Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 018 · Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The rally from Google’s 20-year nuclear deal on 10/6 has now fully reversed. BWXT fell −1.17% to $134.24, its lowest close in a year, and became the last tracked name to drop below its 10/5 close. All seven tracked names are now below their pre-deal levels, and the five-name basket is 15.2% under where it started. SMR, OKLO and LEU set new 52-week lows while the Dow rose 1% and the Russell 2000 1.65%.
The broad market rallied outside big tech. Dow +1.02%, Russell 2000 +1.65%, S&P +0.28%, Nasdaq −0.02%. Earnings helped (NOC, MMM and LLY all rose), and so did crude falling back from near $110 in the morning. The nuclear basket fell −0.64% and optics −0.86%. Utilities rebounded (XLU +1.26%), but CEG fell −1.65% and lagged the sector by about 290bp. On two of the last three days, CEG has fallen while utilities rose.
Intraday, today was the reverse of Monday. Both groups opened lower and recovered. Optics opened about 2.8% lower and closed about 5.1% above its lows. LITE traded down to $785.00, 31.3% below its 10/9 record, and closed at $822.51. SMR opened −5.5% at $5.38 and closed at $5.58. The nuclear names finished on average 2.6% above their lows.
Three takeaways
Every tracked nuclear name is below its 10/5 close. Here is how far each now sits from its pre-deal close: BWXT −0.8%, CEG −3.3%, CCJ −8.0%, UEC −16.3%, LEU −22.3%, OKLO −23.6%, SMR −27.3%. The order is the same as it has been, with owners and suppliers first, fuel second and developers last. All seven are now negative.
The broad rally didn’t reach AI power. The Russell 2000 had what looked like its best day since early August (per midday reports), and healthcare, industrials and homebuilders led. The nuclear basket fell and CEG fell. The rotation went into earnings, value names and stocks that benefit from cheaper oil, not into the power trade.
SPUT’s implied spot rose to about $90.02/lb, the highest in our log, on Monday’s data. The discount was −13.19%. SPUT units have now risen for three of the last four sessions while the equities set new lows.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −0.64%. S&P +0.28%. Dow +1.02%. Russell 2000 +1.65%
The basket is −15.2% below its 10/5 pre-deal close and −20.6% below its 10/6 high close
New 52-week lows: SMR $5.33 · OKLO $26.36 · LEU $106.00
Lowest closes in a year: BWXT $134.24 · SMR $5.58 · LEU $109.88 · URA $35.18. CCJ’s $80.51 is its lowest close since 11/21/2025
Optics −0.86%. LITE’s intraday low of $785.00 is 31.3% below its record
SPUT discount −13.19% (Monday data). Implied spot ~$90.02/lb
10-yr 5.12% (−2bp). VIX 17.31 (−6.1%)
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,495.88, +529.85 (+1.02%), its highest close since 9/11
S&P 500 7,712.57, +21.84 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq Composite 26,424.82, −6.07 (−0.02%)
Russell 2000 2,773.42, +45.12 (+1.65%). Midday reports said it was on pace for its best day since 8/4.
Breadth: about three-quarters of S&P members were trading higher at midday. The gains came from outside megacap tech. The SOX fell −0.29%, NVDA −0.29% (to $216.47) and MU −0.98% (to $896.07). TSM rose +1.16% (to $425.08).
Earnings:
NOC: EPS $7.89 against $7.18 expected; revenue $11.12B, a slight miss. The stock rose.
MMM rose about 6% after beating and raising guidance.
LLY rose about 5.4% to a record high.
GE Aerospace fell on cash-flow concerns.
GM beat expectations and announced a $20B buyback.
After the bell, SpaceX reported Q3 revenue of $14.58B, up 161% y/y.
Housing:
Housing starts were 1.22M annualized (−5.2%), below the 1.30M expected.
Single-family permits were the lowest since 2023.
Mortgage rates were about 7.43%.
Rates and the Fed:
The 10-yr closed at 5.12% (−2bp).
Market pricing favors no change at the Oct 27–28 FOMC, with quarter-point hikes priced for December and March (market-implied, per reports).
Commodities:
Front-month crude neared $110 in the morning and then fell back. December WTI was about $97.99 (−0.6%).
Gold was about $4,141.50 (−0.45%).
Volatility: VIX closed at 17.31, down 6.1%.
Power peers: XLU +1.26%, VST +0.41%, NRG −1.55%.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
BWXT $134.24, −1.17%.
Range $133.74–$137.87. This was its lowest close in a year, 11 cents below the 9/28 close of $134.35.
It is now $1.11 below its 10/5 close, the last tracked name to fall below its pre-deal level.
Volume was 655K, about 0.6× its 50-day average. YTD −22.3%.
CEG $258.84, −1.65%.
Range $257.78–$263.90. It closed at its lowest level since 10/2 ($257.49), and is 3.3% below its 10/5 close.
Its market value is now about $92B. YTD −26.7%.
It fell while XLU rose +1.26%, a gap of about 291bp.
SMR $5.58, −1.93%.
It opened at $5.38 (−5.5%) and set a new 52-week low of $5.33, below last Thursday’s $5.44. It closed 4.7% above the low, but at its lowest close in a year.
Volume was 31.4M, about 0.9× average. YTD −60.6%. Since 10/6, −30.4%.
