Nuclear, Uranium & Photonics Daily
Edition 016 · Friday, October 16, 2026 · Post-close · Week in Review
SEQH Capital Research
The Tape in 60 Seconds
Thursday’s bounce didn’t last. The five-name nuclear basket fell −3.47% and optics fell −6.38% as worries about AI debt sent the Nasdaq down −2.14% and the VIX up 21% to 19.99. Two things broke from the week’s pattern. The quality ranking changed for the first time since the 10/6 spike: BWXT moved ahead of CEG, and UEC moved ahead of LEU. And SPUT units rose +2.40% while every uranium equity fell.
The selloff was concentrated in AI. CoreWeave fell −11.9% and Nebius −12.2%. The SOX fell −3.83%, its eighth straight decline, and software (IGV) fell −4.80%. The S&P (−1.09%) closed at its lowest level since 9/30 and the Russell 2000 (−1.66%) at its lowest since April. Energy (+2.52%) and utilities (+1.34%) led as WTI rose for a seventh day to $101.71. The 10-yr was roughly flat at 5.10%, so unlike Wednesday, this wasn’t driven by rates.
In the nuclear basket, the result of Thursday’s test was mixed. No name closed below Thursday’s low. UEC, OKLO and SMR held above Thursday’s opening prices, though OKLO by just 9 cents. LEU did not: it fell −9.50%, traded below Thursday’s low intraday, and closed at its lowest level in a year. CEG fell −1.32% on a day utilities rose 1.34%, so it underperformed its sector by about 266bp.
Three takeaways
The ranking changed. Share of Tuesday 10/6’s gain each stock still keeps: BWXT ~16%, CEG ~11%, CCJ ~−107%, UEC ~−189%, LEU ~−213%, OKLO ~−310%, SMR ~−544%. The broader groups still hold: owners and suppliers at the top, fuel in the middle, developers at the bottom.
The physical vehicle held while the equities fell. The SPUT discount narrowed from −15.51% (Wednesday) to −14.86% (Thursday), and to about −12.8% today (our estimate). For the week, SPUT units fell −1.2% while CCJ fell −7.4%, UEC −13.9% and LEU −19.3%.
Optics fell more than nuclear for the week. The six optics names fell −24.2% and the nuclear basket −13.0%. AAOI closed at its lowest level since February, and LITE is 27.9% below its 10/9 record.
Key numbers
Nuclear basket −3.47% today, −12.99% for the week · S&P −1.09% today, −1.95% for the week
Optics, six names −6.38% today, −24.2% for the week
Lowest closes in a year: LEU $114.94 · OKLO $27.97 · URA $35.43. SMR’s $5.83 ties its lowest close (10/14)
VIX 19.99 (+21.4%), highest close since 7/29. Intraday high 22.31
SPUT discount −14.86% (Thursday data). Today, about −12.8% (our estimate)
LEU is 42.4% below its $199.64 offering price
01 · Macro Tape
Dow 52,002.41, −175.28 (−0.34%)
S&P 500 7,659.44, −84.62 (−1.09%), its lowest close since 9/30
Nasdaq Composite 26,140.03, −573.00 (−2.14%), its lowest close since 9/16
Russell 2000 2,721.37, −45.90 (−1.66%), its lowest close since 4/16
Breadth: the Nasdaq 100 fell −2.50%, while the equal-weight S&P fell only −0.42%. The losses were concentrated in large tech.
AI and chips:
CoreWeave −11.91%, Nebius −12.18%, AMD −5.95%, INTC −5.79%, MU −5.63% (to $878.84), AVGO −4.52%, TSM −2.28% (to $412.61), NVDA −1.43% (to $214.13).
The SOX fell −3.83%, its eighth straight decline. The software ETF (IGV) fell −4.80%.
The concern being discussed is whether AI revenue can cover the capital spending and debt behind the buildout.
Sectors: energy +2.52%, utilities +1.34%, staples +1.08%. Communication services −1.89%, tech −3.03%.
Rates: the 10-yr closed at 5.10%, about flat; one source showed 5.09% (−1bp). The 2-yr was about 4.74%.
Fed: Fed Chair Warsh didn’t signal the October decision. The FOMC meets Oct 27–28.
Volatility: VIX closed at 19.99, up 21.4% from 16.46. Its intraday high was 22.31.
Oil: WTI (November) closed $101.71 (+3.82%), its seventh straight gain. Brent was $109.88 (+3.74%). Attacks on tankers are keeping a supply-risk premium in crude.
Data: initial jobless claims were 199K and continuing claims 1.71M.
02 · Uranium & Fuel Cycle
LEU $114.94, −9.50%.
It opened at $123.65 and fell to a new 52-week low of $112.61, below Thursday’s $112.78. It closed 7.04% below its open, at its lowest level in a year.
Volume was 1.18M, about 1.6× its 50-day average. YTD −52.7%.
