Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
SEQH Capital Research · Trading & Research Desk
Edition 010 · Thursday, October 8, 2026 · Post-close
Prices as of 4:00 PM ET close unless stamped otherwise.
The Tape in 60 Seconds
OKLO and SMR printed new 52-week lows, and two days of selling have ranked the nuclear sector by business model.
The 10-year briefly crossed 5.35% again before a solid 30-year auction pulled it down to ~5.23% at the close. Fed Governor Waller said more rate hikes are needed. A Financial Times report questioning OpenAI’s revenue hit the AI trade, and the Nasdaq fell 1.25% to 27,193.34. The S&P 500 lost 0.47% to 7,765.36, while the Dow rose 0.10%. Energy led the S&P’s sectors and utilities lagged.
Our five-name nuclear basket fell another 3.17%. Since Tuesday’s close it’s down 7.47%, and week-to-date it’s −0.63% vs. +0.55% for the S&P.
The sector has now sorted itself the way we’ve been describing since Edition 006. Through two sessions, BWXT has kept 66% of Tuesday’s gain and Constellation 53%. The fuel names have given back about all of theirs, and the developers have given back more than they gained: OKLO hit a 52-week low of $33.70 and SMR $7.17.
Three takeaways:
The ranking held on day two. Reactor supply chain and reactor owner at the top, fuel in the middle, developers at the bottom at new lows. The longer the hold period, the cleaner the ranking by business model.
SPUT kept nearly half of Tuesday’s progress. The discount widened to −9.95% on Wednesday but kept 45% of Tuesday’s 345 bp narrowing. The trust’s price fell 1.97% while the equity basket fell 4.46%.
CEG reversed hard. It hit a post-deal high of $306.99 intraday, then fell 7.1% from that peak to close −4.85% on a weak day for utilities. The deal’s value hasn’t changed; the multiple paid for it did.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket (5 names): −3.17% vs. S&P −0.47% · two days −7.47%
New 52-week lows: OKLO $33.70 · SMR $7.17
SPUT discount: −9.95% (10/7) · kept 45% of Tuesday’s narrowing
US 10-year: crossed 5.35% intraday · ~5.23% close
Nasdaq: −1.25% on the FT report on OpenAI’s revenue
CEG: −4.85% · fell 7.1% from its intraday high
01 · Macro Tape
S&P 500: 7,765.36 · ▼ 0.47%
Dow Jones: 51,231.70 · ▲ 51.83 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq Composite: 27,193.34 · ▼ 345.35 (−1.25%)
US 10-year: briefly above 5.35% · ~5.23% close
US 2-year: ~4.79%
Gold: $4,158.90 · ▲ 0.44%
Sectors: energy led; utilities lagged
What moved it:
Rates. Fed Governor Waller said more rate hikes are needed. A solid 30-year Treasury auction pulled yields off their highs.
AI. A Financial Times report questioning OpenAI’s revenue hit semiconductor and AI names.
Oil. Crude jumped, then pared gains after President Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the midterm elections.
Read: two things hit our sectors on the same day. The AI-revenue question landed on the demand story that drives both optics and nuclear power deals. Meanwhile rate pressure landed on the long-duration names. Utilities lagging the S&P put CEG’s drop in context: it fell with its sector, not on deal-specific news.
02 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
Retention scorecard, day two: share of Tuesday’s gain kept through Thursday’s close
BWXT: $142.22 · ▲ 0.48% · kept 66% (up from 60% Wednesday). It was the only name in our basket to close up today. It hit $146.59 intraday (+3.6%) before fading. Volume 1.41M shares; market cap $13.03B.
CEG: $285.07 · ▼ 4.85% · kept 53% (down from 98%). Range 280.16–306.99: it set a post-deal high, then fell 7.1% to the close. Volume 6.36M shares. Market cap $101.0B.
LEU: $142.09 · ▼ 3.43% · kept 5% (see Section 03).
CCJ: $87.12 · ▼ 2.19% · kept −6%, now below Monday’s close (see Section 03).
UEC: $9.14 · ▼ 3.48% · kept −28% (see Section 03).
OKLO: $34.57 · ▼ 6.11% · kept −54%. New 52-week low of $33.70 (prior $34.38). Volume 16.3M shares, 1.8x Wednesday. Market cap $6.43B, down 82.2% from its 52-week high.
SMR: $7.32 · ▼ 4.56% · kept −106%. New 52-week low of $7.17 (prior $7.21). Volume 43.2M shares, the third session in a row above 38M. Market cap $3.15B, down 87.3% from its 52-week high.
Read: after one day, the ranking had a messy middle. After two, it’s clean:
The supply chain (BWXT, 66%), with a backlog and 2030 targets.
The reactor owner (CEG, 53%), which is receiving the cash.
Fuel (LEU, CCJ, UEC: about 5% to −28%), where demand arrives later this decade.
The developers (OKLO, SMR: −54% and −106%), at new lows.
The developers’ volume is the point to watch. SMR has traded 38–44M shares for three straight sessions, about twice its early-October pace, and closed lower on two of them. That’s heavy, sustained selling, not sellers running out.
03 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
Physical market: Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U / SRUUF)
Market price (10/7 close): $19.40 · ▼ 1.97%
NAV per unit (10/7): $21.54 · ▲ 0.11%
Discount: −9.95%, 191 bp wider than Tuesday’s −8.04% but still narrower than any reading before 10/6
Discount path: −13.63% (9/28) → … → −11.49% (10/5) → −8.04% (10/6) → −9.95% (10/7)
SPUT-implied spot: $89.72/lb · ▲ $0.10
Implied $/lb at market price: ≈ $81.73, excluding cash
U3O8 held: 81,697,348 lb, unchanged
NAV YTD: +8.83%
Sprott’s September performance data (published this week):
Spot uranium: +0.05% for the month.