OKLO $27.48, +0.88%.
It opened at $26.49 (−2.8%), set a new 52-week low of $26.36, then closed 4.3% above it. It was the only basket name to finish up.
Volume was 7.88M, about 0.8× average. YTD −61.7%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $109.88, −0.22%.
It opened at $106.68 (−3.1%), set a new 52-week low of $106.00, then closed 3.7% above it, at its lowest close in a year.
This was its seventh new intraday low in eight sessions.
Volume was 924K, about 1.3× average. It was the only tracked name with above-average volume.
It is 45.0% below the $199.64 offering price. YTD −54.7%.
CCJ $80.51, −0.24%.
Range $79.25–$81.44. This was its lowest close since 11/21/2025 for the second day running.
It held above last Thursday’s intraday low ($78.55). Volume was 2.30M, about 0.8× average. YTD −12.0%.
UEC $7.83, −0.76%.
Range $7.66–$8.00. It held above Thursday’s $7.27 low. YTD −33.0%.
URA $35.18, −0.26%. This was its lowest close in a year. YTD −17.7%.
SPUT
Monday 10/19 print:
NAV $21.61 (+0.02%). Price $18.76. Discount −13.19%, in line with our −13.2% estimate.
Implied spot is about $90.02/lb, a new high in our log. NAV YTD is +9.17%.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +0.69% to $18.89. If NAV held at $21.61, the discount would be about −12.6%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.57/lb.
What this means: since 10/9, implied spot is up about $0.30/lb and the SPUT units are down about 0.8%. Over the same period, CCJ is down 8.6%, UEC −14.8% and LEU −22.9%. Over that stretch, the equities have fallen and physical uranium hasn’t.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
LITE $822.51, −1.44%.
It opened at $816.77 (−2.1%) and fell to $785.00, its first trade below $800 since the drawdown began. That is 31.3% below its $1,143.00 record. It closed 4.8% above the low.
It closed at its lowest level since 8/11. YTD +123.2%.
AAOI $76.74, −1.87%.
It opened −4.3%. Range $73.05–$79.19. It closed 5.1% above its low. YTD +120.1%.
CRDO $171.51, −0.75%.
It opened −2.6% and fell to $161.00 before closing 6.5% above that. YTD +19.2%.
CIEN $341.95, −0.65%.
It opened −2.2%. It closed 3.9% above its low. Volume was light at 1.93M. YTD +46.2%.
GLW $132.26, −0.36%.
It opened −2.2% and fell to $127.56 before closing 3.7% above it. YTD +51.1%.
COHR $231.80, −0.09%.
It opened −3.1% and fell to $217.83 before closing 6.4% above it. It closed at its lowest level since 7/29. YTD +25.6%.
The pattern: the six names opened down about −2.8% on average and closed about +5.1% above their lows. Every name closed above its open. That is the reverse of Monday, when every name gapped up and faded.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −27.8% on average, against −20.6% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 10/20
Wed 10/21: META, TSLA, IBM, TXN (after the close). META’s capex guidance is the week’s main read on demand for AI power
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 27–28: FOMC. Market pricing favors a hold, with hikes priced for December and March
Oct 29: AMZN Q3
Oct 30: CCJ Q3
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. The 10/5 baseline is gone. For two weeks we’ve measured each name by how much of Tuesday 10/6’s gain it still keeps. As of today, none do. The ranking is BWXT ~−11%, CEG ~−27%, CCJ ~−125%, UEC ~−200%, LEU ~−254%, OKLO ~−329% and SMR ~−618%. The order is the same as Friday and Monday, and the groups have held for eleven sessions: owners and suppliers, then fuel, then developers. What changed is that every name is now below where it started. The market hasn’t just reversed the deal rally. It has pushed the whole complex below its pre-deal levels, by 15.2% on average for the basket.
ii. The broad rally didn’t help AI power. The Russell 2000 rose 1.65%, the Dow 1.02%, and the gains came from earnings, healthcare, defense and stocks that benefit from cheaper oil. Utilities rebounded. CEG still fell, for the second time in three sessions on a day XLU rose. Our read from Monday still holds: right now the market treats CEG and the nuclear basket as part of the AI-power trade, not as utilities. META on Wednesday is the first big-tech capex update since that trade sold off.
iii. The lows are coming on light volume. BWXT set its lowest close in a year on 0.6× its average volume. CCJ was at 0.8×, OKLO 0.8× and SMR 0.9×. Only LEU traded above average. Of the levels we flagged last Thursday, SMR’s $5.44 broke (to $5.33). UEC’s $7.27 and CCJ’s $78.55 still haven’t. For the second straight session, physical uranium (implied spot ~$90/lb) and the uranium equities moved in opposite directions.
Corrections
AAOI 10/19 open: it opened at $80.00 (+5.9%), not $79.81 (+5.6%). The optics average gap at Monday’s open becomes about +4.95%.
Other 10/19 revisions in the consolidated data: GLW’s low was $130.77, CRDO’s low $168.80 and CCJ’s high $82.50. The volumes we called preliminary in Edition 017 were revised slightly higher (CCJ 1.99M, SMR 17.4M). None of this changes the conclusions.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. “Basket vs 10/5” is the equal-weight average of each name’s change since its 10/5 close. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. CEG’s market value is scaled from its 10/12 reported cap. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
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