It gave back all of Thursday’s +5.89% and more. It is now 42.4% below the $199.64 offering price, and −19.3% for the week.
UEC $7.91, −3.18%.
Range $7.79–$8.28. It closed 1.5% above its low and held above Thursday’s $7.50 open.
Volume was 8.49M, about 0.9× average and the lightest of the week. YTD −32.3%.
CCJ $81.52, −2.05%.
Range $80.45–$83.93. Volume was 2.89M, about 1.0× average. YTD −10.9%.
It closed 5 cents above Wednesday’s close ($81.47), which was its lowest close since November 2025.
URA $35.43, −1.91%. This was its lowest close in a year. YTD −17.1%.
SPUT
Thursday 10/15 print:
NAV $21.58 (+0.11%). Price $18.37. Discount −14.86%, narrower by 65bp. That matches the −14.8% we estimated in Edition 015.
Implied spot about $89.87/lb, the highest reading of the week.
Today the units (TSX: U.U) rose +2.40% to $18.81, while every uranium equity we track fell. If NAV held at $21.58, the discount would be about −12.8% (our estimate). At today’s price, the vehicle values U3O8 at about $79.23/lb.
What this means: the selling this week was in the equities, not in the physical market. Implied spot rose slightly from $89.72 to $89.87, and the discount has narrowed for two sessions after hitting −15.51%.
03 · Reactors, Utilities & Power
OKLO $27.97, −6.80%.
It opened at $29.40 and closed 4.86% below that, at its lowest level in a year. Its intraday low ($27.59) stayed above Thursday’s $27.52.
Volume was 9.46M, about 0.9× average. YTD −61.0%.
It closed 9 cents above Thursday’s $27.88 open. It is −27.5% since 10/6.
SMR $5.83, −5.20%.
Range $5.76–$6.20. It closed exactly at Wednesday’s level, which ties its lowest close in a year.
Volume was 23.4M, about 0.66× average and the lightest of the run. YTD −58.9%.
It is −27.3% since 10/6.
CEG $271.37, −1.32%.
Range $269.32–$276.18. It closed at its lowest level since 10/5, just 1.4% above its pre-Google close of $267.62.
YTD −23.2%. For the week, −9.0%.
It fell while the utilities sector (XLU) rose 1.34%. It is trading with the AI-power stocks rather than with other utilities.
BWXT $137.01, −0.14%.
Range $135.04–$139.70. It closed almost exactly at its open ($136.91).
Volume was 1.25M, about 1.1× average. YTD −20.7%.
It was the best performer of the tracked nuclear names today and for the week (−4.7%). It is now first in the ranking.
04 · Photonics & Optical Interconnect
AAOI $75.57, −9.75%.
Its low was $75.43, so it closed at the low. This was its lowest close since 2/26.
YTD +116.8%. Since 10/6, −41.9%.
COHR $232.90, −7.06%.
It closed at its lowest level since 7/29. YTD +26.2%. Since 10/6, −31.2%.
CIEN $332.73, −6.67%.
It closed at its lowest level since 9/14. YTD +42.3%. Since 10/6, −25.0%.
LITE $824.13, −5.22%.
It closed $2.13 above its low ($822.00), at its lowest level since 8/11.
It is 27.9% below its 10/9 intraday record of $1,143.00. YTD +123.6%.
CRDO $169.70, −4.93%.
It closed at its lowest level since 9/17. YTD +17.9%.
GLW $132.00, −4.64%.
It closed at its lowest level since 7/29. YTD +50.8%.
The pattern: every optics name closed within 0.7% of its low. Thursday’s 4–10% recovery from the lows didn’t carry into Friday.
Since 10/6: the six names are down −28.4% on average, against −19.0% for the nuclear basket.
05 · Catalyst Calendar
Mon 10/19: 39th anniversary of the 1987 crash, with the VIX near 20
Late Oct: GLW Q3 (date unconfirmed)
Oct 27–28: FOMC. This is the first meeting with both the hot CPI and PPI reports in hand
Oct 30: CCJ Q3
Nov 2: BWXT Q3
~Nov 4: LEU Q3
Nov 5: LITE Q1 FY27 · SMR Q3
Nov 6: October jobs report
~Nov 9: CEG Q3
~Nov 10: OKLO Q3
06 · Desk Read
i. Thursday’s bounce was neither confirmed nor broken. In Edition 015 we said follow-through would mean holding above Thursday’s opens, and a failure would mean closing below Thursday’s lows.
UEC, SMR and OKLO held above Thursday’s opens. OKLO cleared it by only 9 cents.
LEU closed below its open, and it traded below Thursday’s low intraday.
No name closed below Thursday’s low.
