Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
SEQH Capital Research · Trading & Research Desk
Edition 004 · Wednesday, September 30, 2026 · Post-close · Q3 Final
Prices as of 4:00 PM ET close unless stamped otherwise.
The Tape in 60 Seconds
Inflation came in soft, but long-term yields didn’t budge. Meanwhile the NRC issued the second advanced-reactor construction permit in U.S. history.
August PCE came in below expectations on both headline and core, and traders pared back October hike bets. It didn’t help long bonds. The 10-year finished around 5.27–5.29% and the 30-year reached ~5.62%, its highest since 2002. The S&P 500 was up 0.58% at 11:37 AM and reversed to close −0.25% at 7,651.54, a 0.9% slide from the session high. The Dow fell 0.86% to 50,906.05, while the Nasdaq rose 0.24% to 26,861.06.
The biggest nuclear news was regulatory. The NRC issued TVA a construction permit for a GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 small modular reactor at Clinch River. It is the first U.S. permit for that design and only the second advanced-reactor construction permit the U.S. has ever issued. Our four-name basket of verified closes gained 0.13% vs. the S&P’s −0.25%. SPUT ended Q3 having traded at a discount to NAV in all 62 sessions of the quarter. Optics gave back ~2.7% ahead of Micron’s results, and then Micron beat and guided well above consensus after the bell.
Three takeaways:
Licensing is speeding up; financing is the new bottleneck. Clinch River’s permit came in ahead of schedule, about 16 months after the application. TVA still has no construction date.
The physical-vs-equity gap is now a full-quarter pattern. SPUT’s discount was 0-for-62 in Q3, and implied spot held at $89.58.
Soft inflation didn’t bring long yields down. PCE missed low by ~30 bp on the headline, yet the 30-year hit a 24-year high. For long-duration nuclear names, Friday’s jobs report is the next rate test.
Key numbers
Headline PCE (y/y): 3.4% vs. 3.7% expected · core 3.0%
US 30-year: ~5.62% · highest since 2002
U3O8 spot (SPUT-implied): $89.58/lb · 9/29 · flat
SPUT Q3 discount days: 62 of 62 (100%)
Nuclear basket (4 verified closes): +0.13% vs. S&P −0.25%
Micron fiscal Q1 revenue guide: ~$61.5B vs. ~$57B consensus
01 · Macro Tape
S&P 500: 7,651.54 · ▼ 0.25% · intraday high 7,722.88
Dow Jones: 50,906.05 · ▼ 443.87 (−0.86%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,861.06 · ▲ 0.24%
US 10-year yield: ~5.27–5.29% · rose despite the PCE miss
US 30-year yield: ~5.62% · highest since 2002
PCE (August):
Headline: +0.3% m/m vs. +0.4% expected; 3.4% y/y vs. 3.7% expected.
Core: +0.2% m/m, below forecasts; 3.0% y/y.
Result: October hike odds came down, but long-end yields didn’t follow.
September and Q3 scorecard:
September: S&P −0.5%, Dow −4.3%, Nasdaq +1.9%.
Q3: S&P +2.0%, Nasdaq +2.5%, Dow −2.7%.
Read: falling inflation that doesn’t lower long yields points to other drivers: deficits, oil at war-time levels, and investors demanding more to hold long bonds. That matters for our universe. Long-dated nuclear projects are valued off the 30-year curve, not the Fed funds rate, so a softer Fed alone won’t re-rate these names.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
Physical market: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U / SRUUF)
NAV per unit (9/29): $21.51 · flat (+0.01%)
Market price (9/29 close): $18.67, a −13.21% discount, 42 bp narrower than Monday’s −13.63%
U3O8 held: 81,697,348 lb, unchanged since 9/23
Uranium value at market: $7.318B
Implied $/lb at market price: ≈ $78.65, excluding cash
NAV YTD: +8.67%
Q3 discount scorecard: 0 premium days, 62 discount days. Q3 is the first period in Sprott’s disclosure table with zero premium sessions:
SPUT can only raise money and buy uranium when it trades at a premium. So for the entire quarter in which the long-term price hit a record $96, the largest financial buyer of physical uranium could not add a pound.
The curve. SPUT-implied spot has run $89.82 → $89.61 → $89.57 → $89.58 over four readings, a $0.24/lb range. The spot price has flattened out on its own, without the trust buying.
Equities (Wednesday close)
UEC: $9.45 · ▲ 1.72%. Range 9.19–9.88 on 13.5M shares, still ~1.5x average. Up 2.6% over the two sessions since results. Consensus price target slipped to $16.83 from $17.27 after the print, but the stock kept rising. It is 6.1% above its 52-week low. UEC still fell ~25% in September through Tuesday’s close (GuruFocus).
CCJ: $86.67 · ▼ 0.24%. It hit $89.92 (+3.5%) intraday, then gave it all back, closing within 7¢ of the $86.60 low on 3.07M shares. After-hours $87.50 (+0.96%). It is 35.9% below its 52-week high. At a $50B Westinghouse valuation, Cameco’s ~$24.5B stake equals about 65% of its $37.82B market cap.
LEU: $139.49 · ▲ 0.95%. Range 137.27–146.00, a 6.4% range. 30.1% below its $199.64 September offering price. Consensus target $247.40 (+77.4%).
Enrichment competition: General Matter submitted an NRC license application for a commercial uranium enrichment facility in Paducah, Kentucky (World Nuclear News, 9/29). That puts a second U.S. enrichment developer in the queue alongside Centrus. LEU still closed green, but the market is starting to price in competition for U.S. enrichment.
03 · Reactors, SMRs & Power
GEV · NRC issues TVA the first U.S. BWRX-300 construction permit (Clinch River Unit 1)
The permit: one 300 MW GE Vernova Hitachi BWRX-300 near Oak Ridge, Tenn. It is only the second advanced-reactor construction permit ever issued in the U.S.
