Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 031 · Monday, November 9, 2026 · Post-close
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
The rebound continued. The nuclear basket rose +9.11% after Friday’s +10.80% and is up +20.9% in two sessions. That takes it roughly back to where it closed on 10/30, before last week’s selloff. CEG rose +10.53% on its Q3 results. Adjusted EPS was $5.06 against $3.04 a year ago, it raised the midpoint of 2026 guidance, and it disclosed a conditional DOE loan commitment of up to $5B. CEG is now the only tracked name back above its 10/5 pre-Google-deal close. Optics rose +10.42% and the SOX +6.96%, even as NVDA fell −4.1% on a board investigation.
The broad market rose with it: S&P +2.42%, Dow +2.19% (+1,123 points) and Russell 2000 +3.44%. Oil fell about 3% to roughly $87, and the VIX dropped −22% to 19.90. Utilities rose to their highest close since August (XLU +1.65%). Power generators kept climbing: NRG +10.6% after announcing a $4B sale of six gas plants, VST +7.3%.
NVDA fell after its board opened a review into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. The board said it has no reason to believe company secrets or national security were harmed. The stock closed at its lowest level since April and is now −4.1% YTD.
Three takeaways
CEG’s quarter showed that its AI power demand is already under contract. Those contracts are:
Amazon: 690 MW for 20 years at Calvert Cliffs.
Google: about 890 MW of uprates for 20 years, plus a separate 15-year, 2,700 MW load-following agreement.
A 270 MW, 20-year deal starting 2028.
It also has up to $5B in conditional DOE loans for uprates. The stock rose 10.5% and is +3.2% above its 10/5 close.
Thursday’s lows are now well behind us. No retest yet. Since Thursday’s lows: OKLO +45%, LEU +38%, SMR +27%, UEC +25%, CCJ +14%, BWXT +14%. The basket is still −18.2% below its 10/5 close.
The ranking held for a twenty-fifth session, and LEU moved past CCJ. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: CEG ~+26%, BWXT ~−69%, LEU ~−195%, CCJ ~−218%, UEC ~−220%, OKLO ~−351%, SMR ~−654%.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket +9.11% today, +20.9% over two days · S&P +2.42%
CEG +10.53% · LEU +12.04% · OKLO +14.29% · UEC +10.91%
CEG Q3: adjusted EPS $5.06 (was $3.04). 2026 guidance $12.50–12.80, midpoint raised. DOE loan commitment of up to $5.0B
Optics +10.42% · SOX +6.96% · NVDA −4.09%
SPUT discount −16.05% (Friday data). Today’s estimate is about −14.8%
VIX 19.90 (−22%) · 10-yr 4.86% · WTI about $87
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,408 (+2.19%)
S&P 500 7,555 (+2.42%)
Nasdaq Composite 25,273 (+2.82%)
Russell 2000 2,849 (+3.44%)
Chips:
The SOX rose +6.96%. AMD rose about 12%, AVGO about 8% and MU +6.28%. Taiwan’s TAIEX rose 4.9%.
NVDA fell −4.09% to $179.00 on 3.6× average volume, its lowest close since 4/7. The drop followed the board’s review of reports that the CEO was the target of a foreign intelligence effort. NVDA reports Q3 on 11/17.
Oil: WTI fell about −3% to roughly $87.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 4.86%, flat.
Volatility: VIX closed at 19.90 (−22.4%).
Power:
XLU rose +1.65% to its highest close since 8/19.
NRG rose +10.6% after announcing a $4B sale of six gas plants.
VST rose +7.3%. Fervo Energy rose about 23% on a geothermal deal with Google.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
CEG $276.26, +10.53%.
Range $247.00–$277.66. It traded as low as −1.2% before rallying to close near its high. Volume was about 1.3× its 50-day average. YTD −21.8%.
It closed at its highest level since 10/14, and is 3.2% above its 10/5 close.
Q3 results:
GAAP EPS was $5.19 and adjusted EPS $5.06, against $3.04 a year ago. There are 354M diluted shares after the Calpine deal.
2026 adjusted EPS guidance was narrowed to $12.50–12.80, raising the midpoint for the second time this year.
Its nuclear fleet ran at a 97.2% capacity factor.
Contracts:
Amazon: a 20-year, 690 MW PPA at Calvert Cliffs, plus a 190 MW expansion planned for 2030–32.
