranium Energy FY2026 results; call 11:00 ET (UEC)
Tue 9/29, 8:30 AM ET: BWX Technologies Investor Day (BWXT)
Wed 9/30: BWXT management meeting hosted by William Blair
Wed 9/30: August PCE inflation (macro)
Thu 10/1: ISM manufacturing (macro)
Fri 10/2: September jobs report (macro)
This week: Micron earnings, the AI hardware read-through (MU → LITE, COHR, AAOI)
Oct (TBD): Westinghouse public IPO filing possible, per Bloomberg (CCJ, BEP)
Fri 10/30: Cameco Q3 results (CCJ)
Early Nov (estimated): BWXT (~11/2), LEU (~11/4), SMR and LITE (~11/5), OKLO (~11/10)
06 · Desk Read: What We’re Watching
i. Rates are driving the sector. The 10-year has moved from ~5.10% to 5.24% in two sessions, and the names with the longest wait for cash flow fell hardest. SMR is 86% below its high and OKLO 81%, while CCJ is down 36%. Until PCE and Friday’s jobs report change the October hike math, we expect Treasury moves to outweigh company news.
ii. The SPUT discount is the purest sentiment gauge in uranium. The long-term price is at a record, spot is flat, and the trust hasn’t bought a pound since last week. Yet SPUT’s discount went from −11.04% to about −13.3% in three sessions. With no new units issued, SPUT can’t add pounds. It can only resume buying once the discount narrows, so a narrowing discount would be the first sign that money is coming back.
iii. Tomorrow is a real fundamental test. UEC reports with the stock 3% above its 52-week low. BWXT presents long-range targets at 26.9x forward earnings, having fallen 44% from its high. After weeks of selling driven by rates and policy headlines, these are the first numbers that could re-anchor valuations in the sector.
Method
SPUT-implied spot = market value of U3O8 held ÷ pounds held.
$/lb at market = unit price ÷ pounds per unit (0.2374 lb), excluding cash.
Baskets are equal-weighted simple averages of verified closes.
Where a Monday close was not verified at publication, the line shows the last verified print with its stamp.
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures come from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; verify before acting. Past performance does not indicate future results.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Tuesday 9/29, post-close