Volume was light in the developers (SMR 0.66× its average, OKLO and UEC about 0.9×). Prices fell, but fewer shares changed hands than on the high-volume days earlier in the week. LEU was the exception at 1.6×.
ii. The ranking moved for the first time in eight sessions. BWXT passed CEG at the top, and UEC passed LEU in the middle. The groups held: owners and suppliers first, fuel second, developers last. CEG matters most here. It fell on a day utilities rose 1.3%, and it is now 1.4% above its pre-Google close. The market no longer treats it as a defensive utility; it trades with the rest of the AI-power complex. BWXT, a supplier with a backlog and almost no AI-power premium in the stock, held up best on Friday and for the week.
iii. The week’s biggest divergence was between physical uranium and the equities. Implied spot rose slightly over the week. SPUT units fell only −1.2% for the week, and rose 2.4% today. The discount went from −11.62% to −15.51% and back to about −12.8%. Meanwhile the equities fell 7–19%. Physical uranium didn’t sell off. What sold off was the premium investors pay to own uranium through equities, and the AI-power story built on top of it. Next week we’ll see whether the narrowing in SPUT’s discount spreads to the equities, or whether it reverses.
07 · Week in Review (10/12–10/16)
What happened each day
Mon 10/12: basket −4.60%, optics −8.17%. Broadcom CEO Hock Tan’s remark that AI investing resembles “a casino” hit optics. UEC, LEU, OKLO and SMR set their first new lows of the week.
Tue 10/13: basket −2.37%, optics −0.75%. Memory stocks sold off in Korea after CXMT’s memory-cell announcement. Optics fell at the open and was bought back; nuclear wasn’t.
Wed 10/14: basket −6.79%, optics −9.21%. September CPI was hot (3.7% y/y). The 10-yr hit 5.33% intraday. Everything closed at its low.
Thu 10/15: basket +3.83%, optics −2.29%. PPI was 6.3% y/y, but the 10-yr fell 10bp. Every nuclear name set new lows and then reversed, finishing on average about 9% above its low.
Fri 10/16: basket −3.47%, optics −6.38%. AI-debt worries pushed the VIX to about 20. The ranking changed and SPUT units rose.
The week, from Friday 10/9 to today
Indices: Dow +0.67% · S&P −1.95% · Nasdaq −4.48% · Russell 2000 −3.05%
Rates: 10-yr 5.24% → 5.10% (−14bp). The week’s range was 5.04–5.33%.
Volatility: VIX 14.84 → 19.99 (+34.7%)
Nuclear basket: −12.99%, compounding the daily moves
Nuclear names: OKLO −19.4% · LEU −19.3% · SMR −19.0% · UEC −13.9% · CEG −9.0% · URA −8.9% · CCJ −7.4% · BWXT −4.7%
Optics: −24.3% on average, compounding the daily moves. AAOI −31.1% · CIEN −26.0% · COHR −25.5% · LITE −25.3% · CRDO −21.6% · GLW −15.8%
AI benchmarks: MU −14.6% · TSM −9.0% · NVDA −6.6%
SPUT units: −1.2%. The discount went from −11.62% to about −12.8% (estimate), after hitting −15.51% on Wednesday.
What we learned this week
The developers trade as the most rate-sensitive names we track. On the CPI spike they fell 8–10%. On the 10bp rate drop they rose 3–6%.
CEG gave back nearly all of the Google-deal premium in eight sessions.
The quality ranking held for seven sessions and then changed at the top, with BWXT passing CEG.
At the start of the week, optics and nuclear moved together. By Friday optics had fallen nearly twice as much (−24% against −13%).
Physical uranium was the steadiest part of the complex.
Corrections
AAOI 10/15 open: it opened at $80.91, a −6.16% gap, not $81.12 (−5.9%).
Other 10/15 revisions in the consolidated data: OKLO’s high was $30.13, so it closed 12 cents below the high, not 11. CCJ’s high was $83.69 and COHR’s $252.28. None of these changes the conclusions.
Method
All prices are official closes unless marked otherwise. The nuclear basket is an equal-weight average of the daily % changes in CCJ, UEC, OKLO, SMR and BWXT. Weekly basket and optics figures compound the daily moves. LEU and CEG are tracked but excluded from the basket. The optics average is an equal-weight average of LITE, COHR, AAOI, CRDO, CIEN and GLW. Retention = (current close − 10/5 close) ÷ (10/6 close − 10/5 close). Volume multiples are measured against the 50-day average. “Lowest close since” and YTD figures use daily closes over the trailing year; the YTD base is the 12/31/2025 close. SPUT implied spot = market value of U3O8 ÷ pounds held. SPUT $/lb at market = unit price ÷ 0.2374 lb per unit. Estimates are marked as such. SEQH does not publish ratings or price targets, and this newsletter does not reproduce third-party ratings or targets.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. SEQH Capital Research does not issue ratings or price targets. Data is drawn from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Do your own research.
© 2026 SEQH Capital Research · Next edition: Monday 10/19, post-close