Google: a 20-year deal covering about 890 MW of uprates across 11 units (the first uprate in 2028), plus a separate 15-year, 2,700 MW load-following agreement.
Another 20-year, 270 MW deal starting in 2028 with an unnamed customer.
A conditional DOE loan commitment of up to $5.0B for uprates: 30 years, at Treasuries + 0.375%.
It agreed to buy a 609 MW gas plant in Rhode Island for $715M.
OKLO $26.92, +14.29%.
Range $22.73–$27.72. Volume was about 1.7× average. YTD −62.5%.
It is +45.3% from Thursday’s low.
BWXT $128.19, +7.25%.
It is 5.3% below its 10/5 close. YTD −25.9%.
SMR $5.46, +7.38%. YTD −61.5%.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $117.19, +12.04%.
It reached $118.23 intraday and closed at its highest level since 10/15. It is +38.1% from Thursday’s low and back above $115.
YTD −51.8%.
UEC $7.68, +10.91%. It is +25.4% from Thursday’s low. YTD −34.3%.
CCJ $75.37, +5.71%. It is +14.1% from Thursday’s low. YTD −17.7%.
URA $34.39, +6.34%. YTD −19.5%.
SPUT
Friday 11/6 print:
NAV $22.05 (−0.05%). Discount −16.05%, matching our −16.1% estimate.
Implied spot about $91.88/lb.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +1.51% to $18.79. If NAV held at $22.05, the discount would be about −14.8%(our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.15/lb.
What this means: the uranium equities are up 11–38% from Thursday’s lows, while SPUT units are up only about 2%. The vehicle that holds physical uranium is lagging the equity rebound. That’s the reverse of the 10/27 rebound, when the vehicle led.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
COHR $224.58, +16.47%. Volume was about 1.8× average. YTD +21.7%.
CIEN $270.28, +11.05%. YTD +15.6%.
LITE $597.45, +10.93%.
YTD +62.0%.
Deal spread: 4.5 × MRVL’s $154.19 close = $693.86 of implied value. LITE closed 16.1% below that, narrower than Friday’s 18.0%.
CRDO $133.09, +10.44%. YTD −7.6%.
GLW $116.06, +9.36%. YTD +32.3%.
AAOI $52.27, +4.27%. YTD +49.7%.
MRVL $154.19, +9.20%.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Tonight: SPUT print for 11/9
Earnings in our coverage: with CEG out, all six companies have now reported (CCJ, BWXT, LEU, SMR, OKLO, CEG). GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Tue 11/17: NVDA Q3
Levels to watch: Thursday’s lows (OKLO $18.53, SMR $4.28, LEU $84.86, CCJ $66.06, UEC $6.12, BWXT $112.55)
Dec FOMC: after last week’s jobs report, a hike is still a possibility
06 · Desk Read
i. CEG’s quarter answered last week’s policy scare with signed contracts. After the election, the market treated AI power demand as at risk from data-center permitting. CEG’s demand is already under contract: 20-year deals with Amazon and Google, a 2,700 MW load-following agreement, and a third 20-year deal. Its uprates come with up to $5B of conditional federal financing. The stock rose 10.5% and is the only tracked name back above its pre-Google-deal close. The market is paying for contracted, financed revenue.
ii. The basket is back where it started last week. Two sessions of +10.8% and +9.1% bring the basket back to about its 10/30 close. Last week’s −8.2% is erased. The washout-and-rebound pattern we described on Friday is holding, but there hasn’t been a retest yet. Thursday’s lows are now 14–45% below current prices. A pullback that holds well above them would add confirmation. A fast slide back toward them would undo it.
iii. Physical uranium hasn’t followed the equities back up. SPUT’s discount was −16.05% officially on Friday and is about −14.8% today (estimate), still near the record. NAV is flat at $22.05. On 10/27 the vehicle and physical uranium led the equities higher. This time the equities led and the vehicle lagged. That’s the gap to watch: either the SPUT units catch up, or the equity bounce fades back toward them.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. Today’s prices were pulled at about 3:57pm ET and may differ from the final closes by a few cents. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Deal spread = (4.5 × MRVL close) ÷ LITE close − 1. Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. YTD figures use the 12/31/2025 close as the base. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Tuesday 11/10, post-close