Timing: TVA applied in spring 2025 and the NRC issued the permit ahead of schedule, about 16 months later.
Next steps: no construction date has been announced. TVA continues engineering with GE Vernova Hitachi, Sargent & Lundy and other partners.
Other BWRX-300 projects: Ontario Power Generation’s Darlington unit in Canada is under construction, with first power targeted by the end of 2030. Blue Energy filed the first part of a BWRX-300 construction permit application in September for its gas-plus-nuclear project in Texas.
Read: Clinch River was designed as a licensing path other utilities can reference. Each follow-on BWRX-300 application should move faster than the first. The constraint on U.S. SMR deployment is shifting from the NRC to utility final investment decisions (FIDs) and financing, and at a 5.6% 30-year yield, financing is the hard part.
Equities
BWXT: $137.00 · ▼ 0.73%. Range 134.12–140.05 on 1.43M shares. It held most of Tuesday’s +2.72% Investor Day gain (+2.0% over two days from the 52-week-low close). Market cap $12.55B, about 22.8x the midpoint of its 2030 free-cash-flow target ($525–575M). Backlog has doubled to $8.4B.
Street after Investor Day: BofA cut its target to $210 from $250 (Buy). Northland cut to $220 from $250 (Outperform). Both kept positive ratings while trimming targets, which is typical when targets reset to a lower share price.
OKLO: $37.02 · ▼ 0.24%. Range 36.77–38.55 on 8.14M shares (vs. 7.53M Tuesday). 7.7% above its 52-week low. Market cap $6.89B.
SMR: $7.92 · ▲ 2.06% · 3:29 PM ET print. Range 7.75–8.18 on 21.9M shares by mid-afternoon. It was on track for its first up day this week after closing at the day’s low on both Monday and Tuesday.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
Midday prints; closes not verified at publication.
LITE: ~$948.34 · ▼ ~2.6%
COHR: ~$284.49 · ▼ ~2.6%
AAOI: ~$97.97 · ▼ ~2.7%
GLW: ~$153.99 · ▼ ~3.0%
LYTE (Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF): ~$24.15 · ▼ ~2.0%
The four-name basket fell ~2.7% at midday, while the S&P was still positive and the Nasdaq closed +0.24%. That gave back about 60% of Tuesday’s ~4.4% rebound.
After the bell: Micron fiscal Q4 (MU)
Revenue: $54.23B vs. $50.45B expected, up about 4x year over year. Data center revenue also rose about 4x.
Adjusted EPS: $33.42 vs. $31.16.
Fiscal year 2026: revenue of $133.2B, up 256%.
Fiscal Q1 guidance: revenue of $61.5B ± $1.5B vs. ~$57B consensus, and EPS of $38.15 ± $1.00 vs. $35.40.
Gross margin guide: ~86.25%, slightly below the 86.4% consensus.
Stock: closed at $1,066.10 (+0.1%), then −0.78% after hours, as investors weighed heavy capital spending against the beat.
Read: optics sold off going into the print, which is typical positioning ahead of a major AI-hardware report. Micron’s guidance is the strongest signal this week that AI data-center spending is accelerating, not slowing: memory revenue guided ~8% above consensus a quarter ahead. That demand flows through to optical interconnect. Micron’s muted after-hours reaction is about its own capital spending, not demand. We expect optics to trade tomorrow on the guidance number, not on Micron’s stock move.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Thu 10/1: ISM manufacturing, the first Q4 data point (macro)
Fri 10/2: September jobs report, the next test for October hike odds (macro)
Oct (TBD): Westinghouse public IPO filing possible, per Bloomberg (CCJ, BEP)
Oct FOMC: hike odds pared after PCE
Fri 10/30: Cameco Q3 results (CCJ)
Early Nov (estimated): BWXT (~11/2), LEU (~11/4), SMR and LITE (~11/5), OKLO (~11/10)
06 · Desk Read: Q3 Close, What We’re Watching into Q4
i. The constraint on SMRs has moved from the NRC to financing. Clinch River shows regulatory timelines shortening: second-ever advanced-reactor permit, delivered ahead of schedule. But a permit without a construction date is a real option, not a project. The next value step comes when a utility commits to building (a final investment decision). At a 5.6% 30-year yield, the equity market is right to wait for it. We’d watch for TVA’s financing structure and Blue Energy’s full application.
ii. SPUT went 0-for-62 in Q3. For a full quarter, the largest buyer of physical uranium has been unable to buy. Spot has stabilized near $89.6 without it, and the long-term price set a record. The physical market is holding up with only utility contracting behind it. If SPUT’s discount closes, that buying capacity comes back all at once. That’s the asymmetry going into Q4.
iii. Soft inflation isn’t bringing yields down. A 30 bp PCE miss and a 24-year high on the 30-year in the same session means the long end is driven by something other than inflation: deficits, oil and the extra return investors demand for long bonds. Our cash-generating names (BWXT, CCJ) have steadied; the pre-revenue developers have not. Friday’s jobs report is the next test.
Method
SPUT-implied spot = market value of U3O8 held ÷ pounds held.
$/lb at market = unit price ÷ pounds per unit (0.2374 lb), excluding cash.
Baskets are equal-weighted simple averages of verified closes. Today’s nuclear basket is CCJ, UEC, OKLO and BWXT; SMR is excluded because its close wasn’t verified. The photonics basket is LITE, COHR, AAOI and GLW (midday prints).
Where a close was not verified at publication, the line shows the last verified print with its stamp.
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures come from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; verify before acting. Past performance does not indicate future results.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Thursday 10/1, post-close