SPUT NAV: 0.00%.
SPUT market price: −6.96%.
Year to date through 9/30: NAV +8.69% vs. market price −4.10%, a 12.8-percentage-point gap between owning the uranium and owning the trust.
Read: yesterday’s test was whether SPUT’s discount would hold near −8% while uranium equities fell. It held partway. The trust gave back 191 bp of Tuesday’s 345 bp narrowing, keeping 45%. Its price fell 1.97% vs. the equity basket’s 4.46%. Physical demand is holding up better than equity demand, but not fully. The September data shows how big the gap has been: spot uranium was flat for the month while the trust’s price fell 7%. That’s investors selling the vehicle, not the uranium market weakening.
Equities (Thursday close)
CCJ: $87.12 · ▼ 2.19%. Range 85.80–88.98 on 3.43M shares. Now 0.4% below Monday’s pre-deal close. Market cap $37.93B. At a $50B Westinghouse valuation, Cameco’s ~$24.5B stake is about 65% of its market cap.
LEU: $142.09 · ▼ 3.43%. Range 138.78–146.78 on 904K shares. The intraday low was 2.2% above its 52-week low of $135.75. Still 28.8% below its $199.64 September offering price. Market cap $2.91B.
UEC: $9.14 · ▼ 3.48%. Range 9.00–9.49 on 7.87M shares. The intraday low of $9.00 was within 1% of its 52-week low of $8.91. Market cap $4.53B.
Read: the fuel names have now given back all of Tuesday’s gains: CCJ and UEC are below their Monday closes. The ~$11.5B of existing-reactor commitments from the past eight days has been fully priced out of the fuel stocks within 48 hours. Spot uranium hasn’t moved at any point. The equities rallied on future fuel demand and then sold off on rates. Physical uranium didn’t react either way.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
Closes for LITE, COHR, AAOI and CRDO were not verified for Tuesday through Thursday at publication. Last verified close: LITE $1,091.67 on Monday 10/5.
Read: today’s FT report questioning OpenAI’s revenue hit semiconductors, and the Nasdaq fell 1.25%. This is the same demand question behind both optics orders and nuclear power deals, since both depend on AI data-center buildouts.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Fri 10/9: SPUT’s 10/8 print, to see whether the discount holds under −10%
TBD: details of the DOE–Vistra loan (VST)
TBD: BWXT–Prodigy definitive agreement (BWXT)
TBD: formal signing of the U.S.–Korea framework (CCJ, BEP)
Oct (TBD): possible Westinghouse public IPO filing (CCJ, BEP)
Oct (before FOMC): September CPI
Oct 20–21: World Nuclear Supply Chain conference, Manila
Tue–Wed 10/27–28: FOMC meeting; decision Wednesday 10/28
Fri 10/30: Cameco Q3 results (CCJ)
Mon 11/2, after close: BWX Technologies Q3 results (BWXT)
~Wed 11/4: Centrus Q3 results (LEU)
Thu 11/5: Lumentum fiscal Q1 results; NuScale Q3 call, 5:00 PM ET
~Fri 11/6: Constellation Q3 results (estimated) (CEG); October jobs report
~Tue 11/10: Oklo Q3 results (OKLO)
06 · Desk Read: What We’re Watching
i. Two days is a better test than one. On Wednesday the retention ranking had a messy middle. On Thursday it lined up with business models: supply chain 66%, reactor owner 53%, fuel 5% to −28%, developers −54% to −106%. In a week of rising yields, the market is paying for cash flow and contracted backlog and selling everything else. We’ll carry this scorecard into Friday’s week-in-review.
ii. Developers at new lows on heavy volume is a different signal from earlier in the month. On 10/5 we noted SMR’s volume falling to a seven-session low near its lows, which can mean sellers are running out. This week is the opposite: 38–44M shares a day for three days, with lower closes on two of them and a new low today. OKLO joined SMR at a new low on 16.3M shares. We’d treat any rebound in the developers as a sentiment trade until either company announces a binding customer contract.
iii. SPUT’s discount is now the best gauge of underlying interest in uranium. It moved from −11.49% to −8.04% to −9.95% over three sessions while the equity basket rose 6.75% and then fell 7.47%. The vehicle swung far less than the stocks. Holding under −10% through a down week for equities would suggest steady physical demand that equity volatility isn’t shaking out. Tomorrow’s print is the next data point.
Method
SPUT-implied spot = market value of U3O8 held ÷ pounds held.
$/lb at market = unit price ÷ pounds per unit (0.2374 lb), excluding cash.
Baskets are equal-weighted simple averages of verified closes. The nuclear basket is CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. Week-to-date runs from the 10/2 close; “two days” runs from the 10/6 close.
Retention = (Thursday close − Monday close) ÷ (Tuesday close − Monday close). 100% means the full Tuesday gain was kept; a negative number means the stock gave back more than it gained. For SPUT, retention is measured on the discount: bp of narrowing kept ÷ bp narrowed on 10/6.
Sprott’s September and YTD performance figures are as published by Sprott (as of 9/30).
Where a close was not verified at publication, the line says so.
For informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures come from third-party sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed; verify before acting. Past performance does not indicate future results.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Friday 10/9, post-close (Week in Review)